It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted. Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.
But if the 2015 exit poll understated the Tory seats wouldn't basing the comparison of it understand Tories today?
That would only mean the Tories were further away from a majority, though.
Well that depends - I didn't spot if any SLAB gains (had to be though, right) and those ones could be wrong. But I think you're right. Could be sub 300.
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted. Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted. Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.
BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.
Does this make sense???
What worries me is that the Exit Poll will be wrong, but not in a way that's good for the Tories.
BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.
Does this make sense???
No. Exit poll is fucked. Which direction however is not so clear.
If you don't which direction it's fucked in, why are you so sure it's fucked at all?
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted. Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.
What's weird is that in Wales the Tories are making the kind of gains we expected against Labour in working class seats but they aren't in England. Are people that different?
The population of Wales is significantly older than many parts of England, and I think with a lower level of graduates outside Cardiff.
BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.
Does this make sense???
No. Exit poll is fucked. Which direction however is not so clear.
If you don't which direction it's fucked in, why are you so sure it's fucked at all?
Because the predicted gains are pretty odd, with identical places a few km either side of a border flipping opposite ways.
The regional sub samples of the exit poll feel off, I could imagine Mike Katz getting Hendon but Labour gain Finchley feels beyond possibility. At the same time the Tories sweeping through North East Wales,I don't see it.
Wouldn't miss Gobby Soubry in Broxtowe, but am sceptical that we have done that much better in Wales and Scotland if the result is so poor in the English marginals.
It would be interesting if English Labour have done better than in Wales and Scotland considering both Jones and Dugdale have been at pains to distance themselves from Corbyn.
I have a horrible feeling the final result will be worse than this for May and the Tories.
We can live in hope. I'll be several thousand quid poorer tomorrow but it'll be worth it.
I'll be £100s poorer (net) on my bets if it's really NOM. But my business will do better under a non-Tory govt. Staying fully or half in the EU (Norway-style) is a plus.
The exit poll does seem problematic - it whiffs a little, but is also plausible.
Having looked at it more, it looks like tactical voting against the SNP, plus a youth turnout, plus overcompensation by many opinion pollsters, could explain this result.
But if the 2015 exit poll understated the Tory seats wouldn't basing the comparison of it understand Tories today?
I think if people were voting the same way as last time you would theoretically expect a very similar degree of error. Of course a lot has happened since then, Brexit and of course Corbyn and May
Reuters reporting May saying she will go if she does not get 320, so could be PM Hammond by weekend on that basis
LOL I think the Tories will want her out even in that scenario.
We will see but she could get a majority with DUP if on 320+. If she is below that she would need LD support and only Hammond could get that on a soft Brexit platform. Otherwise Tories go into opposition with Boris leader on a full Brexit platform, Corbyn becomes PM in pact with SNP, PC, SF , SDLP, Greens etc and he does soft Brexit,
Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.
Think of this for a moment; In order to get that we need to hand over fishing rights say, the SNP say "no" as they want control back with them in Holyrood and know that if they hand them back to the EU there would be uproar at the next election. Where do we go from there?
With FPTP you need strength and strength alone, you cannot govern in coalitions in the long term. This is why I support a change to AV or PR to try and change our politics.
Norway and Iceland are not members of the CFP and have full control of their waters.
But would we get the same though, that is my point. We are not them, our waters have been EU controlled for a long time would they be willing to piss of their own fishing industries to help us. The myriad of hurdles ahead makes my head hurt. Fuck it, I'm off to bed.
Apologies - has anyone answered the question about how the Exit poll samples postal voters?
They don't take account of postals.
Well that could make a massive difference couldn't it? How many youngsters use postal votes? Won't that exaggerate the presumed assumption that postal votes reflect the wider electorate?
Wow, we might go Labour here in Milton Keynes South according to the exit poll. Majority of nearly 9000 and 8000 UKIP supporters. Would be amazing.
What I'm worried about is that the Tories have been targeting the wrong seats.
Of course they have. They've spent years building a coalition of roughly centrist voters. May went on a walking holiday in Wales and decided to throw the whole thing up in the air and target a whole bunch of different voters with only 6 weeks notice.
Reuters reporting May saying she will go if she does not get 320, so could be PM Hammond by weekend on that basis
LOL I think the Tories will want her out even in that scenario.
We will see but she could get a majority with DUP if on 320+. If she is below that she would need LD support and only Hammond could get that on a soft Brexit platform
Go for that platform and half the parliamentary party doesn't go with him.
I don't see a majority government losing its majority and then struggling on in minority status. is there comparable precedent anywhere?
Scotland?
Ah, yes, ok good point! Still, it was not quite the same fall from grace as the tories now (although the SNP now is also suffering a huge fall from grace if this is right)
The exit poll does seem problematic - it whiffs a little, but is also plausible.
Having looked at it more, it looks like tactical voting against the SNP, plus a youth turnout, plus overcompensation by many opinion pollsters, could explain this result.
So my wittering on about Lusser's Law might be correct!
But if the 2015 exit poll understated the Tory seats wouldn't basing the comparison of it understand Tories today?
I think if people were voting the same way as last time you would theoretically expect a very similar degree of error. Of course a lot has happened since then, Brexit and of course Corbyn and May
The exit pollsters will have noted the slight errors last time and adjusted slightly for them .
Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.
Could end up with that, PM Boris with Lib Dem support putting an EEA/EFTA plan through.
Totally happy with that. Fuck off Theresa, you silly woman
UKIP would surge if that was the result but I would also accept that having voted Remain last year. May to be fair to her voted Remain but decided to give the Brexit voting North and Midlands the immigration controls they voted for, if they have not voted for that and to give May the mandate she needed for hard Brexit as a Tory I am now tempted to say sod the North and Midlands, let's have as soft a Brexit as possible and flood the North and Midlands with Poles and Estonians and Romanians!
Comments
I've nibbled.
Lab 68
Con 23
UKIP 6
LD 2
GRN 1
Labour need a 6.7% swing
Extraordinary.
But the tories deserve to do shit. their campaign was shit, their leader was shit.
And now we're all in the shit
- Con landslide
-Labour largest party
Thinks that Con leader will be PM
Thinks we can't rule out Con majority
As I pointed out earlier today...
Swings and roundabouts.
aka: betting as insurance.
Increased Labour majorities? Or is it too MoE to make any determinations?
Fuck it, I'm off to bed.
Lab 68
Con 23
UKIP 6
LD 2
GRN 1
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2017/05/31/what-if-this-latest-from-yougov-proves-to-be-correct/
Labour may only have SNP/Green/PC to rely on.
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/politics/market/1.131081434
Now they'll have over 20 won;t they?
Amazing
I'm sorry.
Yours sincerely, Miss A
Ignore the result from the two Tyne/Wear seats.
"New: Labour sources say they are confident of holding all three Rotherham seats."
well, thanks!
Liberals will go in with Labour with single market as a price. That's my current thinking.
I based this on the Cornwall live poll that showed nearly all Cornish seats TCTC.
Whoever is PM on Monday is in deep shit