politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reflecting on the longest w
Comments
-
Boris "100 MPs" Johnson....
0 -
0
-
Mr. Gin, indeed. Machiavelli would be proud. Maybe he's a modern day Septimius Severus.
Mr. Mortimer, I know that feeling. Didn't even back my own 70/1 winning tip on Button winning the 2009 title.0 -
Once it gets to the final two after the MP's ballot, could one stand down to avoid a vote of the party?0
-
Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
Nigella Lawson is going to be feeling good today:
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2011/09/toby-young-toadmeister-has-bet-15000-that-boris-johnson-will-be-tory-leader-by-2018.html0 -
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.0 -
Oh my, Mr Aaronvitch has clocked up 1240 comments. This is an almighty spanking for the bien pensants.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-anger-is-so-great-we-must-have-a-new-vote-wx6s953z70 -
We knife from the front without sharpening it first. But all the Tory leadership races, this one by Gove was by far the most cunning and ruthless.TheScreamingEagles said:The Tories remind us that Labour has nothing on them when it comes to ruthlessness.
0 -
Mange tout, mange tout.DecrepitJohnL said:
Boris as Tory chairman -- the Jeffrey Archer de nos jours?NickPalmer said:
I think that's right. I see a stellar career for him as a sparkling, funny, incisive media pundit and author. I doubt if he'll even stand again for Parliament - too much like hard work.Jonathan said:
He has never had a run at being leader. If the next leader fails (which is not impossible in the rocky seas ahead), commeth the hour commeth the Boris to save the Tory party.MaxPB said:
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
In the meantime, he's write a book.0 -
The nasty party- will haunt May.TheScreamingEagles said:The Tories remind us that Labour has nothing on them when it comes to ruthlessness.
0 -
Yes, we do regicide properly. How the opposition benches must be looking on with envy at how the Tory Corbyn has been disposed of.TheScreamingEagles said:The Tories remind us that Labour has nothing on them when it comes to ruthlessness.
0 -
Nixon going to China.nunu said:
The nasty party- will haunt May.TheScreamingEagles said:The Tories remind us that Labour has nothing on them when it comes to ruthlessness.
0 -
So Boris out, hard to see past May now especially given her convincing lead in the members' poll yesterday and Gove's previous statements that he 'is not up to the job'0
-
Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.
What a shit.0 -
Good that I laid Boris Johnson at 2.3
Just heard Theresa May on the radio saying there will definitely be Brexit and definitely no second referendum. What a fine example of paraleipsis! She had probably just put the phone down from conferring with Angela Merkel on how to keep Britain in the EU.
As for Gove, I suppose someone might be playing 11-dimensional chess, but it seems extremely surprising that an ambitious wannabe Macchiavellian like Sarah Vine didn't realise David Cameron would resign if he lost the referendum. It was obvious he would.0 -
Heh, May's barb about Boris' water cannons... titter0
-
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.mr-claypole said:What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.0 -
I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
Sleazy, greasy Mensch on the slide.Richard_Nabavi said:@LouiseMensch
Can the news stop for five minutes must wash hair0 -
Yes, Secretary of State for Transport with special responsibility for Heathrow expansion and road tollsRichard_Nabavi said:
No.Fenster said:Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?
0 -
Any news on the Eagle ?
Has she launched ?0 -
I doubt it, Mr. Bob. I don't even think that sending the letter actually needs a vote in parliament, though I am sure there will be a debate. I also doubt that there will be enough, if any, Conservative rebels if a push does come to a shove. On top of which there are the Ulster Unionists and who knows what the Labour position will be, if they even have one.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
Yes AFAIK.RobD said:Once it gets to the final two after the MP's ballot, could one stand down to avoid a vote of the party?
0 -
If there's one final, final twist in all of this it could be Andrea Leadsom swooping in from nowhere?HYUFD said:So Boris out, hard to see past May now especially given her convincing lead in the members' poll yesterday and Gove's previous statements that he 'is not up to the job'
0 -
Getting matched at 9 again on D. Miliband0
-
When's the first vote on the shortlist for the Conservative leadership? Tuesday?0
-
Did the usual channels arrange todays entertainment to be provided by the Conservative leadership election in the morning and the Labour leadership election in the afternoon?
When is the Green leadership election?0 -
Yep, then Thursday (and the following Tue and Thu until it gets down to 2)Morris_Dancer said:When's the first vote on the shortlist for the Conservative leadership? Tuesday?
0 -
I agree. But I also wonder about Round 1 with 2 REMAIN vs 3 LEAVE. I really really want her in the final two, fingers and other bits crossed.surbiton said:If Leadsom survives after Round 2, she could make it. She has not said anything contradictory as far as I can remember.
0 -
So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?0 -
Why wouldn't he go all the way?MaxPB said:
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.mr-claypole said:What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?0 -
The bosses at Heathrow are presumably opening the Champagne as well.0
-
Mr. D, cheers.0
-
Surely Brexit means there will be no need for another runway?Richard_Nabavi said:The bosses at Heathrow are presumably opening the Champagne as well.
0 -
Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.Pulpstar said:Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.
0 -
You've got to feel sorry for the podcast people -- the longest week just got longer.0
-
There wouldn't need to be many more anti-A50 Tory rebels than pro-A50 Labour rebels.HurstLlama said:I don't even think that sending the letter actually needs a vote in parliament, though I am sure there will be a debate. I also doubt that there will be enough, if any, Conservative rebels if a push does come to a shove. On top of which there are the Ulster Unionists and who knows what the Labour position will be, if they even have one.
0 -
I think the longest it could go is three rounds, so Tuesday 12th July.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. D, cheers.
0 -
Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.Pulpstar said:Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.
0 -
Because he has told us that he does not have the qualities required for the top job?Pong said:
Why wouldn't he go all the way?MaxPB said:
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.mr-claypole said:What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?0 -
From a Labour point of view, I fear Leadsom the most, followed by May. Gove would be our choice.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I agree. But I also wonder about Round 1 with 2 REMAIN vs 3 LEAVE. I really really want her in the final two, fingers and other bits crossed.surbiton said:If Leadsom survives after Round 2, she could make it. She has not said anything contradictory as far as I can remember.
0 -
Now you are pointing out inconsistencies in the REMAIN official camp arguments. It is not fair to mock losers.tlg86 said:
Surely Brexit means there will be no need for another runway?Richard_Nabavi said:The bosses at Heathrow are presumably opening the Champagne as well.
0 -
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?0 -
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.Pong said:
Why wouldn't he go all the way?MaxPB said:
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.mr-claypole said:What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?0 -
But that was THEN, this is NOW.HurstLlama said:
Because he has told us that he does not have the qualities required for the top job?Pong said:
Why wouldn't he go all the way?MaxPB said:
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.mr-claypole said:What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?
Politics 1010 -
No time for party political advantage. Gove would be extremely helpful party politically but would destroy Europe, so can't be him.surbiton said:
From a Labour point of view, I fear Leadsom the most, followed by May. Gove would be our choice.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I agree. But I also wonder about Round 1 with 2 REMAIN vs 3 LEAVE. I really really want her in the final two, fingers and other bits crossed.surbiton said:If Leadsom survives after Round 2, she could make it. She has not said anything contradictory as far as I can remember.
0 -
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
May is the MP for Maidenhead. To get Heathrow, you will have to wait for a Labour government.Richard_Nabavi said:The bosses at Heathrow are presumably opening the Champagne as well.
0 -
Leadsom was in both debates. She's as tied to Leaves lies as Boris was.surbiton said:
From a Labour point of view, I fear Leadsom the most, followed by May. Gove would be our choice.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I agree. But I also wonder about Round 1 with 2 REMAIN vs 3 LEAVE. I really really want her in the final two, fingers and other bits crossed.surbiton said:If Leadsom survives after Round 2, she could make it. She has not said anything contradictory as far as I can remember.
0 -
Mr. Surbiton, I'd agree with that assessment.
That said, Corbyn is kryptonite for Labour.
Mr. D, thanks for that extra info.
Been getting very little work done. Not because of worries about the economy, but because politics is frenetic and crammed with more dramatic twists than the best TV series.
Incidentally, no release date yet but it's looking promising for Explorations (sci-fi anthology in which I have a short story) to be released this year. Also, still possible Kingdom Asunder (novel set in the Bane of Souls/Journey to Altmortis world) will also be out in 2016.0 -
Yes, so are the people who spend hours flying around over Heathrow every week waiting to land.Richard_Nabavi said:The bosses at Heathrow are presumably opening the Champagne as well.
0 -
Surely this confirms once and for all the Boris never wanted or intended to Leave.0
-
BTW, has Robert written a script that bans the use of "innocent face"?0
-
Leadsom is the "leave" true believer (With Fox) I guess. Horrible for UKIP, good for more "remainy" partiesYellowSubmarine said:
Leadsom was in both debates. She's as tied to Leaves lies as Boris was.surbiton said:
From a Labour point of view, I fear Leadsom the most, followed by May. Gove would be our choice.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I agree. But I also wonder about Round 1 with 2 REMAIN vs 3 LEAVE. I really really want her in the final two, fingers and other bits crossed.surbiton said:If Leadsom survives after Round 2, she could make it. She has not said anything contradictory as far as I can remember.
0 -
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
Had Nadine not realised that Boris was a bit posh himself? Wasn't the Bullingdon photo of Cameron, Osborne and Boris enough of a clue?surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
0 -
@Morris_Dancer
"Also, still possible Kingdom Asunder (novel set in the Bane of Souls/Journey to Altmortis world) will also be out in 2016."
Huzzah!0 -
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.Jobabob said:
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
0 -
There is bound to be a Leave candidate in the final two, Leadsom has more appeal than Fox and Gove and could be that candidate. Though Yougov showed May would still beat Leadsom with membersGIN1138 said:
If there's one final, final twist in all of this it could be Andrea Leadsom swooping in from nowhere?HYUFD said:So Boris out, hard to see past May now especially given her convincing lead in the members' poll yesterday and Gove's previous statements that he 'is not up to the job'
0 -
Actually, it's asterisks:tlg86 said:BTW, has Robert written a script that bans the use of "innocent face"?
*innocent face*0 -
This nexus of influence is so public now that it's almost become surreal ; but the essential immunity of it continues since leveson.Slackbladder said:Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson 3 mins3 minutes ago
Murdoch...Dacre...Gove friend of both...Boris's private life...wonder if there might be ...dots to be joined?0 -
I think Mr Gove is a true believer too.Pulpstar said:
Leadsom is the "leave" true believer (With Fox) I guess. Horrible for UKIP, good for more "remainy" partiesYellowSubmarine said:
Leadsom was in both debates. She's as tied to Leaves lies as Boris was.surbiton said:
From a Labour point of view, I fear Leadsom the most, followed by May. Gove would be our choice.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I agree. But I also wonder about Round 1 with 2 REMAIN vs 3 LEAVE. I really really want her in the final two, fingers and other bits crossed.surbiton said:If Leadsom survives after Round 2, she could make it. She has not said anything contradictory as far as I can remember.
0 -
The Greens don't have leaders DavidDavid_Evershed said:Did the usual channels arrange todays entertainment to be provided by the Conservative leadership election in the morning and the Labour leadership election in the afternoon?
When is the Green leadership election?
0 -
Why would he not want the leadership?MaxPB said:
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.Pong said:
Why wouldn't he go all the way?MaxPB said:
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.mr-claypole said:What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?0 -
Okay yes, thanks for the reply.anotherDave said:
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.Jobabob said:
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
He's said it. A lot.Pong said:
Why would he not want the leadership?MaxPB said:
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.Pong said:
Why wouldn't he go all the way?MaxPB said:
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.mr-claypole said:What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?0 -
Could he have tried "to form a coalition" with Ruth !!!!Jobabob said:surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
Something to do with a Scottish lass according to Bunco.0 -
Will Boris support him now ?Pong said:
Why would he not want the leadership?MaxPB said:
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.Pong said:
Why wouldn't he go all the way?MaxPB said:
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.mr-claypole said:What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?0 -
So, farewell then useful idiot.
The Establishment is truly brutal.0 -
May ditches another manifesto pledge.
James Landale @BBCJLandale 3h3 hours ago
Important: Theresa May ditches plan to pull UK out of ECHR - says it divides people & has no parliamentary majority
0 -
A coronation must now be a non-zero probability. Very unlikely, but not impossible.MaxPB said:
He's said it. A lot.Pong said:
Why would he not want the leadership?MaxPB said:
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.Pong said:
Why wouldn't he go all the way?MaxPB said:
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.mr-claypole said:What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?0 -
Leadership contests can take on a life of their own though. You don't know what might happen on the hustings and of course they'll be a TV debate on Question Time at some point...HYUFD said:
There is bound to be a Leave candidate in the final two, Leadsom has more appeal than Fox and Gove and could be that candidate. Though Yougov showed May would still beat Leadsom with membersGIN1138 said:
If there's one final, final twist in all of this it could be Andrea Leadsom swooping in from nowhere?HYUFD said:So Boris out, hard to see past May now especially given her convincing lead in the members' poll yesterday and Gove's previous statements that he 'is not up to the job'
0 -
You don't seriously think that's an impediment do you ?MaxPB said:
He's said it. A lot.Pong said:
Why would he not want the leadership?MaxPB said:
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.Pong said:
Why wouldn't he go all the way?MaxPB said:
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.mr-claypole said:What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?0 -
I tried to do it with <> and it disappeared.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Actually, it's asterisks:tlg86 said:BTW, has Robert written a script that bans the use of "innocent face"?
*innocent face*0 -
You provide the ring - I'll get the mud!Sunil_Prasannan said:
Nadine v. Anna???Fenster said:stjohn said:Gove drifting now. Will he actually stand now he has taken out Boris?
Interesting this. If Gove pulls out, and he might - I don't think he fancies being leader - will the Boris and Gove juggernaut get behind Leadsom?stjohn said:Gove drifting now. Will he actually stand now he has taken out Boris?
A Tory woman versus Tory woman would do wonders for the party image.0 -
At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.Pulpstar said:
Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.TCPoliticalBetting said:
Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.Pulpstar said:Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.
One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
0 -
Go on .... give us a clue.YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?0 -
But the Gove/Murdoch/Dacre axis is more sinister.SouthamObserver said:So, farewell then useful idiot.
The Establishment is truly brutal.0 -
How many female MP's do the Tories have?
How many are backing May or Leadsom at the moment?
How many are behind Crabb, Fox or Gove?
All woman shortlist going to the members?0 -
I don't think Leadsom is any kind of worry. may is.surbiton said:
From a Labour point of view, I fear Leadsom the most, followed by May. Gove would be our choice.TCPoliticalBetting said:
I agree. But I also wonder about Round 1 with 2 REMAIN vs 3 LEAVE. I really really want her in the final two, fingers and other bits crossed.surbiton said:If Leadsom survives after Round 2, she could make it. She has not said anything contradictory as far as I can remember.
But with Corbyn in place it doesn't really matter.
0 -
Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.anotherDave said:
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.Jobabob said:
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/194514690 -
I *think* that if you invoke Article 50 this December (2016), and then take exactly 2 years negotiating, then you have to pay EU Fees in 2016, 2017 and 2018 (when you are still a member), but not in 2019 (As you would have left).Jobabob said:
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
Conversely, if you invoke in January 2017 and take exactly 2 years then you would have to pay in 2019 as well so there is an incentive to invoke at the end of the year.0 -
If there was any dirt on Boris, they'd have splashed it in the papers during the referendum. This is just smearing.peter_from_putney said:
Go on .... give us a clue.YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
0 -
Mr. Llama, it's part one of a trilogy of civil war and intra-faction conflict, which I fear is looking a bit mild compared to modern British politics.
More dead nuns, though.
Anyway, I must be off. Given what happened the last time I was away, one shudders to think what may transpire in my absence.0 -
The manner in which is has said it is why he won't get it or doesn't want it. He has previously said that he isn't up to the job. How will that play with the voters if he becomes leader and Labour have sorted themselves out?Pulpstar said:
You don't seriously think that's an impediment do you ?MaxPB said:
He's said it. A lot.Pong said:
Why would he not want the leadership?MaxPB said:
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.Pong said:
Why wouldn't he go all the way?MaxPB said:
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.mr-claypole said:What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?0 -
Not if the papers were for Leave.anotherDave said:
If there was any dirt on Boris, they'd have splashed it in the papers during the referendum. This is just smearing.peter_from_putney said:
Go on .... give us a clue.YellowSubmarine said:
It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.surbiton said:So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.
So, what is this Boris scandal ?0 -
Only if it gets that far. Gove/Leadsome might have had enough of live debates and campaigning. May, on the other hand, has had a few weeks off!GIN1138 said:
Leadership contests can take on a life of their own though. You don't know what might happen on the hustings and of course they'll be a TV debate on Question Time at some point...HYUFD said:
There is bound to be a Leave candidate in the final two, Leadsom has more appeal than Fox and Gove and could be that candidate. Though Yougov showed May would still beat Leadsom with membersGIN1138 said:
If there's one final, final twist in all of this it could be Andrea Leadsom swooping in from nowhere?HYUFD said:So Boris out, hard to see past May now especially given her convincing lead in the members' poll yesterday and Gove's previous statements that he 'is not up to the job'
0 -
Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?0
-
All shoulders - no head!David_Evershed said:
Sleazy, greasy Mensch on the slide.Richard_Nabavi said:@LouiseMensch
Can the news stop for five minutes must wash hair0 -
Indeed. Imagine having SV listening to MG’s mutterings after meeting POTUS. Whoever the latter is!JohnO said:
But the Gove/Murdoch/Dacre axis is more sinister.SouthamObserver said:So, farewell then useful idiot.
The Establishment is truly brutal.0 -
That's true as well, another reason why the 5/2 on Q4 2016 is maybe too short.OldKingCole said:
Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.anotherDave said:
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.Jobabob said:
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).anotherDave said:
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.Jobabob said:Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
0 -
Good. Sanity has prevailed.TCPoliticalBetting said:May ditches another manifesto pledge.
James Landale @BBCJLandale 3h3 hours ago
Important: Theresa May ditches plan to pull UK out of ECHR - says it divides people & has no parliamentary majority
0 -
It's obviousness may weaken it, one might only hope.JohnO said:
But the Gove/Murdoch/Dacre axis is more sinister.SouthamObserver said:So, farewell then useful idiot.
The Establishment is truly brutal.0 -
ECHR membership was not put to a referendum of the people. Plus she just said "brexit means brexit"YellowSubmarine said:Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?
0 -
I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.
PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.
I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove
0
