Nothing can change the fact that we voted Leave in the referendum and if this is overturned in any way, then god help this country. Nigel Farage will be aeck leading UKIP, he has said as much.
Fear not, Lab backed Brexit, and Corbyn is more a Leaver than May ever was.
But it will be a workers Brexit rather than a bosses Brexit.
Journalists pointing out quite rightly that she had very similar texts from LD command back in GE2015 at this time of the night, and we know how accurate that exit poll turned out to be.
Yes but early results then showed LD vote well down, early results tonight do not show Tory vote well down but up, just Labour vote also up
For those interested I'm hearing positive things about turnout in FST. Trying not to read too much into it.
Can DUP win, May might need them. (sorry I don't know anything about N.Ireland politics).
The DUP are not running in FST, instead they are backing their unionist rival - the UUP so that they will beat Sinn Fein. Its the only way a unionist politician can win that seat now.
My SwingModel had this prediction for Houghton & Sunderland South. CON 12333 LAB 24038. Actual result: CON: 12324, LAB: 24665.
The SwingModel just assumed there would be a migration from UKIP to CON, and, a youth surge for LAB. So I am encouraged by this result. Overall result of the Swing Model: CON 342, LAB 226. Add +-10. Either way, suggests CON still on course for a majority from 14 to 52. SwingModel National percentage vote prediction: LAB 36%, CON 43%.
Hold on in there Mrs May!
Fascinating stuff!
My prediction for Sunderland Central: CON 14783 LAB 23905 . Actual: CON: 15000, LAB: 25056. Okay, out by 1000 there.
Those two guys are completely wasted outside the Commons.
A government with Ozzy as PM and Balls as Cote, or vice versa, would be absolutely solid.
During the State opening of parliament a few years ago, the two were chatting and laughing, as they walked through parliament, as thick as thieves. I got the impression they liked each other.
Yes, they are friends. Ozzy is a gent – he offered to look after Balls' son in the Radio Five green room in the full knowledge that Balls was about to go on the radio and slag off his policies. Good for him.
Good on them both. There should be more of that in politics: I disagree with the policies, but (s)he's a good person. Instead in the eyes of supporters it becomes: "They're evil!"
Though in a few cases, such as Burnham and Leadsom, the latter reaction may be valid.
If May wins a majority of any sort, she is entitled to remain as Conservative Leader and PM.
Nah, she's fatally damaged.
Yep. MPs will be looking at this campaign, and be wondering how she'll f'up the next one.
She's a goner, either immediately, or before the next GE.
If she does get a majority, then she is gone before the next GE yes but I don't think she ever planned on standing in more than one. It's about getting that Tory front bench looking fuller for me, and the Labour one. They are both thin currently, which is not good for us all politically.
Comments
But it will be a workers Brexit rather than a bosses Brexit.
Non-alcoholic champagne corks popping in Raqqa....
Lab +4k
Con +5k
Swing to Tories.
Lab 25056
Green 705
LD 1777
UKIP 2209
Conservative 15059
More
Welsh Tory source reckons they've lost Gower and Vale of Clwyd.
I think Con +5,000 Lab +4,000
What I am doing is calling
(Con increase/UKIP loss) A
(Lab Increase/UKIP loss) B
Then A/B
Worthwhile?
1 is par, over is good for Con under is good for Lab
So far
Houghton 1.51
Newcastle 0.53
Sunderland Central 1.29
Con +10%
How does that stack up with 15 seats nationally?
Lab up 5
Tories up 10
2.3% swing from Labour to Tories
Con +9.1
Lab +6.3
LD +0.1
UKIP -13.8
She's a goner, either immediately, or before the next GE.
LDs really getting squeezed, is that right?
Had them holding Gower and Vale of Clwyd comfortably, but they've gone apparently
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1XzHr6kGmnaPqF_kzjODs0rUGOAvTE3F71rJ119yRvak/edit#gid=0
But does this mean that there is a return of anti-Tory tactical voting?
But what if she just falls short?
Though in a few cases, such as Burnham and Leadsom, the latter reaction may be valid.
It's about getting that Tory front bench looking fuller for me, and the Labour one. They are both thin currently, which is not good for us all politically.
I think we will get very weird results in different areas because of the Brexit effect.
I would expect Labour to do well (relatively) in the South and not so well (relatively) in the North. And very well in London.
But it's just too early to say, as we have only had results from the Newcastle area.