Sunderland Grn 725 LD 908 Cons 12324 UKIP 2379 Lab 24675 Swing from Lab to Tories in Sunderland
Early results in Newcastle and Sunderland not been representative of the country in the past few elections. And remember a lot of people were saying that Tories were doing great in the NE when compared to other regions in the country eg the South and London
Exit poll does not stack up, expect to end up on 335-340 seats
Still got a majority and May gone. Not too bad.
Not sure, if she increases her majority as she would with 335-340 May could well stay, would not be an overwhelming mandate no but would be a mandate all the same, though she may now be a bit more willing to compromise with the EU than she was before
Looks like two party politics in England. But also a Brexit election with Newcastle better for Labour (REMAIN) and Sunderland for the Tories (LEAVE). Could radically change country's political map.
You have to wonder if Mrs May has deliberately lost the election because she realises the folly of BREXIT. Maybe she wants the coalition of chaos to take the rap for Cameron's error of judgement.
FFS, we're stuck with the BBC Scotland coverage here while there are actually English results coming in which are not being covered at all. Ridiculous.
Isn't BBC1 England available anywhere down the EPG? Or is it on BBC News or Parliament?
Tory 2017 still lower than Tory + UKIP 2015 in Sunderland. That's a good result. If WWC were breaking against Corbyn's Labour that would have been noticeable there I reckon - hasn't happened.
FFS, we're stuck with the BBC Scotland coverage here while there are actually English results coming in which are not being covered at all. Ridiculous.
I have BBC England on the News channel, and BBC Scotland on the Parliament channel
I really wouldn't read too much into results in safe (Labour) seats.
What we need to see is results in the marginals, both Con hold and Lab hold ones.
Here is the list of seats where we need information - all others are irrelevant
Ayr, Carrick & Cummnock Ochil & South Perthshire East othian East REnfreshwire Aberdeen South Perth & North Perthshire Fife North East DCT D&G BRS Aberdeen South Bath
Shades of Clinton v Sanders? I remember Sanders underperformed the exit poll in nearly all contests in Dem primary - theory was that his supporters louder and this exagerrated the lead - possible comparison?
Shades of Clinton v Trump too, exit polls had Clinton winner, Trump won Electoral College. Same in Israel in 2015, exit polls forecast a tie between Likud and centre left Zionist Union, Netanyahu and Likud won by 5%
Just as a point of fact, the great majority of constituencies in England & Wales are Brexit. And the Tories have only one way to go in Scotland, which is up.
There just aren't that many chattering class constituencies Labour can win. Chipping Barnet, held even in 1997? Not a bloody chance.
Montgomerie should STFU. He's going to look like an idiot if the Tories do indeed get a majority,
You'll never make it as a pundit unless you're willing to look like an idiot, but don't let it slow you down from predicting in future when you are wrong!
Comments
What we need to see is results in the marginals, both Con hold and Lab hold ones.
The first Scottish seat will be fascinating (and I wish this were all boring)
Lab 68/60
Con 23/30
UKIP 6/6
LD 2/2
GRN 1/2
Which seems odd given the narrative coming into the election, but still.
(but was spot on in 2010)
UKIP voters polled have lied about who they were going to vote for orrrrr, to put it another way
Shy UKIP-to-Lab switchers.
Labour targets:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0
Labour defences:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1VAUtJZzfnfYS_uarczPdRBJ1XgVNGfvyBU6Adz5YDGc/edit#gid=0
"I'm hearing X"
"I'm not sure, you cannot believe everything you hear"
"I heard it from a source I trust"
"Yes, but I'm hearing it from you"
Just kidding
It's got very big Con gains in Scotland and Wales
Plenty of scope for Con to underperform in other areas.
5 weeks ago, I told my girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.
Due around 1am
Two seats is not enough information to be confident, in my view.
When are the next few expected, and when do we get some bellwethers?
Tory exit poll figures must have a large downside risk I think.
*clutches straws*
Not sure that's enough to save Theresa though.
Ayr, Carrick & Cummnock
Ochil & South Perthshire
East othian
East REnfreshwire
Aberdeen South
Perth & North Perthshire
Fife North East
DCT
D&G
BRS
Aberdeen South
Bath
That said they told me Con majority was nailed on 60+
Where could they gain:
East Dunbartonshire
CS&ER
RL&S
Fife NE
Edinburgh West
Argyll & Bute
7 Scottish seats? Quite possible.
So far.
There just aren't that many chattering class constituencies Labour can win. Chipping Barnet, held even in 1997? Not a bloody chance.
I think Con will do very badly in the south (Brexit) and the shire marginals (WFA and social care)
The exit poll is right IMO but we shall see.