538 is currently forecasting three states to change hands: Ohio and Iowa to Trump and North Carolina to Clinton. That would give Clinton 323, Trump 215.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.
Yes, he then has to pick up something like Michigan.
It's terrible: financially, Trump winning would be great for me.
But I don't think it would be good for the world. A retreat from free trade would - as it did in the early 1930s - have severe adverse consequences that we've all forgotten about.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
If it helps we had some distant relatives to stay from Florida of Colombian origin, they were definite Clinton voters, though preferred Sanders.
I have a friend in Florida who is of distant Hispanic origin, and who would probably count as native white in Britain but in the US she and her family are categorised as Hispanic. Family is middle class, not particularly well off, but doing okay. She voted for Sanders in the primary and put a clothespeg on her nose to vote for Clinton in the election. The rest of her family are enthusiastic Trump supporters. The view that Hispanics, or even Hispanophone Hispanics who don't have a Cuban background, all back Clinton is wishful thinking.
No one claims they do. But Trump isn't getting 40% of them like some polls say.
Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.
So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.
I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).
More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout. Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.
A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout. Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.
I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.
Just a quick raincheck - what is your explanation for Kentucky
Thanks for the welcome everybody.
I haven't looked at Kentucky, it's not competitive on either the Senate or Presidential level. Has something happened there, apart from Trump somehow overperforming Rand Paul ?
Democrat primary turnout way higher than GOP but obviously a very reliable GOP state.
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump. He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Betfair Exchange offers both a Winning Party bet and a Next President bet, with the odds on the current candidates being elected slightly longer than their parties - i.e. punters factor in a 1% chance of it ending up with someone else. Very unlikely IMO but it's an exchange so they don't care who's right.
They settle on the electoral college results of today, though (unless no-one has a majority of the EC).
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.
Minnesota in particular I can't see Trump winning. Seems more small 'l' liberal than the rest of the rustbelt.
Unfortunately Minnesota had a caucus where most GOP voters thought Marco Rubio was a relation of Ricky Rubio.
But I'm going to make a prediction, if you see the USA map of 2012 at county level you will notice a big blue blob at the Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois borders.
That's a relic of 19th century scandinavian immigrants who dominated the upper midwest, they are populists and progressives by tradition, it's slowly closing in over the decades and I think it will close almost completely today.
How long before Plato cites that as voter fraud? She's not gonna accept it when her hero gets roundly rejected by the people is she?
How is Trump, Plato's hero? Can you provide a link? This baiting of one of the few people on PB who posts contrary views on USA is very unseemly.
Baiting? When someone provides info from bad sources I'm allowed to point it out. She has constantly implied the election is rigged against the candidate she supports with zero reliable evidence that tells me she won't accept the result even if the result is clear.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.
Yes, he then has to pick up something like Michigan.
It's terrible: financially, Trump winning would be great for me.
But I don't think it would be good for the world. A retreat from free trade would - as it did in the early 1930s - have severe adverse consequences that we've all forgotten about.
The idea that Trump will stick to policies and see them through when president is laughable. He is going to let down so many people, while proving so many others correct.
I don't know about anyone else but I'm in a right old mess with my betting. My state bets are all over the shop...I've just checked, and seen a shedload on gender...god knows when I put that on. Must have been a late nighter..... I've got stuff on EV's votes too that I didn't know I had, and my turnout bets look crap.
The US election is far too complicated for someone like me.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Betfair Exchange offers both a Winning Party bet and a Next President bet, with the odds on the current candidates being elected slightly longer than their parties - i.e. punters factor in a 1% chance of it ending up with someone else. Very unlikely IMO but it's an exchange so they don't care who's right.
They settle on the electoral college results of today, though (unless no-one has a majority of the EC).
I've got about 1.2k liability on "anyone else" (Except select chosen few) - not really worried about it, just I'll be laying rather than backing this evening.
Going off topic but surely if Trump wins we will have to interpret Brexit as being a cri du coeur against the current system in its broadest sense rather than a vote specifically for leaving the EU? Fundamentally it's mass-immigration and the financialisation of the economy that people want to put a stop to. Leaving the EU is not a solution to their problems.
ROFL
you'll twist the EUref anyway possible to say we didnt vote for what we voted
He's right. When they see May looking as though she's about to welcome large numbers of Indian immigrants as part of a post-Brexit trade deal, most ordinary people who voted for Brexit will think exactly that: "this isn't what we thought we were voting for".
Maybe this is the meaning of the asinine phrase "Brexit means Brexit"? "The ballot paper said leave the EU, and that's all you'll get, you dirty oiks". On the face of it, it's supposed to convey resolve and respect for the electorate; a deeper meaning is "shut the fuck up".
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump. He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
The "little people"might have voted for Brexit and they may elect Trump. It doesn't mean they are right and everyone else has to shut up.
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.
Yes, he then has to pick up something like Michigan.
It's terrible: financially, Trump winning would be great for me.
But I don't think it would be good for the world. A retreat from free trade would - as it did in the early 1930s - have severe adverse consequences that we've all forgotten about.
The idea that Trump will stick to policies and see them through when president is laughable. He is going to let down so many people, while proving so many others correct.
Listen SO...less off that wallowing in pity before the horse has bolted. Stiff upper lip...There's plenty of time to whine if Trump gets elected..
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.
Minnesota in particular I can't see Trump winning. Seems more small 'l' liberal than the rest of the rustbelt.
Unfortunately Minnesota had a caucus where most GOP voters thought Marco Rubio was a relation of Ricky Rubio.
But I'm going to make a prediction, if you see the USA map of 2012 at county level you will notice a big blue blob at the Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois borders.
That's a relic of 19th century scandinavian immigrants who dominated the upper midwest, they are populists and progressives by tradition, it's slowly closing in over the decades and I think it will close almost completely today.
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Betfair Exchange offers both a Winning Party bet and a Next President bet, with the odds on the current candidates being elected slightly longer than their parties - i.e. punters factor in a 1% chance of it ending up with someone else. Very unlikely IMO but it's an exchange so they don't care who's right.
Betfair's "Next President" market is intending to pay out tomorrow though, based on the declarations of the States - the various machinations were discussed when both Trump and Clinton have looked like they might be replaced over the past few months. They'll only hold it if neither main candidate gets to 270 tonight.
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump. He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
The "little people"might have voted for Brexit and they may elect Trump. It doesn't mean they are right and everyone else has to shut up.
Sure, but it doesn't mean they have to shut up either!
Well I'm unbanned for now, so thanks who ever did pressed the button.
So here is the picture I had from last night, the national polls got into herding mode for Hillary but the state polls moved (but not uniformly) towards Trump since the weekend.
I gave Trump a 1 in 3 chance of winning because of Florida (50/50) N.C (50/50) and one of Michigan Pennsylvania (33/66).
More importantly we can say that the opinion polls were wrong on one area, turnout. Instead of a historically low turnout we probably are going to get a historically high one.
A lot of focus is of course on Florida, most media sites reported that Hispanic turnout is sky high, but so is White turnout. Hispanics added an extra 0.5 million votes but Whites an extra 1 million.
I'm a fan of the theory that the primaries get reflected in the GE, so I expect the map of Florida (and other states) to look more like the GOP primary map.
Just a quick raincheck - what is your explanation for Kentucky
Thanks for the welcome everybody.
I haven't looked at Kentucky, it's not competitive on either the Senate or Presidential level. Has something happened there, apart from Trump somehow overperforming Rand Paul ?
Democrat primary turnout way higher than GOP but obviously a very reliable GOP state.
Bit of an anomaly, that's all.
Kentucky had a caucus for the first time ever instead of a primary. Also along with W.Virginia it's a relic of rural Democrats who vote Republican since 2000 in almost every race but are still registered Democrats.
Anyway I think my GOP primary-GE election theory is going to be tested most in Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania it would be Bucks county that we should have an eye on, Trump did worse than normal in the south-eastern Philadelphia suburbs but not in the northern ones.
I don't know about anyone else but I'm in a right old mess with my betting. My state bets are all over the shop...I've just checked, and seen a shedload on gender...god knows when I put that on. Must have been a late nighter..... I've got stuff on EV's votes too that I didn't know I had, and my turnout bets look crap.
The US election is far too complicated for someone like me.
I am on Trump in the Midwest states, but Hillary overall. I do best on an HC landslide, but am not overexposed. Some of my legacy bets from 6 months ago do look a little odd now!
What a pointless article. Just some meaningless waffle about being progressive.
Chuka? The point is, ladies and gentleman, that left -- for lack of a better word -- is good. Left is right. Left works. Left clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Left, in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Let -- you mark my words -- will not only save the UK, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA.
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump. He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
The "little people"might have voted for Brexit and they may elect Trump. It doesn't mean they are right and everyone else has to shut up.
Sure, but it doesn't mean they have to shut up either!
As far as I am aware no-one is telling them to shut up - it seems to apply only to anyone who dares suggest that they may not have suddenly inherited the wisdom of Solomon in bringing Brexit & Trump upon us.
How long before Plato cites that as voter fraud? She's not gonna accept it when her hero gets roundly rejected by the people is she?
How is Trump, Plato's hero? Can you provide a link? This baiting of one of the few people on PB who posts contrary views on USA is very unseemly.
Baiting? When someone provides info from bad sources I'm allowed to point it out. She has constantly implied the election is rigged against the candidate she supports with zero reliable evidence that tells me she won't accept the result even if the result is clear.
Bad sources? After the shite we had about the Referendum polling and the GE2015?
What a pointless article. Just some meaningless waffle about being progressive.
Chuka? The point is, ladies and gentleman, that left -- for lack of a better word -- is good. Left is right. Left works. Left clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit. Left, in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind. And Let -- you mark my words -- will not only save the UK, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA.
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
Sporting's ECVs spread hasn't so far moved by more than a single vote all day which suggests that either they're doing no business or, more likely, there's well balanced business across their spread of 306-316 ECVs for Hillary and 221-231 ECVs for the Donald. The next significant move might well tell us in which direction the election is moving - nothing talks as convincingly as money!
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.
Yes, he then has to pick up something like Michigan.
It's terrible: financially, Trump winning would be great for me.
But I don't think it would be good for the world. A retreat from free trade would - as it did in the early 1930s - have severe adverse consequences that we've all forgotten about.
The idea that Trump will stick to policies and see them through when president is laughable. He is going to let down so many people, while proving so many others correct.
Listen SO...less off that wallowing in pity before the horse has bolted. Stiff upper lip...There's plenty of time to whine if Trump gets elected..
Frank Luntz @FrankLuntz 3m3 minutes ago Manhattan, NY Also getting reports of voter turnout flooding polling stations in FL and NV
Especially in Hispanic areas. Not good for Trump
I don't know the nuances, but aren't hispanics in those states different in terms of voter preference?
The prevailing thought was that the FL Hispanics are mostly Cuban Republicans, whereas the NV Hispanics are mainly Mexican Democrats.
If FL goes for Donald he could well be in with a shout - certainly good news for those laying Hillary on the EC 330-up spreads everyone was excited about yesterday.
I think only a minority of FL hispanics are of Cubanextraction. Historically they were fairly right wing, but possibly not so much as at the height of the cold war.
Yes, I think the demographics are slowly changing in Florida, but like most of these things there's way more heat than light coming from the voting reports. If Hillary wins FL then the Donald has only a very windy path to 270 through the rustbelt States.
Yes, he then has to pick up something like Michigan.
It's terrible: financially, Trump winning would be great for me.
But I don't think it would be good for the world. A retreat from free trade would - as it did in the early 1930s - have severe adverse consequences that we've all forgotten about.
The idea that Trump will stick to policies and see them through when president is laughable. He is going to let down so many people, while proving so many others correct.
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
Nick Clegg is not powerful.
So we are going to get that £350 million extra a week for the NHS after all.
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
Michael Moore nailed it as to why places like Michigan could well vote Trump. He still said to vote Hillary, but at least he understands the arguments and where these people are coming from. They feel so let down by the system and want to give the biggest f.you possible now that they have the opportunity.
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
Its heading towards civil unrest whatever happens, but the version I fear the most is the one where the brexit is denied and we are stuck in a declining EU which is blamed for everyone's problems.
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
The "little people"might have voted for Brexit and they may elect Trump. It doesn't mean they are right and everyone else has to shut up.
It doesn't mean that everyone has to shut up, but it does mean that those who seem determined to continue saying that the vote of the people should be ignored, are likely to bring out the worst behaviour in those people that did vote to leave.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
Is Nick Clegg really in a powerful position?
To most of the white working class, most definitely. He is a Member of Parliament after all, when he's not moonlighting for the BBC at fifteen grand a day.
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......
Let me dig up that clip of May in a builders outfit....
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......
Let me dig up that clip of May in a builders outfit....
She actually looks very fetching dressed in her Indian fancy dress costume....
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......
Let me dig up that clip of May in a builders outfit....
She actually looks very fetching dressed in her Indian fancy dress costume....
This feels very brexitty. I've not followed the polls, but my gut says trump will win. In the last minute people would be more likely to swich to trump than back a failing status quo, in that sense it is like brexit over again. As much as I detest trump, I'm not sure HRC would do a good job as president, it is impossible task she would be taking on.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
Is Nick Clegg really in a powerful position?
To most of the white working class, most definitely. He is a Member of Parliament after all, when he's not moonlighting for the BBC at fifteen grand a day.
You have a very strange view of the white working class. Why would they not know that the LibDems got massacred at the last GE, that Clegg is no longer LD leader and that backbench MPs have virtually no power?
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
The "little people"might have voted for Brexit and they may elect Trump. It doesn't mean they are right and everyone else has to shut up.
It doesn't mean that everyone has to shut up, but it does mean that those who seem determined to continue saying that the vote of the people should be ignored, are likely to bring out the worst behaviour in those people that did vote to leave.
I just don't believe that the average Leave voter is irrational, intolerant and prone to violence.
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......
But they're not trying to compete with 'Naked News', they're trying to predict the election - and at that, they don't seem to have much of a clue.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
The problem is, Mr Observer, that our PB right-wingers think that that is a good thing.
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......
Let me dig up that clip of May in a builders outfit....
She actually looks very fetching dressed in her Indian fancy dress costume....
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
Is Nick Clegg really in a powerful position?
To most of the white working class, most definitely. He is a Member of Parliament after all, when he's not moonlighting for the BBC at fifteen grand a day.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
Is Nick Clegg really in a powerful position?
To most of the white working class, most definitely. He is a Member of Parliament after all, when he's not moonlighting for the BBC at fifteen grand a day.
You have a very strange view of the white working class. Why would they not know that the LibDems got massacred at the last GE, that Clegg is no longer LD leader and that backbench MPs have virtually no power?
Backbench MPs certainly have power in numbers.
They do know that Clegg is trying to force a vote in Parliament on triggering Brexit, so that he and a number of fellow MPs can vote against acknowledging the referendum result.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
The problem is, Mr Observer, that our PB right-wingers think that that is a good thing.
But don't the opinion polls show the Tories outpolling GE2015, and Labour underperforming?
Michael Moore is right, and the intensity and scale on which that happened during the Brexit referendum weren't foreseen by most pundits. Most pundits don't meet many "ordinary" people, and on the rare occasions that they do, they are cocooned by their presumptions which are often off the wall. For generations, no mainstream politicians have listened to how ordinary native people in Britain feel about immigration. "WWC" means what you scrape off your shoes. The general attitude is to file people's concerns under "dirty, dirty". That's not the path to understanding. It itself is a prejudice. I think Trump will win tonight. Obnoxious as he is, he is right to say that the US is broken. Millions are living in their cars. Pretty much Clinton's only hope is the Hispanic and black working class. Both she and Trump represent divide and rule. It is a crying shame that Bernie Sanders wasn't the Democratic candidate. He could have kicked the billionaire's arse.
HOWEVER, winning in Betfair terms isn't the whole of the story. If Trump wins by a small majority - states accounting for between 270 and 280 seats, say - then a big lobbying effort will be aimed at the electors by his opponents. They have six weeks! There will in effect be a GOTV and a write-in campaign, or more than one, aimed at the electorate of 538 people.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
The "little people"might have voted for Brexit and they may elect Trump. It doesn't mean they are right and everyone else has to shut up.
It doesn't mean that everyone has to shut up, but it does mean that those who seem determined to continue saying that the vote of the people should be ignored, are likely to bring out the worst behaviour in those people that did vote to leave.
I just don't believe that the average Leave voter is irrational, intolerant and prone to violence.
The average Leave voter isn't. Some will be though, led on by Farage and the Daily Express.
I increase Hispanic turnout to 100% (I'm generous to Hillary), I shift college educated whites 10 points to Hillary, I shift non-college educated whites 15 points to Trump while increasing their turnout to 70%. I keep the black vote the same as 2012, which might also be generous to Hillary.
I get Trump winning slightly over Hillary in the Popular Vote and wins the election with the Rust Belt while being weak in the West and Texas.
Agree with all of that. The Brexit vote should have been a wake up to a lot of people, and it hasn't been. We still have the Nick Cleggs and Chuka Umunnas going on about the little people being wrong, and of course we should stay in the EU. If they don't shut up soon I fear there will be civil unrest.
Was disappointed to see that no-one is yet offering a market on who will actually be the next President - there has to be a non-zero chance it's not whoever Betfair pays out on tomorrow morning.
Why would be their civil unrest over people expressing their opinion that we should not leave the EU? Are we really becoming that intolerant of opinions we do not like? If so, our democracy is finished.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
It looks to these people, as if other people - those in powerful positions like Nick Clegg - have decided that the voice of 17.4 million who voted to leave the EU should just be ignored, as if it never happened.
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
Is Nick Clegg really in a powerful position?
To most of the white working class, most definitely. He is a Member of Parliament after all, when he's not moonlighting for the BBC at fifteen grand a day.
Judging by the early vote i suspect it will hold on in WI.
Don't base it much on Votecastr, they take the early vote and they make demographic assumptions without knowing what those people voted for.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
I meant where the returns were coming from in the early voting days; i'm not touching Votecastr with a bargepole.
It's got some nice ambient music between reports which is very soothing and a very fit presenter..........I know I'm getting repetitive.......
Let me dig up that clip of May in a builders outfit....
She actually looks very fetching dressed in her Indian fancy dress costume....
Yet more racism from Remoaning lefty tyson!
Sorry Sunil...in hindsight that didn't sound right. She does look fetching though....and I think Indian women are the most beautiful in the world (well next to Italians)
I increase Hispanic turnout to 100% (I'm generous to Hillary), I shift college educated whites 10 points to Hillary, I shift non-college educated whites 15 points to Trump while increasing their turnout to 70%. I keep the black vote the same as 2012, which might also be generous to Hillary.
I get Trump winning slightly over Hillary in the Popular Vote and wins the election with the Rust Belt while being weak in the West and Texas.
I've decided to further increase my stake in several large popcorn conglomerates.
Comments
Popular vote: Clinton +3.5%.
It's terrible: financially, Trump winning would be great for me.
But I don't think it would be good for the world. A retreat from free trade would - as it did in the early 1930s - have severe adverse consequences that we've all forgotten about.
Bit of an anomaly, that's all.
A lot of white working class people are currently being kicked in the teeth by major government spending cuts on welfare and on the public services they rely on. I would love it if just once right wingers on PB acknowledged this.
But I'm going to make a prediction, if you see the USA map of 2012 at county level you will notice a big blue blob at the Iowa, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Illinois borders.
That's a relic of 19th century scandinavian immigrants who dominated the upper midwest, they are populists and progressives by tradition, it's slowly closing in over the decades and I think it will close almost completely today.
The US election is far too complicated for someone like me.
Maybe this is the meaning of the asinine phrase "Brexit means Brexit"? "The ballot paper said leave the EU, and that's all you'll get, you dirty oiks". On the face of it, it's supposed to convey resolve and respect for the electorate; a deeper meaning is "shut the fuck up".
see martinvotes.com
https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/#/politics/market/1.107373419
Also along with W.Virginia it's a relic of rural Democrats who vote Republican since 2000 in almost every race but are still registered Democrats.
Anyway I think my GOP primary-GE election theory is going to be tested most in Wisconsin.
In Pennsylvania it would be Bucks county that we should have an eye on, Trump did worse than normal in the south-eastern Philadelphia suburbs but not in the northern ones.
I have backed the ARSE, on turnout and overall.
The point is, ladies and gentleman, that left -- for lack of a better word -- is good.
Left is right.
Left works.
Left clarifies, cuts through, and captures the essence of the evolutionary spirit.
Left, in all of its forms -- greed for life, for money, for love, knowledge -- has marked the upward surge of mankind.
And Let -- you mark my words -- will not only save the UK, but that other malfunctioning corporation called the USA.
Ed is good!
Maybe if the government wasn't subsidising (through the EU) things like car factories in Turkey and various projects Eastern Europe, and providing housing benefits and tax credits to Romanian Big Issue sellers, there would be more money available for welfare to the British population?
Let's not turn this into another Brexit thread though, agree to disagree for tonight
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3913524/The-extraordinary-intimate-Trump-family-photos-THRIFT-SHOP-showing-Donald-s-softer-side.html
The next significant move might well tell us in which direction the election is moving - nothing talks as convincingly as money!
http://order-order.com/2016/11/08/248955/
Trump into 9-2.
So we are going to get that £350 million extra a week for the NHS after all.
But I agree; no Brexit from me tonight.
I can expect Milwaukee voting Hillary while Trump sweeps the countryside, a 180 swap from 2012.
Milwaukee is a very weird city politically, it's the only place where it's more conservative than the rural parts of the state, but it's strictly economically conservative (abolish Social Security types).
http://www.slate.com/votecastr_election_day_turnout_tracker.html
2012: Obama +6%
2016: Republicans +4%
Pennsylvania is expecting 80% turnout.
I think we are going to see the battle of the turnouts, young vs old, working class vs rich, minorities vs whites, just like......Brexit ?
They NEVER do.
I've not followed the polls, but my gut says trump will win. In the last minute people would be more likely to swich to trump than back a failing status quo, in that sense it is like brexit over again.
As much as I detest trump, I'm not sure HRC would do a good job as president, it is impossible task she would be taking on.
http://www.270towin.com/maps/wOLG9
The turnout is high....quite who is being motivated to vote is impossible to know at the minute....
Frank ‘public opinion guru’ Luntz, has a mischievous sense of humour. Or should we panic?
They do know that Clegg is trying to force a vote in Parliament on triggering Brexit, so that he and a number of fellow MPs can vote against acknowledging the referendum result.
There is high Latino turnout but also high White turnout.
Here take this and move the turnout figures around:
http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/
I increase Hispanic turnout to 100% (I'm generous to Hillary), I shift college educated whites 10 points to Hillary, I shift non-college educated whites 15 points to Trump while increasing their turnout to 70%.
I keep the black vote the same as 2012, which might also be generous to Hillary.
I get Trump winning slightly over Hillary in the Popular Vote and wins the election with the Rust Belt while being weak in the West and Texas.
https://www.reddit.com/r/germany/comments/59bnxe/at_what_time_you_shower_in_germany/
"Zeitbegrenzte Ausländer-Duschzeitgenehmigungsantrag" which I think loosely translates to "foreigner shower permit"
http://order-order.com/2016/11/03/clegg-makes-60000-month-15000-hignfy/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Linguistic_prescription
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Grammar_Nazi
An interesting experiment but the danger is that in the absence of firm evidence any information will do.