If we do get a high turnout tonight (and I remain to be convinced) then we will have conclusive proof that fear is a greater motivator than hope. The number of people who are voting in this election for positive reasons must be small indeed. Fear rules.
If we do get a high turnout tonight (and I remain to be convinced) then we will have conclusive proof that fear is a greater motivator than hope. The number of people who are voting in this election for positive reasons must be small indeed. Fear rules.
Preventing the wrong people from holding power is one of the purest motivations for becoming engaged with the political process.
European Parliament considers plan to let individual Brits opt-in to keep their EU citizenship
Someone would have to foot the bill for the entitlements to welfare, healthcare etc. plus, I can't see the eastern European countries agreeing to this, given our attitude towards them.
Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....
ooh I love grappa,
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.
Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.
Avoid Romanian brandy. Bought some when I was over there, out of curiosity. Once opened and sampled, we ended up with guys brawling on the lawn!
My most dangerous drinking session - and my worst ever hangover - involved a bottle of absinthe in Sweden. One minute I was drinking shots of it around a camp fire, the next it was five hours later and I was waking up alone in the middle of a forest with no idea where I was. Took me until daylight to find my way home and I was ill for two days. The mosquito bites were horrific.
Mine was after a successful business trip to Poland. I drank at least 1.5 bottles of vodka fancied a young filly that turned out to be older than my grandmother then found I'd forgot to pick up my passport from the hotel room until I was on a non stop, 4 hour train to Warsaw!
If we do get a high turnout tonight (and I remain to be convinced) then we will have conclusive proof that fear is a greater motivator than hope. The number of people who are voting in this election for positive reasons must be small indeed. Fear rules.
Preventing the wrong people from holding power is one of the purest motivations for becoming engaged with the political process.
Don't agree. It is far purer to be for something than against something else. Saying that Hillary is not as bad as Trump or vice versa is not a positive reason to vote.
538's Harry Enten's view of Votecastr - Cautious but not dismissive :
"We’ve gotten a lot of questions about Slate’s Votecastr. Slate hopes to tell people who is winning at any time by “by combining proprietary, large-sample polls taken prior to Election Day with targeted, real-time tracking of voter turnout on Tuesday.” We here at FiveThirtyEight don’t dismiss the method out of hand, but it is untested. Therefore, we’re not relying on Votecastr in any capacity, though we are interested in seeing how predictive it ends up being."
Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....
ooh I love grappa,
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.
Limoncello tastes like toilet cleaner.
What you doing drinking toilet cleaner....Trump hasn't won (yet)...
538's Harry Enten's view of Votecastr - Cautious but not dismissive :
"We’ve gotten a lot of questions about Slate’s Votecastr. Slate hopes to tell people who is winning at any time by “by combining proprietary, large-sample polls taken prior to Election Day with targeted, real-time tracking of voter turnout on Tuesday.” We here at FiveThirtyEight don’t dismiss the method out of hand, but it is untested. Therefore, we’re not relying on Votecastr in any capacity, though we are interested in seeing how predictive it ends up being."
Now remember, folks: boozing and betting don't mix well. It's one or the other tonight, right?
Really? I can't get through an all nighter without it.
Maybe thats just an Oxford thing....
It's a Hertsmere thing too. :-)
I don't touch booze...the devil's water....I haven't touched a drop since, um, now let me think how long ago....oh yes, three PM this afternoon when I had a very nice grappa to finish off a lovely Italian lunch....
ooh I love grappa,
used to get lots of it in Germany at my favourite italian restaurant
It is seriously moreish...which at 40% and convivial company has led to some brutal hangovers.
In Venice when I went they gave free bottles of Limoncello to diners at the end of their meals. We were never sure how much we were supposed to drink so took no chances and had plenty.
The best post-dinner drink, of course, is the carajillo they serve in Spain - an espresso with a shot of brandy dropped in on top. Absolutely delicious and very, very dangerous.
Spanish brandy is excellent. The Iberian Peninsula really does have the world's best wines, and many of the world's best spirits.
Could not agree more. I love my Spanish reds, but the Portuguese ones from the Alentejo and the Douro are top quality too. And then there's the fino, the brandy, anis from Chinchon ... Just avoid the gin.
Menorcan Gin is pretty good (distillery was set up when it was a UK Naval base back in Nelson's day) I don't think I have seen or tried any other native gin in Spain* or Portugal**.
* I know, I know - many Menrocans do not consider themselves Spanish or their island part of Spain.
** I once drank gin in Portugal, Christmas day 1971 in a bar overlooking the beach at Carcavelos, but it came out of a Gordon's bottle. With hindsight it was suspiciously cheap (IIRC the tonic was four times the price of the gin), but I have never heard of a native Portuguese gin distillery. They do, or at least did, brew up some other fearful spirits though.
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
Votecastr's methodology: decide "whose" voters people are, and count them as they vote. Their early vote totals were different from the official ones. But no worry, because they were "more robust". At least they don't say it was more robust to imagine that Jill Stein was on the ballot in Nevada. Here's what they do say:
"One additional wrinkle in Nevada: VoteCastr made a mistake in its pre-Election Day polling by listing Jill Stein as an option, even though the Green Party candidate is not on the state ballot. The VoteCastr team believes Stein is unlikely to draw enough support to significantly affect their estimates, but the jury is still out on that. Consider that a specific example of how this is a real-time experiment, one that remains untested on this scale."
I feel sorry and embarrassed for those who work for Votecastr and were led to believe it was a serious and innovative project, rather than a crockful of shysterism and hype.
Sporting's spread for Hillary cut by 4 ECVs to 302 - 312. Trump +4 now 225 - 235.
Significant ? Probably not ..... yet.
We cant give Clinton away
Who's "we" if you don't mind me asking?
He is from SPIN.
I've not "backed" anyone yet tonight really, a bit of tinkering on Hillary/Trump (At a tiny profit) - position pretty much a middling one as it was before the night started.
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
538's Harry Enten's view of Votecastr - Cautious but not dismissive :
"We’ve gotten a lot of questions about Slate’s Votecastr. Slate hopes to tell people who is winning at any time by “by combining proprietary, large-sample polls taken prior to Election Day with targeted, real-time tracking of voter turnout on Tuesday.” We here at FiveThirtyEight don’t dismiss the method out of hand, but it is untested. Therefore, we’re not relying on Votecastr in any capacity, though we are interested in seeing how predictive it ends up being."
Well, I suppose one way of looking at it is that even if the model isn't particularly accurate, unless they've made a major error in adding up the numbers it's difficult to see how they could still be putting Clinton 2% ahead in Iowa and 1% ahead in Ohio at the halfway mark, if Trump is going to have the kind of sweeping victory in the mid-West that some have been hoping for/dreading.
I have no idea about that lol. Just want to know whether I can/should confidently take the exit poll at face value...
Until actual returns come in I say +/-3%.
Much larger than that - Dem voters tend to vote later, and I'm not sure how much if any local news reporters would "calibrate" it. Also alot of early votes in.
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
If we do get a high turnout tonight (and I remain to be convinced) then we will have conclusive proof that fear is a greater motivator than hope. The number of people who are voting in this election for positive reasons must be small indeed. Fear rules.
This feels very brexitty. I've not followed the polls, but my gut says trump will win. In the last minute people would be more likely to swich to trump than back a failing status quo, in that sense it is like brexit over again. As much as I detest trump, I'm not sure HRC would do a good job as president, it is impossible task she would be taking on.
Trump will be a hugely powerful president - with both Congress and the Supreme Court on his side. He can do a hell of a lot of harm very easily.
Yep. Trump is an absolute nightmare. He may find himself in a corbyn like position with the rest of GOP, but he can still do a lot of damage, as you say. The historical significance of a trump presidency is difficult to predict, but it will almost certainly involve the dismantling of the international American led rule based international order, with wholly unpredictable consequences. I have no doubt that Putin, China welcome Trump because he signifies the end of that system. He is a fool and an idiot, but not a hypocrite.
I'm in remotest Perigord, dying of foie gras poisoning. Can anyone tell me, in two lines, WTF is going on and who's gonna win? Surely it's Clinton?
Merci.
Everybody thinks it's Clinton (except Ms. Plato) but after Brexit and UK General Election 2015 nobody quite believes it...
Trump could certainly win. From what people are saying it's a harder route for him, but possible.
Looking ahead, it'll be interesting to see if this farce of an election causes the Reps or Dems to rethink things, or whether 2020 will be more of the same (I don't think Clinton will stand for a second term).
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
Was given a magnum of Bulgarian Red, and an accompanying bottle of Rakia today.
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
Which one?
The limoncello. I've never heard of Fuoco di Sicilia, is it legal ?
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
You have to drink it with a view of the Tyrrhenian Sea and never but ever bring a bottle home. If you can see the sea and provided it is sunny and warm at that moment, Limoncello tastes like the nectar from the gods (particularly if you are female at the time).
At all other times and in all other locations it tastes like toilet cleaner.
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
Which one?
The limoncello. I've never heard of Fuoco di Sicilia, is it legal ?
OK, thanks.
Yes, the Fuoco is legit stuff, bought from a shop. Obviously targetted at tourists visiting Etna.
If we do get a high turnout tonight (and I remain to be convinced) then we will have conclusive proof that fear is a greater motivator than hope. The number of people who are voting in this election for positive reasons must be small indeed. Fear rules.
The Prince is one of the funniest books I have read. There are searing insights into human psychology on every page overlain with a profound cynicism based on bitter experience.
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
Stick to a single malt, sound advice for a young man starting out in life. Local spirits can be appalling in strength as well as taste, one has to grow up with them. I have drunk some terrible stuff in my time. The worst, by a short head, was the stuff I got served up by my guides out in the desert in Oman, but politeness decreed I had to drink the muck.
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
You have to drink it with a view of the Tyrrhenian Sea and never but ever bring a bottle home. If you can see the sea and provided it is sunny and warm at that moment, Limoncello tastes like the nectar from the gods (particularly if you are female at the time).
At all other times and in all other locations it tastes like toilet cleaner.
?????? (particularly if you are female at the time). ???????????
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
Which one?
The limoncello. I've never heard of Fuoco di Sicilia, is it legal ?
I am guessing that this will be a red coloured Italian liqueur created by infusing herbs and rose petals in strong alcohol, likely to be at least 50 per cent or possibly stronger. I would save that for if Trump wins, if I were you. At least then its strength and likely appalling taste will help you quickly take your mind off earthly things.
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
You have to drink it with a view of the Tyrrhenian Sea and never but ever bring a bottle home. If you can see the sea and provided it is sunny and warm at that moment, Limoncello tastes like the nectar from the gods (particularly if you are female at the time).
At all other times and in all other locations it tastes like toilet cleaner.
?????? (particularly if you are female at the time). ???????????
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
You have to drink it with a view of the Tyrrhenian Sea and never but ever bring a bottle home. If you can see the sea and provided it is sunny and warm at that moment, Limoncello tastes like the nectar from the gods (particularly if you are female at the time).
At all other times and in all other locations it tastes like toilet cleaner.
?????? (particularly if you are female at the time). ???????????
If we do get a high turnout tonight (and I remain to be convinced) then we will have conclusive proof that fear is a greater motivator than hope. The number of people who are voting in this election for positive reasons must be small indeed. Fear rules.
The Prince is one of the funniest books I have read. There are searing insights into human psychology on every page overlain with a profound cynicism based on bitter experience.
One of my favourites. It's sad how someone knew back then so many immutable truths that we refuse to learn that and thus have to bugger everything up time and again.
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
You have to drink it with a view of the Tyrrhenian Sea and never but ever bring a bottle home. If you can see the sea and provided it is sunny and warm at that moment, Limoncello tastes like the nectar from the gods (particularly if you are female at the time).
At all other times and in all other locations it tastes like toilet cleaner.
I think I fail on all those criteria. However, I can't conceive how it could ever taste nice.
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
Which one?
The limoncello. I've never heard of Fuoco di Sicilia, is it legal ?
I am guessing that this will be a red coloured Italian liqueur created by infusing herbs and rose petals in strong alcohol, likely to be at least 50 per cent or possibly stronger. I would save that for if Trump wins, if I were you. At least then its strength and likely appalling taste will help you quickly take your mind off earthly things.
Probably inseparable from Mr Muscle in a blind tasting. Best kept for unloved relatives.
The power of PB: I've had a small bottle of Limoncello sat in the cupboard for 3 years. On the back of previous posts, I've just opened it and taken a glug. Bloody awful!
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
You have to keep it in the freezer and drink it subzero.
You have to drink it with a view of the Tyrrhenian Sea and never but ever bring a bottle home. If you can see the sea and provided it is sunny and warm at that moment, Limoncello tastes like the nectar from the gods (particularly if you are female at the time).
At all other times and in all other locations it tastes like toilet cleaner.
I think I fail on all those criteria. However, I can't conceive how it could ever taste nice.
I've sipped it overlooking Lake Como. That has to count, and it still tastes rank.
Comments
Significant ? Probably not ..... yet.
"COFFEE HOUSE US ELECTION
A Donald Trump presidency would be better for Britain"
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/2016/11/donald-trump-presidency-better-britain/
"We’ve gotten a lot of questions about Slate’s Votecastr. Slate hopes to tell people who is winning at any time by “by combining proprietary, large-sample polls taken prior to Election Day with targeted, real-time tracking of voter turnout on Tuesday.” We here at FiveThirtyEight don’t dismiss the method out of hand, but it is untested. Therefore, we’re not relying on Votecastr in any capacity, though we are interested in seeing how predictive it ends up being."
What have you gone on?
Perhaps the last man in Britain who will realise what they did actually vote for...
And does anyone think that Trump can win?
https://twitter.com/CaptialBusLoan/status/796018656794836992
* I know, I know - many Menrocans do not consider themselves Spanish or their island part of Spain.
** I once drank gin in Portugal, Christmas day 1971 in a bar overlooking the beach at Carcavelos, but it came out of a Gordon's bottle. With hindsight it was suspiciously cheap (IIRC the tonic was four times the price of the gin), but I have never heard of a native Portuguese gin distillery. They do, or at least did, brew up some other fearful spirits though.
Next up is the bright red, 50% by volume "Fuoco di Sicilia" bought at the same time...
...not quite as bad, but I think I'll stick to Single Malt in future.
"One additional wrinkle in Nevada: VoteCastr made a mistake in its pre-Election Day polling by listing Jill Stein as an option, even though the Green Party candidate is not on the state ballot. The VoteCastr team believes Stein is unlikely to draw enough support to significantly affect their estimates, but the jury is still out on that. Consider that a specific example of how this is a real-time experiment, one that remains untested on this scale."
I feel sorry and embarrassed for those who work for Votecastr and were led to believe it was a serious and innovative project, rather than a crockful of shysterism and hype.
I've not "backed" anyone yet tonight really, a bit of tinkering on Hillary/Trump (At a tiny profit) - position pretty much a middling one as it was before the night started.
Thanks.
(though I might open a bottle to drown my sorrows tomorrow if Trump wins)
But in 2008 Bush had a comfortable lead in the national votes...it would have been a travesty for him to lose that one on the basis of Ohio.
Both times Rove had to deliver the bad news to the familiglia Bush
The historical significance of a trump presidency is difficult to predict, but it will almost certainly involve the dismantling of the international American led rule based international order, with wholly unpredictable consequences.
I have no doubt that Putin, China welcome Trump because he signifies the end of that system. He is a fool and an idiot, but not a hypocrite.
Clinton lead, 538/VC (% of expected vote accounted for)
CO: +3.1 / +3.0 (80.3%)
FL: +0.6 / +3.0 (83.9%)
IA: -2.9 / -1.0 (66.5%)
NV: +1.2 / +1.0 (68.8%)
NH: +3.6 / +4.0 (61.9%)
OH: -1.9 / -1.0 (73.7%)
PA: +3.7 / +3.0 (63.2%)
WI: +5.3 / +5.0 (62.0%)
Make of that what you will :-)
Looking ahead, it'll be interesting to see if this farce of an election causes the Reps or Dems to rethink things, or whether 2020 will be more of the same (I don't think Clinton will stand for a second term).
I have an early start tomorrow...but should I?
http://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2016/11/the-155-craziest-things-trump-said-this-cycle-214420
At all other times and in all other locations it tastes like toilet cleaner.
Hope your treatment is progressing OK?
Yes, the Fuoco is legit stuff, bought from a shop. Obviously targetted at tourists visiting Etna.
Sweet Jesus.
Stick to a single malt, sound advice for a young man starting out in life. Local spirits can be appalling in strength as well as taste, one has to grow up with them. I have drunk some terrible stuff in my time. The worst, by a short head, was the stuff I got served up by my guides out in the desert in Oman, but politeness decreed I had to drink the muck.
and still seeing Clinton ahead in all seven states shown there.
http://votecastr.us/widgets/#/states/CO
(replace last with FL IA NV NH OH PA WI)
It really shouldn't be this difficult for us :-)