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  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760
    Odds on exit poll being wildly wrong?
  • old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408

    kle4 said:

    At least we will get Soft Brexit now....

    No we won't - that wasn't within the gift of the Tories.
    Huh? Don't know what you mean there.
    It means a hard brexit is determined by what the EU wants, not what the UK government wants - we might go for a softer version now, but we're told they won't play ball.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Maybe running through fields of wheat was not the naughtiest thing that Theresa has done...
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165

    I can't get over that SNP number, 34?

    I'm talking my book here, but I find it hard to believe that Labour have made inroads into the SNP vote but not the Plaid vote.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    jonny83 said:

    Robert Hutton‏Verified account @RobDotHutton 2m2 minutes ago

    Might the exit poll be wrong? Absolutely, and one way in which it might be is postal ballots.

    I thought they polled postal voters?
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    jonny83 said:

    Robert Hutton‏Verified account @RobDotHutton 2m2 minutes ago

    Might the exit poll be wrong? Absolutely, and one way in which it might be is postal ballots.

    My thoughts.

    I hope.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 7,979
    tlg86 said:

    It's Hillary Clinton all over again, isn't it?

    Yep
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    MaxPB said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    EEA/EFTA.
    Which still requires us to complete a formal exit from the Article 50 negotiations with all the humiliating concessions that would require. There's no way a hung parliament would be able to see it through. Brexit is a write off now.
  • WinstanleyWinstanley Posts: 434
    Imagine if Corbyn had a party behind him for two years rather than two weeks
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185
    DavidL said:

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    It really is. No stable government at all and Brexit to negotiate. Total disaster.
    Yup, the Tories went vague to avoid having to hold a position on Brexit and Labour have made huge promises that they will struggle to keep.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,265

    scotslass said:

    what are the voting percentages of the exit poll over UK and Scotland

    They don't do VI, just seats.
    No, I caught a glimpse when they were about to show % estimates of individual seats. Looked like a 1% lead to me. Did others see more?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    She should never have called it. It was not needed.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Pong said:

    BREXIT GETS OVERTURNED

    YIPEEEE!!

    How?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603

    Pong said:

    I think this means Nick Timothy gets his p45.

    Or hung, drawn and quartered!
    Pushed off the Tower of London with tickets for sale please.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    MaxPB said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    EEA/EFTA.
    Plus leaving free movement unchecked + 100 billion euros to EU to stay in single market, Hammond could do it with LD backing but Farage would not believe his luck and would swiftly take back the leadership from Nuttall
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    While a few of you are talking about pollsters potentially going out of business, they'll be recommissioned for the next election, their 4th major polling event in 2.2 years, this is great news for them.
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 18,237

    I feel like remainers did last year......catastrophe and national humiliation. fuck

    Listen to this because it's important. An exit poll is not perfect and there is wriggle room. It might result in less seats for Con, Labour most seats, or a Con maj. We don't know yet. So dinna fash yersel just yet.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Osborne is a c*nt - he isn't a fucking Tory.

    No Tory smiles after this result.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 18,891

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    The country don't like turncoats. Remainer one minute arch Leaver the next. It's not a good look.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    ICM "Gold standard" buried once and for all

    Losers if the poll is confirmed: Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Facebook video creators. How sad!

    The rumour that Rudd is in trouble in Hastings fits with the reports that Labour was doing well in SE and SW.
    The new winners are the leftwing tv news media,taken over from the rightwing newspapers.
  • 2015 exit poll:
    Con 316 (actual 330)
    Lab 239 (actual 232)
    SNP 58 (actual 56)
    LD 10 (actual 8)
    PC 4 (actual 3)
    Green 2 (actual 1)
    UKIP 2 (actual 1)

    2017 exit poll:
    Con 314
    Lab 266
    SNP 34
    LD 14
    PC 3
    Green 1
    UKIP 0

    So Tory almost certainly losing seats in England due to gains in Scotland. And overall majority maybe 50/50????
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    Chris said:

    If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?

    Hammond
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    MaxPB said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    EEA/EFTA.
    Brexit is a journey. I really feel that a failure to recognise this is part of the problem.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    Pong said:

    BREXIT GETS OVERTURNED

    YIPEEEE!!

    LOL now don't get carried away.

    I don't know what to feel about this result, but hopefully whoever governs will not be allowed to go to extremes - that can only be a good thing.

    Also, I voted LD and their seat total went up, so feeling a bit smug about that:)
  • chloechloe Posts: 308
    It's a disaste
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    Nah. The youngsters think the oldies screwed the future with Brexit. So in return they're screwing the present.
  • TheValiantTheValiant Posts: 1,678
    Well done Corbyn. Fantastic result if the exit poll is right. Can't see May surviving past 9am tomorrow morning.

    Another election in three months.
  • Chris_AChris_A Posts: 1,237
    And Mrs May's hubris has cost us 50 million quid, just like Cameron's before.
  • glwglw Posts: 9,535
    I know one thing another election and the turnout will be massive.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Looking at the individual constituency predictions there are some mad percentages ...
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,842
    edited June 2017
    kle4 said:

    Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.

    kle4 said:

    Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.

    Get a new avatar quick! :)
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,725

    She should never have called it. It was not needed.

    I still think TMICIPM

    for a few days at least.

    Presume she has to go without an increased majority
  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    So next Con leader will also have a lack of mandate? :D
  • GarzaGarza Posts: 45
    Odds on another election in a few months time? Certainly possible if exit poll is true.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886
    Unfortunately the LD total going up means that Tim won't go.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,274
    viewcode said:

    I feel like remainers did last year......catastrophe and national humiliation. fuck

    Listen to this because it's important. An exit poll is not perfect and there is wriggle room. It might result in less seats for Con, Labour most seats, or a Con maj. We don't know yet. So dinna fash yersel just yet.
    That's scaring me more it could still be pm corbyn!!!
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    At this moment in time - I understand how remainers felt when those results came in.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    kle4 said:

    Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.

    Corbyn was better than May.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 47,789
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    EEA/EFTA.
    Brexit is a journey. I really feel that a failure to recognise this is part of the problem.
    It's a journey towards a recognition that it has always been utterly misconceived. This result is a huge landmark on that journey.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    Adrian Masters‏ @adrianmasters84 17 min17 minuti fa
    Altro
    Welsh Labour source: 'The political weather remains extremely difficult, and retaining all our Westminster seats remains a challenge.'

    Adrian Masters‏ @adrianmasters84 10 min10 minuti fa
    Altro
    Though the Labour source notes the exit poll figures are just a projection and says ‘there’s a long night ahead.‘
  • OblitusSumMeOblitusSumMe Posts: 9,143
    edited June 2017
    RobD said:

    jonny83 said:

    Robert Hutton‏Verified account @RobDotHutton 2m2 minutes ago

    Might the exit poll be wrong? Absolutely, and one way in which it might be is postal ballots.

    I thought they polled postal voters?
    The exit poll doesn't, and can't, the way it is constructed. But I think they would assume that, say, old people who vote in person would change their votes in the same way as old people who vote by postal vote.

    We will see. That is the big question. When's the first seat with lots of old voters?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879

    ICM "Gold standard" buried once and for all

    Losers if the poll is confirmed: Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Facebook video creators. How sad!

    The rumour that Rudd is in trouble in Hastings fits with the reports that Labour was doing well in SE and SW.

    Nick - I don't believe this poll, but if it's close to being right your man has been totally vindicated. He's still not my man, but what a thing!

  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886

    Looking at the individual constituency predictions there are some mad percentages ...

    Where can you see them?
  • saddosaddo Posts: 534
    This is a complete disaster. Personally expect my pension fund to collapse costing me huge amounts.
    Christ knows what will happen if the bearded communist becomes PM
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 38,548

    She should never have called it. It was not needed.

    Some of us have been saying that for weeks.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.

    Corbyn was better than May.
    Presentationally, yes he was. That was not my issue with him.
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,192
    Think the Tories will end up around 330 now.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    Nah. The youngsters think the oldies screwed the future with Brexit. So in return they're screwing the present.
    Basically.
  • ThreeQuidderThreeQuidder Posts: 6,133
    Dimbers has got fed up with the politicians saying "if the exit poll is correct"!
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    IG con midpoint totally not believing the exit polls, going up, now at 331.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 40,950

    MaxPB said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    EEA/EFTA.
    Which still requires us to complete a formal exit from the Article 50 negotiations with all the humiliating concessions that would require. There's no way a hung parliament would be able to see it through. Brexit is a write off now.
    Who cares about humiliation; we need a good deal. I can live with EEA/EFTA.

    If (big if) Lab voters voted to stop Brexit then they might well have succeeded.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 20,901
    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.

    Corbyn was better than May.
    Presentationally, yes he was. That was not my issue with him.
    Better on policy too.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,697
    edited June 2017
    kle4 said:

    Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.

    It was WFA and social care.

    You mess with an Englishman's "castle" and you pay the price...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,921
    I'm hearing lots of TCTC seats....
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,010

    Chris said:

    If this exit poll is right, then it is difficult to see how the Tories can govern on the basis of hard Brexit. So will political expediency prevail, and will the Tories ditch May in favour of someone with a more pragmatic approach? If so, who?

    Hammond
    Ah.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719

    MaxPB said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    EEA/EFTA.
    Which still requires us to complete a formal exit from the Article 50 negotiations with all the humiliating concessions that would require. There's no way a hung parliament would be able to see it through. Brexit is a write off now.
    The Tories are still the largest party and their voters strongly voted for Brexit, so no way the Tory Party could reverse Brexit and survive, we would end up with a Canada situation and UKIP perhaps even overtaking them, single market may be possible but even then hard Brexiteers would be unhappy
  • dr_spyndr_spyn Posts: 11,279
    https://twitter.com/FT/status/872925839276613632

    How many polling firms might be wondering if their reputations are damaged?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Labour moderates spotted crawling on their bellies toward Jeremy Corbyn.
  • FF43FF43 Posts: 15,547
    DavidL said:

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    It really is. No stable government at all and Brexit to negotiate. Total disaster.
    Of all the dumb things this government has done over Brexit, the most most profoundly stupid was to call the election AFTER triggering Article 50.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    I'm surprised Con Maj is favourite.

    Losing several seats by 10%

    And including lots of Scotland seats.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,603
    rcs1000 said:

    MaxPB said:

    alex. said:

    All these people saying "now it's soft Brexit". Could somebody explain what "soft Brexit "means?

    EEA/EFTA.
    Brexit is a journey. I really feel that a failure to recognise this is part of the problem.
    Yes, I think that's a big failing by a lot of people on the Leave side.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886

    Adrian Masters‏ @adrianmasters84 17 min17 minuti fa
    Altro
    Welsh Labour source: 'The political weather remains extremely difficult, and retaining all our Westminster seats remains a challenge.'

    Adrian Masters‏ @adrianmasters84 10 min10 minuti fa
    Altro
    Though the Labour source notes the exit poll figures are just a projection and says ‘there’s a long night ahead.‘

    Hmm. The complete collapse of UNS means that this poll could potentially still be bollocks. Unlikely though.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,879
    DavidL said:

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    It really is. No stable government at all and Brexit to negotiate. Total disaster.

    The right opened a can of worms with Brexit. They have lost control of the narrative.

  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Do we get the percentage splits for this seat projection? Anyone know?
  • isamisam Posts: 40,731
    GOOD MORNING VENEZUELA!
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Mortimer said:

    I'm hearing lots of TCTC seats....

    76 apparently.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956

    Dimbers has got fed up with the politicians saying "if the exit poll is correct"!

    Good old Dimbers. Huw Edwards just won't be as good.

    Maybe we'll get Dimbers again for the 2017 re-run though!
  • MonksfieldMonksfield Posts: 2,192
    Laura looks like she's drunk a cup of sick. lol!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Jonathan said:

    kle4 said:

    Truly truly shocked. Young must have shown up, which is good, and the elderly either not shown up or not sticking to the Tories as much as before, and the middle demographics liking Corbyn's campaign and message.

    Corbyn was better than May.
    Presentationally, yes he was. That was not my issue with him.
    Better on policy too.
    I'll disagree on that. Better sounding policies.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    BBC: senior Labour figure doesn't think the figures are believable.
  • StereotomyStereotomy Posts: 4,092
    I've got to say, I'd feel a bit worse if pb tories hadn't been so unbearably smug up until today.
  • rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787
    Après May le deluge?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 116,719
    edited June 2017
    L Kuenssberg saying both Tories and Labour on ground texting her they don't believe exit poll, presumably they are already seeing votes being counted but we shall see
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400

    ICM "Gold standard" buried once and for all

    Losers if the poll is confirmed: Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Facebook video creators. How sad!

    The rumour that Rudd is in trouble in Hastings fits with the reports that Labour was doing well in SE and SW.

    Nick - I don't believe this poll, but if it's close to being right your man has been totally vindicated. He's still not my man, but what a thing!

    Just think though, if Labour had a decent leader they would be in power now - although May would never have dared call an election in the first place.
  • bloke on Sky reckons Chipping Barnet up for grabs. Really!?
  • numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,414
    I feel quite sanguine, bizarrely.

    Changes the narrative to what sort of Brexit we want. So long as we're looking at no progressive alliance (please god no) maybe everyone can come together and try and step back from the extreme.

    They should dump May though. Proven to be useless.
  • Ave_itAve_it Posts: 2,411
    The Sunderland and Newcastle results won't tell us much

    Nuneaton, Swindon N and Wrexham will give you the first real guide
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 61,590
    The Lab/Con minority government bets might still be decent value given the marked reluctance of anyone to consider coalition ?
    Bouncing around, but currently something like 30 and 3 respectively on Betfair.

    Hating having to agree with McMao on the BBC, but otoh, I've always despised Fallon.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,778
    kle4 said:

    kle4 said:

    At least we will get Soft Brexit now....

    No we won't - that wasn't within the gift of the Tories.
    Huh? Don't know what you mean there.
    It means a hard brexit is determined by what the EU wants, not what the UK government wants - we might go for a softer version now, but we're told they won't play ball.
    I think that's absolute bullshit, to be honest. The fact is that the EU would be overjoyed if we paid €10bn a year, received no EU spending, and had only limited say in EU laws.

    But.

    I can't repeat this enough. Brexit is a journey. A three to five year EEA stopgap works for us, and works for the EU.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,165
    FFS, the Exit Poll will be right within the MoE.
  • camelcamel Posts: 815
    In heaven, Gerald Kaufmann apologises to Michael Foot.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I actually did it straight after the 2015 election in order to see what sort of swing Labour would need to win the next election.
  • midwintermidwinter Posts: 1,112
    JonathanD said:

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    It went insane last June. Tory Brexiteers indulged themselves ahead of the country and are now paying the price.
    Less than a year after winning a majority. Tossers never learn.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2017

    She should never have called it. It was not needed.

    Some of us have been saying that for weeks.
    I said it the day it was called.

    Also predicted a couple of weeks ago the same-sized majority in 2017 as in 2015. Could still be on for that.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    I'm tired of hearing it's going to be some massive disaster if May/A Tory isn't PM.

    As if Hard Brexit wasn't going to be a disaster.

    It will probably *not* be a disaster.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 58,941
    edited June 2017

    I've got to say, I'd feel a bit worse if pb tories hadn't been so unbearably smug up until today.

    PB Tories are never not unbearably smug :smiley:
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,281
    MPs won't go for Leadsom.

    Needs big personality - Boris most likely for me.
  • HaroldOHaroldO Posts: 1,185

    DavidL said:

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    It really is. No stable government at all and Brexit to negotiate. Total disaster.

    The right opened a can of worms with Brexit. They have lost control of the narrative.

    Once people believed in one fairy story they were happy to believe in more, fucking hell. If this is the long term thank fuck I am already planning to emigrate.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Chameleon said:

    Looking at the individual constituency predictions there are some mad percentages ...

    Where can you see them?
    BBC website...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 91,408
    FF43 said:

    DavidL said:

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    It really is. No stable government at all and Brexit to negotiate. Total disaster.
    Of all the dumb things this government has done over Brexit, the most most profoundly stupid was to call the election AFTER triggering Article 50.
    It was peculiar - so many of us were so certain that meant no early election would happen. The Tories didn't seem prepared, it really seems like they saw the big poll leads and just went for it. The fools.

    Too close to the 2016 vote - the young were not going to make the mistake of not turning up this time.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,886

    Mortimer said:

    I'm hearing lots of TCTC seats....

    76 apparently.
    Lots in Scotland apparently, so if we call 15 TCTC, That's 60 in E&W - so Con could be up to 344 if it's a little low on Con. Buy Con majority 25-50.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,037

    What an unmitigated disaster. The country has gone utterly insane.

    Let me correct it for you buddy. Theresa May is an unmitigated disaster...
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    ICM "Gold standard" buried once and for all

    Losers if the poll is confirmed: Mail, Sun, Telegraph, Facebook video creators. How sad!

    The rumour that Rudd is in trouble in Hastings fits with the reports that Labour was doing well in SE and SW.
    I would love to see Rudd toppled in Hastings. She is an absolutely horrid woman. I hope Nicholas Wilson gets a good vote on his anti-corruption message. Still think she'll hold though!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 49,963
    Problem with calling a Brexit election was that Brexit is happening. So what is there to talk about? Everything except Brexit. That seemed to blindside CCHQ.

    Then Dementia Tax. Fucking madness. Just hubris - we can talk about the big, unpopular stuff because we are both Govt. and Opposition.



  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @holyroodmandy: Quick by-election & @RuthDavidsonMSP becomes an MSP, an MP and PM while @IainMcGill is an MP, MSP & MEP #exitpoll #GE17
This discussion has been closed.