I have put £150 on Trump@10/3 from Ladbrokes. I have absolutely no idea whether he is going to win or not (and at this point I really don't care, to be honest) but I assume USD will go south if he wins and (as you know) I've been getting into dollars recently, so this minimises my losses. Min-min: an essentially cautious approach but that's life.
Incidentally, I got a roar of approval from the counter: I forgot that Ladbroke's livery was red...
Let me guess, the result will be 'too close to call' until well beyond the point where an eight year old child can see that Clinton has the win in the bag?
Just a shame the betting and financial markets are rather less likely to be all tuned in to the BBC than they were on that night back in June....
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
Which one?
The limoncello. I've never heard of Fuoco di Sicilia, is it legal ?
I am guessing that this will be a red coloured Italian liqueur created by infusing herbs and rose petals in strong alcohol, likely to be at least 50 per cent or possibly stronger. I would save that for if Trump wins, if I were you. At least then its strength and likely appalling taste will help you quickly take your mind off earthly things.
Probably inseparable from Mr Muscle in a blind tasting. Best kept for unloved relatives.
You're bound to have tasted it on visits to your family.
If we do get a high turnout tonight (and I remain to be convinced) then we will have conclusive proof that fear is a greater motivator than hope. The number of people who are voting in this election for positive reasons must be small indeed. Fear rules.
The Prince is one of the funniest books I have read. There are searing insights into human psychology on every page overlain with a profound cynicism based on bitter experience.
It's slightly disturbing that lots of people don't realise the prince is a searing satire/attack.
key points: - Trump does as well in rust belt as predicted, high WWC turnout
- Low AA turnout in the south means Clinton fails to flip the states there, but does get AZ as Latino turnout will be high.
- 'tactical voting' by Dems in Utah compiles with Mormon disgust for trump, and McMullin pulls through.
- Florida just goes to Trump. Latino population balanced out by old white population, plus the fact that latinos in florida are more cuban/conservative generally.
I have put £150 on Trump@10/3 from Ladbrokes. I have absolutely no idea whether he is going to win or not (and at this point I really don't care, to be honest) but I assume USD will go south if he wins and (as you know) I've been getting into dollars recently, so this minimises my losses. Min-min: an essentially cautious approach but that's life.
Incidentally, I got a roar of approval from the counter: I forgot that Ladbroke's livery was red...
(though I might open a bottle to drown my sorrows tomorrow if Trump wins)
Have you gone "dry" Josias?
Medically dry. Mind, it could be worse: you could be discussing Scotch.
Maybe you'll be able to give yourself a wee dram on NYE?
Hope your treatment is progressing OK?
Yeah, fine thanks. As for a wee dram: I'll just stop the medication for Christmas.
Ermm, for what sort of period over Christmas? Just thinking that I am going to have to be going up to see my God-Daughter in Cambridge at that sort of period and it would be good to buy you a proper drink. Lunchtime in the Baron of Beef perhaps?
If we do get a high turnout tonight (and I remain to be convinced) then we will have conclusive proof that fear is a greater motivator than hope. The number of people who are voting in this election for positive reasons must be small indeed. Fear rules.
The Prince is one of the funniest books I have read. There are searing insights into human psychology on every page overlain with a profound cynicism based on bitter experience.
I bought a copy about ten years ago but it's been gathering dust on my shelf ever since.
Let me guess, the result will be 'too close to call' until well beyond the point where an eight year old child can see that Clinton has the win in the bag?
Just a shame the betting and financial markets are rather less likely to be all tuned in to the BBC than they were on that night back in June....
I think in 2008, Dimbleby had to ask one of the BBC panel whether Obama had in fact "won" because California was "likely" to vote for him. They have been utterly useless on election nights for several years now.
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
You have to drink it with a view of the Tyrrhenian Sea and never but ever bring a bottle home. If you can see the sea and provided it is sunny and warm at that moment, Limoncello tastes like the nectar from the gods (particularly if you are female at the time).
At all other times and in all other locations it tastes like toilet cleaner.
I think I fail on all those criteria. However, I can't conceive how it could ever taste nice.
I've sipped it overlooking Lake Como. That has to count, and it still tastes rank.
There is one called mandorino (or something like that) made of oranges that can be even more nectar-like on the spot, but sadly also turns to toilet cleaner if it is taken through an X-ray machine.
If we do get a high turnout tonight (and I remain to be convinced) then we will have conclusive proof that fear is a greater motivator than hope. The number of people who are voting in this election for positive reasons must be small indeed. Fear rules.
The Prince is one of the funniest books I have read. There are searing insights into human psychology on every page overlain with a profound cynicism based on bitter experience.
I bought a copy about ten years ago but it's been gathering dust on my shelf ever since.
Dig it out, you can probably get through it before the first results arrive.
Let me guess, the result will be 'too close to call' until well beyond the point where an eight year old child can see that Clinton has the win in the bag?
Just a shame the betting and financial markets are rather less likely to be all tuned in to the BBC than they were on that night back in June....
I think in 2008, Dimbleby had to ask one of the BBC panel whether Obama had in fact "won" because California was "likely" to vote for him. They have been utterly useless on election nights for several years now.
key points: - Trump does as well in rust belt as predicted, high WWC turnout
- Low AA turnout in the south means Clinton fails to flip the states there, but does get AZ as Latino turnout will be high.
- 'tactical voting' by Dems in Utah compiles with Mormon disgust for trump, and McMullin pulls through.
- Florida just goes to Trump. Latino population balanced out by old white population, plus the fact that latinos in florida are more cuban/conservative generally.
key points: - Trump does as well in rust belt as predicted, high WWC turnout
- Low AA turnout in the south means Clinton fails to flip the states there, but does get AZ as Latino turnout will be high.
- 'tactical voting' by Dems in Utah compiles with Mormon disgust for trump, and McMullin pulls through.
- Florida just goes to Trump. Latino population balanced out by old white population, plus the fact that latinos in florida are more cuban/conservative generally.
Thoughts on plausibility?
Not really, the early vote data shows no drop off of AA turnout, and he ain't getting Pennsylvania with Philadelphia turnout high.
(though I might open a bottle to drown my sorrows tomorrow if Trump wins)
Have you gone "dry" Josias?
Medically dry. Mind, it could be worse: you could be discussing Scotch.
Maybe you'll be able to give yourself a wee dram on NYE?
Hope your treatment is progressing OK?
Yeah, fine thanks. As for a wee dram: I'll just stop the medication for Christmas.
Ermm, for what sort of period over Christmas? Just thinking that I am going to have to be going up to see my God-Daughter in Cambridge at that sort of period and it would be good to buy you a proper drink. Lunchtime in the Baron of Beef perhaps?
That might be very nice. Going to spend Chrissy up in Derbyshire, but Mrs J might have to work between Chrissy and New Year, so we migth be down here then.I'll keep you posted.
The analysis from votecastr.....is that the early returns showed bigly Hillary leads. But this was mainly due to the fact that the Democrat staff were a bunch of dope smoking, target driven lazy arses who basically got all those voters with Hillary tattooed on their foreheads to the early polls. On voting day, the Trumpers are coming out.
Another view...is that their model is shit...and that someone is looking at Nate's 538 and trying to tack their made up vote shares onto his....
And basically they are as clueless as anyone else..... and......
I have put £150 on Trump@10/3 from Ladbrokes. I have absolutely no idea whether he is going to win or not (and at this point I really don't care, to be honest) but I assume USD will go south if he wins and (as you know) I've been getting into dollars recently, so this minimises my losses. Min-min: an essentially cautious approach but that's life.
Incidentally, I got a roar of approval from the counter: I forgot that Ladbroke's livery was red...
Why not take 9-2 at Betfair ?
I work away from home and stay in digs on weekdays. I don't have secure nor reliable internet access. Given that and a rather poo-making experience involving the 2012 French Presidential, I am not comfortable with online betting. It's a bit of a disability and one I hope to overcome by 2020, but until then offline betting suffices.
So where to watch? BBC haven't a clue, CNN will spin out their exit poll with BREAKING NEWS for hours, Fox, yeah maybe not, the dumb jerks banging on about Bernie, again I think not....
key points: - Trump does as well in rust belt as predicted, high WWC turnout
- Low AA turnout in the south means Clinton fails to flip the states there, but does get AZ as Latino turnout will be high.
- 'tactical voting' by Dems in Utah compiles with Mormon disgust for trump, and McMullin pulls through.
- Florida just goes to Trump. Latino population balanced out by old white population, plus the fact that latinos in florida are more cuban/conservative generally.
key points: - Trump does as well in rust belt as predicted, high WWC turnout
- Low AA turnout in the south means Clinton fails to flip the states there, but does get AZ as Latino turnout will be high.
- 'tactical voting' by Dems in Utah compiles with Mormon disgust for trump, and McMullin pulls through.
- Florida just goes to Trump. Latino population balanced out by old white population, plus the fact that latinos in florida are more cuban/conservative generally.
Thoughts on plausibility?
Not really, the early vote data shows no drop off of AA turnout, and he ain't getting Pennsylvania with Philadelphia turnout high.
Yes the very high turnouts reported in Philly block off a lot of routes for him, it would seem.
The analysis from votecastr.....is that the early returns showed bigly Hillary leads. But this was mainly due to the fact that the Democrat staff were a bunch of dope smoking, target driven lazy arses who basically got all those voters with Hillary tattooed on their foreheads to the early polls. On voting day, the Trumpers are coming out.
Another view...is that their model is shit...and that someone is looking at Nate's 538 and trying to tack their made up vote shares onto his....
And basically they are as clueless as anyone else..... and......
Let me guess, the result will be 'too close to call' until well beyond the point where an eight year old child can see that Clinton has the win in the bag?
Just a shame the betting and financial markets are rather less likely to be all tuned in to the BBC than they were on that night back in June....
I think in 2008, Dimbleby had to ask one of the BBC panel whether Obama had in fact "won" because California was "likely" to vote for him. They have been utterly useless on election nights for several years now.
LOL
Since that very moment @Pulpstar I turned over, and have never come back.
Good spot. That poll is in Collier and parts of Lee - comparing VC with 2012, Lee looks about right, but Collier was +35 in 2012.
Maybe they lack data in particular counties? Hard to guess, they're not providing info at that level. Or maybe another screwup - their Florida numbers are the furthest away from 538 polls, after all......
Good spot. That poll is in Collier and parts of Lee - comparing VC with 2012, Lee looks about right, but Collier was +35 in 2012.
Maybe they lack data in particular counties? Hard to guess, they're not providing info at that level. Or maybe another screwup - their Florida numbers are the furthest away from 538 polls, after all......
I don't know how many people they got, 100 perhaps ?
The analysis from votecastr.....is that the early returns showed bigly Hillary leads. But this was mainly due to the fact that the Democrat staff were a bunch of dope smoking, target driven lazy arses who basically got all those voters with Hillary tattooed on their foreheads to the early polls. On voting day, the Trumpers are coming out.
Another view...is that their model is shit...and that someone is looking at Nate's 538 and trying to tack their made up vote shares onto his....
And basically they are as clueless as anyone else..... and......
like laugh. added: Listening to Beethoven piano late sonatas here. They seem aggressive enough.
So where to watch? BBC haven't a clue, CNN will spin out their exit poll with BREAKING NEWS for hours, Fox, yeah maybe not, the dumb jerks banging on about Bernie, again I think not....
So where to watch? BBC haven't a clue, CNN will spin out their exit poll with BREAKING NEWS for hours, Fox, yeah maybe not, the dumb jerks banging on about Bernie, again I think not....
David Dimbleby always used to present the BBC's coverage but I think he's not doing it this year.
So where to watch? BBC haven't a clue, CNN will spin out their exit poll with BREAKING NEWS for hours, Fox, yeah maybe not, the dumb jerks banging on about Bernie, again I think not....
David Dimbleby always used to present the BBC's coverage but I think he's not doing it this year.
Andrew Neil is always value and you can't say he knows nothing about the US
So where to watch? BBC haven't a clue, CNN will spin out their exit poll with BREAKING NEWS for hours, Fox, yeah maybe not, the dumb jerks banging on about Bernie, again I think not....
David Dimbleby always used to present the BBC's coverage but I think he's not doing it this year.
So where to watch? BBC haven't a clue, CNN will spin out their exit poll with BREAKING NEWS for hours, Fox, yeah maybe not, the dumb jerks banging on about Bernie, again I think not....
David Dimbleby always used to present the BBC's coverage but I think he's not doing it this year.
So where to watch? BBC haven't a clue, CNN will spin out their exit poll with BREAKING NEWS for hours, Fox, yeah maybe not, the dumb jerks banging on about Bernie, again I think not....
David Dimbleby always used to present the BBC's coverage but I think he's not doing it this year.
So where to watch? BBC haven't a clue, CNN will spin out their exit poll with BREAKING NEWS for hours, Fox, yeah maybe not, the dumb jerks banging on about Bernie, again I think not....
David Dimbleby always used to present the BBC's coverage but I think he's not doing it this year.
Brillo is presenting from New York.
I'd to see Neil interview Trump . Brillo and shredded wheat. I'm guessing it's through the Caledonian genes.n
Bill MitchellVerified account @mitchellvii Based upon what I am seeing from Tampa and numbers have remained stead all day, Hillary will lose Florida and badly.
Bill MitchellVerified account @mitchellvii Based upon what I am seeing from Tampa and numbers have remained stead all day, Hillary will lose Florida and badly.
Bill MitchellVerified account @mitchellvii Based upon what I am seeing from Tampa and numbers have remained stead all day, Hillary will lose Florida and badly.
Lets see. 4:30pm Florida time. Is it after work yet? No? Let's wait a bit.
Bill MitchellVerified account @mitchellvii Based upon what I am seeing from Tampa and numbers have remained stead all day, Hillary will lose Florida and badly.
Comments
But you never know
#ge2015
#brexit
Incidentally, I got a roar of approval from the counter: I forgot that Ladbroke's livery was red...
Just a shame the betting and financial markets are rather less likely to be all tuned in to the BBC than they were on that night back in June....
http://www.270towin.com/maps/7n66y
key points:
- Trump does as well in rust belt as predicted, high WWC turnout
- Low AA turnout in the south means Clinton fails to flip the states there, but does get AZ as Latino turnout will be high.
- 'tactical voting' by Dems in Utah compiles with Mormon disgust for trump, and McMullin pulls through.
- Florida just goes to Trump. Latino population balanced out by old white population, plus the fact that latinos in florida are more cuban/conservative generally.
Thoughts on plausibility?
http://www.naplesnews.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/08/2016-general-election-ndn-unofficial-exit-poll-results-collier-lee/93195286/
And to Remainers too!
A fitting tribute to Obama's legacy.
The KKK haven't gone away you know.
https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/1/19/Train_wreck_at_Montparnasse_1895.jpg
Gonna make a peppermint tea. That'll work ;-/
Another view...is that their model is shit...and that someone is looking at Nate's 538 and trying to tack their made up vote shares onto his....
And basically they are as clueless as anyone else..... and......
I'm not saying I trust the numbers, but it's still nothing like what would be expected if Trump was going to paint the mid-West red.
https://twitter.com/iD4RO/status/796085716317011968
Maybe they lack data in particular counties? Hard to guess, they're not providing info at that level. Or maybe another screwup - their Florida numbers are the furthest away from 538 polls, after all......
My little effort:
http://www.270towin.com/maps/VNjpk
I hope I am right with Alaska but not too critical.
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/a6/c7/f8/a6c7f8ee2e396583838f9815def589c5.jpg
(ISTR there was a similar one somewhere in Yorkshire (Bradford?), but am having trouble finding the piccie.
Though this one takes some explaining ...
https://s-media-cache-ak0.pinimg.com/736x/73/6e/59/736e5981dde3db3d67d59b52e63b74e9.jpg
I just get a blank grey screen. The rest of the site is working perfectly.
added: Listening to Beethoven piano late sonatas here. They seem aggressive enough.
Fortunately lecturing tommorow so not too taxing!
Trump gain Ohio!
https://twitter.com/ForecasterEnten/status/796094947057397762
I think even if Clinton wins, I have a hunch that there will be a couple of surprises. I hope your Alaska is one....
First exit polls in 44 minutes according to cnn. #ElectionDay
http://www.usatoday.com/story/news/politics/elections/2016/11/08/hillary-clinton-overwhelmingly-wins-guam/93471844/
@mitchellvii
Based upon what I am seeing from Tampa and numbers have remained stead all day, Hillary will lose Florida and badly.