politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six hours or so before we start to get an idea
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It is a very strange suggestion. If for example the UK adopted fairly strict immigration rules - and of course I hope they don't - then effectively there would be a hontinuation of freedom of movement for UK citizens whilst there were restrictions on all other EU citizens entering the UK. It would greatly help the UK whilst harming the EU.Alanbrooke said:
So very EURobD said:
Sounds like an administrative nightmare.Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship
I just don't see how it is workable0 -
If anyone was following the discussion RCS and I had yesterday about household debt and student loans:
' the comforting official view on UK household and in particular unsecured credit has been strongly influenced by the removal of student loans from it in the summer of 2012. Otherwise today’s headline would be household debts are now circa £1.6 trillion. '
https://notayesmanseconomics.wordpress.com/2016/11/07/it-is-time-to-put-student-loans-back-in-the-uk-debt-numbers/
I'm sure I'm not the only PBer who remembers when £10bn was considered 'big money'. But now a £100bn can be removed from the household debt data and it's hardly noticed.
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Do you really think Farage wants Brexit to go smoothly and be a big success?rottenborough said:
What a surprise. Did he really not see that this is what would happen and chances are the Left will rally against it and the whole thing will be a riot.619 said:Farage organises the jackboots
https://twitter.com/TheMichaelMoran/status/796067135445409797
And to what purpose?
Parliament is not going to block A50.0 -
By "early vote" they mean in-person. Yes, this is very confusing since it can be used to refer to all ballots cast early including mail. Vote by mail is often treated seperately however.Chris said:Can anyone explain to me why VoteCastr's early vote for Florida is 3,685,667, when the official figure is about 6.5 million?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/08/votecastr_early_vote_estimate_clinton_leads_in_florida.html
I can't make sense of their figures at all.
Even worse different states have different terminology, some will still call vote by mail "absentee ballots" etc.
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When, and more to the point, why, did the British media appoint Luntz as the foremost authority on US politics ?JackW said:Frank Luntz on Channel 4 News on his reports - Clinton 95% chance of winning.
(Incidentally, I think his hair looks less real than Trump's.)0 -
I know I've got burned by the S.Carolina Primary early exit poll figures:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/exit-polls-what-do-voters-want-230935
" Early exit polls: Voters say they want a ‘strong leader’ "
cough "Trump" cough
"Asked what characteristic is most important for the next president, 36 percent of voters say they want a “strong leader,” 29 percent want “a vision for the future,” 16 percent want someone who “cares about people like me” and another 16 percent said they want someone who “shares my values.” "0 -
Limoncello tastes like toilet cleaner.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.0 -
The low "shares my values" could be good for either candidate.Speedy said:I know I've got burned by the S.Carolina Primary early exit poll figures:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/exit-polls-what-do-voters-want-230935
" Early exit polls: Voters say they want a ‘strong leader’ "
cough "Trump" cough
"Asked what characteristic is most important for the next president, 36 percent of voters say they want a “strong leader,” 29 percent want “a vision for the future,” 16 percent want someone who “cares about people like me” and another 16 percent said they want someone who “shares my values.” "0 -
cough * South Carolina * coughSpeedy said:I know I've got burned by the S.Carolina Primary early exit poll figures:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/exit-polls-what-do-voters-want-230935
" Early exit polls: Voters say they want a ‘strong leader’ "
cough "Trump" cough
"Asked what characteristic is most important for the next president, 36 percent of voters say they want a “strong leader,” 29 percent want “a vision for the future,” 16 percent want someone who “cares about people like me” and another 16 percent said they want someone who “shares my values.” "0 -
I'm watching votecstr...it looks quite credible. I don't understand their methodology ...but they have some maps and stuff and the people seem quite sensible.
And it's saying the same as Jack's ARSE0 -
Reread @Speedy 's post more carefully please.Richard_Nabavi said:
cough * South Carolina * coughSpeedy said:I know I've got burned by the S.Carolina Primary early exit poll figures:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/exit-polls-what-do-voters-want-230935
" Early exit polls: Voters say they want a ‘strong leader’ "
cough "Trump" cough
"Asked what characteristic is most important for the next president, 36 percent of voters say they want a “strong leader,” 29 percent want “a vision for the future,” 16 percent want someone who “cares about people like me” and another 16 percent said they want someone who “shares my values.” "0 -
To paraphrase another contributor
Heart says Clinton
Head says Clinton
Gut says Clinton..
Clinton landslide.. The yanks really are not all total idiots...0 -
Gypsies, Tramps and Thieves?williamglenn said:
Cher has been out on the campaign trail for Hillary. "If I could turn back time..."MarqueeMark said:
I'd go with my idea of passing a Bill to put the American clocks back 2 years, and start over with new candidates. Meanwhile, as it's only 2014, Obama has two more years left to serve.....Sandpit said:
Please no, don't let this be the result!Speedy said:I haven't posted a 270 prediction, so here's my risque prediction:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/bWwbA
Looks a bit 1976 in reverse.
On second thoughts, if this is the result, can we let Barry stay for a third term?
That's an elaboration on Deplorables, I guess.0 -
Just as the arrogance and complacency of the Cameroons led to Brexit could the arrogance and complacency of the Clintons lead to Trump ?Jonathan said:
Trump should have been out of this weeks ago if politics was played by traditional rules. The split Republican party alone should have spelt doom. But it didn't. He was still there in with a shout this morning. Something out there is sustaining him.SouthamObserver said:
That's me pretty much. This is not like Brexit because I knew without a shadow of a doubt that leave would win. But this one just feels bad. Trump is so utterly ill-suited to becoming president, is a racist and a sexual predator and so my heart and head tell me he surely cannot do it. But my gut just keeps on saying that this is 2016 and the US is a society divided like never before. For every voter repelled by Trump's racism and misogyny, another has no problem with them and another actively likes them. If turnout is as high as people are saying it's hard to see how he loses.Jonathan said:Head says Clinton
Heart says Clinton
Gut says Trump
Marry that with the lack of obvious enthusiasm for Clinton and the gut rumbles.
Still the data points to Clinton.
If Trump was the equivalent of Boris and not Trump then the Republicans would be heading for a landslide.
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Omg comedy gold.
Watch
NVElection WATCH: Court hearing - Trump suing Clark County registrar over early voting hours being extended #8NN
http://bit.ly/2bcID8U0 -
53% of voters are angry.RobD said:
The low "shares my values" could be good for either candidate.Speedy said:I know I've got burned by the S.Carolina Primary early exit poll figures:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/exit-polls-what-do-voters-want-230935
" Early exit polls: Voters say they want a ‘strong leader’ "
cough "Trump" cough
"Asked what characteristic is most important for the next president, 36 percent of voters say they want a “strong leader,” 29 percent want “a vision for the future,” 16 percent want someone who “cares about people like me” and another 16 percent said they want someone who “shares my values.” "
The rest of the numbers are also Trumpian in nature especially with Independents.0 -
According to votecastr Trump only winning in Florida in old, white and poor areas.0
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Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.0 -
You means smells like toilet cleaner ?Sean_F said:
Limoncello tastes like toilet cleaner.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.
Well I hope you do.
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Dems are 26k ahead in Hillsborough, Bill Mitchell forgot to include the tick box to include postals.0
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The no cherry picking rule applies to national negotiations. The Associate EU passport holders are dual nationals and can sail through the EEA channels while diehard Bexiteers with British passports are stuck in the Other Aliens channel sorting out their visas. It's no different, say, from dual UK and French nationality. It's a cunning plan from the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, that's very generous of them. I'm not sure how it squares with their stated principle that we can't cherry-pick the benefits of the EU, though.Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship
Based on the discussion FPT, it's PB Leavers who are keenest on getting EU passports. Accusations of hypocrisy are of course unwarranted.0 -
Thank you. Even so, it seems the figure is incomplete, as it's nearly 200,000 less than the in-person total - and actually I see now it says they haven't yet processed all the early voting data and people should check back for updates. I wonder if they'll finish it before the polls close!brokenwheel said:
By "early vote" they mean in-person. Yes, this is very confusing since it can be used to refer to all ballot cast early including mail. Vote by mail is often treated seperately however.Chris said:Can anyone explain to me why VoteCastr's early vote for Florida is 3,685,667, when the official figure is about 6.5 million?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/08/votecastr_early_vote_estimate_clinton_leads_in_florida.html
I can't make sense of their figures at all.
Even worse different states have different terminology, some will still call vote by mail "absentee ballots" etc.0 -
Brexit was a one-off vote - a chance in a lifetime affair. If I knew there'd be Euroref 3 in five years' time, I might have voted Remain on a "give them one last chance" basis. As it seemed a "once in 30 years, if that" vote, I had a good think about how the EU might look in the far future, whether I'd be happy if Britain were a part of it, and left with only one palatable option. I don't know how many other Leave voters applied my logic, but the way turn-out was high among groups with poor historical voting records suggests the one-off nature of the event was important. (I accept that "every vote matters" when it's not FPTP, which also got some backsides off seats.)nielh said:This feels very brexitty.
I've not followed the polls, but my gut says trump will win. In the last minute people would be more likely to swich to trump than back a failing status quo, in that sense it is like brexit over again.
Trump's anti-elitist "power to the little people" shtick channels Andrew Jackson in many ways (and incidentally his 1828 election was so scandal-ridden and rumbustious that it was believed to have caused the death of the would-be First Lady Rachel Jackson before the inauguration) but as a vehicles for the overlooked outsider go, Trump would be an ironic choice. Many regular conservative voters won't rally around him, if they manage to hold their nose to vote for him at all. HRC may be uninspiring, but is this really the little guys' last chance to stick one up to The Establishment?
It doesn't seem to me that a Clinton win will seal in the present order of things much more than, say, Obama 2012 did. Contrast Brexit, where any non-eurofederalist had to be concerned that a Remain vote could lock Britain in to a trajectory for political union for two generations, and that a campaign based on trade and the economy and only-vile-racists-could-possibly-want-to-vote-for-any-form-of-controls-on-immigration (and you're not a horrible racist now, are you?) would be used as a pretext, decades hence, of a "democratic mandate" for deeper integration. After years evading popular mood on this point, Britain's political class gave its people one chance to have their say. What do you do when you've got one shot? You hit'em where it hurts, while you still can. This may have been an extraordinary election, but four years away the US will have another. The hubbub starts in a mere 2.5 years. Republicans are understandably going big on the Supreme Court nominations, but Clinton can't realistically fix the destiny of the entire USA for the next 30 years. She's not big enough. Most likely the office of the presidency isn't big enough. As such, I doubt HRC is scary and totemic enough to bring out those once-in-a-generation voters Trump needs.0 -
They've ended up with the choice of Trump or Clinton.timmo said:To paraphrase another contributor
Heart says Clinton
Head says Clinton
Gut says Clinton..
Clinton landslide.. The yanks really are not all total idiots...
Which suggests a great many of them ARE total idiots.0 -
I know, if this was a GOP primary and these numbers got leaked out I would say Trump probably won.Richard_Nabavi said:
cough * South Carolina * coughSpeedy said:I know I've got burned by the S.Carolina Primary early exit poll figures:
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/exit-polls-what-do-voters-want-230935
" Early exit polls: Voters say they want a ‘strong leader’ "
cough "Trump" cough
"Asked what characteristic is most important for the next president, 36 percent of voters say they want a “strong leader,” 29 percent want “a vision for the future,” 16 percent want someone who “cares about people like me” and another 16 percent said they want someone who “shares my values.” "
Voters are angry and want a Strong Leader=Trump.
But this is not a GOP primary, so caution.0 -
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I hope nobody placed bets on the earlier info.Pulpstar said:Dems are 26k ahead in Hillsborough, Bill Mitchell forgot to include the tick box to include postals.
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I don't quite agree with @Richard_Nabavi about drinking and gambling. I find that one or two beers on an election night give me the ability to relax and trust my judgement when if I'm stone cold sober I overthink things and jump too late. But only one or two, not more.
Anyway, for domestic reasons I'll be sitting this election night out and I'm arranging my betting positions accordingly. I'll be around for a while but I wish everyone a profitable evening.0 -
A couple of interesting reads, from various parts of the political spectrum and taking quite different angles on the analogy, regarding the "Donald Trump as Andrew Jackson" idea:
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/03/gop-2016-andrew-jackson-1824-213726
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/02/17/opinion/campaign-stops/donald-trumps-secret-channelling-andrew-jackson.html?_r=0
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/436544/donald-trumps-jacksonian-voters-andrew-jacksons-nationalist-politics-are-back
http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/07/andrew_jackson_trumps_template_for_success.html
http://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-election-populism-commentary-idUSKCN0Y20BV (which concludes Trump is more of a Michael Bay!)
https://newrepublic.com/article/132031/ever-president-like-donald-trump
http://www.theatlantic.com/magazine/archive/2016/06/the-mind-of-donald-trump/480771/0 -
**** HEALTH WARNING ****
Votecastr numbers :
CO - C 47 .. T 42
FL - C 49 .. T 45
IA - C 45 .. T 46
NV - C 47 .. T 44
OH - C 46 .. T 45
PA - C 48 .. T 44
WI - C 49 .. T 43
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html0 -
I'm with you on that theory Alastair. Sorry we won't have you for the whole night - and good luck to you too!AlastairMeeks said:I don't quite agree with @Richard_Nabavi about drinking and gambling. I find that one or two beers on an election night give me the ability to relax and trust my judgement when if I'm stone cold sober I overthink things and jump too late. But only one or two, not more.
Anyway, for domestic reasons I'll be sitting this election night out and I'm arranging my betting positions accordingly. I'll be around for a while but I wish everyone a profitable evening.0 -
You are still peddling the Votecastr thing ?JackW said:**** HEALTH WARNING ****
Votecastr numbers :
CO - C 47 .. T 42
FL - C 49 .. T 45
IA - C 45 .. T 46
NV - C 47 .. T 44
OH - C 46 .. T 45
PA - C 48 .. T 44
WI - C 49 .. T 43
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html0 -
I have just realised who Trump reminds me of and its Robert Maxwell .
Exactly the same modus operandi and attitude to people.0 -
This looks great for Clinton in NV. Clark is her firewall
https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/7960732129204838400 -
Clinton landslideJackW said:**** HEALTH WARNING ****
Votecastr numbers :
CO - C 47 .. T 42
FL - C 49 .. T 45
IA - C 45 .. T 46
NV - C 47 .. T 44
OH - C 46 .. T 45
PA - C 48 .. T 44
WI - C 49 .. T 43
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html0 -
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If accurate, and that's a mighty big if.timmo said:
Clinton landslideJackW said:**** HEALTH WARNING ****
Votecastr numbers :
CO - C 47 .. T 42
FL - C 49 .. T 45
IA - C 45 .. T 46
NV - C 47 .. T 44
OH - C 46 .. T 45
PA - C 48 .. T 44
WI - C 49 .. T 43
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html0 -
This is just the total early vote figure, https://countyballotfiles.elections.myflorida.com/FVRSCountyBallotReports/AbsenteeEarlyVotingReports/PublicStatsPulpstar said:Dems are 26k ahead in Hillsborough, Bill Mitchell forgot to include the tick box to include postals.
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Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.Sean_F said:
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.
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Obama has spent the day working out:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/11/08/us-election-2016-america-starts-to-vote-in-most-divisive-electio/0 -
I'm guessing it's because they lack sufficient information on those voters to make a reliable prediction how they voted. It's a problem when you make predictive models with too many features (aka variables).Chris said:Can anyone explain to me why VoteCastr's early vote for Florida is 3,685,667, when the official figure is about 6.5 million?
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Can you tell me what brand of toilet cleaner you get? I'd like to buy some :-)Sean_F said:
Limoncello tastes like toilet cleaner.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.
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0
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Avoid Romanian brandy. Bought some when I was over there, out of curiosity. Once opened and sampled, we ended up with guys brawling on the lawn!SouthamObserver said:
Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.Sean_F said:
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.0 -
No posts for 4 minutes, on PB, on Election Day. Remarkable!0
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What don't you understand by "HEALTH WARNING" in capital letters ?!?!?Speedy said:
You are still peddling the Votecastr thing ?JackW said:**** HEALTH WARNING ****
Votecastr numbers :
CO - C 47 .. T 42
FL - C 49 .. T 45
IA - C 45 .. T 46
NV - C 47 .. T 44
OH - C 46 .. T 45
PA - C 48 .. T 44
WI - C 49 .. T 43
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html
Tsk ....0 -
There was a lot of talk of rigging before Brexit and people taking pens to the polling booths so MI5 couldn't change their votes...619 said:this isnt the actions of someone winning
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More orange though.timmo said:I have just realised who Trump reminds me of and its Robert Maxwell .
Exactly the same modus operandi and attitude to people.
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Sounds like Šljivovica.MarqueeMark said:
Avoid Romanian brandy. Bought some when I was over there, out of curiosity. Once opened and sampled, we ended up with guys brawling on the lawn!SouthamObserver said:
Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.Sean_F said:
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.
Or, indeed, the US election.0 -
Hilarious. Or brilliant. We'll know by 6am.RobD said:
If accurate, and that's a mighty big if.timmo said:
Clinton landslideJackW said:**** HEALTH WARNING ****
Votecastr numbers :
CO - C 47 .. T 42
FL - C 49 .. T 45
IA - C 45 .. T 46
NV - C 47 .. T 44
OH - C 46 .. T 45
PA - C 48 .. T 44
WI - C 49 .. T 43
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html0 -
Indeed it motivates the base, conservatives in the US always have a bee in their bonnet about it.williamglenn said:
There was a lot of talk of rigging before Brexit and people taking pens to the polling booths so MI5 couldn't change their votes...619 said:this isnt the actions of someone winning
In fact complaining about vote-rigging is about the most Republican thing Trump has done all election...0 -
My most dangerous drinking session - and my worst ever hangover - involved a bottle of absinthe in Sweden. One minute I was drinking shots of it around a camp fire, the next it was five hours later and I was waking up alone in the middle of a forest with no idea where I was. Took me until daylight to find my way home and I was ill for two days. The mosquito bites were horrific.MarqueeMark said:
Avoid Romanian brandy. Bought some when I was over there, out of curiosity. Once opened and sampled, we ended up with guys brawling on the lawn!SouthamObserver said:
Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.Sean_F said:
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.
0 -
And if those figures are just for in-person early votes their Clinton leads are very difficult to make sense of. Their estimated Clinton lead for early [in-person] vote is 2.8%, compared with 4% based on party registration in the official figures. Possible if Trump had a lead of 6% among unaffiliated voters,Chris said:
Thank you. Even so, it seems the figure is incomplete, as it's nearly 200,000 less than the in-person total - and actually I see now it says they haven't yet processed all the early voting data and people should check back for updates. I wonder if they'll finish it before the polls close!brokenwheel said:
By "early vote" they mean in-person. Yes, this is very confusing since it can be used to refer to all ballot cast early including mail. Vote by mail is often treated seperately however.Chris said:Can anyone explain to me why VoteCastr's early vote for Florida is 3,685,667, when the official figure is about 6.5 million?
http://www.slate.com/blogs/the_slatest/2016/11/08/votecastr_early_vote_estimate_clinton_leads_in_florida.html
I can't make sense of their figures at all.
Even worse different states have different terminology, some will still call vote by mail "absentee ballots" etc.
Presumably that 2.8% lead would go down considerably when postal votes were added, because the Republicans were ahead in those.
But the live figure shows a Clinton lead of 3.7%, despite the fact that the total number of voters shown is only 800,000 more than the 6.5m early voters of both categories, and the expectation has been that the Clinton lead would be cut back on polling day.
Perhaps not worth the time to figure it out?0 -
Although its a bit rubbish model that is exactly what the polls were showing for most of the race.JackW said:
What don't you understand by "HEALTH WARNING" in capital letters ?!?!?Speedy said:
You are still peddling the Votecastr thing ?JackW said:**** HEALTH WARNING ****
Votecastr numbers :
CO - C 47 .. T 42
FL - C 49 .. T 45
IA - C 45 .. T 46
NV - C 47 .. T 44
OH - C 46 .. T 45
PA - C 48 .. T 44
WI - C 49 .. T 43
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html
Tsk ....0 -
-
The Kincannon Show @kincannon_show 37m37 minutes ago
Trump should be declared the victor by about 9:45 tonight, based on the exit poll data I have.
Blimey0 -
How reliable is he?Pulpstar said:The Kincannon Show @kincannon_show 37m37 minutes ago
Trump should be declared the victor by about 9:45 tonight, based on the exit poll data I have.
Blimey0 -
Absinthe makes the heart.... stop.SouthamObserver said:
My most dangerous drinking session - and my worst ever hangover - involved a bottle of absinthe in Sweden. One minute I was drinking shots of it around a camp fire, the next it was five hours later and I was waking up alone in the middle of a forest with no idea where I was. Took me until daylight to find my way home and I was ill for two days. The mosquito bites were horrific.MarqueeMark said:
Avoid Romanian brandy. Bought some when I was over there, out of curiosity. Once opened and sampled, we ended up with guys brawling on the lawn!SouthamObserver said:
Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.Sean_F said:
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.
0 -
I'm guessing he has a Trump show to rampAndyJS said:
How reliable is he?Pulpstar said:The Kincannon Show @kincannon_show 37m37 minutes ago
Trump should be declared the victor by about 9:45 tonight, based on the exit poll data I have.
Blimey
0 -
You mention horrific mosquito bites. When you came to in the middle of the forest, were you still clothed ?SouthamObserver said:
My most dangerous drinking session - and my worst ever hangover - involved a bottle of absinthe in Sweden. One minute I was drinking shots of it around a camp fire, the next it was five hours later and I was waking up alone in the middle of a forest with no idea where I was. Took me until daylight to find my way home and I was ill for two days. The mosquito bites were horrific.MarqueeMark said:
Avoid Romanian brandy. Bought some when I was over there, out of curiosity. Once opened and sampled, we ended up with guys brawling on the lawn!SouthamObserver said:
Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.Sean_F said:
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.0 -
LOL. (Are you being serious, I can't tell with thus election anymore).MarqueeMark said:0 -
Shorts and T-shirt.MonikerDiCanio said:
You mention horrific mosquito bites. When you came to in the middle of the forest were you still clothed ?SouthamObserver said:
My most dangerous drinking session - and my worst ever hangover - involved a bottle of absinthe in Sweden. One minute I was drinking shots of it around a camp fire, the next it was five hours later and I was waking up alone in the middle of a forest with no idea where I was. Took me until daylight to find my way home and I was ill for two days. The mosquito bites were horrific.MarqueeMark said:
Avoid Romanian brandy. Bought some when I was over there, out of curiosity. Once opened and sampled, we ended up with guys brawling on the lawn!SouthamObserver said:
Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.Sean_F said:
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.
0 -
https://twitter.com/kincannon_show/status/796071808281755649AndyJS said:
How reliable is he?Pulpstar said:The Kincannon Show @kincannon_show 37m37 minutes ago
Trump should be declared the victor by about 9:45 tonight, based on the exit poll data I have.
Blimey
0 -
Looking as if they are ARSE aficionados!JackW said:**** HEALTH WARNING ****
Votecastr numbers :
CO - C 47 .. T 42
FL - C 49 .. T 45
IA - C 45 .. T 46
NV - C 47 .. T 44
OH - C 46 .. T 45
PA - C 48 .. T 44
WI - C 49 .. T 43
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html
May I also commend Metaxa XO special reserve brandy. Hard to get, but worth the search and very distinctive. I plan a little tipple later for medicinal purposes.0 -
Oh dear. Look at his reply to Glen Oglaza. Best to ignore.SouthamObserver said:
https://twitter.com/kincannon_show/status/796071808281755649AndyJS said:
How reliable is he?Pulpstar said:The Kincannon Show @kincannon_show 37m37 minutes ago
Trump should be declared the victor by about 9:45 tonight, based on the exit poll data I have.
Blimey0 -
https://twitter.com/kincannon_show/status/796068915877183488
Rigged election seems to be a Trumper get out clause...0 -
Their model will be analysed to within an inch of a hanging chad after the election come what may.nunu said:
Although its a bit rubbish model that is exactly what the polls were showing for most of the race.JackW said:
What don't you understand by "HEALTH WARNING" in capital letters ?!?!?Speedy said:
You are still peddling the Votecastr thing ?JackW said:**** HEALTH WARNING ****
Votecastr numbers :
CO - C 47 .. T 42
FL - C 49 .. T 45
IA - C 45 .. T 46
NV - C 47 .. T 44
OH - C 46 .. T 45
PA - C 48 .. T 44
WI - C 49 .. T 43
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html
Tsk ....
My attitude is that I link to to the information and allow PBers to make their own mind up. After all I posted the LA Times tracker and Rasmuusen too .....
0 -
Well whoever he is, he is predicting that Trump will win before polls close in Nevada.Pulpstar said:The Kincannon Show @kincannon_show 37m37 minutes ago
Trump should be declared the victor by about 9:45 tonight, based on the exit poll data I have.
Blimey
There are a lot of rumours going around Twitter regarding exit polls, including the Votecastr thing, but the only concrete evidence we have is the Politico Exit Poll that feels Trumpy on first sight.0 -
It's a mercy that you'll never know what occurred in those five lost hours.SouthamObserver said:
Shorts and T-shirt.MonikerDiCanio said:
You mention horrific mosquito bites. When you came to in the middle of the forest were you still clothed ?SouthamObserver said:
My most dangerous drinking session - and my worst ever hangover - involved a bottle of absinthe in Sweden. One minute I was drinking shots of it around a camp fire, the next it was five hours later and I was waking up alone in the middle of a forest with no idea where I was. Took me until daylight to find my way home and I was ill for two days. The mosquito bites were horrific.MarqueeMark said:
Avoid Romanian brandy. Bought some when I was over there, out of curiosity. Once opened and sampled, we ended up with guys brawling on the lawn!SouthamObserver said:
Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.Sean_F said:
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.0 -
I thought you did that for purely entertainment value.JackW said:
Their model will be analysed to within an inch of a hanging chad after the election come what may.nunu said:
Although its a bit rubbish model that is exactly what the polls were showing for most of the race.JackW said:
What don't you understand by "HEALTH WARNING" in capital letters ?!?!?Speedy said:
You are still peddling the Votecastr thing ?JackW said:**** HEALTH WARNING ****
Votecastr numbers :
CO - C 47 .. T 42
FL - C 49 .. T 45
IA - C 45 .. T 46
NV - C 47 .. T 44
OH - C 46 .. T 45
PA - C 48 .. T 44
WI - C 49 .. T 43
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html
Tsk ....
My attitude is that I link to to the information and allow PBers to make their own mind up. After all I posted the LA Times tracker and Rasmuusen too .....0 -
We got something from Naples, FL.
In the primaries it gave us a good idea for who won Florida.
https://twitter.com/Afterseven/status/796071523601641472
Romney won them 65-35 and 58-41, that is a higher victory margin for Trump there.0 -
And for some light relief on what is going to be a very grim night for us all whatever the outcome:Jonathan said:
https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=gcXM6tfe9YM
Best of luck on the betting positions, because that's the only way anyone will be smiling tomorrow.
Alas I have marking to do.0 -
It's rigged.Pulpstar said:Dems are 26k ahead in Hillsborough, Bill Mitchell forgot to include the tick box to include postals.
0 -
Looks like it's rigged.JackW said:**** HEALTH WARNING ****
Votecastr numbers :
CO - C 47 .. T 42
FL - C 49 .. T 45
IA - C 45 .. T 46
NV - C 47 .. T 44
OH - C 46 .. T 45
PA - C 48 .. T 44
WI - C 49 .. T 43
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html
0 -
"Farage would accept job from Trump if he wins US election":
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/730178/Nigel-Farage-job-European-Union-ambassador-Donald-Trump-US-election-20160 -
nunu said:
Omg comedy gold.
Watch
NVElection WATCH: Court hearing - Trump suing Clark County registrar over early voting hours being extended #8NN
http://bit.ly/2bcID8U
It's rigged I tell you.
0 -
He's quite crazy.SouthamObserver said:
https://twitter.com/kincannon_show/status/796071808281755649AndyJS said:
How reliable is he?Pulpstar said:The Kincannon Show @kincannon_show 37m37 minutes ago
Trump should be declared the victor by about 9:45 tonight, based on the exit poll data I have.
Blimey0 -
Ha, ha :-DMonikerDiCanio said:
It's a mercy that you'll never know what occurred in those five lost hours.SouthamObserver said:
Shorts and T-shirt.MonikerDiCanio said:
You mention horrific mosquito bites. When you came to in the middle of the forest were you still clothed ?SouthamObserver said:
My most dangerous drinking session - and my worst ever hangover - involved a bottle of absinthe in Sweden. One minute I was drinking shots of it around a camp fire, the next it was five hours later and I was waking up alone in the middle of a forest with no idea where I was. Took me until daylight to find my way home and I was ill for two days. The mosquito bites were horrific.MarqueeMark said:
Avoid Romanian brandy. Bought some when I was over there, out of curiosity. Once opened and sampled, we ended up with guys brawling on the lawn!SouthamObserver said:
Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.Sean_F said:
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.
0 -
And out himself as a traitor to all the Brexiteers. Thanks Nige.AndyJS said:"Farage would accept job from Trump if he wins US election":
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/730178/Nigel-Farage-job-European-Union-ambassador-Donald-Trump-US-election-20160 -
It's a first effort; no doubt it will be better in four years' time ?JackW said:
Their model will be analysed to within an inch of a hanging chad after the election come what may.nunu said:
Although its a bit rubbish model that is exactly what the polls were showing for most of the race.JackW said:
What don't you understand by "HEALTH WARNING" in capital letters ?!?!?Speedy said:
You are still peddling the Votecastr thing ?JackW said:**** HEALTH WARNING ****
Votecastr numbers :
CO - C 47 .. T 42
FL - C 49 .. T 45
IA - C 45 .. T 46
NV - C 47 .. T 44
OH - C 46 .. T 45
PA - C 48 .. T 44
WI - C 49 .. T 43
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html
Tsk ....
My attitude is that I link to to the information and allow PBers to make their own mind up. After all I posted the LA Times tracker and Rasmuusen too .....
0 -
good points, but I think you are underestimating the state of panic and anxiety that people feel now: the status quo isn't delivering for them, and there are no options to change course. take back control etc.MyBurningEars said:
Brexit was a one-off vote - a chance in a lifetime affair. If I knew there'd be Euroref 3 in five years' time, I might have voted were a part of it, and left with only one palatable option. I don't know how many other Leave voters applied my logic, but the way turn-out was high among groups with poor historical voting records suggests the one-off nature of the event was important. (I accept that "every vote matters" when it's not FPTP, which also got some backsides off seats.)nielh said:This feels very brexitty.
Trump's anti-elitist "power to the little people" shtick channels Andrew Jackson in many ways (and incidentally his 1828 election was so scandal-ridden and rumbustious that it was believed to have caused the death of the would-be First Lady Rachel Jackson before the inauguration) but as a vehicles for the overlooked outsider go, Trump would be an ironic choice. Many regular conservative voters won't rally around him, if they manage to hold their nose to vote for him at all. HRC may be uninspiring, but is this really the little guys' last chance to stick one up to The Establishment?
It doesn't seem to me that a Clinton win will seal in the present order of things much more than, say, Obama 2012 did. Contrast Brexit, where any non-eurofederalist had to be concerned that a Remain vote could lock Britain in to a trajectory for political union for two generations, and that a campaign based on trade and the economy and only-vile-racists-could-possibly-want-to-vote-for-any-form-of-controls-on-immigration (and you're not a horrible racist now, are you?) would be used as a pretext, decades hence, of a "democratic mandate" for deeper integration. After years evading popular mood on this point, Britain's political class gave its people one chance to have their say. What do you do when you've got one shot? You hit'em where it hurts, while you still can. This may have been an extraordinary election, but four years away the US will have another. The hubbub starts in a mere 2.5 years. Republicans are understandably going big on the Supreme Court nominations, but Clinton can't realistically fix the destiny of the entire USA for the next 30 years. She's not big enough. Most likely the office of the presidency isn't big enough. As such, I doubt HRC is scary and totemic enough to bring out those once-in-a-generation voters Trump needs.0 -
Erm no. Since the UK would still be outside Schengen it would be no different to the way it us now. Anyone who has travelled through any European airport from the UK knows there is little additional benefit from holding an EU passport when entering the Schengen zone.FF43 said:
The no cherry picking rule applies to national negotiations. The Associate EU passport holders are dual nationals and can sail through the EEA channels while diehard Bexiteers with British passports are stuck in the Other Aliens channel sorting out their visas. It's no different, say, from dual UK and French nationality. It's a cunning plan from the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, that's very generous of them. I'm not sure how it squares with their stated principle that we can't cherry-pick the benefits of the EU, though.Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship
Based on the discussion FPT, it's PB Leavers who are keenest on getting EU passports. Accusations of hypocrisy are of course unwarranted.0 -
Suddenly, he supports the right of unskilled people to move to richer countries for employment...AndyJS said:"Farage would accept job from Trump if he wins US election":
http://www.express.co.uk/news/politics/730178/Nigel-Farage-job-European-Union-ambassador-Donald-Trump-US-election-20160 -
You sound like a Trump kinda guy......SouthamObserver said:
My most dangerous drinking session - and my worst ever hangover - involved a bottle of absinthe in Sweden. One minute I was drinking shots of it around a camp fire, the next it was five hours later and I was waking up alone in the middle of a forest with no idea where I was. Took me until daylight to find my way home and I was ill for two days. The mosquito bites were horrific.MarqueeMark said:
Avoid Romanian brandy. Bought some when I was over there, out of curiosity. Once opened and sampled, we ended up with guys brawling on the lawn!SouthamObserver said:
Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.Sean_F said:
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.0 -
You are @SeanT and I claim my fiver. Did you think your friend was dead as well?SouthamObserver said:
My most dangerous drinking session - and my worst ever hangover - involved a bottle of absinthe in Sweden. One minute I was drinking shots of it around a camp fire, the next it was five hours later and I was waking up alone in the middle of a forest with no idea where I was. Took me until daylight to find my way home and I was ill for two days. The mosquito bites were horrific.MarqueeMark said:
Avoid Romanian brandy. Bought some when I was over there, out of curiosity. Once opened and sampled, we ended up with guys brawling on the lawn!SouthamObserver said:
Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.Sean_F said:
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.SouthamObserver said:
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.tyson said:
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.Alanbrooke said:
ooh I love grappa,tyson said:
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)Mortimer said:
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.Richard_Nabavi said:Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.0 -
There's a big additional benefit between having an EU/EEA passport and, say, a Russian passport.Richard_Tyndall said:
Erm no. Since the UK would still be outside Schengen it would be no different to the way it us now. Anyone who has travelled through any European airport from the UK knows there is little additional benefit from holding an EU passport when entering the Schengen zone.FF43 said:
The no cherry picking rule applies to national negotiations. The Associate EU passport holders are dual nationals and can sail through the EEA channels while diehard Bexiteers with British passports are stuck in the Other Aliens channel sorting out their visas. It's no different, say, from dual UK and French nationality. It's a cunning plan from the EU.Richard_Nabavi said:
Well, that's very generous of them. I'm not sure how it squares with their stated principle that we can't cherry-pick the benefits of the EU, though.Jonathan said:http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/brexit-eu-citizenship-freedom-of-movement-passport-how-to-keep-parliament-live-move-abroad-a7405196.html
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship
Based on the discussion FPT, it's PB Leavers who are keenest on getting EU passports. Accusations of hypocrisy are of course unwarranted.0 -
Morning Consult/Politico exit poll of early and election day voters (18 Oct - 8 Nov) Sample 9,704 :
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/early-exit-poll-clinton-ground-game-230943?lo=ut_a1
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The theme of Trump outperforming Romney and Clinton underperforming Obama is likely to dominate proceedings.Speedy said:We got something from Naples, FL.
In the primaries it gave us a good idea for who won Florida.
https://twitter.com/Afterseven/status/796071523601641472
Romney won them 65-35 and 58-41, that is a higher victory margin for Trump there.0 -
To be honest, even I have lost track of whether I'm being serious in this election....nunu said:
LOL. (Are you being serious, I can't tell with thus election anymore).MarqueeMark said:0 -
Another votecastr fuckup:
"Update: 3:06 p.m.: The state maps previously displayed on this page represented only Election Day data but not early vote estimates. They have been removed and will be reposted when they are updated."
Like I said before, great idea, terrible presentation.0 -
This is worrying for Clinton:JackW said:Morning Consult/Politico exit poll of early and election day voters (18 Oct - 8 Nov) Sample 9,704 :
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/early-exit-poll-clinton-ground-game-230943?lo=ut_a1
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A very Trumpy exit poll, voters are angry and want a strong leader, it joins the exit poll from Naples Florida on the scales for Trump.JackW said:Morning Consult/Politico exit poll of early and election day voters (18 Oct - 8 Nov) Sample 9,704 :
http://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/early-exit-poll-clinton-ground-game-230943?lo=ut_a1
The only thing that goes for Hillary so far is the Votecastr thing.0
