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No chance. They got us into this mess.socialliberal said:
Blimey, even more boring that Tezza. It's got to be Gove or Boris.DavidL said:
He may well be PM in a week.TheScreamingEagles said:No wonder Phil Hammond kept quiet during this campaign, he saw this disaster coming.
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Thinking of the reports I read from Labour leaning publications / web sites they either were playing a great game expectation management wise or this is an utter utter shock - or plain wrong0
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The LDs - especially if they lose Farron - have been ridiculous, incredibly lucky.MarkSenior said:Next Lib Dem leader Jo Swinson forecast to win
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Is it all about the dementia tax? This geographical picture makes no sense otherwise!0
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Well, I was right to be bullish about LD prospects.0
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Agree BigJohnbigjohnowls said:OK after the Exit Poll
I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)
However SNP sub 30 not impossible - more seats for Labour there
Mhairi is gone - Ave it posted this on here a few days
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With the change of dynamics of British politics (Scotland, Wales, Brexit, UKIP) maybe this exit poll is destined to be way off?0
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Think of this for a moment; In order to get that we need to hand over fishing rights say, the SNP say "no" as they want control back with them in Holyrood and know that if they hand them back to the EU there would be uproar at the next election. Where do we go from there?foxinsoxuk said:
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.isam said:Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
With FPTP you need strength and strength alone, you cannot govern in coalitions in the long term. This is why I support a change to AV or PR to try and change our politics.0 -
Sunderland south - turnout 61%.0
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Christ! Revenge of the English.ThreeQuidder said:
Only one Tory gain in England: Clacton.Jonathan said:Exit Poll Breakdown
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-401043730 -
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.MarkHopkins said:
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.0 -
I'm on Labour winning High Peak at 10/1Reprobatus said:
I really cannot see Labour winning High Peak.Artist said:Labour won't win High Peak or Thurrock surely
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MPs said that. I was out with one the day after tezza announced it. He said...fuck, fuck, fuck, fuckjonny83 said:
From what I've read Crosby didn't want that social care policy in the manifesto. I bet you that is what has caused this.kle4 said:So, Messina and Crosby, eh? They just heard what they wanted to hear and focused on no hoper seats.
Commiserations to TP.0 -
#Priti4LeaderRobD said:
Yeah, a leadership election right now would be sub-optimal, lol.TheScreamingEagles said:
What's GO up to?
Go on Tories, you know it makes sense.0 -
It didn't say anything about losing 17...Freggles said:
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Yes.jonny83 said:
Think it's a real possibility? Some rainbow coalition/coalition of chaos?Casino_Royale said:
Nah, it'll be worse than this.SouthamObserver said:Tories will win a majority. But this is shocking for May.
PM Corbyn with a coalition of chaos.0 -
Still can't believe they will take it though. Freer was quite a popular MP.waitingfortonight said:Labour candidate for Finchley is head of Jewish Labour Movement.
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They were all hoping for disaster and David Miliband to come back.Floater said:Thinking of the reports I read from Labour leaning publications / web sites they either were playing a great game expectation management wise or this is an utter utter shock - or plain wrong
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General Election 2015: Shipley[6][7] Party Candidate Votes % ±
Conservative Philip Davies 25,269 50.0 +1.4
Labour Steve Clapcote 15,645 31.0 +2.5
UKIP Waqas Khan 4,479 8.9 N/A
Green Kevin Warnes 2,657 5.3 +2.3
Liberal Democrat Andrew Martin 1,949 3.9 -16.2
Yorkshire First Darren Hill 543 1.1 N/A
Majority 9,624 19.0
29% Lab Gain ??0 -
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If the exit poll is overly pessimistic on the SNP it's very possible. If Con go below 300 they can't govern.Casino_Royale said:
Nah, it'll be worse than this.SouthamObserver said:Tories will win a majority. But this is shocking for May.
PM Corbyn with a coalition of chaos.0 -
Well, it was basically that wrong in 2015. 316 prediction, 331 reality. So not impossible to see 314 end up as 335 for example.The_Apocalypse said:
WHAT? The exit poll can't be that wrong.bigjohnowls said:OK after the Exit Poll
I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)0 -
One positive to come out of the night then...Ave_it said:
Mhairi is gone - Ave it posted this on here a few days0 -
Mhairi Black would lose her seat with this exit poll.0
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The EEA won't work for us, unfortunately. We're not Norway, which is prepared to outsource its foreign relations to an outside body without any input into them. It doesn't really work for Norway either - it's a compromise that dissatisfies the pro and anti-EU factions equally. In any case, it's not certain the EU (or Norway for that matter) will offer us it.0
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Bizarre and fascinating on so may levels - and we don't even know which way it's going to go. With all and any scenario, though, the election- polling industry seems to be stuck in a kind of permanent crisis.Freggles said:This is just ridiculously surreal. Three successive shock electoral results. Surely the Tories must out-perform this exit poll.
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John Curtice knows his stuff.MarqueeMark said:
Some of those Labour gains just look weird. No suggestion that Labour thought they were in with a chance in many of the gains that rob the Tories of their majority.....bigjohnowls said:OK after the Exit Poll
I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)
This will be correct. We are relying on Crosby to swing it in a handful of extra seats for the Tories.0 -
Same as being in the EU except you're excused from needing to show up at the meetings where they make decisions.alex. said:All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?
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I agree with all conclusions, I'm going to wait until the first Sunderland seats come in first.Ave_it said:
Agree BigJohnbigjohnowls said:OK after the Exit Poll
I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)
However SNP sub 30 not impossible - more seats for Labour there
Mhairi is gone - Ave it posted this on here a few days0 -
Then Nigel and UKIP come back into the reckoning.Richard_H said:Still think a Tory majority is likely, but less than 50 now. Would be surprised if it was a hung parliament. Brexit is likely to die a death in a hung parliament, as there will not be a team with a mandate to negotiate exit terms.
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Norway and Iceland are not members of the CFP and have full control of their waters.HaroldO said:
Think of this for a moment; In order to get that we need to hand over fishing rights say, the SNP say "no" as they want control back with them in Holyrood and know that if they hand them back to the EU there would be uproar at the next election. Where do we go from there?foxinsoxuk said:
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.isam said:Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
With FPTP you need strength and strength alone, you cannot govern in coalitions in the long term. This is why I support a change to AV or PR to try and change our politics.0 -
Happily the silver lining is that my long wait in Omagh will now be less boring0
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ITEPIR and the LDs hold the "no coalition" deal, it's a Tory minority government.0
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Hard Right of the Tories running government is a nightmare scenario, no.SandyRentool said:
#Priti4LeaderRobD said:
Yeah, a leadership election right now would be sub-optimal, lol.TheScreamingEagles said:
What's GO up to?
Go on Tories, you know it makes sense.0 -
I bet nobody is going to bed anytime soon lol0
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Could end up with that, PM Boris with Lib Dem support putting an EEA/EFTA plan through.foxinsoxuk said:
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.isam said:Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
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So *many* levels, not May's ones !WhisperingOracle said:
Bizarre and fascinating on so may levels - and we don't even know which way it's going to go. With all and any scenario, though, the election- polling industry seems to be stuck in a kind of permanent crisis.Freggles said:This is just ridiculously surreal. Three successive shock electoral results. Surely the Tories must out-perform this exit poll.
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"Projected: Wrexham 99% chance of a Conservative victory"
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-401043730 -
totally agree. They have stoking majoritiesScott_P said:@simon_telegraph: Scottish Tory sources are urging caution over the exit poll - say they cannot see where the SNP loses 22 seats #GE2017
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BenedictWhite said:
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.MarkHopkins said:
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted.
Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.0 -
Yes please!SandyRentool said:
#Priti4LeaderRobD said:
Yeah, a leadership election right now would be sub-optimal, lol.TheScreamingEagles said:
What's GO up to?
Go on Tories, you know it makes sense.0 -
May has to go if the result is anything like this.0
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My lib democrat friend in we London told me that lib Dems were doing well and labour would gain seats.
I didn't believe her. I submit to the lib dem canvassing queen in we London.0 -
Who's your money on?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
Maybe Tory MPs will get suspicious of silent triangulating invisible MPs during significant political events.edmundintokyo said:
The Theresa May StrategyTheScreamingEagles said:No wonder Phil Hammond kept quiet during this campaign, he saw this disaster coming.
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According to the BBC the Lib Dems are going to take Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross and Ross Skye & Lochaber. Oh yea of so little faith.
*buffs nails*0 -
All it would take is for a high profile Leaver to recant and then Brexit would unravel definitively.JosiasJessop said:
No chance. They got us into this mess.socialliberal said:
Blimey, even more boring that Tezza. It's got to be Gove or Boris.DavidL said:
He may well be PM in a week.TheScreamingEagles said:No wonder Phil Hammond kept quiet during this campaign, he saw this disaster coming.
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Yes, this is the thing about this - most Labour people would not have predicted this. But if everyone missed it this much, it could get even worse for Con. No reason to assume it is wrong in their favour - A few SCON gains don't come through, one or two others, and Con below 300?Floater said:Thinking of the reports I read from Labour leaning publications / web sites they either were playing a great game expectation management wise or this is an utter utter shock - or plain wrong
Anecdotal talk of people voting Tory for first time clearly bunkum (Myself excluded).0 -
Not sure but don't think Exit has any Con gains in England.
If so, all Con campaigning in wrong place.0 -
@KayBurley: Ladbrokes 5/4 on that May replaced as Tory leader before Christmas
Should read, before lunchtime0 -
Yeah, right.ThreeQuidder said:
Only one Tory gain in England: Clacton.Jonathan said:Exit Poll Breakdown
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373
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Doesn't work for Norway? Something like 80% of Norwegians are happy with the current arrangement.FF43 said:The EEA won't work for us, unfortunately. We're not Norway, which is prepared to outsource its foreign relations to an outside body without any input into them. It doesn't really work for Norway either - it's a compromise that dissatisfies the pro and anti-EU factions equally. In any case, it's not certain the EU (or Norway for that matter) will offer us it.
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No chance of LD support , post-Brexit, I think.ThreeQuidder said:ITEPIR and the LDs hold the "no coalition" deal, it's a Tory minority government.
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David Davis might get the top job after all.... Been a safe pair of hands so far. Would command confidence to deliver Brexit, I would say.0
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Well, that's better than having to turn up for them to all gang up against you...edmundintokyo said:
Same as being in the EU except you're excused from needing to show up at the meetings where they make decisions.alex. said:All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?
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No one at the moment.HaroldO said:
Who's your money on?TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
The Exit poll seat forecasts on the BBC seem bizarre. Certain gains are all 90%+ chance, and then almost none in the 70%-90% region?0
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What's weird is that in Wales the Tories are making the kind of gains we expected against Labour in working class seats but they aren't in England. Are people that different?0
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Reuters reporting May saying she will go if she does not get 320, so could be PM Hammond by weekend on that basis0
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There are ways of respecting it without doing much. As the economy starts to collapse no one will notice.FrankBooth said:
That's crazy. We had a referendum won by Leave. We have a general election in which both major parties are committed to respecting the referendum result. And then having got the vast majority of seats they conspire to stop it????Roger said:
It means Brexit kicked into the long grass.alex. said:All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?
Remainers (of which I was one) never seem to think things through.0 -
Sounds like the nuneatons of the world regretted their 2015 decisions.glw said:BenedictWhite said:
I suspect highly likely. The ground has changed and I don't know if where the exit polls are done has changed.MarkHopkins said:
It's possible the exit poll has been completely thrown out by the Brexit/Ukip changes.The BBC/ITV/Sky exit poll is conducted by asking a random sample of voters at one of 144 polling locations scattered around the country to complete in private a mock ballot paper to indicate how they just voted.
Nearly all the locations are ones in which the 2015 exit poll was also conducted. The share of the vote recorded for each party at each polling location this time around is compared with the share obtained in the 2015 exit poll in order to derive 144 estimates of change in support for each party.0 -
That's very high for there isn't it?Sandpit said:Sunderland south - turnout 61%.
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Good shout.MarqueeMark said:David Davis might get the top job after all.... Been a safe pair of hands so far. Would command confidence to deliver Brexit, I would say.
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Leave could have had a point if there was a clear and united plan from its backers but they chose to be all things to all people and worry about how it was going to work out later.FF43 said:
Leave was pointless from the start.williamglenn said:
To get from here to there would be an utterly pointless diminution of the UK.Paristonda said:
Yup, EEA / EFTA - Norway model and we keep free movement.TheScreamingEagles said:
Remain in the single market and customs unionalex. said:All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?
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I know, but Reading in general has a very high level of graduates.GarethoftheVale2 said:
The University is in Reading East though.AndyJS said:Theresa May going down extremely well in Wales and Scotland, extremely badly in London and graduate seats like Warwick, Reading West.
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Any different to last time? Forecast was for 58 seats in 2015 was it not?calum said:0 -
Yes it can.The_Apocalypse said:
WHAT? The exit poll can't be that wrong.bigjohnowls said:OK after the Exit Poll
I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)0 -
Five years EFTA/EEA followed by a referendum on the status post that? Wouldn't be a dumb decision.MaxPB said:
Could end up with that, PM Boris with Lib Dem support putting an EEA/EFTA plan through.foxinsoxuk said:
A Coalition agreeing on EEA/EFTA soft Brexit may well work.isam said:Basically we are where we were 3 years ago except we are leaving the EU
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Do we know what the Houghton and Sunderland prediction is from the exit poll?0
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BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.
Does this make sense???0 -
Nearly at H&SS's 2015 declaration time...0
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I will not repeat my observation about Hammond. Yet.DavidL said:
He may well be PM in a week.TheScreamingEagles said:No wonder Phil Hammond kept quiet during this campaign, he saw this disaster coming.
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The big silver lining of 2 elections is that it gives Unionists more time to find out how to tactical vote.0
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Looks like I have to take it all back about the posh boys.....0
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As much as I love politics.... if we have another election this year it's going to be utterly febrile0
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But why would it be?viewcode said:
Yes it can.The_Apocalypse said:
WHAT? The exit poll can't be that wrong.bigjohnowls said:OK after the Exit Poll
I still predict TMICIPM (increased Maj)0 -
"There are 76 seats that our predictions show as being too close to call."ThreeQuidder said:
Only one Tory gain in England: Clacton.Jonathan said:Exit Poll Breakdown
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-401043730 -
This is another EU ref surely. My phone's about to die and when it revives Con majority will be obvious... cos this is too good to be true0
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Thought Curtice would have been on the BBC by now. I want to see how confident he is in the poll.0
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LOL I think the Tories will want her out even in that scenario.HYUFD said:Reuters reporting May saying she will go if she does not get 320, so could be PM Hammond by weekend on that basis
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No. Exit poll is fucked. Which direction however is not so clear.waitingfortonight said:BBC saying Tories nearly certain to capture Clwyd South, Delyn, and Wrexham, all Labour-held Brexit voting marginals with around 2000-3000 majorities. But losing likewise Brexitish Derby North, Bury North, Bolton West, South Ribble, and others, all Tory-Labour Brexit marginals.
Does this make sense???0 -
Told you.Mortimer said:Looks like I have to take it all back about the posh boys.....
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That would only mean the Tories were further away from a majority, though.calum said:0 -
We need to see what the exit poll says the Sunderland result SHOULD be, so we can compare it...
EDIT: ah, says exit poll has 68 Lab:23 Con0 -
Lab retake Copeland?ThreeQuidder said:
Only one Tory gain in England: Clacton.Jonathan said:Exit Poll Breakdown
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election-2017-40104373
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320 would still be 11 fewer than last time!HYUFD said:Reuters reporting May saying she will go if she does not get 320, so could be PM Hammond by weekend on that basis
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OH FUCK. IF THAT HAPPENS WE'RE GREECE WITH NUKES.Morris_Dancer said:...a Lab-SNP coalition could be viable...
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Does anyone have a guess for what the national shares might be, if the exit poll is correct?0
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That would be the best pair of results of the night!TheScreamingEagles said:0 -
RS&L!DavidL said:According to the BBC the Lib Dems are going to take Caithness, Sutherland & Easter Ross and Ross Skye & Lochaber. Oh yea of so little faith.
*buffs nails*
Damn it, I thought they had no chance there.
Come on LDs in Argyll & Bute. It's my only big constituency bet
(Other than everything the bookies would take on Orkney & Sutherland.)0 -
@Torcuil: Nice line from @MatthewParris3 - this is the revenge of the young for Brexit.0
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I can't do another GE this year0
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Mr. 83, I might.
Waiting for the first seats.
The exit poll's horrendous.0