Think Curtice has underestimated how much postal voters will have trended to the Tories, relative to on-the-day voters, compared to last time. Tory majority on.
Could be.
Postals skew old - old swinging anti-Corbyn due to traditional views on defence, terrorism etc.
Depends whether they are normalised to age of voter when analysing. It seems obvious to me, and is a reasonable assumption to match a 75 year old postal voter to a 75 year old in person voter.
Curtice on BBC explains treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.
That will be a duff assumption. The Tories will do better. I am guessing they will end up as you were at about 330. Thanks to Ruth.
Why, though?
The argument would be that the swing to Labour amongst on the day voters is driven explicitly by the sort of people who wouldn't be well represented amongst postal voters.
330 looks like being the big figure now. What DC won in 2015. If May wins that many, she can say 'didn't increase the majority but this is my mandate, I press on'. Just one seat fewer and she's the woman who went to the country asking 'who governs?' and came back with fewer seats than she started with.
This is going to be an infuriating night for all sides. Lab supporters not sure if their man will do it, Con supporters not sure if their woman has lost it. LD supporters praying the poll is true, SNP supporters praying it is false. Results all over the place. Doubt anyone on PB will be looking back on tonight fondly!
All I'll say is this. When this thing kicked off in April I said that I couldn't see where all those Conservative gains were coming from and a 35 seat majority would be a good result.
LOL if that happens what the fuck is this exit poll?
I think the exit poll has the overall picture broadly right but the swings will be anything but uniform so could be lots of outliers at constituency level.
Also remember Exit isn't forecasting any Con losses to LD.
There has to be downside there.
It is not forecasting any gains either , even C and W and Southport
I think the LDs will end up with two London seats. One of those will be Twickenham, I suspect. (But hope not.)
The exit poll sample from LD target seats will be way too small to draw any meaningful conclusions. This isn't like last time where almost any polling station showed that their vote had collapsed.
Those two guys are completely wasted outside the Commons.
A government with Ozzy as PM and Balls as Cote, or vice versa, would be absolutely solid.
During the State opening of parliament a few years ago, the two were chatting and laughing, as they walked through parliament, as thick as thieves. I got the impression they liked each other.
Curtice on BBC explains treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.
That will be a duff assumption. The Tories will do better. I am guessing they will end up as you were at about 330. Thanks to Ruth.
Why, though?
The argument would be that the swing to Labour amongst on the day voters is driven explicitly by the sort of people who wouldn't be well represented amongst postal voters.
Think Curtice has underestimated how much postal voters will have trended to the Tories, relative to on-the-day voters, compared to last time. Tory majority on.
Could be.
Postals skew old - old swinging anti-Corbyn due to traditional views on defence, terrorism etc.
Depends whether they are normalised to age of voter when analysing. It seems obvious to me, and is a reasonable assumption to match a 75 year old postal voter to a 75 year old in person voter.
LOL if that happens what the fuck is this exit poll?
I think the exit poll has the overall picture broadly right but the swings will be anything but uniform so could be lots of outliers at constituency level.
Surely the Tories would not choose Boris. He is actively harmful to UK interests.
He'd go for Soft Brexit. Which you and I both want.
I doubt it. Hammond would, though.
How do the tories get hard brexit through at all? May explicitly went to the country asking for a free hand for her version of hard brexit, and it has been rejected. The people want brexit, that much is clear. But do they really want a hard brexit?
My SwingModel had this prediction for Houghton & Sunderland South. CON 12333 LAB 24038. Actual result: CON: 12324, LAB: 24665.
The SwingModel just assumed there would be a migration from UKIP to CON, and, a youth surge for LAB. So I am encouraged by this result. Overall result of the Swing Model: CON 342, LAB 226. Add +-10. Either way, suggests CON still on course for a majority from 14 to 52. SwingModel National percentage vote prediction: LAB 36%, CON 43%.
Also remember Exit isn't forecasting any Con losses to LD.
There has to be downside there.
It is not forecasting any gains either , even C and W and Southport
I think the LDs will end up with two London seats. One of those will be Twickenham, I suspect. (But hope not.)
The exit poll sample from LD target seats will be way too small to draw any meaningful conclusions. This isn't like last time where almost any polling station showed that their vote had collapsed.
I suspect that's right. They'll show big ups in some places, and fade in most of the rest of the country.
We're see tactical voting return to some extent. (Especially in Scotland.)
Comments
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373#methodology
I just hope my other bets claw that back, and some.
rightplausible, about a 4% overperformance on the exit poll, I think.N.b. reckon may be being used interchangeably with hope by me tonight.
Getting Ozzy and Balls on is a coup.
Those two guys are completely wasted outside the Commons.
A government with Ozzy as PM and Balls as Cote, or vice versa, would be absolutely solid.
Opened my popcorn and beer.
I can't deny I'm amazed. Looks like my source who thought a Con Maj of 30 was likely was in the ball park. And that source was a LibDem !!
I think I'll stick to that....
Lab win Broxtowe, Bristol West, Cambridge, LDs NE Fife, Tories Angus
And some even more minor stuff with SCON and SLD wins, but those are my best hopes for enough to cover my many many losses.
Lib dems losing deposit in hastings
Total bollocks.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=kJVROcKFnBQ
Monty Python Election Special.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=J7enLKrxLrI
Tories 324
The SwingModel just assumed there would be a migration from UKIP to CON, and, a youth surge for LAB. So I am encouraged by this result. Overall result of the Swing Model: CON 342, LAB 226. Add +-10. Either way, suggests CON still on course for a majority from 14 to 52. SwingModel National percentage vote prediction: LAB 36%, CON 43%.
Hold on in there Mrs May!
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373#methodology
Nailed on
We're see tactical voting return to some extent. (Especially in Scotland.)