What is up with these potential Scottish swings - I know tactical voting, but were the voters there really surprised by their own decision 2 years ago or something?
Those two guys are completely wasted outside the Commons.
A government with Ozzy as PM and Balls as Cote, or vice versa, would be absolutely solid.
During the State opening of parliament a few years ago, the two were chatting and laughing, as they walked through parliament, as thick as thieves. I got the impression they liked each other.
Yes, they are friends. Ozzy is a gent – he offered to look after Balls' son in the Radio Five green room in the full knowledge that Balls was about to go on the radio and slag off his policies. Good for him.
LOL if that happens what the fuck is this exit poll?
I'm a bit sceptical too, as my posts will have shown, but I wasn't in the area where I gather there was a huge youth surge. We were told by a senior Tory councillor that Anaa Soubry was so sure it was in the bag that she spent polling day outside the constituency (in Ashfield).
I think Broxtowe was the most extreme gain on the exit poll prediction.
Britain Elects @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago More Sheffield Hallam looking closer than 2015.
I kinda hope that Nick holds on. Although I disagree with him on Brexit (and a number of other issues), I think he's a decent man.
In 2010, he had a lot of guts to do what he did when the nation's finances were in a mess. I think history will be kind to Clegg.
I hope so. He made mistakes, but he deserves better than to lose on a night LDs otherwise recover from the beating they got for what I think was a brave and tough decision to go into coalition.
I don't know why people are assuming that if George Osborne stayed in politics, he would have become Tory Leader. As a life-long tory voter, I would never vote for this snake in the grass and I know many others who wouldn't as well.
I'm convinced Theresa May never wanted this election. Why is it their aides and personal advisors have so much power?
Surely the Tories would not choose Boris. He is actively harmful to UK interests.
He'd go for Soft Brexit. Which you and I both want.
I doubt it. Hammond would, though.
How do the tories get hard brexit through at all? May explicitly went to the country asking for a free hand for her version of hard brexit, and it has been rejected. The people want brexit, that much is clear. But do they really want a hard brexit?
I think the exit poll is wrong, based on currency markets. I bought the pound tonight just after the big drop following the Exit Poll, hopefully at the bottom of the market and have now moved my stop loss to break even and am currently in a tidy profit.
I could be wrong, but I won't lose money
I love the way people are talking about Theresa May running a disastrous campaign. She didn't, she ran a different campaign, one perhaps for the 21st century. Using big data and focusing on key seats; putting forward a manifesto that would appear to have hit her key supporters rather than pandering to them with bribes.
Yes, it was pretty poorly explained but does anyone think we don't have a problem with social care funding.
Yes, she could have really gone after the Labour manifesto and the Labour front bench but how many "nasty party" headlines would that have produced.
Yes, she isn't as relaxed as David Cameron at dealing with public speaking engagements.
But, and it is a big but at this time of night, if the Conservatives do win a majority it gives her a real mandate - and the trouble for real Labour supporters (and not the SWP wing that seems to have taken over their party), whatever the result now, it doesn't resolve the Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott problem.
No, I don't think the game is up just yet. But if, at the end of the night, it is not a Conservative government then I think the country, to use a technical term, is well and truly fucked.
Surely the Tories would not choose Boris. He is actively harmful to UK interests.
He'd go for Soft Brexit. Which you and I both want.
I doubt it. Hammond would, though.
I know Boris. He's pro Single Market and pro FoM. He'd take Soft Brexit tomorrow.
Well he is an official leaver so he may be able to get away with it more than a remainer politician like May. If the tories do hold on, i'll be hoping for Boris (something I never expected to say).
I don't know why people are assuming that if George Osborne stayed in politics, he would have become Tory Leader. As a life-long tory voter, I would never vote for this snake in the grass and I know many others who wouldn't as well.
I'm convinced Theresa May never wanted this election. Why is it their aides and personal advisors have so much power?
He'd be a front runner now certainly.
And the idea that TM didn't really want this election is for the birds. How weak do you have to be to let your aides decide to call a snap election!?
Journalists pointing out quite rightly that she had very similar texts from LD command back in GE2015 at this time of the night, and we know how accurate that exit poll turned out to be.
STV reporter saying though Edinburgh North & Leith an easy win for SLab on exit poll swing, ballot count samples slightly favouring SNP, but early days.
Surely the Tories would not choose Boris. He is actively harmful to UK interests.
He'd go for Soft Brexit. Which you and I both want.
I doubt it. Hammond would, though.
How do the tories get hard brexit through at all? May explicitly went to the country asking for a free hand for her version of hard brexit, and it has been rejected. The people want brexit, that much is clear. But do they really want a hard brexit?
The Tories will have a decent majority.
Labour well set for 2022, though.
Hmm. A majority, certainly possible, exit poll so far looking a bit iffy. But I don't see it being more than her current majority. Tories are shy but they aren't THAT shy.
Can't help remembering all the 'authoritative' Lab columns this week with, they claimed, A1 info, who were expecting something close to an ELE for Labour.
Nothing can change the fact that we voted Leave in the referendum and if this is overturned in any way, then god help this country. Nigel Farage will be aeck leading UKIP, he has said as much.
What is up with these potential Scottish swings - I know tactical voting, but were the voters there really surprised by their own decision 2 years ago or something?
I think it's more than the SNP won a bunch of seats on 37-40% last time. If they're on 35% this time, and the unionist opposition solidifies, then they will lose many seats. (See Holyrood 2016. Particulatly, Edinburgh Western, Fife NE and Edinburgh South)
If May resigns as leader, what does that do to any potential coalition negotiations?
Screws them up most thoroughly.
We really should have our leaders be less prone to resign after elections and other key moments. With democratic leader elections stopping a rapid coronation this just causes added chaos.
My SwingModel had this prediction for Houghton & Sunderland South. CON 12333 LAB 24038. Actual result: CON: 12324, LAB: 24665.
The SwingModel just assumed there would be a migration from UKIP to CON, and, a youth surge for LAB. So I am encouraged by this result. Overall result of the Swing Model: CON 342, LAB 226. Add +-10. Either way, suggests CON still on course for a majority from 14 to 52. SwingModel National percentage vote prediction: LAB 36%, CON 43%.
What is up with these potential Scottish swings - I know tactical voting, but were the voters there really surprised by their own decision 2 years ago or something?
I think it's more than the SNP won a bunch of seats on 37-40% last time. If they're on 35% this time, and the unionist opposition solidifies, then they will lose many seats. (See Holyrood 2016. Particulatly, Edinburgh Western, Fife NE and Edinburgh South)
Does the poll only assume UNS? Tactical voting could eliminate even more SNP seats.
Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne
An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs
Yes, please tell George to give up the other shit and come and save the party.
You think the public will vote for Osborne?
Can't be any worse than May.
Cameron and Osborne were a team that worked. I don't think Osborne by himself would be successful. Rudd really needs to hold on. Her and Hammond are probably the best bet for the Tories. However, the Brexit fissure in the party might make proper governing impossible.
Comments
I think Broxtowe was the most extreme gain on the exit poll prediction.
Curiouser and curiouser.
Wrexham by 12
Delyn by 9
Alyn & Deeside by 9
Clwyd South by 9
I'm convinced Theresa May never wanted this election. Why is it their aides and personal advisors have so much power?
Labour well set for 2022, though.
Ynys Mon - Lab
Gower - Lab
Are my three biggest constituency bets.
Can someone smarter than me confirm the exit poll is good news for me here?
I could be wrong, but I won't lose money
I love the way people are talking about Theresa May running a disastrous campaign. She didn't, she ran a different campaign, one perhaps for the 21st century. Using big data and focusing on key seats; putting forward a manifesto that would appear to have hit her key supporters rather than pandering to them with bribes.
Yes, it was pretty poorly explained but does anyone think we don't have a problem with social care funding.
Yes, she could have really gone after the Labour manifesto and the Labour front bench but how many "nasty party" headlines would that have produced.
Yes, she isn't as relaxed as David Cameron at dealing with public speaking engagements.
But, and it is a big but at this time of night, if the Conservatives do win a majority it gives her a real mandate - and the trouble for real Labour supporters (and not the SWP wing that seems to have taken over their party), whatever the result now, it doesn't resolve the Corbyn, McDonnell, Abbott problem.
No, I don't think the game is up just yet. But if, at the end of the night, it is not a Conservative government then I think the country, to use a technical term, is well and truly fucked.
Time for more alcohol
Stood aside for the UUP again.
Alec diamond to get beat in Gordon.
At what point do the experts "rip it up"?
I wonder if they'll gain any English seats at all. (I suspect they'll pick up Twickenham, sadly.)
And the idea that TM didn't really want this election is for the birds. How weak do you have to be to let your aides decide to call a snap election!?
Who is Clegg under threat from? Labour, presumably?
Only joking - he is an adult and can vote for who he likes
She thinks Lab target number 40 - no it's not!!!
Absolute bollocks.
Frankly if they DON'T win there then the Tories are winning 100+ majority. Which they aren't, so it's not really telling us all that much.
We really should have our leaders be less prone to resign after elections and other key moments. With democratic leader elections stopping a rapid coronation this just causes added chaos.
(Though I'd love to see her go)
Vom.