Either way, Theresa May's mandate for the Brexit negotiations is shot. If she stays on or the tories do, what are we looking at in terms of Brexit negotiations?
I really wouldn't read too much into results in safe (Labour) seats.
What we need to see is results in the marginals, both Con hold and Lab hold ones.
Here is the list of seats where we need information - all others are irrelevant
Ayr, Carrick & Cummnock Ochil & South Perthshire East othian East REnfreshwire Aberdeen South Perth & North Perthshire Fife North East DCT D&G BRS Aberdeen South Bath
Odd. They got it almost spot on in the last 3 or 4 elections.
We need to define "rubbish" and "almost spot on". If the exit poll under estimates CON by the same margin as last time, then we're back to a small Con maj at approx 330.
Yes - exit poll says they have done very well. If it is slightly less good, they need the poll to be wrong in the other direction to get a majority, or even close to it.
Newcastle has a better train station than Sunderland
Newcastle is a much under-appreciated city. I love the place. Though some of the suburbs are dodgy.
Suburbs nowhere near as dodgy as Birmingham, Leeds & Manchester.
When I was on my coastal walk, I did an interview with the local BBC radio station in Hull. After the call, the host asked me which route I was taking on the way into the city. When I told him, his reply was something like: "Oh God, don't go that way, you'll get mugged."
I was fine.
Another BBC presenter gave me advice to park our motorhome on a certain street near the station in Preston. We did so, and had some hilarious interactions with the locals. When I told her the next day, she said: "Fuck. I meant the other end of that road."
Yes - exit poll says they have done very well. If it is slightly less good, they need the poll to be wrong in the other direction to get a majority, or even close to it.
We could easily see Scotland +10, Wales +10, England -20
On the accuracy of the exit poll and the swing to and from the Conservatives in individual seats.
The key is the UKIP vote share in 2015
Above the national share (plus a bit) the seat should swing to the Conservatives; below it should swing to Labour
Newcastle Central had 15% UKIP in 2015, which is slightly above the English national share of 14% and saw a small swing to Labour; Sunderland South had 21% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives.
While that prediction was out there even for pessimistic predictions, given the locals and Copeland and the like, in fairness to experts, it really does seem that for once a good campaign for one side and poor campaign for the other truly made a big difference and changed a lot of minds.
Jack Straw says he would be 'delighted' if Labour make gains under Corbyn despite having made previous predictions that he would lead Labour to oblivion
It is situations like this that show how silly party rules for electing leaders are these days. I don't see how parties can conduct national membership leadership elections for potential prime ministers, where the existing prime minister has been forced to resign.
Think Curtice has underestimated how much postal voters will have trended to the Tories, relative to on-the-day voters, compared to last time. Tory majority on.
Jack Straw says he would be 'delighted' if Labour make gains under Corbyn despite having made previous predictions that he would lead Labour to oblivion
I wonder how many will be begging to get back into the shadow cabinet now.
If May ends up with a small majority. That is failure.
Obviously it doesn't meet expectations, or suggest the risk paid off.
But there's something I don't quite understand about why people are so down about it. The Tories only have a narrow majority now, another majority of similar size (perhaps slightly larger if TSE's sources are right) isn't really any worse, but it still buys two more years on the clock. And a solid national voteshare brings voters into the pool (bring back, perhaps, for ex-Kippers) for future elections. These two advantages of a narrow win with good voteshare (which is the most likely form of narrow win) are almost never mentioned, but both seem to me to have considerable value. Arguably outweighed in value by the loss of momentum and opportunity, or the failure to meet expectations, but not total write-offs either.
Comments
Con +8.6
Lab +7.0
LD -0.6
UKIP -13.4
...if my Excel formulas are correct...
I wonder if it is a narrow majority, the Tories decide not to follow through on that manifesto promise to repeal it.
Now 30 years since the Tories won a decent majority.
https://yougov.co.uk/uk-general-election-2017/
I was fine.
Another BBC presenter gave me advice to park our motorhome on a certain street near the station in Preston. We did so, and had some hilarious interactions with the locals. When I told her the next day, she said: "Fuck. I meant the other end of that road."
There has to be downside there.
The key is the UKIP vote share in 2015
Above the national share (plus a bit) the seat should swing to the Conservatives; below it should swing to Labour
Newcastle Central had 15% UKIP in 2015, which is slightly above the English national share of 14% and saw a small swing to Labour; Sunderland South had 21% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives.
The exit poll looks good so far.
Strong and stable eh LOL
I will reserve my place in the queue.
An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs
(Liam excepted)
https://youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZt8yg
;-)
I am in Cardiff celebrating.
I think exit poll to result movement for Con will be like 2015 - I'm on Con maj on BF.
But there's something I don't quite understand about why people are so down about it. The Tories only have a narrow majority now, another majority of similar size (perhaps slightly larger if TSE's sources are right) isn't really any worse, but it still buys two more years on the clock. And a solid national voteshare brings voters into the pool (bring back, perhaps, for ex-Kippers) for future elections. These two advantages of a narrow win with good voteshare (which is the most likely form of narrow win) are almost never mentioned, but both seem to me to have considerable value. Arguably outweighed in value by the loss of momentum and opportunity, or the failure to meet expectations, but not total write-offs either.
It seems the whole country has gone into Labour.