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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,927
    Dadge said:

    stjohn said:

    PBers all over the place.

    Exit poll the worst in history ......

    NOM a certainty .....

    Emotionally in a bad place
    I'm loving this. The consequences can sort themselves out later.

    Democracy is fun.
    Let's have a PB Midlands get-together soon. What's your favourite pub?
    Sadly, although I'm Derbyshire born and bred, strong in t'am, thick in t'ead, I;m now based in Cambridgeshire.

    Yes, I'm a hillwalker who moved from a hilly area to a county where you need an oxygen mask to scale to a molehill. ;)
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,528
    edited June 2017

    How the fuck could the Tories have fucked this up so badly? If early signs are true, it's not just May who got it wrong it's the entire back office operation. The end of Crosby and Messina surely.

    And the anti-Corbyn Blairites? Just teasing :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317

    How the fuck could the Tories have fucked this up so badly? If early signs are true, it's not just May who got it wrong it's the entire back office operation. The end of Crosby and Messina surely.

    This is almost like Hillary 2016 all over again. Horrible campaign, horrible targeting.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Tories confident in Aberdeen S, Aberdeenshire W and Kincardine and maybe taking Gordon from Salmond
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @DJMacDSTV: Reports that SNP's Angus Brendan MacNeil could be in trouble in the Western Isles. Astonishing. #ge2017

    I chucked a fiver on there.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Nuneaton almost identical to last time in majority terms. Ukippery area though.
  • daodao said:

    JonathanD said:

    Ken Clarke talking so much sense

    If Ken was leader I would have voted Tory today
    If Graham Brady loses his seat I'd be delighted!
    He is my local MP and I am expecting him to be returned with a substantial majority.
    You live over the road from me.

    I'm at Dane Rd, Sale
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Labour and Conservatives making gains in each others safe seats.

    Seems like bigger swings in the latter than the former, and the former usually have larger majorities.
  • DisraeliDisraeli Posts: 1,106

    Disraeli said:

    Something extraordionary going on here. The Brexit election which did not even dare speak its name, where everyone mocked the LD's for making it a central plank - and now a swing to Labour seems to be exactly mapped on to the remain areas, largely, apparently by young voters who didn't turn out for the referendum.

    Brexit, Act II - The young.

    Firstly, we don't know the extent of the turnout of the younger voters. Is it up? If so, by how much?
    Secondly, we don't know exactly what factors motivated them to vote.

    Some people are assuming that Brexit was the main factor. We may find out after the election that the abolition of student fees was more important.

    We simply do not know yet. People are projecting their own feelings on to this. :smile:
    Just like people projected their interpretation onto the EU referendum. The result is the result; the consequences are the consequences. Brexit is dead in the water.
    Your obsession with getting Brexit "cancelled" is most disturbing.

    Seeing your monomania about this at long distance, and me powerless to come to your aid makes me frustrated at the anonymity of the internet.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    So Corbyn's set to outlast another Tory Leader/PM
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    kyf_100 said:

    Mortimer, CarlottaVance, Alanbrooke, Alanbrooke, can you hear me?

    Your girl took one hell of a beating.

    *If* it ends up as the exit poll says, I shall replay my conversation with Alanbrooke from the other day over and over.
    The thing none of the talking heads are saying on TV - and surprisingly few people are saying here - is it was the dementia tax. It was all the dementia tax. Don't mess with people's homes. The Tories stomped home at the locals last month. The narrative changed with the dementia tax.

    Can anyone think of an appropriate punishment for Nick Timothy? I'm struggling right now.
    It really wasn't.

    Not a single person mentioned it to me in 3 seats...
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Nuneaton

    Con +6
    Lab +6.4

    Con majority 10.3
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    How the fuck could the Tories have fucked this up so badly? If early signs are true, it's not just May who got it wrong it's the entire back office operation. The end of Crosby and Messina surely.

    And to think Crosby was worshipped on this site.
    He's actually got a bit of a mixed bag in UK elections. Really screwed up the Mayoral campaign and destroyed Zac's USP only last year.
  • spudgfshspudgfsh Posts: 1,551
    Just so you know. a friend of mine is doing the local radio coverage of the count in Erewash. They've just finished verification and he'll text me when he knows any info,
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Jesus christ. We'v got an utterly hung parliament, no majority bar a grand coalition.
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    0.2% swing to Lab from Con in Nuneaton.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249

    Text from a CCHQ source to me

    'Please, please, please tell me it is going to be ok'

    They are texting you?

    Great.
    Yeah, I called Con maj and Leave before the BBC/ITV/Sky, so they think I'm good at analysing results.
    Lol. We're fucked.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    edited June 2017
    Nuneaton provides hope - no swing
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,383
    Typo said:

    Mhari Black in trouble.Yay.

    She'll have to go back to take her Highers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    HYUFD said:

    Tories confident in Aberdeen S, Aberdeenshire W and Kincardine and maybe taking Gordon from Salmond

    I'm hearing Gordon is three way
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Lynton Crosby bye bye
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,525
    Nuneaton - Con majority unchanged. Are we looking at the same result as 2015 overall?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    tlg86 said:

    Kettering. Ouch.

    YouGov
    60/32
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    Tory cuts...the vote count is slow......
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    2.8% swing to Lab in Kettering.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Nuneaton held, don't know whether that makes a huge difference to the picture or not.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @HCH_Hill: Soubry, Rudd, Gummer... has May actually managed to rip the heart out of the Tory *left*? https://twitter.com/1000cuts/status/872957181078982658
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    I'm going to bed.

    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.

    What a mess.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    The amazing, glorious silver lining is that the SNP look to be struggling. That alone makes up for any chaos in the rest of GB.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    tyson said:

    So Cameron plunges us into crisis with Brexit....and then he is swiftly followed by May who puts us into NOM....well done TORIES

    Europe is really the Tories own worst enemy in themselves.
    The whole fucking point of Cameron holding an early, rushed Referndum was to give the Tories time to heal before the next election.

    Bravo May, bravo.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,439
    edited June 2017

    That Kettering result is horrific for the Tories given the circumstances

    Con and Lab might end up both under 300 seats!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,381
    Chameleon said:

    Jesus christ. We'v got an utterly hung parliament, no majority bar a grand coalition.

    Two unforced errors by Tory PMs inside 12 months.
  • Darlington a good win for Tories if true. 3200 majority for Labour.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Can't sleep here
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,972
    DavidL said:

    If Boris or Leadsom becomes PM I'm joining the Lib Dems and will be doorstopping for them.

    (Though with my personal skills, that'll probably hurt the Lib Dems).

    If Rory Stewart becomes PM, I'm joining the Conservatives.

    Loved his book. PM? Hard to say.
    Nice guy; really not a leader.
    Too much self doubt.

  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,927
    DavidL said:

    If Boris or Leadsom becomes PM I'm joining the Lib Dems and will be doorstopping for them.

    (Though with my personal skills, that'll probably hurt the Lib Dems).

    If Rory Stewart becomes PM, I'm joining the Conservatives.

    Loved his book. PM? Hard to say.
    It loos like the revenant corpse of Michael Foot would be better than May.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    How the fuck could the Tories have fucked this up so badly? If early signs are true, it's not just May who got it wrong it's the entire back office operation. The end of Crosby and Messina surely.

    Messina did say there were a lot of undecided voters, what is happening is 3 elections, a swing to Labour in the Remain South and a swing to the Tories in the Leave North and Scotland
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215

    Nuneaton held, don't know whether that makes a huge difference to the picture or not.

    No swing one way or another.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    One worry I have is that people are quite set in their ways, more so than I can remember before, I'm not sure that the next vote will deliver anywhere near a coalition.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    GIN1138 said:

    That Kettering result is horrific for the Tories given the circumstances

    Con and Lab might end up both under 300 seats!
    That would be hilarious.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    EDW20000 said:

    Lynton Crosby bye bye

    I find it hard to believe that he could have misjudged it so badly, after getting it so right just 25 months ago.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,972
    Fox has been released from his box.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924

    How the fuck could the Tories have fucked this up so badly? If early signs are true, it's not just May who got it wrong it's the entire back office operation. The end of Crosby and Messina surely.

    EVERYONE has got this wrong.

    YouGov picked it up though.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @britainelects: Looking like Labour will take East Lothian from the SNP.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345

    I'm going to bed.

    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.

    What a mess.

    Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    GIN1138 said:

    That Kettering result is horrific for the Tories given the circumstances

    Con and Lab might end up both under 300 seats!
    That would be hilarious.
    I would chuckle. And cry, because the SNP would have to remain high.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    edited June 2017

    I'm going to bed.

    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.

    What a mess.

    Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
    deleted
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Plaid saying Ceredigion is a four way battle
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    I'm sorry I doubted you Yougov.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405
    Mortimer said:

    kyf_100 said:

    Mortimer, CarlottaVance, Alanbrooke, Alanbrooke, can you hear me?

    Your girl took one hell of a beating.

    *If* it ends up as the exit poll says, I shall replay my conversation with Alanbrooke from the other day over and over.
    The thing none of the talking heads are saying on TV - and surprisingly few people are saying here - is it was the dementia tax. It was all the dementia tax. Don't mess with people's homes. The Tories stomped home at the locals last month. The narrative changed with the dementia tax.

    Can anyone think of an appropriate punishment for Nick Timothy? I'm struggling right now.
    It really wasn't.

    Not a single person mentioned it to me in 3 seats...
    If this election result is due to a surge in young voters, dementia tax is unlikely to be the cause.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    dixiedean said:

    How the fuck could the Tories have fucked this up so badly? If early signs are true, it's not just May who got it wrong it's the entire back office operation. The end of Crosby and Messina surely.

    And the anti-Corbyn Blairites? Just teasing :)

    We have clearly been stuffed. If the next Labour leader does not have Corbyn's baggage we could have a very left wing government in five years time.

  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    I'm going to bed.

    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.

    What a mess.

    Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
    +1.
  • Chameleon said:

    Jesus christ. We'v got an utterly hung parliament, no majority bar a grand coalition.

    Quite possibly very well-hung. Only some kind of very precisely, over hasty agreed Brexit position could produce unity for anyone wanting to form a government, possibly.

    Wonder what Her Maj thinks. Another election down of the several million starting with Churchill, and this time two people could be coming to her to form a government.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    That David Herdson wobble is looking remarkably prescient.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317

    Nuneaton held, don't know whether that makes a huge difference to the picture or not.

    I think 330 seats is about what we're looking at. 5 weeks and millions of pounds wasted.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,636
    This isn't May's fault. This is 7 years of austerity.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Chameleon said:

    The amazing, glorious silver lining is that the SNP look to be struggling. That alone makes up for any chaos in the rest of GB.

    It doesn't make up for it, sadly. If it was enough to push them over the edge to a majority, maybe, but hung parliament when no one will want to be a in a coalition is a bad outcome.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    Could Nicky Morgan be In trouble in Loughborough big uni town
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Darlington a possible Tory gain? :(
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    marke09 said:

    Plaid saying Ceredigion is a four way battle

    Exactly what YouGov predicted.

    Would all those who were sceptical of the YouGov model please raise their hands...
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Shed a tear for ICM right now
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    May has completely fucked everything up. Jesus bloody christ.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    What's the best channel to watch?
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,924
    Good news.

    I'm going to make a few hundred quid on the night.

    Bad news

    I expect to lose a hell of a lot more when the stock markets open.
    Britain will have political turmoil.
    Expect a recession.
  • This isn't May's fault. This is 7 years of austerity.

    If that was true, it wouldn't be so often mapping onto the remain areas.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    CON UNDERPERFORMING BROXBOURNE.
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    So Corbyn's set to outlast another Tory Leader/PM

    :lol:
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120

    I'm going to bed.

    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.

    What a mess.

    Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
    deleted
    Casino...you were so well behaved earlier.....

    If...those can keep their heads.....
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Danny565 said:

    Darlington a possible Tory gain? :(

    Local factors?
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,301
    edited June 2017
    Broxborne, Herts. Con hold. 29K. 2.2% Con to Lab swing.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Alistair said:

    tyson said:

    So Cameron plunges us into crisis with Brexit....and then he is swiftly followed by May who puts us into NOM....well done TORIES

    Europe is really the Tories own worst enemy in themselves.
    The whole fucking point of Cameron holding an early, rushed Referndum was to give the Tories time to heal before the next election.

    Bravo May, bravo.
    This is all Brexit, May and Cameron are just the political gossip stories, this is the Remain voting South swinging to Labour to get soft Brexit, the Leave voting North swinging to the Tories to get hard Brexit and the Scots swinging to the Tories, Labour and LDs and away from the SNP to stop indyref2
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    dixiedean said:

    How the fuck could the Tories have fucked this up so badly? If early signs are true, it's not just May who got it wrong it's the entire back office operation. The end of Crosby and Messina surely.

    And the anti-Corbyn Blairites? Just teasing :)

    We have clearly been stuffed. If the next Labour leader does not have Corbyn's baggage we could have a very left wing government in five years time.

    You think Cons will still form this government? Casino_Royale is having a breakdown thinking it will Corbyn!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    dr_spyn said:

    0.2% swing to Lab from Con in Nuneaton.

    fuck! ukip going to Labour?
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    dr_spyn said:

    Broxborne, Herts. Con hold. 29K. Underperformance?

    Yes

  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    Nigelb said:

    Fox has been released from his box.

    Don't suppose there's any hope he's out. Mr Werritty could always find him a job.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    EDW20000 said:

    Lynton Crosby bye bye

    Reputation destroyed. Maybe he can slink of and go and be a bit racist in Australia or something.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Con sub 300 on the cards I think
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486

    That David Herdson wobble is looking remarkably prescient.

    Good call
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,587
    hunchman said:

    EDW20000 said:

    Lynton Crosby bye bye

    I find it hard to believe that he could have misjudged it so badly, after getting it so right just 25 months ago.
    He did screw up the London Mayoral too. I think that ultra-negative campaigns without bothering to push a positive agenda are proving counter-productive - and that is really, really good for British politics.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    edited June 2017
    Scott_P said:

    @britainelects: Looking like Labour will take East Lothian from the SNP.

    Hurrah ! A winner.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,927

    I'm going to bed.

    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.

    What a mess.

    Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
    Fuck off.
    I think TSE's correct. As I said in the previous thread, the youngsters *may* be reacting to the oldies fucking them over Brexit. At least from their perspective.

    I fear May's gone to grab the UKIP vote, and lost the centre ground. As I've been saying for yonks.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    MaxPB said:

    Nuneaton held, don't know whether that makes a huge difference to the picture or not.

    I think 330 seats is about what we're looking at. 5 weeks and millions of pounds wasted.
    And the Prime Minister weakened rather than strengthened for the negotiations.

    Not clever. Not clever at all.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Danny565 said:

    Darlington a possible Tory gain? :(

    Northern marginals are going to swing Tory. I've been hearing this from several reputable sources for weeks.

    I have a feeling that southern marginals currently held by Tories, few as they are, won't go Corbo.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    RobD said:

    Danny565 said:

    Darlington a possible Tory gain? :(

    Local factors?
    That was the one with Peter Cuthbertson disowning his youthful views wasn't it?
  • Shameful that Broxbourne whips Hertsmere in declaration.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    To be fair to @Casino_Royale, he didn't ask for May to do what she's done!
  • EDW20000EDW20000 Posts: 138
    Kate Hoey, ermmmmmm
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    edited June 2017
    Surveymonkey's +4% looks more accurate poll so far I think. They were dead on in 2015......

    Yougov regretting bottling their +3/+4 :-)
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Hmph, Nuneaton was the first real marginal, and it was a fair bit worse for Lab than YouGov's model.

    Maybe Crosby's ultra-micro-targetting in the marginals has worked.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    This isn't May's fault. This is 7 years of austerity.

    Dave delivered a majority after 5.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    TGOHF said:

    Shed a tear for ICM right now

    They indulged the politically engaged!

    When I wrote my thing about that , I didn't know that YouGov already did as I suggested
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    rcs1000 said:

    marke09 said:

    Plaid saying Ceredigion is a four way battle

    Exactly what YouGov predicted.

    Would all those who were sceptical of the YouGov model please raise their hands...
    Both hands (and feet) raised. Apologies to YouGov!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,381

    I'm going to bed.

    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.

    What a mess.

    Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
    Yebbut Dave called the referendum, thinking he would win. Just like Theresa did with this year's election.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Looks like Mrs May's about to become a citizen of nowhere too.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jimwaterson: Boris Johnson is "already on manoeuvres" claims Tory MP, who says the foreign secretary is "sounding out" a few colleagues about leadership.
  • GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071
    edited June 2017

    I'm going to bed.

    I expect Jeremy Corbyn to be Prime Minister in the morning.

    What a mess.

    Sorry mate, you're reaping what you sowed on June 23rd
    Fuck off
    This election may be re-run before Christmas.

    June 23rd is forever.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    Danny565 said:

    Hmph, Nuneaton was the first real marginal, and it was a fair bit worse for Lab than YouGov's model.

    Maybe Crosby's ultra-micro-targetting in the marginals has worked.

    Like Trump, the Tories could be winning EXACTLY where they need to.

    I cannot see why NOM has shortened.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    This isn't May's fault. This is 7 years of austerity.

    If that was true, it wouldn't be so often mapping onto the remain areas.
    It is austerity and remain areas
This discussion has been closed.