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Is there a unified place where all these seat predictions based on the Exit Poll are?0
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But if the 2015 exit poll understated the Tory seats wouldn't basing the comparison of it understand Tories today?glw said:BenedictWhite said:
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.MarkHopkins said:
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted.
Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.0 -
That was a good bet.foxinsoxuk said:0 -
Death of anything near UNS due to more younger voters voting, first time Brexit-voters voting, etc etc.kle4 said:
But why would it be?viewcode said:
Yes it can.The_Apocalypse said:
WHAT? The exit poll can't be that wrong.bigjohnowls said:OK after the Exit Poll
I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)0 -
Apologies - has anyone answered the question about how the Exit poll samples postal voters?0
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Look at Emily Thornberry on ITV. She's loving life.0
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glw said:BenedictWhite said:
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.MarkHopkins said:
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted.
Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.
In which case time will tell.glw said:BenedictWhite said:
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.MarkHopkins said:
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted.
Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.0 -
What worries me is that the Exit Poll will be wrong, but not in a way that's good for the Tories.waitingfortonight said:BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.
Does this make sense???0 -
Lab most seats @ 20/1 is intriguing.
I've nibbled.0 -
Yep. #millennialfightbackScott_P said:@Torcuil: Nice line from @MatthewParris3 - this is the revenge of the young for Brexit.
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Curtice on the BBC0
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Something to vote for for a change?BenedictWhite said:
That's very high for there isn't it?Sandpit said:Sunderland south - turnout 61%.
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At least May managed to outlast Bonar-Law...0
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Houghton & Sunderland S prediction from exit poll:
Lab 68
Con 23
UKIP 6
LD 2
GRN 10 -
Doesn't matter. May (or a successor as Tory leader) only has to resign as PM if an alternative has a majority. If LD doesn't back Corbyn, he doesn't.WhisperingOracle said:
No chance of LD support , post-Brexit, I think.ThreeQuidder said:ITEPIR and the LDs hold the "no coalition" deal, it's a Tory minority government.
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The exit poll does seem problematic - it whiffs a little, but is also plausible.0
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If you don't which direction it's fucked in, why are you so sure it's fucked at all?Chameleon said:
No. Exit poll is fucked. Which direction however is not so clear.waitingfortonight said:BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.
Does this make sense???0 -
Exit poll looks too good for Lab. 68 in SS sounds high.0
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The tories must start winning the young back.0
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Worcester??
Labour need a 6.7% swing
Extraordinary.
But the tories deserve to do shit. their campaign was shit, their leader was shit.
And now we're all in the shit0 -
144 polling stations or 144 constituencies?glw said:BenedictWhite said:
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.MarkHopkins said:
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted.
Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.0 -
I don't see a majority government losing its majority and then struggling on in minority status. is there comparable precedent anywhere?0
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Agreed, how about fees back down to £3k?Tykejohnno said:The tories must start winning the young back.
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The population of Wales is significantly older than many parts of England, and I think with a lower level of graduates outside Cardiff.MaxPB said:What's weird is that in Wales the Tories are making the kind of gains we expected against Labour in working class seats but they aren't in England. Are people that different?
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The youth has grown up under Tory austerity!Tykejohnno said:The tories must start winning the young back.
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Any chance we're so used to the exit poll being right we're placing too much faith in it?0
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Curtice rulling out Tories getting much bigger a majority than 2015 (if they get one at all).
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Scotland?Paristonda said:I don't see a majority government losing its majority and then struggling on in minority status. is there comparable precedent anywhere?
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They don't take account of postals.alex. said:Apologies - has anyone answered the question about how the Exit poll samples postal voters?
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Ruth Davidson is currently favourite on Betfair for next Conservative Leader.0
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Curtice thinks we can rule out
- Con landslide
-Labour largest party
Thinks that Con leader will be PM
Thinks we can't rule out Con majority0 -
But to be out by 30-50 Tory seats that would require? Come on.Chameleon said:
Death of anything near UNS due to more younger voters voting, first time Brexit-voters voting, etc etc.kle4 said:
But why would it be?viewcode said:
Yes it can.The_Apocalypse said:
WHAT? The exit poll can't be that wrong.bigjohnowls said:OK after the Exit Poll
I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)0 -
Remember that the Millennials are a bigger cohort than the Baby Boom.
As I pointed out earlier today...0 -
Because the predicted gains are pretty odd, with identical places a few km either side of a border flipping opposite ways.Chris said:
If you don't which direction it's fucked in, why are you so sure it's fucked at all?Chameleon said:
No. Exit poll is fucked. Which direction however is not so clear.waitingfortonight said:BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.
Does this make sense???
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The regional sub samples of the exit poll feel off, I could imagine Mike Katz getting Hendon but Labour gain Finchley feels beyond possibility. At the same time the Tories sweeping through North East Wales,I don't see it.
It would be interesting if English Labour have done better than in Wales and Scotland considering both Jones and Dugdale have been at pains to distance themselves from Corbyn.AHMatlock said:Wouldn't miss Gobby Soubry in Broxtowe, but am sceptical that we have done that much better in Wales and Scotland if the result is so poor in the English marginals.
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I'll be £100s poorer (net) on my bets if it's really NOM. But my business will do better under a non-Tory govt. Staying fully or half in the EU (Norway-style) is a plus.Chris_A said:
We can live in hope. I'll be several thousand quid poorer tomorrow but it'll be worth it.Casino_Royale said:I have a horrible feeling the final result will be worse than this for May and the Tories.
Swings and roundabouts.
aka: betting as insurance.0 -
Anyone else seen that Wonder Woman film? It's pretty good.0
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Don't worry we wouldn't use themviewcode said:
OH FUCK. IF THAT HAPPENS WE'RE GREECE WITH NUKES.Morris_Dancer said:...a Lab-SNP coalition could be viable...
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The drinks are on you! Shame it had to be the nicest Tory thoughfoxinsoxuk said:0 -
If this exit poll is correct, what sort of figures should we be looking for in Sunderland and Newcastle?
Increased Labour majorities? Or is it too MoE to make any determinations?0 -
Bridget Phillipson looks a bit peeved but maybe she just always looks like that.0
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Having looked at it more, it looks like tactical voting against the SNP, plus a youth turnout, plus overcompensation by many opinion pollsters, could explain this result.JosiasJessop said:The exit poll does seem problematic - it whiffs a little, but is also plausible.
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I think if people were voting the same way as last time you would theoretically expect a very similar degree of error. Of course a lot has happened since then, Brexit and of course Corbyn and MayCharles said:But if the 2015 exit poll understated the Tory seats wouldn't basing the comparison of it understand Tories today?
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We will see but she could get a majority with DUP if on 320+. If she is below that she would need LD support and only Hammond could get that on a soft Brexit platform. Otherwise Tories go into opposition with Boris leader on a full Brexit platform, Corbyn becomes PM in pact with SNP, PC, SF , SDLP, Greens etc and he does soft Brexit,The_Apocalypse said:
LOL I think the Tories will want her out even in that scenario.HYUFD said:Reuters reporting May saying she will go if she does not get 320, so could be PM Hammond by weekend on that basis
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A lightweight (figuratively) joke artist? That would be a big mistake.Alistair said:Ruth Davidson is currently favourite on Betfair for next Conservative Leader.
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Instead of eating them?? (only kidding!)Tykejohnno said:The tories must start winning the young back.
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That's what I was thinking. The seat pattern looks bizarre and unprecedented - a bit like Brexit, but in reverse.Scott_P said:@Torcuil: Nice line from @MatthewParris3 - this is the revenge of the young for Brexit.
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But would we get the same though, that is my point. We are not them, our waters have been EU controlled for a long time would they be willing to piss of their own fishing industries to help us. The myriad of hurdles ahead makes my head hurt.rcs1000 said:
Norway and Iceland are not members of the CFP and have full control of their waters.HaroldO said:
Think of this for a moment; In order to get that we need to hand over fishing rights say, the SNP say "no" as they want control back with them in Holyrood and know that if they hand them back to the EU there would be uproar at the next election. Where do we go from there?foxinsoxuk said:
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.isam said:Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
With FPTP you need strength and strength alone, you cannot govern in coalitions in the long term. This is why I support a change to AV or PR to try and change our politics.
Fuck it, I'm off to bed.0 -
Houghton & Sunderland S prediction from exit poll:JosiasJessop said:If this exit poll is correct, what sort of figures should we be looking for in Sunderland and Newcastle?
Increased Labour majorities? Or is it too MoE to make any determinations?
Lab 68
Con 23
UKIP 6
LD 2
GRN 10 -
I don't think I can cope.Freggles said:As much as I love politics.... if we have another election this year it's going to be utterly febrile
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Well that could make a massive difference couldn't it? How many youngsters use postal votes? Won't that exaggerate the presumed assumption that postal votes reflect the wider electorate?TheScreamingEagles said:
They don't take account of postals.alex. said:Apologies - has anyone answered the question about how the Exit poll samples postal voters?
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Of course they have. They've spent years building a coalition of roughly centrist voters. May went on a walking holiday in Wales and decided to throw the whole thing up in the air and target a whole bunch of different voters with only 6 weeks notice.tlg86 said:
What I'm worried about is that the Tories have been targeting the wrong seats.William_H said:Wow, we might go Labour here in Milton Keynes South according to the exit poll. Majority of nearly 9000 and 8000 UKIP supporters. Would be amazing.
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LDs aren't going anywhere near the Tories after the coalition. Might not go near Labour either tbh.
Labour may only have SNP/Green/PC to rely on.0 -
Current mood: smug.0
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68% for Labour in the first Sunderland seat.JosiasJessop said:If this exit poll is correct, what sort of figures should we be looking for in Sunderland and Newcastle?
Increased Labour majorities? Or is it too MoE to make any determinations?0 -
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Very, very unlikely, I concede, I just hope that the next Tory leader isn't a greying cardboard cutout, or Boris.kle4 said:
But to be out by 30-50 Tory seats that would require? Come on.Chameleon said:
Death of anything near UNS due to more younger voters voting, first time Brexit-voters voting, etc etc.kle4 said:
But why would it be?viewcode said:
Yes it can.The_Apocalypse said:
WHAT? The exit poll can't be that wrong.bigjohnowls said:OK after the Exit Poll
I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)0 -
Go for that platform and half the parliamentary party doesn't go with him.HYUFD said:
We will see but she could get a majority with DUP if on 320+. If she is below that she would need LD support and only Hammond could get that on a soft Brexit platformThe_Apocalypse said:
LOL I think the Tories will want her out even in that scenario.HYUFD said:Reuters reporting May saying she will go if she does not get 320, so could be PM Hammond by weekend on that basis
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Would love it if Amber Augusta Rudd has lost. I think she'll hang on though.0
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May is finished.KentRising said:Curtice rulling out Tories getting much bigger a majority than 2015 (if they get one at all).
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Who did this exit poll? Survation??Monksfield said:Exit poll looks too good for Lab. 68 in SS sounds high.
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EU would v likely go for that and wd get a huge majority in parliament so not a bad idea at allrcs1000 said:
Five years EFTA/EEA followed by a referendum on the status post that? Wouldn't be a dumb decision.MaxPB said:
Could end up with that, PM Boris with Lib Dem support putting an EEA/EFTA plan through.foxinsoxuk said:
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.isam said:Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
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Tories had 1 seat in Wales & Scotland combined in 1997 didn;t they?
Now they'll have over 20 won;t they?
Amazing0 -
Cheers (and to RobD)DanSmith said:
68% for Labour in the first Sunderland seat.JosiasJessop said:If this exit poll is correct, what sort of figures should we be looking for in Sunderland and Newcastle?
Increased Labour majorities? Or is it too MoE to make any determinations?0 -
YouGov, Survation
I'm sorry.
Yours sincerely, Miss A0 -
If the exit poll is dead on it's another election.The_Apocalypse said:LDs aren't going anywhere near the Tories after the coalition. Might not go near Labour either tbh.
Labour may only have SNP/Green/PC to rely on.
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Ah, yes, ok good point! Still, it was not quite the same fall from grace as the tories now (although the SNP now is also suffering a huge fall from grace if this is right)RobD said:
Scotland?Paristonda said:I don't see a majority government losing its majority and then struggling on in minority status. is there comparable precedent anywhere?
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It won't be anywhere near that in a safe seat where Labour are a banker.DanSmith said:
68% for Labour in the first Sunderland seat.JosiasJessop said:If this exit poll is correct, what sort of figures should we be looking for in Sunderland and Newcastle?
Increased Labour majorities? Or is it too MoE to make any determinations?
Ignore the result from the two Tyne/Wear seats.0 -
Oh good. I was worried for a bit...Floater said:
Don't worry we wouldn't use themviewcode said:
OH FUCK. IF THAT HAPPENS WE'RE GREECE WITH NUKES.Morris_Dancer said:...a Lab-SNP coalition could be viable...
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She's the tories best hope with David Davis for now.Alistair said:Ruth Davidson is currently favourite on Betfair for next Conservative Leader.
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!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
They don't take account of postals.alex. said:Apologies - has anyone answered the question about how the Exit poll samples postal voters?
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If the exit poll is even SLIGHTLY optimistic for the Conservatives, we are headed for parliamentary gridlock.0
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The Rotherham Star:
"New: Labour sources say they are confident of holding all three Rotherham seats."
well, thanks!0 -
Fuck George Osborne. Fucking idiot. He took all of those jobs and left parliament. Fucking tool. He could be PM by Monday if he had run.HaroldO said:
Who's your money on?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Newcastle and Sunderland aren't exactly running at their normal speed. Recount?0
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If we get Soft Brexit/no Brexit - my dad will be mad. I'll be happy.0
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Good to see our DUP friends! 0
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The_Apocalypse said:
LDs aren't going anywhere near the Tories after the coalition. Might not go near Labour either tbh.
Labour may only have SNP/Green/PC to rely on.
Liberals will go in with Labour with single market as a price. That's my current thinking.0 -
Just need Tory major of 2 to win bet.....0
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LOLScott_P said:@KayBurley: Ladbrokes 5/4 on that May replaced as Tory leader before Christmas
Should read, before lunchtime0 -
But in 2010 they got the Tories spot on.FrankBooth said:
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
They don't take account of postals.alex. said:Apologies - has anyone answered the question about how the Exit poll samples postal voters?
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So my wittering on about Lusser's Law might be correct!Paristonda said:
Having looked at it more, it looks like tactical voting against the SNP, plus a youth turnout, plus overcompensation by many opinion pollsters, could explain this result.JosiasJessop said:The exit poll does seem problematic - it whiffs a little, but is also plausible.
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Nah, Tory minority or 'progressive' alliance minorityAndrew said:
If the exit poll is dead on it's another election.The_Apocalypse said:LDs aren't going anywhere near the Tories after the coalition. Might not go near Labour either tbh.
Labour may only have SNP/Green/PC to rely on.0 -
It's based on swing though, not raw votes, so if postals swing approximately the same way as on the day, it is right.FrankBooth said:
!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!TheScreamingEagles said:
They don't take account of postals.alex. said:Apologies - has anyone answered the question about how the Exit poll samples postal voters?
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Indeed. No one will go into coalition with ToriesAndrew said:
If the exit poll is dead on it's another election.The_Apocalypse said:LDs aren't going anywhere near the Tories after the coalition. Might not go near Labour either tbh.
Labour may only have SNP/Green/PC to rely on.0 -
Whatever you think it's fascinating. No declarations yet. Turnout higher than expected?0
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+1KentRising said:
Yes please!SandyRentool said:
#Priti4LeaderRobD said:
Yeah, a leadership election right now would be sub-optimal, lol.TheScreamingEagles said:
What's GO up to?
Go on Tories, you know it makes sense.0 -
The exit pollsters will have noted the slight errors last time and adjusted slightly for them .glw said:
I think if people were voting the same way as last time you would theoretically expect a very similar degree of error. Of course a lot has happened since then, Brexit and of course Corbyn and MayCharles said:But if the 2015 exit poll understated the Tory seats wouldn't basing the comparison of it understand Tories today?
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My longest shot is Lab take Cambourne and Redruth, the most WWC Cornish constituency at 40/1. It may be close.Sandpit said:
That was a good bet.foxinsoxuk said:
I based this on the Cornwall live poll that showed nearly all Cornish seats TCTC.0 -
Hey Sunil, maybe you haven’t been keeping up with current events, but we just got our asses kicked pal.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Who did this exit poll? Survation??Monksfield said:Exit poll looks too good for Lab. 68 in SS sounds high.
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UKIP would surge if that was the result but I would also accept that having voted Remain last year. May to be fair to her voted Remain but decided to give the Brexit voting North and Midlands the immigration controls they voted for, if they have not voted for that and to give May the mandate she needed for hard Brexit as a Tory I am now tempted to say sod the North and Midlands, let's have as soft a Brexit as possible and flood the North and Midlands with Poles and Estonians and Romanians!SeanT said:
Totally happy with that. Fuck off Theresa, you silly womanMaxPB said:
Could end up with that, PM Boris with Lib Dem support putting an EEA/EFTA plan through.foxinsoxuk said:
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.isam said:Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
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We'll be stuck with the pension triple lock until it bankrupts us anyway.0
