Undefined discussion subject.
Comments
-
The early results show the exit poll is wrong, even if there certainly will not be a 120 Tory majorityCasino_Royale said:These Tory sources convinced this is wrong the same ones who said a 80-120 majority was a dead cert only a few hour ago??
0 -
She better fucking resign if she does not increase her majority. Off the scale bad for worst Con leader based on what we've seen so far.MaxPB said:
So that's 331 to 329 for the Tories and she's given up the centre ground of politics to the left. Fucking useless.SouthamObserver said:0 -
When is the first marginal seat declared?0
-
Alas no.MyBurningEars said:
Does she have a lovely shiny foreign passport, TSE?TheScreamingEagles said:Confession time.
5 weeks ago, I told my girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.
0 -
After 2 of 650 seats declared...
Con +8.6
Lab +7.0
LD -0.6
UKIP -13.4
...if my Excel formulas are correct...0 -
Ruth Davidson's Party's preformance crucial now.0
-
@IsabelBerwick: Michael Gove is talking about a second referendum. He's not keen. But it's being mentioned and It's not even 11pm.0
-
Yepswing_voter said:Question, does the FTPA still apply?
0 -
Has to - it isn't repealed yet.swing_voter said:Question, does the FTPA still apply?
I wonder if it is a narrow majority, the Tories decide not to follow through on that manifesto promise to repeal it.0 -
Yes. It has not been repealed.swing_voter said:Question, does the FTPA still apply?
0 -
It'd be a very bad night if they weren't.CarlottaVance said:0 -
She is surely toast, whatever. But otoh she has serious form for vindictive dismissals so you may be right.JosiasJessop said:If I were a Conservative MP, I'd have been rather quiescent after the exit poll, and not have been criticising May ...
0 -
If May ends up with a small majority. That is failure.0
-
-
Laura K pretty much thinks May is finished.0
-
It's enough to allow her to do Brexit then bugger off well ahead of an election campaign.DavidL said:Based on these first 2 seats I am forecasting a repeat of 2015 with the Tories slowing crawling to a very small majority over the night.
Not sure that's enough to save Theresa though.0 -
2010, yes, but they didn't predict the Tory majority in 2015.AndyJS said:
Odd. They got it almost spot on in the last 3 or 4 elections.The_Apocalypse said:This exit poll could be absolute rubbish.
0 -
so limited chance of election come 2018 for exampleRobD said:
Yepswing_voter said:Question, does the FTPA still apply?
0 -
Either way, Theresa May's mandate for the Brexit negotiations is shot. If she stays on or the tories do, what are we looking at in terms of Brexit negotiations?0
-
Just after prof curtice got his own twitter fan club... I'm still hoping for any Tory major at this pointMarqueeMark said:Be ironic if the biggest polling failure this election was the usually spot-on exit poll......
0 -
What's the ETA for those?Alistair said:
Here is the list of seats where we need information - all others are irrelevantTheScreamingEagles said:I really wouldn't read too much into results in safe (Labour) seats.
What we need to see is results in the marginals, both Con hold and Lab hold ones.
Ayr, Carrick & Cummnock
Ochil & South Perthshire
East othian
East REnfreshwire
Aberdeen South
Perth & North Perthshire
Fife North East
DCT
D&G
BRS
Aberdeen South
Bath0 -
Well we all knew that - Con can rely on Wales and Scotland now (sounds weird).CarlottaVance said:0 -
Wow, that is a proper bet. Chapeau.TheScreamingEagles said:Confession time.
5 weeks ago, I told my girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.0 -
Well I would hope so. Those are the nailed on ones.CarlottaVance said:0 -
In unrelated news, I'm hoping that my Irish passport arrives in the next few days.0
-
Sky News: Tessy May reeling, thought a 60 plus seat majority was in the bag.0
-
When hasn't he looked like an idiot?The_Apocalypse said:Montgomerie should STFU. He's going to look like an idiot if the Tories do indeed get a majority,
0 -
We need to define "rubbish" and "almost spot on". If the exit poll under estimates CON by the same margin as last time, then we're back to a small Con maj at approx 330.AndyJS said:
Odd. They got it almost spot on in the last 3 or 4 elections.The_Apocalypse said:This exit poll could be absolute rubbish.
0 -
Tories thought they were on for 60 plus majority - and Jack W was even more bullish0
-
One thing I think we can say for sure is that Corbyn has beaten Miliband & Brown in national voteshare.0
-
0
-
End of the night I think the Tories might still scrape 3260
-
An expensive betMortimer said:
Wow, that is a proper bet. Chapeau.TheScreamingEagles said:Confession time.
5 weeks ago, I told my girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.0 -
Plymout Herald says Labour is confident they have gained Plymouth Sutton and Devonport, not so sure about Moor View0
-
-
Yes.swing_voter said:Question, does the FTPA still apply?
0 -
They have adjusted their model to take account of brexit vote, so at least that aspect is untested.Sunil_Prasannan said:
2010, yes, but they didn't predict the Tory majority in 2015.AndyJS said:
Odd. They got it almost spot on in the last 3 or 4 elections.The_Apocalypse said:This exit poll could be absolute rubbish.
0 -
Nick Clegg looking chipper on ITV - think he knows he is safe0
-
When I was on my coastal walk, I did an interview with the local BBC radio station in Hull. After the call, the host asked me which route I was taking on the way into the city. When I told him, his reply was something like: "Oh God, don't go that way, you'll get mugged."Gallowgate said:
Suburbs nowhere near as dodgy as Birmingham, Leeds & Manchester.JosiasJessop said:
Newcastle is a much under-appreciated city. I love the place. Though some of the suburbs are dodgy.Sunil_Prasannan said:Newcastle has a better train station than Sunderland
I was fine.
Another BBC presenter gave me advice to park our motorhome on a certain street near the station in Preston. We did so, and had some hilarious interactions with the locals. When I told her the next day, she said: "Fuck. I meant the other end of that road."0 -
Also remember Exit isn't forecasting any Con losses to LD.
There has to be downside there.0 -
-
On the accuracy of the exit poll and the swing to and from the Conservatives in individual seats.
The key is the UKIP vote share in 2015
Above the national share (plus a bit) the seat should swing to the Conservatives; below it should swing to Labour
Newcastle Central had 15% UKIP in 2015, which is slightly above the English national share of 14% and saw a small swing to Labour; Sunderland South had 21% UKIP and saw a swing to the Conservatives.
The exit poll looks good so far.0 -
IS there a constituency by constiuency breakdown of the exit poll?0
-
Putting the knife in Rasputin will be some small satisfaction.DavidL said:Based on these first 2 seats I am forecasting a repeat of 2015 with the Tories slowing crawling to a very small majority over the night.
Not sure that's enough to save Theresa though.
I will reserve my place in the queue.0 -
Why don't we do exit polls the way that the French do?
0 -
Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne
An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs0 -
While that prediction was out there even for pessimistic predictions, given the locals and Copeland and the like, in fairness to experts, it really does seem that for once a good campaign for one side and poor campaign for the other truly made a big difference and changed a lot of minds.bigjohnowls said:0 -
Jack Straw says he would be 'delighted' if Labour make gains under Corbyn despite having made previous predictions that he would lead Labour to oblivion0
-
Foxes everywhere must be celebrating already....
(Liam excepted)0 -
Rich people can afford to be dumb. We have to graft for our supper. Does your bet come good with a small Con maj? That's still possible.Casino_Royale said:
When hasn't he looked like an idiot?The_Apocalypse said:Montgomerie should STFU. He's going to look like an idiot if the Tories do indeed get a majority,
0 -
Sky News Live YouTube channel works internationally.Tim_B said:Anyone have a video feed available in the US (I'm stuck with no access to BBC TV channels)
https://youtube.com/watch?v=y60wDzZt8yg0 -
Surely the Tories would not choose Boris. He is actively harmful to UK interests.0
-
Con maj still strong favourite on BF at 1.51.0
-
I'm not really sure how I'm feeling. It's somewhere between joy and fear.
0 -
Looks like the same source is briefing both Tom Newton Dunn and myself.0
-
-
It is situations like this that show how silly party rules for electing leaders are these days. I don't see how parties can conduct national membership leadership elections for potential prime ministers, where the existing prime minister has been forced to resign.0
-
Where are the patriarchs Jack W and John O with their 100 seat majority predictions?!
;-)0 -
It is the night of the full moon. What a beautiful moon !
I am in Cardiff celebrating.0 -
Been quaffing?TheScreamingEagles said: 0 -
Curtis looking very stressed!0
-
Somebody said 30% in Houghton would be good for the Tories - they got 29.7_0
-
Tell him your wife has just gone into labour.Blue_rog said:Fuck I've a meeting with my boss at 9.00 tomorrow, trying to think of a good reason to cancel
0 -
Yes, please tell George to give up the other shit and come and save the party.TheScreamingEagles said:Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne
An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs0 -
Ruth a massive winner if it plays out like they think.TheScreamingEagles said:Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne
An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs0 -
Exit poll doesn't take into account postal votes!0
-
Does anyone have expected decleration times?0
-
Time to, ahem, lay that bet off?Floater said:
An expensive betMortimer said:
Wow, that is a proper bet. Chapeau.TheScreamingEagles said:Confession time.
5 weeks ago, I told my girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.0 -
I think that's probably right. So she is toast. Who's next? If only George was there.SeanT said:
Under 30 majority she has to goDavidL said:Based on these first 2 seats I am forecasting a repeat of 2015 with the Tories slowing crawling to a very small majority over the night.
Not sure that's enough to save Theresa though.0 -
Laying that is good value.Carolus_Rex said:Con maj still strong favourite on BF at 1.51.
0 -
ICM, the brass standard !0
-
Who's your preferred alternative? I liked Rudd, but she's toast apparently.SeanT said:
Under 30 majority she has to goDavidL said:Based on these first 2 seats I am forecasting a repeat of 2015 with the Tories slowing crawling to a very small majority over the night.
Not sure that's enough to save Theresa though.0 -
Or just punch drunk.RobD said:0 -
Nobody made Cameron quit...TheScreamingEagles said:Three Tory winners tonight. Ruth Davidson, David Cameron, & George Osborne
An unmitigated disaster for the Tories that none of them are MPs0 -
Think Curtice has underestimated how much postal voters will have trended to the Tories, relative to on-the-day voters, compared to last time. Tory majority on.0
-
Oh boy.TheScreamingEagles said:Confession time.
5 weeks ago, I told my girlfriend I'd marry her if Corbyn became PM.0 -
Curtice on BBC explains treatment of postal vote. They assume same swing postal as in person.0
-
UK doesn't have some polling stations closing early like France.DM_Andy said:Why don't we do exit polls the way that the French do?
I think exit poll to result movement for Con will be like 2015 - I'm on Con maj on BF.0 -
The foxes are safe from being torn apart in a terrifying death from a pack of dogs....rejoice....0
-
Obviously it doesn't meet expectations, or suggest the risk paid off.Jonathan said:If May ends up with a small majority. That is failure.
But there's something I don't quite understand about why people are so down about it. The Tories only have a narrow majority now, another majority of similar size (perhaps slightly larger if TSE's sources are right) isn't really any worse, but it still buys two more years on the clock. And a solid national voteshare brings voters into the pool (bring back, perhaps, for ex-Kippers) for future elections. These two advantages of a narrow win with good voteshare (which is the most likely form of narrow win) are almost never mentioned, but both seem to me to have considerable value. Arguably outweighed in value by the loss of momentum and opportunity, or the failure to meet expectations, but not total write-offs either.0 -
SimonStClare said:
Tell him your wife has just gone into labour.Blue_rog said:Fuck I've a meeting with my boss at 9.00 tomorrow, trying to think of a good reason to cancel
It seems the whole country has gone into Labour.
0 -
It effectively assumes the same swing as in personSlackbladder said:Exit poll doesn't take into account postal votes!
0 -
I don't think so. The BBC poll was a done the day before with 8,000 voters in 200 constituencies.Sunil_Prasannan said:0
