If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?
Soft Brexit now. And May will be gone as soon as politically possible.
Quite possibly right on both, possibly PM Hammond with LD support he would have a majority but would inevitably be a UKIP surge too and that could put Corbyn in No 10 next time. Politically may be more sensible for the Tories to go into opposition if this exit poll is right, put Boris in as opposition leader on a hard Brexit platform and let Corbyn deal with the EU and agree concessions on immigration, 100 billion euros etc
The battleground graphic on the BBC is flooring me, just as I'm sure it's flooring most of you. Dozens of Labour gains! The Tories only picking up seats in Scotland and Wales.
I've just come back from final canvassing in Erdington and there's no way that Labour have done this well north of the Watford Gap. No way that there are no Tory gains in England.
Hmm. I suppose it's not surprising that people are finding the exit poll predictions unbelievable, because they found the predictions of the YouGov model unbelievable, and the YouGov model is quite close to the exit poll.
The question is, how strong is the evidence for unbelievability, compared with the evidence of actually asking people how they have just voted?
The battleground graphic on the BBC is flooring me, just as I'm sure it's flooring most of you. Dozens of Labour gains! The Tories only picking up seats in Scotland and Wales.
I've just come back from final canvassing in Erdington and there's no way that Labour have done this well north of the Watford Gap. No way that there are no Tory gains in England.
Well, it may be I end up almost even if enough of those Scottish Con gains come through (Angus in particular). I got on Broxtowe like Foxinsox, and Bristol West and Cambridge get me some small but decent returns for Labour.
I did put a small amount on a Conservative minority as a covering position, and Tories 330-359, so money wise I think I'm ok, but not rich as most bets will have failed.
Wouldn't miss Gobby Soubry in Broxtowe, but am sceptical that we have done that much better in Wales and Scotland if the result is so poor in the English marginals.
Still think a Tory majority is likely, but less than 50 now. Would be surprised if it was a hung parliament. Brexit is likely to die a death in a hung parliament, as there will not be a team with a mandate to negotiate exit terms.
Some of those Labour gains just look weird. No suggestion that Labour thought they were in with a chance in many of the gains that rob the Tories of their majority.....
The battleground graphic on the BBC is flooring me, just as I'm sure it's flooring most of you. Dozens of Labour gains! The Tories only picking up seats in Scotland and Wales.
I've just come back from final canvassing in Erdington and there's no way that Labour have done this well north of the Watford Gap. No way that there are no Tory gains in England.
The Tories will have a majority.
I'm doubling down on Con 350+. (Still small stakes).
So it looks like Cameron is still the only Tory leader to win a majority since 1992.
Perhaps, though the BBC exit poll last time did not predict he would get a majority. The worst BBC exit poll in recent times was 1987 when BBC forecast a 26 seat Thatcher majority and she got a 102 majority so we need to have actual results to confirm
All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?
EEA/EFTA.
Plus leaving free movement unchecked + 100 billion euros to EU to stay in single market, Hammond could do it with LD backing but Farage would not believe his luck and would swiftly take back the leadership from Nuttall
Con+SNP would give a more workable majority than Con+LD.
The Tories would rather do a deal with Labour than the SNP, I certainly would
Neither the SNP nor the Tories could do a deal given the rhetoric.
Comments
76 too close to call means a Lab-SNP coalition could be viable. Or May might increase her majority.
Con being forecast to lose lots of seats (approx 35?) and gain approx 20.
I've just come back from final canvassing in Erdington and there's no way that Labour have done this well north of the Watford Gap. No way that there are no Tory gains in England.
The Tories will have a majority.
Crawling back and joining Schengen and the euro might be, I suppose.
I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)
Chipping Barnet = no.78.
Both predicted to go red.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1QTW1Szr7ktZeVmbnnJex_CfSifFQSUTtZiBVHSiKTmw/edit#gid=0
The question is, how strong is the evidence for unbelievability, compared with the evidence of actually asking people how they have just voted?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373
I did put a small amount on a Conservative minority as a covering position, and Tories 330-359, so money wise I think I'm ok, but not rich as most bets will have failed.
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.
He became an Exit Pole!
PM Corbyn with a coalition of chaos.
What's GO up to?
LibDems burned; everyone shy now.
the error in the exit poll may be to underestimate Lab gains, with Corbynism sweeping the nation.