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  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @paulwaugh: Tory insiders at CCHQ saying Tory Remainers stayed at home, one source says.
    No wonder Osbo happy.


    Not all of us. Some of us voted...
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    Looks like the same source is briefing both Tom Newton Dunn and myself.

    Ask him how the fuck they got it so wrong
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,890
    Question - what do people think of the Lib Dems? They were predicted to be nearly wiped out. Not on this exit poll. What is happening here?
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,292
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    That could be a brave assumption, especially given turnout is up.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,958
    Chameleon said:

    I'm not really sure how I'm feeling. It's somewhere between joy and fear.

    I'm trying to assemble paper-and-card F1 scale rocket engines after two glasses of whisky.

    Sod it. I'm not enamoured with the Conservatives, and I think Corbyn's a clown. This is all hilarious.

    Can you overdose on popcorn?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,319
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    Oh dear.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264

    Confession time.

    5 weeks ago, I told my girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.

    Oh boy.
    Well lads, however bad our wallets may be hurting, TSE's will be hurting worse.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    LOL Kellner thinks that Tories cold still get 80-100 majority, if the exit poll continues to be as wrong as it has been so far.
  • TypoTypo Posts: 195

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Nobody made Cameron quit...
    Exactly. Called a referendum, botched the renegotiation, lost It, resigned and walked away.

    Nobody's fault but his own.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Chameleon said:

    I'm not really sure how I'm feeling. It's somewhere between joy and fear.

    Fear here
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Curtice entering provisos at a rate of knots
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Watching Osborne and Balls on ITV - you get the impression they both hugely regret not standing considering they both would have been well placed had they been re-elected!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    MaxPB said:

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Yes, please tell George to give up the other shit and come and save the party.
    I've already messaged him that twice tonight.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    Anyone else notice Dimbleby has now started to say "YOUR exist poll" not "our exit poll"....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    tyson said:

    The foxes are safe from being torn apart in a terrifying death from a pack of dogs....rejoice....

    Doesn't hunting still happen despite the Act?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Houghton & Sunderland South turnout up by 4%
  • houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    so basically we are in still completely in the dark?
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    The revenge of the Cameroons?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    SNP could be as low as 21, or almost 50. Fucking hell.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,010
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    That sounds courageous to me, but I'm not the expert.
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621

    Dougie said:

    FFS, we're stuck with the BBC Scotland coverage here while there are actually English results coming in which are not being covered at all. Ridiculous.

    Isn't BBC1 England available anywhere down the EPG? Or is it on BBC News or Parliament?
    BBC News channel has the main Dimbleby programme.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2017
    Thrasher: SNP range from 21 to 49.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Thrasher says SNP range is 21-50 seats!
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    tyson said:

    The foxes are safe from being torn apart in a terrifying death from a pack of dogs....rejoice....

    Yeah how idiotic a comment from May on that. Could have said nothing
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    Question - what do people think of the Lib Dems? They were predicted to be nearly wiped out. Not on this exit poll. What is happening here?

    Scotland tacticals and Tory underperformance,
  • kjohnwkjohnw Posts: 1,456

    Plymout Herald says Labour is confident they have gained Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, not so sure about Moor View

    missing 9000 votes ?
  • OliverOliver Posts: 33
    This might be Curtice's downfall tbh

    Though given Kellner still gets work it probably doesn't matter how wrong they are.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Danny565 said:

    Think Curtice has underestimated how much postal voters will have trended to the Tories, relative to on-the-day voters, compared to last time. Tory majority on.

    Could be.

    Postals skew old - old swinging anti-Corbyn due to traditional views on defence, terrorism etc.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    LOL "SNP could go as low as 21 seats"

    What is going on
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255

    Looks like the same source is briefing both Tom Newton Dunn and myself.

    Same source could be very wrong.

    I'd want multiple sources (preferably hard data from counts going straight to Messina) to believe it.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Any word on how Clegg is expected to do?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    80-100 majority still possible!
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373
    Floater said:

    Looks like the same source is briefing both Tom Newton Dunn and myself.

    Ask him how the fuck they got it so wrong
    Nick Timothy, Dementia tax, police cuts, and Theresa May.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,910
    There's going to be a lot of VERY close results in Scotland.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255
    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    How the fuck would that happen?
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 8,411
    Phil Hammond for PM?
    At 550-1 it would be my best bet ever by a long long way.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,225
    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    That will be a duff assumption. The Tories will do better. I am guessing they will end up as you were at about 330. Thanks to Ruth.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,958
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Tory insiders at CCHQ saying Tory Remainers stayed at home, one source says.
    No wonder Osbo happy.


    Not all of us. Some of us voted...

    I went Lib Dem. Although another poster laughed at me, the voting ID part of the referendum did it for me.

    Though I'm in a safe Cons constituency. If I was in a Lab-Con marginal it would have been Con. Although perhaps not if Leadsom had been the Con candidate .... ;)
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Tory insiders at CCHQ saying Tory Remainers stayed at home, one source says.
    No wonder Osbo happy.


    Not all of us. Some of us voted...

    My postal vote was filled in, another tory remainer here.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,994
    Katja Adler!!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Jonathan said:

    Nineteen Ninety Two

    1992 was not an exit poll. (I know this because I watched it on YouTube about a month ago.)
    Was there an exit poll in 92?
    I don't think so. The BBC poll was a done the day before with 8,000 voters in 200 constituencies.
    I thought there was an on-the-day exit poll but I could be wrong.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,881

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    The revenge of the Cameroons?
    Nicky Morgan is taking soundings as we speak. (I'm joking but it's probably true.)
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Floater said:

    Chameleon said:

    I'm not really sure how I'm feeling. It's somewhere between joy and fear.

    Fear here
    Joy here!

    This was the outcome that I wanted, albeit not what I predicted.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    edited June 2017

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Osborne? The smirking rat? I don't think so.
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    Not very likely though.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago
    More
    Sheffield Hallam looking closer than 2015.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    I'll have whatever nunu is having, most be potent stuff!
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 115
    Floater said:

    LOL "SNP could go as low as 21 seats"

    What is going on

    Any sign of Malcolm tonight?
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    I wish! If only everywhere has Sunderland swings!
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,925
    Sunderland South had a swing of over 3% to the Conservatives.

    Yet I think the exit poll predicts no Conservative gains in England.

    Now we'll certainly see differential results across the country but if there are some Lab to Con swings of 3% or over there's likely to be some Conservative gains in England.

    Which is what Labour were expecting before the exit poll.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Tory insiders at CCHQ saying Tory Remainers stayed at home, one source says.
    No wonder Osbo happy.


    Not all of us. Some of us voted...

    You're a Tory?
  • nielhnielh Posts: 1,307
    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    Oh dear.
    On my own experience at the count, the postal vote was overwhelmingly pro leave. Something like 90%.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Oh my god. I do not know what this feeling is. Absolute ecstasy if the SNP falls below 30.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    MaxPB said:

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Yes, please tell George to give up the other shit and come and save the party.
    You think the public will vote for Osborne?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    How the fuck would that happen?
    76 TCTC seats. Entirely possible.
  • kyf_100kyf_100 Posts: 4,951
    SeanT said:

    Surely the Tories would not choose Boris. He is actively harmful to UK interests.

    He'd go for Soft Brexit. Which you and I both want.
    As do I - but is now a good time to put a bet on the return of Nigel Farage?
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Lost deposits: Grn 2, LD 2, UKIP 1.
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    I have a huge problem if the young swing this vote. They believe in the magic money tree (bank of mum an dad) and have no grasp of the truly poisonous nature of Marxism. I really am scared for what's going to happen
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,688
    If the Tories do get a majority whoever leads them I would be tempted for softish Brexit, ie try and stay in the single market in some form and with the 'transition controls' Blair failed to implement 'cashed in now' but otherwise leaving free movement and some continued payments to the EU but maybe not 100 billion euros. Katya Adler said the EU wanted clarity with the UK, they have not even got that now
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207

    LOL Kellner thinks that Tories cold still get 80-100 majority, if the exit poll continues to be as wrong as it has been so far.

    LOL going to be a LONG night
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,403
    AndyJS said:

    Thrasher: SNP range from 21 to 49.

    I give up!
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_P said:

    @paulwaugh: Tory insiders at CCHQ saying Tory Remainers stayed at home, one source says.
    No wonder Osbo happy.

    Wow, who'd have thought that would happen in the Brexit election?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 72,997

    Floater said:

    Looks like the same source is briefing both Tom Newton Dunn and myself.

    Ask him how the fuck they got it so wrong
    Nick Timothy, Dementia tax, police cuts, and Theresa May.
    ".... you took a hell of a beating..."

  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    Question - what do people think of the Lib Dems? They were predicted to be nearly wiped out. Not on this exit poll. What is happening here?

    1997 levels of tactical voting - I bet an 8-10% vote share as suggested in polls will be accurate but people have put 2015 behind them. Scotland probably the bulk of those gains though.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091

    Katja Adler!!

    One of the BBC's best. Would be a much better top British politico than Kuenssberg IMO.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,145
    Even if the Tories go under 326, I'll be chuffed to bits with a 21 seat total for the SNP. LOL.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,373

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    How the fuck would that happen?
    There's 70 seats on a knife edge, if we're lucky.....
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 22,761

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    How the fuck would that happen?
    Kellnermathics. Ir's non-Euclidean.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,255

    LOL Kellner thinks that Tories cold still get 80-100 majority, if the exit poll continues to be as wrong as it has been so far.

    Kellner talks straight out of his arse.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    RobD said:

    Even if the Tories go under 326, I'll be chuffed to bits with a 21 seat total for the SNP. LOL.

    Ditto, that would be amazing.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jack Straw says he would be 'delighted' if Labour make gains under Corbyn despite having made previous predictions that he would lead Labour to oblivion

    I wonder how many will be begging to get back into the shadow cabinet now.
    The more the better....

  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    I'll have whatever nunu is having, most be potent stuff!
    thats what the bbc psepholigist said can't remember his name.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    nielh said:

    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    Oh dear.
    On my own experience at the count, the postal vote was overwhelmingly pro leave. Something like 90%.
    It tends to be older voters, my parents were postal votes.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Still, exciting though.
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658
    Right. Caveats & provisos coming out of exit pollsters' ears now. Disregard. Where's the Grouse.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Confession time - I feel too sick to eat the popcorn I stacked up on :-)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    rcs1000 said:

    There's going to be a lot of VERY close results in Scotland.

    That will be nailbiting - I recall some of the models had majorities in the low hundreds. Could be agonizingly close for a lot of unionists.
  • Clown_Car_HQClown_Car_HQ Posts: 169
    Typo said:

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Nobody made Cameron quit...
    Exactly. Called a referendum, botched the renegotiation, lost It, resigned and walked away.

    Nobody's fault but his own.
    Still, he has time now to tweet photos of his feet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 63,544
    Evening all,

    Honestly at this point I think this Exit Poll is the biggest load of bollx since god knows when.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Osborne raises a good point. May said if she loses 6 seats she has lost the election. So if she does actually lose 6 seats, even if beating the exit poll, how can she form a government?
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    Question - what do people think of the Lib Dems? They were predicted to be nearly wiped out. Not on this exit poll. What is happening here?

    God's way of confirming that He really does hate gays.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    DavidL said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    That will be a duff assumption. The Tories will do better. I am guessing they will end up as you were at about 330. Thanks to Ruth.
    Why, though?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,910
    Danny565 said:

    Britain Elects‏ @britainelects 4m4 minutes ago
    More
    Sheffield Hallam looking closer than 2015.

    I kinda hope that Nick holds on. Although I disagree with him on Brexit (and a number of other issues), I think he's a decent man.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Blue_rog said:

    I have a huge problem if the young swing this vote. They believe in the magic money tree (bank of mum an dad) and have no grasp of the truly poisonous nature of Marxism. I really am scared for what's going to happen

    I've heard people taking the line of 'the elderly screwed us, lets fuck them'. It's immature, but a genuine feeling. Not entirely unfounded.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,263
    Anybody got any links to the counts for those very out there Tory losses? What are they saying?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    Not very likely though.
    could be 30-40. Take the difference between 40 and 80=60. Fine.
  • chrisbchrisb Posts: 115

    Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne

    An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs

    Nobody made Cameron quit...
    Cambourne's fuckwitedness over the EU ref has led us to this sorry situation. In no way should they be considered winners. Ruth, on the other hand...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976

    Question - what do people think of the Lib Dems? They were predicted to be nearly wiped out. Not on this exit poll. What is happening here?

    Curtice appears to have picked up on what every pollster missed, shy Lib Dems?
  • MarkSeniorMarkSenior Posts: 4,699
    MikeL said:

    Also remember Exit isn't forecasting any Con losses to LD.

    There has to be downside there.

    It is not forecasting any gains either , even C and W and Southport
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112

    LOL Kellner thinks that Tories cold still get 80-100 majority, if the exit poll continues to be as wrong as it has been so far.

    Kellner talks straight out of his arse.
    He does. However the exit poll prediction in Houghton was a long way out.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    nunu said:

    kle4 said:

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    I'll have whatever nunu is having, most be potent stuff!
    thats what the bbc psepholigist said can't remember his name.
    Then I'll have what he's having!
  • Carolus_RexCarolus_Rex Posts: 1,414
    nunu said:

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    Not very likely though.
    could be 30-40. Take the difference between 40 and 80=60. Fine.
    Right now I will go down on my knees and pray for 30-40.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    MaxPB said:

    Ishmael_Z said:

    Curtice on BBC explains​ treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.

    Oh dear.

    I'm laying NOM....
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120

    nunu said:

    80-100 majority still possible!

    How the fuck would that happen?
    There's 70 seats on a knife edge, if we're lucky.....
    If we are lucky we get them all....and tomorrow St Jeremiah of Islington is anointed.....
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Pliad say they are no whwere close to beating Chris Bryant in Rhondda
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    LOL if that happens what the fuck is this exit poll?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    tyson said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:

    Jack Straw says he would be 'delighted' if Labour make gains under Corbyn despite having made previous predictions that he would lead Labour to oblivion

    I wonder how many will be begging to get back into the shadow cabinet now.
    The more the better....

    The more back in it the better, or the more who beg the better?
This discussion has been closed.