Thinking of the reports I read from Labour leaning publications / web sites they either were playing a great game expectation management wise or this is an utter utter shock - or plain wrong
Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.
Think of this for a moment; In order to get that we need to hand over fishing rights say, the SNP say "no" as they want control back with them in Holyrood and know that if they hand them back to the EU there would be uproar at the next election. Where do we go from there?
With FPTP you need strength and strength alone, you cannot govern in coalitions in the long term. This is why I support a change to AV or PR to try and change our politics.
Thinking of the reports I read from Labour leaning publications / web sites they either were playing a great game expectation management wise or this is an utter utter shock - or plain wrong
They were all hoping for disaster and David Miliband to come back.
General Election 2015: Shipley[6][7] Party Candidate Votes % ± Conservative Philip Davies 25,269 50.0 +1.4 Labour Steve Clapcote 15,645 31.0 +2.5 UKIP Waqas Khan 4,479 8.9 N/A Green Kevin Warnes 2,657 5.3 +2.3 Liberal Democrat Andrew Martin 1,949 3.9 -16.2 Yorkshire First Darren Hill 543 1.1 N/A Majority 9,624 19.0
The EEA won't work for us, unfortunately. We're not Norway, which is prepared to outsource its foreign relations to an outside body without any input into them. It doesn't really work for Norway either - it's a compromise that dissatisfies the pro and anti-EU factions equally. In any case, it's not certain the EU (or Norway for that matter) will offer us it.
This is just ridiculously surreal. Three successive shock electoral results. Surely the Tories must out-perform this exit poll.
Bizarre and fascinating on so may levels - and we don't even know which way it's going to go. With all and any scenario, though, the election- polling industry seems to be stuck in a kind of permanent crisis.
Some of those Labour gains just look weird. No suggestion that Labour thought they were in with a chance in many of the gains that rob the Tories of their majority.....
John Curtice knows his stuff.
This will be correct. We are relying on Crosby to swing it in a handful of extra seats for the Tories.
Still think a Tory majority is likely, but less than 50 now. Would be surprised if it was a hung parliament. Brexit is likely to die a death in a hung parliament, as there will not be a team with a mandate to negotiate exit terms.
Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.
Think of this for a moment; In order to get that we need to hand over fishing rights say, the SNP say "no" as they want control back with them in Holyrood and know that if they hand them back to the EU there would be uproar at the next election. Where do we go from there?
With FPTP you need strength and strength alone, you cannot govern in coalitions in the long term. This is why I support a change to AV or PR to try and change our politics.
Norway and Iceland are not members of the CFP and have full control of their waters.
This is just ridiculously surreal. Three successive shock electoral results. Surely the Tories must out-perform this exit poll.
Bizarre and fascinating on so may levels - and we don't even know which way it's going to go. With all and any scenario, though, the election- polling industry seems to be stuck in a kind of permanent crisis.
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted. Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.
Thinking of the reports I read from Labour leaning publications / web sites they either were playing a great game expectation management wise or this is an utter utter shock - or plain wrong
Yes, this is the thing about this - most Labour people would not have predicted this. But if everyone missed it this much, it could get even worse for Con. No reason to assume it is wrong in their favour - A few SCON gains don't come through, one or two others, and Con below 300?
Anecdotal talk of people voting Tory for first time clearly bunkum (Myself excluded).
The EEA won't work for us, unfortunately. We're not Norway, which is prepared to outsource its foreign relations to an outside body without any input into them. It doesn't really work for Norway either - it's a compromise that dissatisfies the pro and anti-EU factions equally. In any case, it's not certain the EU (or Norway for that matter) will offer us it.
Doesn't work for Norway? Something like 80% of Norwegians are happy with the current arrangement.
What's weird is that in Wales the Tories are making the kind of gains we expected against Labour in working class seats but they aren't in England. Are people that different?
All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?
It means Brexit kicked into the long grass.
That's crazy. We had a referendum won by Leave. We have a general election in which both major parties are committed to respecting the referendum result. And then having got the vast majority of seats they conspire to stop it????
Remainers (of which I was one) never seem to think things through.
There are ways of respecting it without doing much. As the economy starts to collapse no one will notice.
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.
The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted. Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.
Sounds like the nuneatons of the world regretted their 2015 decisions.
All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?
Remain in the single market and customs union
Yup, EEA / EFTA - Norway model and we keep free movement.
To get from here to there would be an utterly pointless diminution of the UK.
Leave was pointless from the start.
Leave could have had a point if there was a clear and united plan from its backers but they chose to be all things to all people and worry about how it was going to work out later.
BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.
BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.
Does this make sense???
No. Exit poll is fucked. Which direction however is not so clear.
Comments
However SNP sub 30 not impossible - more seats for Labour there
Mhairi is gone - Ave it posted this on here a few days
With FPTP you need strength and strength alone, you cannot govern in coalitions in the long term. This is why I support a change to AV or PR to try and change our politics.
Go on Tories, you know it makes sense.
Conservative Philip Davies 25,269 50.0 +1.4
Labour Steve Clapcote 15,645 31.0 +2.5
UKIP Waqas Khan 4,479 8.9 N/A
Green Kevin Warnes 2,657 5.3 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Andrew Martin 1,949 3.9 -16.2
Yorkshire First Darren Hill 543 1.1 N/A
Majority 9,624 19.0
29% Lab Gain ??
This will be correct. We are relying on Crosby to swing it in a handful of extra seats for the Tories.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373
I didn't believe her. I submit to the lib dem canvassing queen in we London.
*buffs nails*
Anecdotal talk of people voting Tory for first time clearly bunkum (Myself excluded).
If so, all Con campaigning in wrong place.
Should read, before lunchtime
Does this make sense???
EDIT: ah, says exit poll has 68 Lab:23 Con
Damn it, I thought they had no chance there.
Come on LDs in Argyll & Bute. It's my only big constituency bet
(Other than everything the bookies would take on Orkney & Sutherland.)
Waiting for the first seats.
The exit poll's horrendous.