Story seems to be ex-UKIP voters splitting 2:1 to Labour.
I mentioned this very specifically here, a couple of weeks ago, about how the UKIP-to-Labour figure was strikingly high compared to Tory-Lab traffic, in that particular poll there.
Corbyn appeal to flat-cap UKIP + predominant refighting of Brexit in the opposite direction, exaggerating all the Remain trends for Labour = goodnight Lynton and Teresa.
Northampton South must be in danger too. The previous Conservative MP stood down over a local financing scandal and the new candidate was parachuted in from Derbyshire.
Shed a tear for people who tweeted sarcastically about YouGov. Although YouGov utterly fucked up by their last minute poll adjustment to their final poll
Putting undecideds back to their 2015 vote when so many of them were ukip voters pondering where to go was always dumb. I said as much this morning.
Something tells me Clegg will be happy if LD > 10 and he loses his seat. He finally gets to take the retirement with his lovely wife, that would have shafted his party when they were on 8.
I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.
What a mess.
Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
Yebbut Dave called the referendum, thinking he would win. Just like Theresa did with this year's election.
I feel sorry for both Cameron and May, both capable politicians, both backed Remain both screwed by the current volatility and mood of the electorate, ie anti austerity, anti globalisation, anti immigration etc
No need to feel sorry for either of them.
Cameron backed himself into a corner willingly. May is just completely crap.
A lot less 'this exit poll is bollocks' stuff now I see.
It is bollocks, but not necessarily to the Conservative's advantage...
Quite - if Labour hold onto seats in Wales, well, and if they win a few less from the SNP than hoped and Labour a few more, and you have very close numbers and no allies in the Commons for Tories other than DUP, while Labour will have SNP and LD.
If Amber Rudd gets decapitated in Hastings that is fascinating. 5k conservative majority. 55% Brexit. Notwithstanding the labour council, large parts of the parliamentatery constituency are tory voting rural shires. The 2015 labour candidate did not stand because I think she thought it was a hopeless case. Large parts of Hastings are white working class and retired people from places like Tonbridge living in bungalows in suburbs. Labour struggled to actually even find a credible candidate. Tories made no effort at all here, must have thought it was in the bag, guess they put all their efforts in to Eastbourne, Lewes, etc. No one will miss Amber Rudd, she didn't fit in.
Nicholas Wilson standing on an anti corruption HSBC ticket there I believe did huge damage. There are YouTube clips of the hustings. The moderator stepped in to save Rudd when the questioning got 'a bit difficult'. Hardly surprising given her wretched background and her appalling business career. Check it out on Companies House - the information is there.
Not sure what impact it had locally, was covered in the independent paper (read by about 1% of the population). But what effect does this really have on an election? Must be something else going on.
I hadn't been planning on staying up tonight, but I wouldn't be able to sleep at the moment. I guess I got caught up with all the "optimism on here and was expecting the Conservatives to be looking at a comfortable 80-100 seat majority.
But, thinking about it, of course people are going to vote for a big bag of sweeties that someone else is going to pay rather than ... well, what exactly? A chance of losing your home if you are unlucky enough to get dementia (at least, that was how it came across) and... oh yes. Fox hunting.
I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.
What a mess.
Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
Yebbut Dave called the referendum, thinking he would win. Just like Theresa did with this year's election.
I feel sorry for both Cameron and May, both capable politicians, both backed Remain both screwed by the current volatility and mood of the electorate, ie anti austerity, anti globalisation, anti immigration etc
No need to feel sorry for either of them.
Cameron backed himself into a corner willingly. May is just completely crap.
Any ideas how the fixed term parliament act works in a hung parliament? If the conservatives dont get a majority , do labour get a cgance to put up a queens speech?
I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.
What a mess.
Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
Yebbut Dave called the referendum, thinking he would win. Just like Theresa did with this year's election.
I feel sorry for both Cameron and May, both capable politicians, both backed Remain both screwed by the current volatility and mood of the electorate, ie anti austerity, anti globalisation, anti immigration etc
No need to feel sorry for either of them.
Cameron backed himself into a corner willingly. May is just completely crap.
Two politicians who both gambled big and lost
Cameron was forced into it by the Europhobic loons in his own party. May did it of her own volition.
I hadn't been planning on staying up tonight, but I wouldn't be able to sleep at the moment. I guess I got caught up with all the "optimism on here and was expecting the Conservatives to be looking at a comfortable 80-100 seat majority.
But, thinking about it, of course people are going to vote for a big bag of sweeties that someone else is going to pay rather than ... well, what exactly? A chance of losing your home if you are unlucky enough to get dementia (at least, that was how it came across) and... oh yes. Fox hunting.
On the plus side, David Miliband as next Labour leader is a bet that I'm very happy right now to have laid repeatedly.
How's the crossing going? Rough sea.
Very smooth. Could do with better wifi. Enjoying election night enormously.
Glad someone is :-)
I am.
People want a change. Brexit showed that.
I think Brexit showed that people wanted free stuff.
Unfortunately, Tory leavers thought the Brexit vote was some giant endorsement of their philosophical view point on sovereignty, self-determination and foreigners.
Any ideas how the fixed term parliament act works in a hung parliament? If the conservatives dont get a majority , do labour get a cgance to put up a queens speech?
May is still PM for now, and largest party would probably get first go.
I hadn't been planning on staying up tonight, but I wouldn't be able to sleep at the moment. I guess I got caught up with all the "optimism on here and was expecting the Conservatives to be looking at a comfortable 80-100 seat majority.
But, thinking about it, of course people are going to vote for a big bag of sweeties that someone else is going to pay rather than ... well, what exactly? A chance of losing your home if you are unlucky enough to get dementia (at least, that was how it came across) and... oh yes. Fox hunting.
Not a single person has mentioned fox hunting to me. Anywhere.
It's the free sweeties and exhaustion with austerity.
I hadn't been planning on staying up tonight, but I wouldn't be able to sleep at the moment. I guess I got caught up with all the "optimism on here and was expecting the Conservatives to be looking at a comfortable 80-100 seat majority.
But, thinking about it, of course people are going to vote for a big bag of sweeties that someone else is going to pay rather than ... well, what exactly? A chance of losing your home if you are unlucky enough to get dementia (at least, that was how it came across) and... oh yes. Fox hunting.
there's a realignment going on. The Tories getting the Moron vote the Brexiteers the Old. Labour getting the Young the Graduates and the Remainers. Not me but Danny Finklestein! (words not verbatum)
I hadn't been planning on staying up tonight, but I wouldn't be able to sleep at the moment. I guess I got caught up with all the "optimism on here and was expecting the Conservatives to be looking at a comfortable 80-100 seat majority.
But, thinking about it, of course people are going to vote for a big bag of sweeties that someone else is going to pay rather than ... well, what exactly? A chance of losing your home if you are unlucky enough to get dementia (at least, that was how it came across) and... oh yes. Fox hunting.
On the plus side, David Miliband as next Labour leader is a bet that I'm very happy right now to have laid repeatedly.
How's the crossing going? Rough sea.
Very smooth. Could do with better wifi. Enjoying election night enormously.
Glad someone is :-)
I am.
People want a change. Brexit showed that.
I think Brexit showed that people wanted free stuff.
Unfortunately, Tory leavers thought the Brexit vote was some giant endorsement of their philosophical view point on sovereignty, self-determination and foreigners.
This whole surprise result seems the biggest indictment of two years of Tory mishandling of Europe I've ever seen.
Comments
It'll be interesting to see if this slightly drunken thought is backed up by later analysis.
Corbyn appeal to flat-cap UKIP + predominant refighting of Brexit in the opposite direction, exaggerating all the Remain trends for Labour = goodnight Lynton and Teresa.
Brexit and Corbyn both winners - maybe only you and Old Labour celebrating both.
People want a change. Brexit showed that.
Cameron backed himself into a corner willingly. May is just completely crap.
You should have given them a more positive message.
Some wild rumours at the mo....
Con +6,000
Lab +5,000
But, thinking about it, of course people are going to vote for a big bag of sweeties that someone else is going to pay rather than ... well, what exactly? A chance of losing your home if you are unlucky enough to get dementia (at least, that was how it came across) and... oh yes. Fox hunting.
IGIndex is down
SPIN is still ip
PaddyP is still up
Spreadex still up
You can still buy Con most seats at 93 on Spin if you're interested.
We'll need to draw up a new list as all the old models are now trashed.
Unfortunately, Tory leavers thought the Brexit vote was some giant endorsement of their philosophical view point on sovereignty, self-determination and foreigners.
How do I bail out without losing the stop-loss? Is it automatic?
Lab +8.8
Con +11.6
Lab majority 9.4%
I like the bloke, but not his politics.
I've never been concerned by an election result before now.
It's the free sweeties and exhaustion with austerity.
Should be 1.15-1.25, perhaps?
Please.
The June 19th meeting will be postponed.
Middlesbrough
Workington
Basildon
Swindon North
Sunderland x3
Newcastle x3
Broxbourne
Kettering
That's 12. Which one am I missing?
The pessimistic Labour Uncut forecast predicted an 11-point loss here!