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SystemSystem Posts: 12,260
edited June 2017 in General

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    holy shit
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Floater said:

    holy shit

    Seconded!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    Brexit negotiations start in 11 days...
  • waitingfortonightwaitingfortonight Posts: 54
    I don't trust this. But you need to watch the actual results really hard, the betting always lags the actual votes.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    Floater said:

    holy shit

    3rd rate. Like TM
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,521
    Help!!!
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,528
    JCICIPM?
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    If this is true May has to go
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,358
    !
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    NOM odds on on Betfair.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I'm not that lucky and I haven't been that good. If this comes true, I can give up on getting anything from santa this year or next.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Ed Balls is right.

    Another election.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    That is very wow.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142
    Floater said:

    If this is true May has to go

    Even if it's 20/30 higher she is finished, I think!
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Lets see some results come in.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    edited June 2017
    Right, now I've calmed down a bit - this has to mean large numbers of wins in Scotland for Labour - some of these must be very very close given the huge SNP majorities, so I can see it changing by 10 or so.

    Fallon probably shouldn't have mentioned how far ahead they looked.
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 42,359
    Coalition of chaos ahoy.

    Gina Miller is delighted, as I'm sure everyone will be delighted to know.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    My betting balance is totally fucked
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    ThreeQuidder said:

    NOM odds on on Betfair.

    ...and bouncing back...
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,540
    Extraordinary - not least because I think a majority of more than 15-20 is now completely impossible,
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Where are Labour cleaning up if this is true? London, Scotland?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    SNP not too far short off halved.
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 7,021
    dixiedean said:

    JCICIPM?

    If the numbers are right, that doesn't stack up.

    We're going to the polls again... sigh
  • OliverOliver Posts: 33
    So strong, much stable.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Unless that is all Con gains in Scotland and Cons carnage in England
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195
    Well none of my bets are coming in :D
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 29,468
    Oh no!

    A Landslide for Boris in the autumn it is then!

    It's only a poll! Reality will prevail, perhaps not quite the reality we had expected!
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Gramsci was right. Graduates.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    numbertwelve said:

    dixiedean said:

    JCICIPM?

    If the numbers are right, that doesn't stack up.

    We're going to the polls again... sigh
    If these polls are right the easiest way to get a slight majority is...LD/COn Coalition :)
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Jim Messina and Crosby reputation in utter tatters.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Con + Ulster Unionists = Majority.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,383
    Strong and Stable my arse.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    williamglenn said:

    Brexit negotiations start in 11 days...

    We wouldn't even have a government by then!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,521
    Alistair said:

    My betting balance is totally fucked

    Not just yours!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Utterly fucked.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Do people not do as the papers command anymore!?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    AndyJS said:

    Where are Labour cleaning up if this is true? London, Scotland?

    Not losing any in England, and winning some in London and Scotland?
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    It's a disaster if true. Stock market and pound crashes tomorrow another GE in 6 months
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,540
    kle4 said:

    numbertwelve said:

    dixiedean said:

    JCICIPM?

    If the numbers are right, that doesn't stack up.

    We're going to the polls again... sigh
    If these polls are right the easiest way to get a slight majority is...LD/COn Coalition :)
    No chance, cette fois.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,761
    ICM your guys took a hell of a beating
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    The LDs on 14 though....
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Exit must have lots of Con in Scotland.

    BBC said lots of Scottish seats are close to 50/50.

    That looks as if there is downside risk for Con.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Theresa May is Crap! HAHA!!
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    I think the tories have picked up at least a dozen in Scotland so on this exit poll they have lost about 30 seats net in England. I mean, really?
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,712
    Someone should thank David Willets for his excellent job on Uni fees
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Con can't be over 350 after this.
  • waitingfortonightwaitingfortonight Posts: 54
    anyone watching sterling? should be tanking hard if this is remotely correct?
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    A total defeat for May and Brexit if the exit poll is correct.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Pound falling!
  • AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,866
    *tiptoes in*

    Everyone OK? Has anyone checked on Sean T?
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    It doesn't make sense. So Labour have won seats that they didn't even campaign in?
  • Bobajob_PBBobajob_PB Posts: 928
    Can't believe this.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    The Tories will remain in government but Theresa is finished. Who takes over? Boris maybe.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    If the Tories are still winning a good number in Scotland, then they must be losing dozens across London and the other cities.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    Anyone interested in LD on 14?
  • nrs3079nrs3079 Posts: 14
    Sorry I'm in that river in Egypt - denial- over this exit poll. Let's see some results
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    10 years of hard work by Cameron, Osborne and the rest of their team destroyed by May in less than a year. Tories now re-toxified. Genius
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    site is buckling under the strain
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Told you Dave was awesome.

    Theresa is crap, official.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    The DUP are giggling and writing up their Christmas list as we speak
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Survation is the gold standard, I apologise.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    DavidL said:

    I think the tories have picked up at least a dozen in Scotland so on this exit poll they have lost about 30 seats net in England. I mean, really?

    And if the exit poll is overstating the SNP losses it could get worse for the Tories as the night goes on.
  • JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    OMG
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 55,521
    Con Majority 1.8 on Betfair now.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    DavidL said:

    I think the tories have picked up at least a dozen in Scotland so on this exit poll they have lost about 30 seats net in England. I mean, really?

    That's a lot of bloody losses.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    Well, whatever 'Brexit' is now is utterly up in the air.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2017
    Alistair said:

    Jim Messina and Crosby reputation in utter tatters.

    Sir Lynton Crosby.

    Time to remove the knighthood?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Told you Dave was awesome.

    Theresa is crap, official.

    Gone in the morning, I reckon.
  • WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 9,540
    Blue_rog said:

    It's a disaster if true. Stock market and pound crashes tomorrow another GE in 6 months

    Hmm - sounds a bit like something, that was once called "Project Fear".
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Think it'll be a bit better than that for the Tories, but we're probably talking a majority of 30 max I should think.

    Pinch me, I'm dreaming
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    So the large YouGov model is in pretty close agreement with the exit poll?
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    nrs3079 said:

    Sorry I'm in that river in Egypt - denial- over this exit poll. Let's see some results

    +1
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    How wrong was I?!

    lol
  • OliverOliver Posts: 33
    Theresa Mayhem the shortest serving PM since Bonar Law?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    How did Theresa fuck this up so badly?
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    PB Tories - you ok hun? :-)
  • socialliberalsocialliberal Posts: 41
    kle4 said:

    If the Tories are still winning a good number in Scotland, then they must be losing dozens across London and the other cities.

    Battersea will go then
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    The Ghost of Sir Anthony Eden will be well chuffed.

    "No longer the worst! No longer the worst!"
  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    Time to green up on Betfair before the exit poll is proved wrong.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    Where are Labour cleaning up if this is true? London, Scotland?

    Scotland
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    The exit poll only needs to be slightly wrong for Corbyn to be PM.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Second question - the local elections, Copeland, and more, showed the polls with Tories in the lead by a lot was not just polling talk - no longer can we say the campaigns don't change peoples' minds then, since millions would appear to have changed their minds in a very short time.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Completed my reverse ferret, down around £450 overall.
  • waitingfortonightwaitingfortonight Posts: 54
    Oh, sterling already tanking. Down around 2% in the last couple of minutes.

    Will crash much harder if this is correct.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 17,405
    May and Sturgeon out - Corbyn and Farron secure? Who would thunk it?
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    ICM "Gold standard" buried once and for all
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Where are Labour cleaning up if this is true? London, Scotland?

    Scotland
    That can only account for 20 seats. Max.
  • bazzer72bazzer72 Posts: 29
    It feels like a hung parilament is huge value at 2.3 odds against, given historical accuracy of exit polls? people just not waking up to the reality yet...
  • MarkHopkinsMarkHopkins Posts: 5,584

    Struggling to believe this exit poll. Let's see.

  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    murali_s said:

    Theresa May is Crap! HAHA!!

    So are you on your predictions.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Told you Dave was awesome.

    Theresa is crap, official.

    You were right.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    The_Apocalypse said:

    Survation is the gold standard, I apologise.

    I think these numbers would suggest more a 4-5% Tory lead, rather than the 1% lead Survation had it pegged at.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854
    Bobajob_PB said:

    Can't believe this.

    Poor old Brexit what a shame.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,345
    Election in October?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    Bloody hell, we can't get ITV in Scotland. We have the STV muppets.

    George must be hugely regretting his decision now. The Tories are going to be looking for a new leader.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Thrasher on SKY said exit poll has Labour up in every region.
    In London Con are down, in the other regions Con are also up
  • socialliberalsocialliberal Posts: 41
    BBC must be ecstatic
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,528
    Well done YouGov. You took some grief. If only you'd stuck to your guns!
  • Rexel56Rexel56 Posts: 807
    This is consistent with what has been briefed since about 5pm... assuming of course that we see the CON figure creep up like last time
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    Looks like David Herdson smelt the air correctly.
This discussion has been closed.