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  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,517

    DavidL said:

    No wonder Phil Hammond kept quiet during this campaign, he saw this disaster coming.

    He may well be PM in a week.
    Blimey, even more boring that Tezza. It's got to be Gove or Boris.
    No chance. They got us into this mess.
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Thinking of the reports I read from Labour leaning publications / web sites they either were playing a great game expectation management wise or this is an utter utter shock - or plain wrong
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766

    Next Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson forecast to win

    The LDs - especially if they lose Farron - have been ridiculous, incredibly lucky.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,005
    Is it all about the dementia tax? This geographical picture makes no sense otherwise!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Well, I was right to be bullish about LD prospects.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411

    OK after the Exit Poll

    I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)

    Agree BigJohn

    However SNP sub 30 not impossible - more seats for Labour there

    Mhairi is gone - Ave it posted this on here a few days
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037
    Freggles said:

    James Wharton in Stockton South could be in trouble according to Exit Poll.

    Good riddance!! He is one nasty slimy Tory tw&t. I'll raise a glass if and when that happens.
  • GarzaGarza Posts: 45
    With the change of dynamics of British politics (Scotland, Wales, Brexit, UKIP) maybe this exit poll is destined to be way off?
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    isam said:

    Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU

    A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.

    Think of this for a moment; In order to get that we need to hand over fishing rights say, the SNP say "no" as they want control back with them in Holyrood and know that if they hand them back to the EU there would be uproar at the next election. Where do we go from there?

    With FPTP you need strength and strength alone, you cannot govern in coalitions in the long term. This is why I support a change to AV or PR to try and change our politics.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    Sunderland south - turnout 61%.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392

    Jonathan said:
    Only one Tory gain in England: Clacton.
    Christ! Revenge of the English.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944


    It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.

    :neutral:

    I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979

    Artist said:

    Labour won't win High Peak or Thurrock surely

    I really cannot see Labour winning High Peak.
    I'm on Labour winning High Peak at 10/1
  • jonny83 said:

    kle4 said:

    So, Messina and Crosby, eh? They just heard what they wanted to hear and focused on no hoper seats.

    Commiserations to TP.

    From what I've read Crosby didn't want that social care policy in the manifesto. I bet you that is what has caused this.
    MPs said that. I was out with one the day after tezza announced it. He said...fuck, fuck, fuck, fuck
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,392
    RobD said:

    Yeah, a leadership election right now would be sub-optimal, lol.

    What's GO up to? :p
    #Priti4Leader

    Go on Tories, you know it makes sense.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,550
    Freggles said:
    It didn't say anything about losing 17...
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007
    jonny83 said:

    Tories will win a majority. But this is shocking for May.

    Nah, it'll be worse than this.

    PM Corbyn with a coalition of chaos.
    Think it's a real possibility? Some rainbow coalition/coalition of chaos?
    Yes.
  • chloechloe Posts: 308

    Labour candidate for Finchley is head of Jewish Labour Movement.

    Still can't believe they will take it though. Freer was quite a popular MP.
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434
    Floater said:

    Thinking of the reports I read from Labour leaning publications / web sites they either were playing a great game expectation management wise or this is an utter utter shock - or plain wrong

    They were all hoping for disaster and David Miliband to come back.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,838
    General Election 2015: Shipley[6][7] Party Candidate Votes % ±
    Conservative Philip Davies 25,269 50.0 +1.4
    Labour Steve Clapcote 15,645 31.0 +2.5
    UKIP Waqas Khan 4,479 8.9 N/A
    Green Kevin Warnes 2,657 5.3 +2.3
    Liberal Democrat Andrew Martin 1,949 3.9 -16.2
    Yorkshire First Darren Hill 543 1.1 N/A
    Majority 9,624 19.0

    29% Lab Gain ??
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    murali_s said:

    Freggles said:

    James Wharton in Stockton South could be in trouble according to Exit Poll.

    Good riddance!! He is one nasty slimy Tory tw&t. I'll raise a glass if and when that happens.
    What did he do?
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    AndyJS said:

    Well, I was right to be bullish about LD prospects.

    You and me both :smile:
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    Tories will win a majority. But this is shocking for May.

    Nah, it'll be worse than this.

    PM Corbyn with a coalition of chaos.
    If the exit poll is overly pessimistic on the SNP it's very possible. If Con go below 300 they can't govern.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,819

    OK after the Exit Poll

    I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)

    WHAT? The exit poll can't be that wrong.
    Well, it was basically that wrong in 2015. 316 prediction, 331 reality. So not impossible to see 314 end up as 335 for example.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Ave_it said:



    Mhairi is gone - Ave it posted this on here a few days

    One positive to come out of the night then...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mhairi Black would lose her seat with this exit poll.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,542
    The EEA won't work for us, unfortunately. We're not Norway, which is prepared to outsource its foreign relations to an outside body without any input into them. It doesn't really work for Norway either - it's a compromise that dissatisfies the pro and anti-EU factions equally. In any case, it's not certain the EU (or Norway for that matter) will offer us it.
  • Freggles said:

    This is just ridiculously surreal. Three successive shock electoral results. Surely the Tories must out-perform this exit poll.

    Bizarre and fascinating on so may levels - and we don't even know which way it's going to go. With all and any scenario, though, the election- polling industry seems to be stuck in a kind of permanent crisis.
  • sarissasarissa Posts: 1,748
    HYUFD said:

    BBC forecast Tories gain Moray

    Really Ironic if that is due to the fishing vote - CFP or something like it likely to be confirmed if Brexit will now be the soft(est) version
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 55,007

    OK after the Exit Poll

    I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)

    Some of those Labour gains just look weird. No suggestion that Labour thought they were in with a chance in many of the gains that rob the Tories of their majority.....
    John Curtice knows his stuff.

    This will be correct. We are relying on Crosby to swing it in a handful of extra seats for the Tories.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,136
    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    Same as being in the EU except you're excused from needing to show up at the meetings where they make decisions.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Ave_it said:

    OK after the Exit Poll

    I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)

    Agree BigJohn

    However SNP sub 30 not impossible - more seats for Labour there

    Mhairi is gone - Ave it posted this on here a few days
    I agree with all conclusions, I'm going to wait until the first Sunderland seats come in first.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    edited June 2017
    Richard_H said:

    Still think a Tory majority is likely, but less than 50 now. Would be surprised if it was a hung parliament. Brexit is likely to die a death in a hung parliament, as there will not be a team with a mandate to negotiate exit terms.

    Then Nigel and UKIP come back into the reckoning.
  • Happily the silver lining is that my long wait in Omagh will now be less boring
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    HaroldO said:

    isam said:

    Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU

    A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.

    Think of this for a moment; In order to get that we need to hand over fishing rights say, the SNP say "no" as they want control back with them in Holyrood and know that if they hand them back to the EU there would be uproar at the next election. Where do we go from there?

    With FPTP you need strength and strength alone, you cannot govern in coalitions in the long term. This is why I support a change to AV or PR to try and change our politics.
    Norway and Iceland are not members of the CFP and have full control of their waters.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    RobD said:

    Yeah, a leadership election right now would be sub-optimal, lol.

    What's GO up to? :p
    #Priti4Leader

    Go on Tories, you know it makes sense.
    Hard Right of the Tories running government is a nightmare scenario, no.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    ITEPIR and the LDs hold the "no coalition" deal, it's a Tory minority government.
  • jonny83jonny83 Posts: 1,261
    I bet nobody is going to bed anytime soon lol
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    isam said:

    Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU

    A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.

    Could end up with that, PM Boris with Lib Dem support putting an EEA/EFTA plan through.
  • Freggles said:

    This is just ridiculously surreal. Three successive shock electoral results. Surely the Tories must out-perform this exit poll.

    Bizarre and fascinating on so may levels - and we don't even know which way it's going to go. With all and any scenario, though, the election- polling industry seems to be stuck in a kind of permanent crisis.
    So *many* levels, not May's ones !
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    "Projected: Wrexham 99% chance of a Conservative victory"

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373
  • Scott_P said:

    @simon_telegraph: Scottish Tory sources are urging caution over the exit poll - say they cannot see where the SNP loses 22 seats #GE2017

    totally agree. They have stoking majorities
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535


    It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.

    :neutral:

    I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.
    The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted.
    Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    RobD said:

    Yeah, a leadership election right now would be sub-optimal, lol.

    What's GO up to? :p
    #Priti4Leader

    Go on Tories, you know it makes sense.
    Yes please!
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    May has to go if the result is anything like this.
  • TravelJunkieTravelJunkie Posts: 431
    My lib democrat friend in we London told me that lib Dems were doing well and labour would gain seats.

    I didn't believe her. I submit to the lib dem canvassing queen in we London.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670

    No wonder Phil Hammond kept quiet during this campaign, he saw this disaster coming.

    The Theresa May Strategy
    Maybe Tory MPs will get suspicious of silent triangulating invisible MPs during significant political events.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 50,753
    According to the BBC the Lib Dems are going to take Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross and Ross Skye & Lochaber. Oh yea of so little faith.

    *buffs nails*
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Well, I was right to be bullish about LD prospects.

    You and me both :smile:
    A pity I only bet very small amounts on them, concentrating on Con/Lab instead. Darn.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,786

    DavidL said:

    No wonder Phil Hammond kept quiet during this campaign, he saw this disaster coming.

    He may well be PM in a week.
    Blimey, even more boring that Tezza. It's got to be Gove or Boris.
    No chance. They got us into this mess.
    All it would take is for a high profile Leaver to recant and then Brexit would unravel definitively.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    Floater said:

    Thinking of the reports I read from Labour leaning publications / web sites they either were playing a great game expectation management wise or this is an utter utter shock - or plain wrong

    Yes, this is the thing about this - most Labour people would not have predicted this. But if everyone missed it this much, it could get even worse for Con. No reason to assume it is wrong in their favour - A few SCON gains don't come through, one or two others, and Con below 300?

    Anecdotal talk of people voting Tory for first time clearly bunkum (Myself excluded).
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    Not sure but don't think Exit has any Con gains in England.

    If so, all Con campaigning in wrong place.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @KayBurley: Ladbrokes 5/4 on that May replaced as Tory leader before Christmas

    Should read, before lunchtime
  • ProdicusProdicus Posts: 658

    Jonathan said:
    Only one Tory gain in England: Clacton.
    Yeah, right.



  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    FF43 said:

    The EEA won't work for us, unfortunately. We're not Norway, which is prepared to outsource its foreign relations to an outside body without any input into them. It doesn't really work for Norway either - it's a compromise that dissatisfies the pro and anti-EU factions equally. In any case, it's not certain the EU (or Norway for that matter) will offer us it.

    Doesn't work for Norway? Something like 80% of Norwegians are happy with the current arrangement.
  • ITEPIR and the LDs hold the "no coalition" deal, it's a Tory minority government.

    No chance of LD support , post-Brexit, I think.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952
    David Davis might get the top job after all.... Been a safe pair of hands so far. Would command confidence to deliver Brexit, I would say.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    Same as being in the EU except you're excused from needing to show up at the meetings where they make decisions.
    Well, that's better than having to turn up for them to all gang up against you...
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    HaroldO said:
    No one at the moment.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    The Exit poll seat forecasts on the BBC seem bizarre. Certain gains are all 90%+ chance, and then almost none in the 70%-90% region?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    What's weird is that in Wales the Tories are making the kind of gains we expected against Labour in working class seats but they aren't in England. Are people that different?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,706
    Reuters reporting May saying she will go if she does not get 320, so could be PM Hammond by weekend on that basis
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891
    edited June 2017

    Roger said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    It means Brexit kicked into the long grass.
    That's crazy. We had a referendum won by Leave. We have a general election in which both major parties are committed to respecting the referendum result. And then having got the vast majority of seats they conspire to stop it????

    Remainers (of which I was one) never seem to think things through.
    There are ways of respecting it without doing much. As the economy starts to collapse no one will notice.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    glw said:


    It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.

    :neutral:

    I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.
    The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted.
    Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.
    Sounds like the nuneatons of the world regretted their 2015 decisions.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Sandpit said:

    Sunderland south - turnout 61%.

    That's very high for there isn't it?
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    FF43 said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    Remain in the single market and customs union
    Yup, EEA / EFTA - Norway model and we keep free movement.
    To get from here to there would be an utterly pointless diminution of the UK.
    Leave was pointless from the start.
    Leave could have had a point if there was a clear and united plan from its backers but they chose to be all things to all people and worry about how it was going to work out later.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921

    David Davis might get the top job after all.... Been a safe pair of hands so far. Would command confidence to deliver Brexit, I would say.

    Good shout.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    Theresa May going down extremely well in Wales and Scotland, extremely badly in London and graduate seats like Warwick, Reading West.

    The University is in Reading East though.
    I know, but Reading in general has a very high level of graduates.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,164
    calum said:
    Any different to last time? Forecast was for 58 seats in 2015 was it not?
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230

    OK after the Exit Poll

    I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)

    WHAT? The exit poll can't be that wrong.
    Yes it can.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    MaxPB said:

    isam said:

    Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU

    A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.

    Could end up with that, PM Boris with Lib Dem support putting an EEA/EFTA plan through.
    Five years EFTA/EEA followed by a referendum on the status post that? Wouldn't be a dumb decision.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    Do we know what the Houghton and Sunderland prediction is from the exit poll?
  • BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.

    Does this make sense???
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950
    DavidL said:

    No wonder Phil Hammond kept quiet during this campaign, he saw this disaster coming.

    He may well be PM in a week.
    I will not repeat my observation about Hammond. Yet.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Nearly at H&SS's 2015 declaration time...
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    The big silver lining of 2 elections is that it gives Unionists more time to find out how to tactical vote.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    Looks like I have to take it all back about the posh boys.....
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    As much as I love politics.... if we have another election this year it's going to be utterly febrile
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,392
    viewcode said:

    OK after the Exit Poll

    I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)

    WHAT? The exit poll can't be that wrong.
    Yes it can.
    But why would it be?
  • RhubarbRhubarb Posts: 359

    Jonathan said:
    Only one Tory gain in England: Clacton.
    "There are 76 seats that our predictions show as being too close to call."
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434
    This is another EU ref surely. My phone's about to die and when it revives Con majority will be obvious... cos this is too good to be true
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    tlg86 said:

    calum said:
    Any different to last time? Forecast was for 58 seats in 2015 was it not?
    Hard to get the SNP surge that wrong though.
  • OliverOliver Posts: 33
    Thought Curtice would have been on the BBC by now. I want to see how confident he is in the poll.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    HYUFD said:

    Reuters reporting May saying she will go if she does not get 320, so could be PM Hammond by weekend on that basis

    LOL I think the Tories will want her out even in that scenario.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886

    BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.

    Does this make sense???

    No. Exit poll is fucked. Which direction however is not so clear.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 113,956
    Mortimer said:

    Looks like I have to take it all back about the posh boys.....

    Told you.
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,008
    calum said:
    That would only mean the Tories were further away from a majority, though.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,952
    edited June 2017
    We need to see what the exit poll says the Sunderland result SHOULD be, so we can compare it...

    EDIT: ah, says exit poll has 68 Lab:23 Con
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Jonathan said:
    Only one Tory gain in England: Clacton.
    Lab retake Copeland?

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    HYUFD said:

    Reuters reporting May saying she will go if she does not get 320, so could be PM Hammond by weekend on that basis

    320 would still be 11 fewer than last time!
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,230
    edited June 2017

    ...a Lab-SNP coalition could be viable...

    OH FUCK. IF THAT HAPPENS WE'RE GREECE WITH NUKES.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone have a guess for what the national shares might be, if the exit poll is correct?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,614
    That would be the best pair of results of the night!
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,766
    edited June 2017
    DavidL said:

    According to the BBC the Lib Dems are going to take Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross and Ross Skye & Lochaber. Oh yea of so little faith.

    *buffs nails*

    RS&L!

    Damn it, I thought they had no chance there.

    Come on LDs in Argyll & Bute. It's my only big constituency bet :smile:

    (Other than everything the bookies would take on Orkney & Sutherland.)
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @Torcuil: Nice line from @MatthewParris3 - this is the revenge of the young for Brexit.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I can't do another GE this year
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 60,933
    Mr. 83, I might.

    Waiting for the first seats.

    The exit poll's horrendous.
This discussion has been closed.