Any chance we're so used to the exit poll being right we're placing too much faith in it?
It’s a Curtice exit poll, so there is every reason to believe it will be close to the final outcome, but it could be +/- 20 seats or so. – That’s just my opinion of course.
BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.
Does this make sense???
No. Exit poll is fucked. Which direction however is not so clear.
If you don't which direction it's fucked in, why are you so sure it's fucked at all?
Because the predicted gains are pretty odd, with identical places a few km either side of a border flipping opposite ways.
Then you should be looking into why that's being predicted, and considering whether or not it's right.
Honestly, all people said about that YouGov model was "It's unbelievable, it doesn't feel right". Now the exit poll is saying essentially the same thing. Maybe people need to be more questioning of their gut feeling, if they can't identify any flaws in the evidence that goes against it.
Oh. So today I was tasked with doing a sweepstake in my office. I came up with Tory seat bands that seemed fair (smaller around 350 to 370). I drew 305-328.
Oh. So today I was tasked with doing a sweepstake in my office. I came up with Tory seat bands that seemed fair (smaller around 350 to 370). I drew 305-328.
Ruth Davidson is far from lightweight. She took over the Scots Tories when they were close to having the life support machine turned off. She is a far superior campaigner to May
James Wharton in Stockton South could be in trouble according to Exit Poll.
Having been at the heart of Labour strategy in Stockton South and co-written our leaflets, I am a sad man tonight to be up here in Crieff and not at the count as I should be...
Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.
Could end up with that, PM Boris with Lib Dem support putting an EEA/EFTA plan through.
Totally happy with that. Fuck off Theresa, you silly woman
UKIP would surge if that was the result but I would also accept that having voted Remain last year. May to be fair to her voted Remain but decided to give the Brexit voting North and Midlands the immigration controls they voted for, if they have not voted for that and to give May the mandate she needed for hard Brexit as a Tory I am now tempted to say sod the North and Midlands, let's have as soft a Brexit as possible and flood the North and Midlands with Poles and Estonians and Romanians!
Exit poll shouldn't need 68% in H&SS to be right, achieving an overall swing of 4.5% is harder when you're already over 50% vote share. In 1997, the Sunderland seats were swinging 9% to 10%, moving the predictions down to a Labour majority of around 100 from the initial near 200. But more marginal constituencies got 17% and 18% swings making the exit poll much more correct. (Still don't believe the exit poll though)
Jeremy Corbyn - I truly dislike your politics, and I believe you manifesto was a (positive) nonsense, but well done, even though you are likely to be the second most popular party, not the most popular, clearly people loved what you were selling.
Oh. So today I was tasked with doing a sweepstake in my office. I came up with Tory seat bands that seemed fair (smaller around 350 to 370). I drew 305-328.
This could be 1997 levels of tactical voting back in play.
1 thing we didn't discuss much - tories have been in power 7 years. A generic anti government swing was never really factored in much. Perhaps people just generally are tiring of the tories.
The exit poll does seem problematic - it whiffs a little, but is also plausible.
It's the Lab -> UKIP -> Con voters that are the key, the dementia tax policy and her other shitty policies ruined that swing and drove scores of them back to Labour.
If my impression from Broxtowe (which the BBC is showing as a Labour gain) is right, even getting close would be dependent on the huge increase in youth vote, coupled with more or less hanging on in the WWC areas.
If that's right, I doubt if Sunderland and Newscastle will show a huge Labour jump.
Nobody overreact - if the proportions are less than the exit poll suggests for this seat, well, the exit poll is really more about the seats changing hands, which might well swing more than seats that were already very strongly Labour.
Already I'm seeing rumbles on twitter that this could 'stop' Brexit...this could get very nasty very quickly
Brexit can't realistically be stopped, now that Article 50 has been invoked. The question is, what kind of Brexit. If the woman whose answer to that question was just "Brexit means Brexit" is on the way out, that can only be a step forward.
Jeremy Corbyn - I truly dislike your politics, and I believe you manifesto was a (positive) nonsense, but well done, even though you are likely to be the second most popular party, not the most popular, clearly people loved what you were selling.
Corbyn was the conservative in this election - let's get the family silver back.
Fuck George Osborne. Fucking idiot. He took all of those jobs and left parliament. Fucking tool. He could be PM by Monday if he had run.
LOL. You were a Brexiter. You destroyed Cameron and Osborne. You have reaped this.
(Naturally, if the exit poll is really wrong and May gets a very workable majority I'll take all this back!)
Idiotic. Cameron and Osborne lost an unloseable referendum. By taking us alll for wankers with a shit campaign. It was all their fault. An odd echo of Theresa May.
Already I'm seeing rumbles on twitter that this could 'stop' Brexit...this could get very nasty very quickly
Brexit can't realistically be stopped, now that Article 50 has been invoked. The question is, what kind of Brexit. If the woman whose answer to that question was just "Brexit means Brexit" is on the way out, that can only be a step forward.
Comments
Honestly, all people said about that YouGov model was "It's unbelievable, it doesn't feel right". Now the exit poll is saying essentially the same thing. Maybe people need to be more questioning of their gut feeling, if they can't identify any flaws in the evidence that goes against it.
(Naturally, if the exit poll is really wrong and May gets a very workable majority I'll take all this back!)
Lab 50%
Tory 21%
LD 14%
UKIP/BNP 8%
Ind 7%
2015:
Lab 55%
UKIP 22%
Tory 19%
Green/LD 5%
2017:
UKIP/Green/LD/Ind: 12%?
Good result for Tories: 30%
Indifferent: 25%
Bad: 20%
Long night ahead...
Sleep!
Very exciting and very glad I put a couple of quid on spreadsheet Phil as next pm.
6 minute abs indeed.
It will be interesting watching PM Corbyn fuck up the country. Hopefully he won't last too long.
1 thing we didn't discuss much - tories have been in power 7 years. A generic anti government swing was never really factored in much. Perhaps people just generally are tiring of the tories.
https://medium.com/@roreiy/i-tried-to-write-a-neoliberal-troll-case-for-jeremy-corbyn-i-really-did-69a37b2d5eb
If the UK is on its way out, we may as well go out with a bang.
We will miss you though
Sunderland beaten
Time to get qualified and vamoose for me.
IG con midpoint up to 332 though.....
https://twitter.com/Robert___Harris/status/872935091491811328
If that's right, I doubt if Sunderland and Newscastle will show a huge Labour jump.
Labour up and tories up, but labour up by more, turnout up 67% from 60%. UKIP cratering and gone not to tories but all over
LD 1,812
Tories 9,534
UKIP 1,482
Lab 24,071
Green 595
+5.7% for Con
Maybe Tories heading for majority after all.