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  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    It means Brexit kicked into the long grass.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    Ruth Davidson for PM.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830

    I've got to say, I'd feel a bit worse if pb tories hadn't been so unbearably smug up until today.

    Half of them have been bedwetting the entire time!

  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,111
    Who'd be Michael Fallon right now?

    Or indeed at any time...
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
    46% of Labour voters think they would make a good government. Less than half. And they have picked up seats?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,528
    Got to say. Well done JC! I never fell for him, but millions have.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    MikeL said:

    MPs won't go for Leadsom.

    Needs big personality - Boris most likely for me.

    Boris or Rudd from recent exposure, both are better than May now the stank of Brexit is off the former.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Please not Boris Johnson.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    RobD said:

    So next Con leader will also have a lack of mandate? :D

    Election in three months! Keep the triple lock, £50bn for the NHS! No tax rises!
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    isam said:

    GOOD MORNING VENEZUELA!

    In my case goooood morning Canada.....
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    Chameleon said:

    Unfortunately the LD total going up means that Tim won't go.

    The LDs have said he might be in trouble. It would be amusing if the LDs gained seats, but lost Farron.

  • I think Gary Lineker is much worse than Lily Allen
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    I have a horrible feeling the final result will be worse than this for May and the Tories.
  • Ishmael_ZIshmael_Z Posts: 8,981

    jonny83 said:

    Robert Hutton‏Verified account @RobDotHutton 2m2 minutes ago

    Might the exit poll be wrong? Absolutely, and one way in which it might be is postal ballots.

    My thoughts.

    I hope.
    But peak postal ballot coincided with peak dementia tax.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    DavidL said:

    46% of Labour voters think they would make a good government. Less than half. And they have picked up seats?

    Many many seats.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682

    HYUFD said:

    Chris said:

    If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?

    Soft Brexit now. And May will be gone as soon as politically possible.
    Quite possibly right on both, possibly PM Hammond with LD support he would have a majority but would inevitably be a UKIP surge too and that could put Corbyn in No 10 next time. Politically may be more sensible for the Tories to go into opposition if this exit poll is right, put Boris in as opposition leader on a hard Brexit platform and let Corbyn deal with the EU and agree concessions on immigration, 100 billion euros etc
    You've got to be joking if you think that would be a winner. Brexit is dead in the water.
    On what grounds? 17 million voted for Brexit and even if some did switch to Corbyn tonight they were certainly not doing it to stop Brexit but to reduce inequality, tax the rich more, reverse austerity etc. If a coalition did actually completely reverse Brexit UKIP could even do an SNP 2015 next time. Brexit has to happen, even if it is now only soft Brexit
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    If it's wrong then it's probably only going to be wrong in the sense that they only just have a majority, probably less than with they started with before the election.

    That's not good.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    "Ginger, get the popcorn!"
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,993
    Let's not forget that the exit polls in the US were anti-Trump? The reason? People lied to the pollsters.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    MikeL said:

    MPs won't go for Leadsom.

    Needs big personality - Boris most likely for me.

    FFS not Boris....
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 82,546
    AndyJS said:

    BBC: senior Labour figure doesn't think the figures are believable.

    Perhaps they think they have done even better...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Hendon goes Labour. Really?
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    rcs1000 said:

    Chameleon said:

    Unfortunately the LD total going up means that Tim won't go.

    The LDs have said he might be in trouble. It would be amusing if the LDs gained seats, but lost Farron.

    Amusing, or good for the future of the country? I'll go with both.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    Remain in the single market and customs union
    Yup, EEA / EFTA - Norway model and we keep free movement.
  • AndyJS said:

    BBC: senior Labour figure doesn't think the figures are believable.

    Curious, reminds me of the first couple of hours of denial, from both parties, exactly, the last time we were doing all this .
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Finchley and Golders Green!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    Worcester!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Enfield Southgate? I doubt that very much.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Broxtowe = Lab gain with exit poll.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Exit: Con HOLD Twickenham.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,142

    Let's not forget that the exit polls in the US were anti-Trump? The reason? People lied to the pollsters.

    I think the exit poll is also done by a secret ballot.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    edited June 2017
    midwinter said:

    JonathanD said:

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    It went insane last June. Tory Brexiteers indulged themselves ahead of the country and are now paying the price.
    Less than a year after winning a majority. Tossers never learn.
    Quite, they screwed over the party in the 90s and caused 13 years of Labour, now they've done the same again.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,005
    kle4 said:

    It was peculiar - so many of us were so certain that meant no early election would happen. The Tories didn't seem prepared, it really seems like they saw the big poll leads and just went for it. The fools.

    There's nothing wrong with making use of an opportunity, providing you have done the preparation. That was the mistake, not calling an election.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    Scott_P said:

    @holyroodmandy: Quick by-election & @RuthDavidsonMSP becomes an MSP, an MP and PM while @IainMcGill is an MP, MSP & MEP #exitpoll #GE17

    Davidson would murder Corbyn, and she has little baggage as she hasn't been in Westminster.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    So, Messina and Crosby, eh? They just heard what they wanted to hear and focused on no hoper seats.

    Commiserations to TP.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,158
    I'm calling bullshit.

    Finchley? Do me a flavour...
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,927

    I feel quite sanguine, bizarrely.

    Changes the narrative to what sort of Brexit we want. So long as we're looking at no progressive alliance (please god no) maybe everyone can come together and try and step back from the extreme.

    They should dump May though. Proven to be useless.

    Do you expect the SNP to want any sort of Brexit aside from none?
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    Ruth Davidson for PM.

    Yep,only one who i can see of saving the Tories,she needs a seat.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,838
    Haha, Southam, warwick!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    tlg86 said:

    Hendon goes Labour. Really?

    Can you see where the exit poll maps out to ?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Exit:

    No Con losses to LD.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Thanet South still showing Blue.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    So we think Skinner is safe in Bolsover?

    *hollow laugh*
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Chipping Barnet?!? Hmm, I wonder which seats they polled in London.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,274
    Okay, now I am a bit sceptical. Does this mean the SNP have lost to the Tories and Lib Dems?
  • ReprobatusReprobatus Posts: 27
    Labour predicted to take Broxtowe!
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Be kinda funny if the Tories end up on exactly 331 again.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    MikeL said:

    Exit: Con HOLD Twickenham.

    Where is the exit poll data
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019
    All hail the socialists people republic of the disunited kingdom
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Labour won't win High Peak or Thurrock surely
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Finchley and Golders Green to go Labour.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 43,927

    She should never have called it. It was not needed.

    Some of us have been saying that for weeks.
    I said it the day it was called.

    Also predicted a couple of weeks ago the same-sized majority in 2017 as in 2015. Could still be on for that.
    In which case you are truly a wise sage, sir!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Labour forecast to gain Chipping Barnet.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 53,257
    Have to say some of these projected Labour gains look VERY unlikely.....
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    tlg86 said:

    Okay, now I am a bit sceptical. Does this mean the SNP have lost to the Tories and Lib Dems?

    yes
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    I put some money on Amber Rudd for next Tory leader and she might not even be an MP. It'd be ironic if she was saved by the few people who voted for Nicholas Wilson.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,215
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 52,854

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    Remain in the single market and customs union
    Yup, EEA / EFTA - Norway model and we keep free movement.
    To get from here to there would be an utterly pointless diminution of the UK.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Exit:

    Con GAIN all 4 Lab seats in NE Wales
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @simon_telegraph: Scottish Tory sources are urging caution over the exit poll - say they cannot see where the SNP loses 22 seats #GE2017
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    BBC says Labour would gain Warwick and Leamington, Enfield Southgate etc looks like Tory Remain marginals going Labour. Tories gain Wrexham, Clwyd South, Delyn, Tories doing better in Wales and Scotland than England
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 61,249
    If May falls on her sword tomorrow, and Hammond takes over, at least I'll make a grand.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,528

    I think Gary Lineker is much worse than Lily Allen

    Not if you're playing one up front.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    So Theresa cocks up and simultaneously saves the Union?
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,783
    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    EEA/EFTA.
    Plus leaving free movement unchecked + 100 billion euros to EU to stay in single market, Hammond could do it with LD backing but Farage would not believe his luck and would swiftly take back the leadership from Nuttall
    Con+SNP would give a more workable majority than Con+LD.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    DavidL said:

    46% of Labour voters think they would make a good government. Less than half. And they have picked up seats?

    Plenty of people - myself included - voted Brexit even though they knew it would damage the economy.

    Maybe people have thought 'these guys aren't great but the status quo is cnutish - roll the dice'?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635
    MaxPB said:

    Enfield Southgate? I doubt that very much.

    I don't
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    jonny83 said:

    Robert Hutton‏Verified account @RobDotHutton 2m2 minutes ago

    Might the exit poll be wrong? Absolutely, and one way in which it might be is postal ballots.

    My thoughts.

    I hope.
    Do you really think John Curtice's team didn't take account of postal votes in their projection)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,786
    I'm not sure about these target changes on the BBC.... but they could be right....
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    TOPPING said:

    atia2 said:

    Delurking to ask how the PB Tories imagined that a campaign this vacuous and this inept would have no electoral consequences? If that were true, we might as well do away with election campaigns altogether.

    I think it was Tory Remainers in the Remain cities that will have been a big factor. People could live with a new policy on social care.
    Yes, she made absolutely no attempt to reach out to remainers. Looks like it might have cost her her job - and rightly so.
  • ReprobatusReprobatus Posts: 27
    Artist said:

    Labour won't win High Peak or Thurrock surely

    I really cannot see Labour winning High Peak.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766

    Haha, Southam, warwick!

    I did share that email I got last night from the candidate which talked about being on the verge of a sensational result. Still don't believe it, though.

  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    So we have won Newport E and lost Reading W

    LOL
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,270
    kle4 said:

    So, Messina and Crosby, eh? They just heard what they wanted to hear and focused on no hoper seats.

    Commiserations to TP.

    From what I've read Crosby didn't want that social care policy in the manifesto. I bet you that is what has caused this.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Can't believe this: Tories gaining Clwyd South, Alyn&Deeside, Delyn at the same time as losing Chipping Barnet and Reading West.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    BBC forecast Tories gain Moray
  • RobinWiggsRobinWiggs Posts: 621
    Exit - Alyn & Deeside, Wrexham and Clwyd South gains by Con. Chester held by Lab.

    Wow - some amazing results.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    Broxtowe going Labour they say
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,736
    Well I'm glad I took out my insurance.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,830
    Tiny Labour majority not switching Blue.

    England has let the Tories down.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    Chris said:

    HYUFD said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    EEA/EFTA.
    Plus leaving free movement unchecked + 100 billion euros to EU to stay in single market, Hammond could do it with LD backing but Farage would not believe his luck and would swiftly take back the leadership from Nuttall
    Con+SNP would give a more workable majority than Con+LD.
    The Tories would rather do a deal with Labour than the SNP, I certainly would
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,635

    Have to say some of these projected Labour gains look VERY unlikely.....

    Where is the projection
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,893
    MikeL said:

    Exit:

    No Con losses to LD.

    Wow. So that means the LDs must be predicted to get almost all their Scottish seats back. Extraordinary.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,766
    Tories will win a majority. But this is shocking for May.
  • ab195ab195 Posts: 477
    edited June 2017
    The only hope for the Tories has to be that people have voted in such a different way to last time that the exit poll can't detect it. Slim though.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 20,062
    dixiedean said:

    I think Gary Lineker is much worse than Lily Allen

    Not if you're playing one up front.
    LOL
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    I think that the exit poll is incorrect.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,317
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Enfield Southgate? I doubt that very much.

    I don't
    The only reason I say that is because the Labour council pushed a lot of locally unpopular policies, even though David Burrowes is a dick head, he should win.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,993
    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    It means Brexit kicked into the long grass.
    That's crazy. We had a referendum won by Leave. We have a general election in which both major parties are committed to respecting the referendum result. And then having got the vast majority of seats they conspire to stop it????

    Remainers (of which I was one) never seem to think things through.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Finchley & Golders Green is not going Lab, this exit poll is partially bollocks. Reading West also seems very unlikely.
  • Y0kelY0kel Posts: 2,307
    I got a text from a guy, he is former Ulster Unionist councillor and party wonk.

    'Do you know what kind of biscuits Theresa May likes?'
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Roger said:

    Broxtowe going Labour they say

    I got that at 14/1 !

    Kippers not backing Soubry.

  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    edited June 2017
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,219

    Tories will win a majority. But this is shocking for May.

    ... and triumphant for Corbyn ...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 124,682
    jonny83 said:

    kle4 said:

    So, Messina and Crosby, eh? They just heard what they wanted to hear and focused on no hoper seats.

    Commiserations to TP.

    From what I've read Crosby didn't want that social care policy in the manifesto. I bet you that is what has caused this.
    Messina did indeed say there would be a lot of undecideds
This discussion has been closed.