Apologies - has anyone answered the question about how the Exit poll samples postal voters?
They don't take account of postals.
Well that could make a massive difference couldn't it? How many youngsters use postal votes? Won't that exaggerate the presumed assumption that postal votes reflect the wider electorate?
Sounds plausible. Postal voting = about 17% of all votes. Could make a big difference.
Will be interesting to see how Sunderland South compares to the exit poll. From what I read, that is a big postal voting seat. Labour underperforming here could be a sign of what you say.
If we get Soft Brexit/no Brexit - my dad will be mad. I'll be happy.
If we get No Brexit, particularly without a second referendum or a party (or coalition of parties) explicitly pledging No Brexit winning a General Election, the political stability of this country would be in serious jeopardy. It would be seen, by a large part of this country, as a grave betrayal of democracy
In the most moderate scenario I can imagine, you'd see UKIP on 25%-30% in the polls. (This is not in the least bit outlandish, given their previous polling highs and the backlash an unmandated No Brexit would cause. Even No Brexit With Mandate could conceivably see a UKIP resurrection.)
I'm not sure what the most severe plausible scenario is. But it would not be pretty.
I think Remainers need to be very, very, very, very careful what they wish for here.
Kellner reckons Newcastle Central 'should' have had 7% swing to Labour not 2.1%, if exit poll is right. Fingers crossed.
I have a theory areas already strongly Labour won't be as dramatic as others. I think the marginals are where Labour have swung it this time - they were not hugely enthused by the Tories last time, and the good Labour campaign swayed them.
If we get No Brexit, particularly without a second referendum or a party (or coalition of parties) explicitly pledging No Brexit winning a General Election, the political stability of this country would be in serious jeopardy. It would be seen, by a large part of this country, as a grave betrayal of democracy
The Betfair odds are still implying a Tory majority is more likely than not.
Does anyone have a feel for how much that may be influenced by the large volume of bets that were placed when a Tory majority still seemed to be more or less a foregone conclusion?
Shades of Clinton v Sanders? I remember Sanders underperformed the exit poll in nearly all contests in Dem primary - theory was that his supporters louder and this exagerrated the lead - possible comparison?
Much better for the Conservatives in Newcastle than the exit poll expected
Yep Kellner saying the same. Was expecting something like 7%.
Curtice says expected Newcastle less than av swing because Leave area. So NB there are untested in previous elections assumptions in the exit poll model.
I think we need to be cautious. Real shocker for Curtice and the crew if their methods failed so significantly. I think we're being screwed by really weird variations across the country.
Already I'm seeing rumbles on twitter that this could 'stop' Brexit...this could get very nasty very quickly
Brexit can't realistically be stopped, now that Article 50 has been invoked. The question is, what kind of Brexit. If the woman whose answer to that question was just "Brexit means Brexit" is on the way out, that can only be a step forward.
It can, the EU would probably let us cancel it.
I think this is true - if the UK elected an explicitly Remain-backing PM this election I'm sure the EU leaders would be delighted to welcome the UK back into the fold.
However, there is another political consideration here - would any potential PM after this election, from Conservative or Labour (in the latter case I guess we can be pretty sure it would be Corbyn, the former maybe not so sure!) dare to cancel Article 50?
Whoever wins this election, they were not elected on a Cancel Article 50 ticket and the backlash against it would be severe.
What is more plausible, perhaps in a Coalition of Chaos type of arrangement, is trying to get the EU to accept a "temporary" withdrawal of Article 50 "while the UK redetermines its future", perhaps via a second referendum. An outright cancellation of Project Brexit would surely only have been on the cards if the Lib Dems had won it for the 48%?
Exit poll looking just a touch wobbly. But early days.
BBC on these results facing their worst exit poll since 1987, then they forecast Thatcher just scraping past Kinnock with a 26 seat majority, once the results came in Thatcher won a 102 seat majority
FFS, we're stuck with the BBC Scotland coverage here while there are actually English results coming in which are not being covered at all. Ridiculous.
Comments
Will be interesting to see how Sunderland South compares to the exit poll. From what I read, that is a big postal voting seat. Labour underperforming here could be a sign of what you say.
In the most moderate scenario I can imagine, you'd see UKIP on 25%-30% in the polls. (This is not in the least bit outlandish, given their previous polling highs and the backlash an unmandated No Brexit would cause. Even No Brexit With Mandate could conceivably see a UKIP resurrection.)
I'm not sure what the most severe plausible scenario is. But it would not be pretty.
I think Remainers need to be very, very, very, very careful what they wish for here.
Lib Dem nailed on to lose seats in England....
IF the exit poll is correct (who knows at this stage), we don't even have a coalition of chaos - just the chaos.
It's in the marginals that it counts, and the Tory-Lab swing may well be greater there.
Possibly Con doing well in WWC lab seats, but not enough to win them.
Stoke central byelection result, in an actual election.
Screwed by FPTP.
The UKIP vote seems to have gone 50/50 in the end.
We need to see what damage TM has done in the south and the shire marginals.
Curtice and Fisher know their stuff.
Does anyone have a feel for how much that may be influenced by the large volume of bets that were placed when a Tory majority still seemed to be more or less a foregone conclusion?
Grn 725
LD 908
Cons 12324
UKIP 2379
Lab 24675
Swing from Lab to Tories in Sunderland
Exit poll a load of bollocks.
In northern marginals this is going to make a massive difference.
I'm still thinking Tory Maj 50 ok...
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats
LDs will probably get 7% of the vote in Scotland, but more than 10% of the seats.
Bonkers.
And they'll get 8 or 9% of the vote in England, and less than 1% of the seats.
However, there is another political consideration here - would any potential PM after this election, from Conservative or Labour (in the latter case I guess we can be pretty sure it would be Corbyn, the former maybe not so sure!) dare to cancel Article 50?
Whoever wins this election, they were not elected on a Cancel Article 50 ticket and the backlash against it would be severe.
What is more plausible, perhaps in a Coalition of Chaos type of arrangement, is trying to get the EU to accept a "temporary" withdrawal of Article 50 "while the UK redetermines its future", perhaps via a second referendum. An outright cancellation of Project Brexit would surely only have been on the cards if the Lib Dems had won it for the 48%?
Which has been closer to the results so far: ICM or the Exit Poll?