Undefined discussion subject.

Options
1…1011131516…20

Comments

  • Scott_P
    Scott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Tory insiders at CCHQ saying Tory Remainers stayed at home, one source says.
    No wonder Osbo happy.


    Not all of us. Some of us voted...
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the same source is briefing both Tom Newton Dunn and myself.

    Ask him how the fuck they got it so wrong
  • TheValiant
    TheValiant Posts: 2,018
    Question - what do people think of the Lib Dems? They were predicted to be nearly wiped out. Not on this exit poll. What is happening here?
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    That could be a brave assumption, especially given turnout is up.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    Chameleon said:

    I'm not really sure how I'm feeling. It's somewhere between joy and fear.

    I'm trying to assemble paper-and-card F1 scale rocket engines after two glasses of whisky.

    Sod it. I'm not enamoured with the Conservatives, and I think Corbyn's a clown. This is all hilarious.

    Can you overdose on popcorn?
  • MaxPB
    MaxPB Posts: 40,327
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    Oh dear.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Casino_Royale said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Confession time.

    5 weeks ago, I told my girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.

    Oh boy.
    Well lads, however bad our wallets may be hurting, TSE's will be hurting worse.
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    LOL Kellner thinks that Tories cold still get 80-100 majority, if the exit poll continues to be as wrong as it has been so far.
  • Typo
    Typo Posts: 195
    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Nobody made Cameron quit...
    Exactly. Called a referendum, botched the renegotiation, lost It, resigned and walked away.

    Nobody's fault but his own.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Chameleon said:

    I'm not really sure how I'm feeling. It's somewhere between joy and fear.

    Fear here
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    Curtice entering provisos at a rate of knots
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Watching Osborne and Balls on ITV - you get the impression they both hugely regret not standing considering they both would have been well placed had they been re-elected!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Yes, please tell George to give up the other shit and come and save the party.
    I've already messaged him that twice tonight.
  • ab195
    ab195 Posts: 477
    Anyone else notice Dimbleby has now started to say "YOUR exist poll" not "our exit poll"....
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    tyson said:

    The foxes are safe from being torn apart in a terrifying death from a pack of dogs....rejoice....

    Doesn't hunting still happen despite the Act?
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Houghton & Sunderland South turnout up by 4%
  • houndtang
    houndtang Posts: 450
    so basically we are in still completely in the dark?
  • Scrapheap_as_was
    Scrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    The revenge of the Cameroons?
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    SNP could be as low as 21, or almost 50. Fucking hell.
  • glw
    glw Posts: 10,463
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    That sounds courageous to me, but I'm not the expert.
  • RobinWiggs
    RobinWiggs Posts: 621
    ThreeQuidder said:

    Dougie said:

    FFS, we're stuck with the BBC Scotland coverage here while there are actually English results coming in which are not being covered at all. Ridiculous.

    Isn't BBC1 England available anywhere down the EPG? Or is it on BBC News or Parliament?
    BBC News channel has the main Dimbleby programme.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Thrasher: SNP range from 21 to 49.
  • Y0kel
    Y0kel Posts: 2,307
    tyson said:

    The foxes are safe from being torn apart in a terrifying death from a pack of dogs....rejoice....

    Yeah how idiotic a comment from May on that. Could have said nothing
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Thrasher says SNP range is 21-50 seats!
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    TheValiant said:

    Question - what do people think of the Lib Dems? They were predicted to be nearly wiped out. Not on this exit poll. What is happening here?

    Scotland tacticals and Tory underperformance,
  • kjohnw
    kjohnw Posts: 1,456
    AndreaParma_82 said:

    Plymout Herald says Labour is confident they have gained Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, not so sure about Moor View

    missing 9000 votes ?
  • Oliver
    Oliver Posts: 33
    This might be Curtice's downfall tbh

    Though given Kellner still gets work it probably doesn't matter how wrong they are.
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    Danny565 said:

    Think Curtice has underestimated how much postal voters will have trended to the Tories, relative to on-the-day voters, compared to last time. Tory majority on.

    Could be.

    Postals skew old - old swinging anti-Corbyn due to traditional views on defence, terrorism etc.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    LOL "SNP could go as low as 21 seats"

    What is going on
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the same source is briefing both Tom Newton Dunn and myself.

    Same source could be very wrong.

    I'd want multiple sources (preferably hard data from counts going straight to Messina) to believe it.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    Any word on how Clegg is expected to do?
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    80-100 majority still possible!
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Floater said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the same source is briefing both Tom Newton Dunn and myself.

    Ask him how the fuck they got it so wrong
    Nick Timothy, Dementia tax, police cuts, and Theresa May.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    There's going to be a lot of VERY close results in Scotland.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    How the fuck would that happen?
  • rkrkrk
    rkrkrk Posts: 8,746
    Phil Hammond for PM?
    At 550-1 it would be my best bet ever by a long long way.
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    That will be a duff assumption. The Tories will do better. I am guessing they will end up as you were at about 330. Thanks to Ruth.
  • JosiasJessop
    JosiasJessop Posts: 46,250
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Tory insiders at CCHQ saying Tory Remainers stayed at home, one source says.
    No wonder Osbo happy.


    Not all of us. Some of us voted...

    I went Lib Dem. Although another poster laughed at me, the voting ID part of the referendum did it for me.

    Though I'm in a safe Cons constituency. If I was in a Lab-Con marginal it would have been Con. Although perhaps not if Leadsom had been the Con candidate .... ;)
  • jonny83
    jonny83 Posts: 1,273
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Tory insiders at CCHQ saying Tory Remainers stayed at home, one source says.
    No wonder Osbo happy.


    Not all of us. Some of us voted...

    My postal vote was filled in, another tory remainer here.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nineteen Ninety Two

    1992 was not an exit poll. (I know this because I watched it on YouTube about a month ago.)
    Was there an exit poll in 92?
    I don't think so. The BBC poll was a done the day before with 8,000 voters in 200 constituencies.
    I thought there was an on-the-day exit poll but I could be wrong.
  • FrankBooth
    FrankBooth Posts: 10,022
    Katja Adler!!
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    Scrapheap_as_was said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    The revenge of the Cameroons?
    Nicky Morgan is taking soundings as we speak. (I'm joking but it's probably true.)
  • foxinsoxuk
    foxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Floater said:

    Chameleon said:

    I'm not really sure how I'm feeling. It's somewhere between joy and fear.

    Fear here
    Joy here!

    This was the outcome that I wanted, albeit not what I predicted.
  • GideonWise
    GideonWise Posts: 1,123
    edited June 2017
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Osborne? The smirking rat? I don't think so.
  • Carolus_Rex
    Carolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    Not very likely though.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago
    More
    Sheffield Hallam looking closer than 2015.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/872943157796884480
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    I'll have whatever nunu is having, most be potent stuff!
  • chrisb
    chrisb Posts: 121
    Floater said:

    LOL "SNP could go as low as 21 seats"

    What is going on

    Any sign of Malcolm tonight?
  • Brom
    Brom Posts: 3,760
    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    I wish! If only everywhere has Sunderland swings!
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    Sunderland South had a swing of over 3% to the Conservatives.

    Yet I think the exit poll predicts no Conservative gains in England.

    Now we'll certainly see differential results across the country but if there are some Lab to Con swings of 3% or over there's likely to be some Conservative gains in England.

    Which is what Labour were expecting before the exit poll.
  • HaroldO
    HaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Tory insiders at CCHQ saying Tory Remainers stayed at home, one source says.
    No wonder Osbo happy.


    Not all of us. Some of us voted...

    You're a Tory?
  • nielh
    nielh Posts: 1,307
    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    Oh dear.
    On my own experience at the count, the postal vote was overwhelmingly pro leave. Something like 90%.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Oh my god. I do not know what this feeling is. Absolute ecstasy if the SNP falls below 30.
  • Y0kel
    Y0kel Posts: 2,307
    MaxPB said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Yes, please tell George to give up the other shit and come and save the party.
    You think the public will vote for Osborne?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Casino_Royale said:

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    How the fuck would that happen?
    76 TCTC seats. Entirely possible.
  • kyf_100
    kyf_100 Posts: 4,957
    SeanT said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Surely the Tories would not choose Boris. He is actively harmful to UK interests.

    He'd go for Soft Brexit. Which you and I both want.
    As do I - but is now a good time to put a bet on the return of Nigel Farage?
  • ThreeQuidder
    ThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Lost deposits: Grn 2, LD 2, UKIP 1.
  • Blue_rog
    Blue_rog Posts: 2,019
    I have a huge problem if the young swing this vote. They believe in the magic money tree (bank of mum an dad) and have no grasp of the truly poisonous nature of Marxism. I really am scared for what's going to happen
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    If the Tories do get a majority whoever leads them I would be tempted for softish Brexit, ie try and stay in the single market in some form and with the 'transition controls' Blair failed to implement 'cashed in now' but otherwise leaving free movement and some continued payments to the EU but maybe not 100 billion euros. Katya Adler said the EU wanted clarity with the UK, they have not even got that now
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    The_Apocalypse said:

    LOL Kellner thinks that Tories cold still get 80-100 majority, if the exit poll continues to be as wrong as it has been so far.

    LOL going to be a LONG night
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    AndyJS said:

    Thrasher: SNP range from 21 to 49.

    I give up!
  • Alistair
    Alistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Tory insiders at CCHQ saying Tory Remainers stayed at home, one source says.
    No wonder Osbo happy.

    Wow, who'd have thought that would happen in the Brexit election?
  • Nigelb
    Nigelb Posts: 79,347
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Floater said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Looks like the same source is briefing both Tom Newton Dunn and myself.

    Ask him how the fuck they got it so wrong
    Nick Timothy, Dementia tax, police cuts, and Theresa May.
    ".... you took a hell of a beating..."

  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    TheValiant said:

    Question - what do people think of the Lib Dems? They were predicted to be nearly wiped out. Not on this exit poll. What is happening here?

    1997 levels of tactical voting - I bet an 8-10% vote share as suggested in polls will be accurate but people have put 2015 behind them. Scotland probably the bulk of those gains though.
  • Danny565
    Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    FrankBooth said:

    Katja Adler!!

    One of the BBC's best. Would be a much better top British politico than Kuenssberg IMO.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Even if the Tories go under 326, I'll be chuffed to bits with a 21 seat total for the SNP. LOL.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    Casino_Royale said:

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    How the fuck would that happen?
    There's 70 seats on a knife edge, if we're lucky.....
  • viewcode
    viewcode Posts: 25,200
    Casino_Royale said:

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    How the fuck would that happen?
    Kellnermathics. Ir's non-Euclidean.
  • Casino_Royale
    Casino_Royale Posts: 63,687
    The_Apocalypse said:

    LOL Kellner thinks that Tories cold still get 80-100 majority, if the exit poll continues to be as wrong as it has been so far.

    Kellner talks straight out of his arse.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    RobD said:

    Even if the Tories go under 326, I'll be chuffed to bits with a 21 seat total for the SNP. LOL.

    Ditto, that would be amazing.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jack Straw says he would be 'delighted' if Labour make gains under Corbyn despite having made previous predictions that he would lead Labour to oblivion

    I wonder how many will be begging to get back into the shadow cabinet now.
    The more the better....

  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    I'll have whatever nunu is having, most be potent stuff!
    thats what the bbc psepholigist said can't remember his name.
  • HaroldO
    HaroldO Posts: 1,185
    nielh said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    Oh dear.
    On my own experience at the count, the postal vote was overwhelmingly pro leave. Something like 90%.
    It tends to be older voters, my parents were postal votes.
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    Still, exciting though.
  • Prodicus
    Prodicus Posts: 658
    Right. Caveats & provisos coming out of exit pollsters' ears now. Disregard. Where's the Grouse.
  • Floater
    Floater Posts: 14,207
    Confession time - I feel too sick to eat the popcorn I stacked up on :-)
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    rcs1000 said:

    There's going to be a lot of VERY close results in Scotland.

    That will be nailbiting - I recall some of the models had majorities in the low hundreds. Could be agonizingly close for a lot of unionists.
  • Clown_Car_HQ
    Clown_Car_HQ Posts: 169
    Typo said:

    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Nobody made Cameron quit...
    Exactly. Called a referendum, botched the renegotiation, lost It, resigned and walked away.

    Nobody's fault but his own.
    Still, he has time now to tweet photos of his feet.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    Evening all,

    Honestly at this point I think this Exit Poll is the biggest load of bollx since god knows when.
  • TheScreamingEagles
    TheScreamingEagles Posts: 122,806
    https://twitter.com/hrtbps/status/872943292899524608
  • Paristonda
    Paristonda Posts: 1,844
    Osborne raises a good point. May said if she loses 6 seats she has lost the election. So if she does actually lose 6 seats, even if beating the exit poll, how can she form a government?
  • Ishmael_Z
    Ishmael_Z Posts: 8,981
    TheValiant said:

    Question - what do people think of the Lib Dems? They were predicted to be nearly wiped out. Not on this exit poll. What is happening here?

    God's way of confirming that He really does hate gays.
  • Chris
    Chris Posts: 12,059
    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    That will be a duff assumption. The Tories will do better. I am guessing they will end up as you were at about 330. Thanks to Ruth.
    Why, though?
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Danny565 said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago
    More
    Sheffield Hallam looking closer than 2015.

    I kinda hope that Nick holds on. Although I disagree with him on Brexit (and a number of other issues), I think he's a decent man.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Blue_rog said:

    I have a huge problem if the young swing this vote. They believe in the magic money tree (bank of mum an dad) and have no grasp of the truly poisonous nature of Marxism. I really am scared for what's going to happen

    I've heard people taking the line of 'the elderly screwed us, lets fuck them'. It's immature, but a genuine feeling. Not entirely unfounded.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    Anybody got any links to the counts for those very out there Tory losses? What are they saying?
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    https://twitter.com/faisalislam/status/872940479612104705
  • nunu
    nunu Posts: 6,024
    Carolus_Rex said:

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    Not very likely though.
    could be 30-40. Take the difference between 40 and 80=60. Fine.
  • chrisb
    chrisb Posts: 121
    ThreeQuidder said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Nobody made Cameron quit...
    Cambourne's fuckwitedness over the EU ref has led us to this sorry situation. In no way should they be considered winners. Ruth, on the other hand...
  • SimonStClare
    SimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    TheValiant said:

    Question - what do people think of the Lib Dems? They were predicted to be nearly wiped out. Not on this exit poll. What is happening here?

    Curtice appears to have picked up on what every pollster missed, shy Lib Dems?
  • MarkSenior
    MarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MikeL said:

    Also remember Exit isn't forecasting any Con losses to LD.

    There has to be downside there.

    It is not forecasting any gains either , even C and W and Southport
  • midwinter
    midwinter Posts: 1,112
    Casino_Royale said:

    The_Apocalypse said:

    LOL Kellner thinks that Tories cold still get 80-100 majority, if the exit poll continues to be as wrong as it has been so far.

    Kellner talks straight out of his arse.
    He does. However the exit poll prediction in Houghton was a long way out.
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    I'll have whatever nunu is having, most be potent stuff!
    thats what the bbc psepholigist said can't remember his name.
    Then I'll have what he's having!
  • Carolus_Rex
    Carolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    nunu said:

    Carolus_Rex said:

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    Not very likely though.
    could be 30-40. Take the difference between 40 and 80=60. Fine.
    Right now I will go down on my knees and pray for 30-40.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    Oh dear.

    I'm laying NOM....
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Casino_Royale said:

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    How the fuck would that happen?
    There's 70 seats on a knife edge, if we're lucky.....
    If we are lucky we get them all....and tomorrow St Jeremiah of Islington is anointed.....
  • marke09
    marke09 Posts: 926
    Pliad say they are no whwere close to beating Chris Bryant in Rhondda
  • The_Apocalypse
    The_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/hzeffman/status/872943157796884480

    LOL if that happens what the fuck is this exit poll?
  • kle4
    kle4 Posts: 99,113
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jack Straw says he would be 'delighted' if Labour make gains under Corbyn despite having made previous predictions that he would lead Labour to oblivion

    I wonder how many will be begging to get back into the shadow cabinet now.
    The more the better....

    The more back in it the better, or the more who beg the better?
This discussion has been closed.

Categories