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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six hours or so before we start to get an idea

SystemSystem Posts: 12,144
edited November 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Six hours or so before we start to get an idea

Not the best start to #Election2016 day for Donald Trump – being roundly booed on his way to vote (via @AnupKaphle) pic.twitter.com/g8YlsTx0lR

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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,440
    That Luntz tweet scares me.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That Luntz tweet scares me.

    Maybe, though he doesn't say if it's black or white...
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    edited November 2016
    Third like Labour
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That Luntz tweet scares me.

    Cheating bastard ;)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    edited November 2016
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/796034957038776321

    Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.
    He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pADHLsECWxY
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That Luntz tweet scares me.

    A Luntz tweet has no evidentiary value, one way or the other.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 70,790
    Meanwhile, schadenfreude ?
    http://www.nj.com/politics/index.ssf/2016/11/in_darkness_and_in_secret_christie_votes_for_trump.html
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    http://www.votepinellas.com/Election-Results/2016-Election-Results/Unofficial-Voter-Turnout-2016-General-Election

    Pinellas stats
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,663
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That Luntz tweet scares me.

    Fiji, here I come!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    FPT:
    tyson said:

    IanB2 said:

    Well global stock markets have perked up this last hour or two; people somewhere are expecting some good news.

    With Brexit...I was a convinced that there was some private polling going on that was influencing the markets...then as the night unfolded it became clear that people were clueless/ there is no magic polling/

    So the stock markets are reacting because they hope Clinton is going to win/ a kind of reverse Plato
    The trick, which is more difficult than it sounds, is to abandon ship quickly if events aren't running as you expect. At 10pm on June 23rd I had a lot of money on Remain, which was at that point in the blue what with Boris, Farage and others conceding all over the place. A couple of hours later I had ditched the lot - in no small part due to the shared wisdom of PB - and ended the night several £K better off.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    Alistair said:

    http://www.votepinellas.com/Election-Results/2016-Election-Results/Unofficial-Voter-Turnout-2016-General-Election

    Pinellas stats

    ....and a nice image of a Roseate Spoonbill amongst the images on the scrolling header....
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    Looks like Donald is checking out which way Milania is voting...

    All not well in Chez Trump?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    Alistair said:

    http://www.votepinellas.com/Election-Results/2016-Election-Results/Unofficial-Voter-Turnout-2016-General-Election

    Pinellas stats

    The election day Republican count is significantly higher.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Alistair said:

    http://www.votepinellas.com/Election-Results/2016-Election-Results/Unofficial-Voter-Turnout-2016-General-Election

    Pinellas stats

    Dem Pinellas 52.08% 239,104
    GOP 46.45% 213,258
    Other 1.48% 6,750

    Total - 459,112
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That Luntz tweet scares me.

    Go get some sleep!!!!!!!
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/796034957038776321

    Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.
    He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=pADHLsECWxY
    That is a very aged image of Michael Moore, who lost a ton of weight and is now relatively sveldt.

    Relatively.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That Luntz tweet scares me.

    Any back up? I thought we were supposed to be being told important shit like this - for the first time ever....
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,872
    Some light relief. The things you have to do to tempt a few Indian millionaires to Blighty.

    https://twitter.com/PWMartin_Leith/status/795982814042800129
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2016
    619 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    That Luntz tweet scares me.

    Maybe, though he doesn't say if it's black or white...
    He wouldn't be saying it's good for Trump if he was talking about AAs...

    This is what I've been saying, the question is how YUUUGE is the Trump Train.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,454
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Some light relief. The things you have to do to tempt a few Indian millionaires to Blighty.

    https://twitter.com/PWMartin_Leith/status/795982814042800129

    Is that before or after the monkey-brain eating scene?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    That's what I'm thinking too...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    I don't think he will, but if Trump pulls this off... my word the carnage will be a site to behold :o
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    An oddly exciting night.

    Who's good to follow on twitter for upto date election info/commentary? Just started following Frank Luntz
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    I don't think he will, but if Trump pulls this off... my word the carnage will be a site to behold :o
    Twitter will hit peak twitter.
  • AndrewAndrew Posts: 2,900
    Razedabode said:

    An oddly exciting night.

    Who's good to follow on twitter for upto date election info/commentary? Just started following Frank Luntz

    I was hoping someone had set up a twitter list of useful commentators/sources, but quick hunt and couldn't find one.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    Razedabode said:

    An oddly exciting night.

    Who's good to follow on twitter for up to date election info/commentary?

    Dan Hodges?

  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    I don't think he will, but if Trump pulls this off... my word the carnage will be a site to behold :o
    Twitter will hit peak twitter.
    I couldn't have put it better myself! :D
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    On the other hand:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV

    Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
  • ChrisChris Posts: 11,739
    edited November 2016
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Some light relief. The things you have to do to tempt a few Indian millionaires to Blighty.

    https://twitter.com/PWMartin_Leith/status/795982814042800129

    I'm not sure who looks more ridiculous in that photo - Boris or Theresa.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    edited November 2016
    rottenborough said:

    On the other hand:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV

    Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump

    I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    rottenborough said:

    On the other hand:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV

    Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump

    If he sweeps the rust belt he doesn't need NV and FL.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    This isn't over yet, could be a very long night :o
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Andrew said:

    Razedabode said:

    An oddly exciting night.

    Who's good to follow on twitter for upto date election info/commentary? Just started following Frank Luntz

    I was hoping someone had set up a twitter list of useful commentators/sources, but quick hunt and couldn't find one.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/electproject?lang=en-gb

    https://mobile.twitter.com/steveschale

    https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports

    Will have to wait before it gets more exciting.
  • JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 42,371
    Theuniondivvie said:

    Some light relief. The things you have to do to tempt a few Indian millionaires to Blighty.

    https://twitter.com/PWMartin_Leith/status/795982814042800129

    Has someone lightened her skin? ;)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    I don't think he will, but if Trump pulls this off... my word the carnage will be a site to behold :o
    Twitter will hit peak twitter.
    Did I really type site rather than sight... oh dear.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    I don't think he will, but if Trump pulls this off... my word the carnage will be a site to behold :o
    Twitter will hit peak twitter.
    Has Louise Mensch threatened to come back to the UK if Trump wins?
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    This isn't over yet, could be a very long night :o
    I wouldn't rely on votecastr.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/796034957038776321

    Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.
    He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
    Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.

    HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    Clegg speaks out:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-chickens-are-coming-home-to-roost-now-for-panicking-brexiteers-a3390036.html
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    IanB2 said:

    Clegg speaks out:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-chickens-are-coming-home-to-roost-now-for-panicking-brexiteers-a3390036.html

    Who?
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 545
    Can I request that Speedy is unbanned for the night? W are going to need him.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    williamglenn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    That's what I'm thinking too...
    That Republicans vote early?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    Chukka speaks out (first time for everything):

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-brexit-post-truth-politics-more-in-common-a7404216.html
  • RazedabodeRazedabode Posts: 3,027
    nunu said:

    Andrew said:

    Razedabode said:

    An oddly exciting night.

    Who's good to follow on twitter for upto date election info/commentary? Just started following Frank Luntz

    I was hoping someone had set up a twitter list of useful commentators/sources, but quick hunt and couldn't find one.
    https://mobile.twitter.com/electproject?lang=en-gb

    https://mobile.twitter.com/steveschale

    https://mobile.twitter.com/RalstonReports

    Will have to wait before it gets more exciting.
    Perfect. Twitter is great for nights like tonight - adds to the drama (if there is any - may just end up being as simple as it sounds and a Clinton victory)
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    I don't think he will, but if Trump pulls this off... my word the carnage will be a site to behold :o
    Twitter will hit peak twitter.
    Did I really type site rather than sight... oh dear.
    Yes, the carnage in the Baltics, Middle East, South China Sea...
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Could well end up something like this I reckon.

    #talkingupmyownbook

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/m0k7O
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    gettingbetter said:

    Can I request that Speedy is unbanned for the night? W are going to need him.

    What did he get the ban hammer for?
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    On the other hand:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV

    Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump

    I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
    The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.

    If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    rottenborough said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    I don't think he will, but if Trump pulls this off... my word the carnage will be a site to behold :o
    Twitter will hit peak twitter.
    Did I really type site rather than sight... oh dear.
    Yes, the carnage in the Baltics, Middle East, South China Sea...
    Don't be so dramatic, he won't be President until January :D
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Clegg speaks out:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-chickens-are-coming-home-to-roost-now-for-panicking-brexiteers-a3390036.html

    Who?
    The next Prime Minister.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Any reports of burly men?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    williamglenn said:

    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Clegg speaks out:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-chickens-are-coming-home-to-roost-now-for-panicking-brexiteers-a3390036.html

    Who?
    The next Prime Minister.
    I'll have what you're having.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    GIN1138 said:

    IanB2 said:

    Clegg speaks out:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-chickens-are-coming-home-to-roost-now-for-panicking-brexiteers-a3390036.html

    Who?
    A wave of passionate outpouring that swept the country second only to Beatlemania...how could you possibly forget?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    Jobabob said:

    Could well end up something like this I reckon.

    #talkingupmyownbook

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/m0k7O

    AZ blue but NV red?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    I don't think he will, but if Trump pulls this off... my word the carnage will be a site to behold :o
    Twitter will hit peak twitter.
    Did I really type site rather than sight... oh dear.
    Yes, the carnage in the Baltics, Middle East, South China Sea...
    Don't be so dramatic, he won't be President until January :D
    That gives me enough time to build the nuclear shelter. I'll have to use my winnings to fund it. Oh no, wait I'm on Clinton...
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Bit of light relief....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3916416/BBC-slammed-disgraceful-decision-pin-poppy-Cookie-Monster.html

    Cookie Monster says....F##k You Tw@tter....
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    619 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    This isn't over yet, could be a very long night :o
    I wouldn't rely on votecastr.
    Nope. I think we all agree that it's mostly rubbish right now. Maybe it will get better later, but it's probably of more use later as an aftercast - to compare what it was doing now to the actual outcome, in time for the next election.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    Alistair said:

    williamglenn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    That's what I'm thinking too...
    That Republicans vote early?
    Cos the Dems are all in work.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    On the other hand:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV

    Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump

    I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
    The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.

    If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
    I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Bit of light relief....

    http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3916416/BBC-slammed-disgraceful-decision-pin-poppy-Cookie-Monster.html

    Cookie Monster says....F##k You Tw@tter....

    Turn the outrage dial to 11!
  • MrsBMrsB Posts: 574
    Surely the only place you need tonight is pb? What's with this twitter stuff?

  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 10,727
    IanB2 said:

    Chukka speaks out (first time for everything):

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-brexit-post-truth-politics-more-in-common-a7404216.html

    Last time too if the Indy wants their circulation to exist. That's a poor piece.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    edited November 2016
    Jobabob said:

    Could well end up something like this I reckon.

    #talkingupmyownbook

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/m0k7O

    That's Clinton wins by Florida, but I doubt she'll take that state.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    rottenborough said:

    Alistair said:

    williamglenn said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    That's what I'm thinking too...
    That Republicans vote early?
    Cos the Dems are all in work.
    Doesn't really go with the white working class meme.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    IanB2 said:

    Clegg speaks out:

    http://www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/nick-clegg-chickens-are-coming-home-to-roost-now-for-panicking-brexiteers-a3390036.html

    Clinton 52%
    Trump 48%

    :innocent:
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    MrsB said:

    Surely the only place you need tonight is pb? What's with this twitter stuff?

    Agreed. Although we do aggregate a lot of tweets on here (some more useful than others)
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    IanB2 said:

    Chukka speaks out (first time for everything):

    http://www.independent.co.uk/voices/donald-trump-brexit-post-truth-politics-more-in-common-a7404216.html

    Clinton 52%
    Trump 48%

    :innocent:
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    rottenborough said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Pulpstar said:

    If you take the votecastr on Pennsylvania, the Luntz tweet re: Michigan and the Pinellas numbers together......

    I don't think he will, but if Trump pulls this off... my word the carnage will be a site to behold :o
    Twitter will hit peak twitter.
    Did I really type site rather than sight... oh dear.
    Yes, the carnage in the Baltics, Middle East, South China Sea...
    Don't be so dramatic, he won't be President until January :D
    That gives me enough time to build the nuclear shelter. I'll have to use my winnings to fund it. Oh no, wait I'm on Clinton...
    Shrouds have no pockets!
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/796044515840839680
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    RobD said:

    Jobabob said:

    Could well end up something like this I reckon.

    #talkingupmyownbook

    http://www.270towin.com/maps/m0k7O

    AZ blue but NV red?
    A mistake – you catch my drift :)
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    Dromedary said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/796034957038776321

    Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.
    He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
    Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.

    HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
    Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.

    Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
  • 619619 Posts: 1,784
    https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/796044734665887744
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 545
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    On the other hand:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV

    Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump

    I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
    The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.

    If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
    I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
    If it helps we had some distant relatives to stay from Florida of Colombian origin, they were definite Clinton voters, though preferred Sanders.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Sandpit said:

    The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.

    Incorrect. Florida Cuban Hispanics now make up only 30% of that demographic.
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    One thing to remember, plenty of white "working class" voters will be registered Dem.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    edited November 2016
    Sandpit said:

    Dromedary said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/796034957038776321

    Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.
    He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
    Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.

    HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
    Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
    Going off topic but surely if Trump wins we will have to interpret Brexit as being a cri du coeur against the current system in its broadest sense rather than a vote specifically for leaving the EU? Fundamentally it's mass-immigration and the financialisation of the economy that people want to put a stop to. Leaving the EU is not a solution to their problems.
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    Chris said:

    Theuniondivvie said:

    Some light relief. The things you have to do to tempt a few Indian millionaires to Blighty.

    https://twitter.com/PWMartin_Leith/status/795982814042800129

    I'm not sure who looks more ridiculous in that photo - Boris or Theresa.
    Is it the right breast that freemasons have to bare in India?
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    619 said:

    https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/796044734665887744

    How long before Plato cites that as voter fraud? She's not gonna accept it when her hero gets roundly rejected by the people is she?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.

    So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.

    I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).

    More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout.
    Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.

    A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout.
    Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.

    I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,362
    williamglenn said:

    Sandpit said:

    Dromedary said:

    Sandpit said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/796034957038776321

    Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump.
    He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
    Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.

    HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
    Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
    Going off topic but surely if Trump wins we will have to interpret Brexit as being a cri du coeur against the current system in its broadest sense rather than a vote specifically for leaving the EU? Fundamentally it's mass-immigration and the financialisation of the economy that people want to put a stop to. Leaving the EU is not a solution to their problems.
    ROFL

    you'll twist the EUref anyway possible to say we didnt vote for what we voted
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,456
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    On the other hand:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV

    Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump

    I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
    The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.

    If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
    I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
    Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    Welcome back Speedy!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    @Speedy Welcome back :)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Speedy said:

    Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.

    So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.

    I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).

    More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout.
    Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.

    A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout.
    Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.

    I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.

    Just a quick raincheck - what is your explanation for Kentucky
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    619 said:

    https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/796044515840839680

    Eh? It's still about 10 hours until Nevada polls close
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,736
    Welcome back, Mr. Speedy.

    Anyway, I've got to be off. Probably won't be back until tomorrow. Good luck to everyone with their bets.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Sandpit said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    On the other hand:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV

    Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump

    I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
    The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.

    If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
    I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
    Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.
    Minnesota in particular I can't see Trump winning. Seems more small 'l' liberal than the rest of the rustbelt.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    Pulpstar said:

    Sandpit said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    On the other hand:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV

    Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump

    I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
    The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.

    If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
    I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
    Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.
    Minnesota in particular I can't see Trump winning. Seems more small 'l' liberal than the rest of the rustbelt.
    Also has baked in massive turnout so a flip is harder.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    From Terry Pratchett's Going Postal:

    What kind of man would put a known criminal in charge of a major branch of government? Apart from, say, the average voter.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    rcs1000 said:

    619 said:

    https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/796044515840839680

    Eh? It's still about 10 hours until Nevada polls close
    I think it was yesterday, I wouldn't pay too much attention to Trump - he has no idea what is going on tbh.
  • EssexitEssexit Posts: 1,956
    Long day at work. Hopefully I'll have little trouble falling asleep once home, in order to be up at 11pm or so.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    edited November 2016
    Speedy said:

    Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.

    So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.

    I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).

    More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout.
    Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.

    A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout.
    Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.

    I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.

    Congratulations on being released from the PB "sin bin" - I always thought PB banland was like Hotel California and the EU...
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited November 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    619 said:

    https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/796044515840839680

    Eh? It's still about 10 hours until Nevada polls close
    I believe it's related to an early voting day.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    brokenwheel said:

    One thing to remember, plenty of white "working class" voters will be registered Dem.

    Shy Trumpster alert!
  • DromedaryDromedary Posts: 1,194
    gettingbetter said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    rottenborough said:

    On the other hand:

    Frank Luntz ‏@FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY
    Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV

    Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump

    I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
    The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.

    If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
    I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
    If it helps we had some distant relatives to stay from Florida of Colombian origin, they were definite Clinton voters, though preferred Sanders.
    I have a friend in Florida who is of distant Hispanic origin, and who would probably count as native white in Britain but in the US she and her family are categorised as Hispanic. Family is middle class, not particularly well off, but doing okay. She voted for Sanders in the primary and put a clothespeg on her nose to vote for Clinton in the election. The rest of her family are enthusiastic Trump supporters. The view that Hispanics, or even Hispanophone Hispanics who don't have a Cuban background, all back Clinton is wishful thinking.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited November 2016
    Pulpstar said:

    Speedy said:

    Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.

    So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.

    I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).

    More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout.
    Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.

    A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout.
    Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.

    I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.

    Just a quick raincheck - what is your explanation for Kentucky
    Thanks for the welcome everybody.

    I haven't looked at Kentucky, it's not competitive on either the Senate or Presidential level.
    Has something happened there, apart from Trump somehow overperforming Rand Paul ?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    rcs1000 said:

    619 said:

    https://twitter.com/jimsciutto/status/796044515840839680

    Eh? It's still about 10 hours until Nevada polls close
    Last week a polling station had a thousand person line so was open till 10pm+to clear it as "if to you are in line you get to vote".

    Republicans are using it as proof of voter fraud in favour of " those kind " of people.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,517
    Sandpit said:



    Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.

    Betfair Exchange offers both a Winning Party bet and a Next President bet, with the odds on the current candidates being elected slightly longer than their parties - i.e. punters factor in a 1% chance of it ending up with someone else. Very unlikely IMO but it's an exchange so they don't care who's right.
  • gettingbettergettingbetter Posts: 545
    Speedy said:

    Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.

    So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.

    I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).

    More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout.
    Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.

    A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout.
    Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.

    I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.

    gettingbetter said:

    Can I request that Speedy is unbanned for the night? W are going to need him.

    Thanks, much appreciated. Second request, can Clinton have at last 330 ECVs please?
This discussion has been closed.