My wife has just come off the phone to her sister, a partner in a US-based firm in the City.
First round of redundancies starts on Monday 'as a direct result of brexit'. As she says, the 'smart' Lawyers who voted Leave on the basis of reducing immigration will certainly get their wishes - they'll be doing their own cleaning whilst looking for other jobs.
Meanwhile, the French, who had been holding-up the top-end residential market in London are pulling out of housing transactions all over the leafy suburbs.
It's started. Project Reality.
There are no planned redundancies at the Silver Circle law firm I'm at, as far as I'm aware. I'm confused why a US operation would act before it knew what the medium term was going to look like.
Are you a partner (or more accurately, a member)? If not, I doubt you'd know. FWIW, I doubt that there will be plans as yet, but hiring will become more challenging and there will be questions over retention rates for the August qualifiers. Law firms still tend to avoid formal redundancies anyway and lean towards managing people out.
If rendundancies started on Monday, we'd know. There'd have to be a process.
I have seen the statement of the senior partner who believes this firm will do well. It is not the statement of a man about to manage redundancies.
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
I'm not sure I agree. I think he's done the right thing by stepping aside but he's such a flamboyant character and was such a big player in the Brexit campaign, that I can't see him fading into obscurity.
Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?
Theme from Gove camp (he himself the other day, and now Raab):
"I won't point fingers at other people"
= it was all my colleagues' fault; they are useless bastards.
Not IMO a great personality trait.
Like Boris, Gove has promised: * £350 million a week more spending on the NHS. * Tax cuts * No tax rises * No public spending cuts * All current EU grants and subsidies maintained * A selection of beneficial trade agreements * Major reductions in immigration * Ongoing, full access to the single market Like Boris, he will not be able to deliver.
St Michael's crucifixion on the cross of broken promises will be longer, more painful and elaborately exquisite, than bluffer Boris's 'gosh, cripes, did I say that? No I didn't!'
Gove also has his lack of belief in experts quote to deal with. I can't believe he seriously thinks he could face the electorate and win a majority.
He’s “not liked” in Education, is he.
That need not be held against him, Mr. Cole. Everyone who actually tries to get the Education System to deliver for the pupils and students is "not liked" by the education establishment. I think that has been true since 1874.
It was they way he did it, and the brutal legacy he’s left, I think, which more of his problem. However, when I was an employer in a small business in the 60’s & 70’s my drinking friends used to complain bitterly about the quality of school leavers.
I FUCKING TOLD YOU TO KEEP ON LAYING BORIS AND THAT HE WOULDN'T MAKE THE FINAL TWO
You've got every right to capitalise, use profanity and blow your trumpet to the rafters.
Poor old Boris. Like Heseltine, Portillo, Ken Clarke, David Miliband, and Chukka (who withdrew but would have lost)-a long list of the leaders that never were- all undoubtedly the most credible, charismatic and electoral appealing characters that never got the prize.
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
I'm not sure I agree. I think he's done the right thing by stepping aside but he's such a flamboyant character and was such a big player in the Brexit campaign, that I can't see him fading into obscurity.
Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?
Minister of Trade with his own Union Jack jumbo to gad around the planet with a whole bunch of CEO's?
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.
He has never had a run at being leader. If the next leader fails (which is not impossible in the rocky seas ahead), commeth the hour commeth the Boris to save the Tory party.
Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?
No.
I think May will want him in the tent. She may even offer him something to get reluctant leavers on board given that she'll be running against the purity of Gove's version of Brexit.
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.
Ages ago, I said Boris was best for Party Chairman - I still think that. I'd like to see him involved in Team Brexit as an ambassador.
Jesus H. Christ. What a way to respond to the Chakrabarti report:
@MarcusDysch: Corbyn: "'Zio' is a vile epithet. Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for actions of Israel than Muslims are for Islamic State."
Why is anyone surprised? Corbyn has been Chair of Stop the War which was against fighting IS but did want war on Israel (though they tried deleting those bits of their website saying so). In such people's minds there is no moral difference between Israel and IS. Corbyn and his ilk simply do not understand why the relationship between being Jewish and Israel is very different to that between being Muslim and IS. Hence his crassness. He is, of course, right that one should not hold Muslims as a group responsible for the actions of IS. He is far less clear about holding the ideology behind IS responsible for IS.
Please elaborate what is the difference ?
Israel is important to what it means to be Jewish. One key Jewish prayer is about "Next year in Jerusalem."
IS is not important to what it means to be Muslim, however much IS would like it to be so. Most Muslims will tell you that IS is a perversion of and a total misunderstanding of Islam.
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
I'm not sure I agree. I think he's done the right thing by stepping aside but he's such a flamboyant character and was such a big player in the Brexit campaign, that I can't see him fading into obscurity.
Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?
Boris's future remains interesting. Perhaps he has just escaped becoming the most unpopular politician in the country. He still deserves "Minister for Brexit" but I can't see May appointing him to anything much, after her comments. For sure, chuntering on the backbenches isn't going to keep him happy, and he wont like being offered anything that doesn't look like a top job. So what does he do?
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
I'm not sure I agree. I think he's done the right thing by stepping aside but he's such a flamboyant character and was such a big player in the Brexit campaign, that I can't see him fading into obscurity.
Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?
Like Portillo he will resign and become a TV celeb visiting the battlefields of Greece and Persia quoting Homer and Socrates..
To expand on what I said, this moment was the ideal one for Boris. For better or worse, he seized the political initiative in the run-up to the referendum. It was a big bet which, after an initial wobble, he won. That put him into pole position in terms of being the guy who had seized the ball as it emerged from the scrum*, but it didn't alter the fact that that as a candidate for high office he has very serious drawbacks. Those drawbacks won't go away, but the unique opportunity has.
* Apologies for the mixed metaphor. I'm not very good on sports!
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
I did wonder after his conspicuous absence from the HoC when Cameron made his statement on the referendum - maybe he just concluded that he didn't want it badly enough.
Mrs May, on the other hand has been wading through effluent for six years, doing a lot of other people's dirty work and not much minding.....anyone who can take on the Police Federation in their own den can give the EU a decent run for their money, albeit with a much poorer hand than the LEAVErs would have you believe.....
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.
He has never had a run at being leader. If the next leader fails (which is not impossible in the rocky seas ahead), commeth the hour commeth the Boris to save the Tory party.
In the meantime, he's write a book.
I think that's right. I see a stellar career for him as a sparkling, funny, incisive media pundit and author. I doubt if he'll even stand again for Parliament - too much like hard work.
Jesus H. Christ. What a way to respond to the Chakrabarti report:
@MarcusDysch: Corbyn: "'Zio' is a vile epithet. Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for actions of Israel than Muslims are for Islamic State."
Why is anyone surprised? Corbyn has been Chair of Stop the War which was against fighting IS but did want war on Israel (though they tried deleting those bits of their website saying so). In such people's minds there is no moral difference between Israel and IS. Corbyn and his ilk simply do not understand why the relationship between being Jewish and Israel is very different to that between being Muslim and IS. Hence his crassness. He is, of course, right that one should not hold Muslims as a group responsible for the actions of IS. He is far less clear about holding the ideology behind IS responsible for IS.
Please elaborate what is the difference ?
Israel is important to what it means to be Jewish. One key Jewish prayer is about "Next year in Jerusalem."
IS is not important to what it means to be Muslim, however much IS would like it to be so. Most Muslims will tell you that IS is a perversion of and a total misunderstanding of Islam.
As per the BBC. Gove said he said he was standing because he had come "to the conclusion that Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead".
Now Boris is out does Gove have a reason to stand?
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.
He has never had a run at being leader. If the next leader fails (which is not impossible in the rocky seas ahead), commeth the hour commeth the Boris to save the Tory party.
In the meantime, he's write a book.
I'd be surprised. He'd have to keep his head down, stay loyal, and be seen to work as part of the new Tory team to earn enough brownie points to be able to run again, if such an opportunity arises. Boris is the least temperamentally able person on the planet to do that; he is driven most of all by being the centre of attention.
And it could be a long shot anyway - if Brexit doesn't work out well it will probably tarnish the whole Tory brand, not just the incoming PM.
If nominations have now closed, then Crabb is not a candidate, right? If so, anyone with £1000 to spare can mop up at 3% interest in two months laying him on Betfair. DYOR though.
If nominations have now closed, then Crabb is not a candidate, right? If so, anyone with £1000 to spare can mop up at 3% interest in two months laying him on Betfair. DYOR though.
Surely after making that speech he put in his nom papers?
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.
He has never had a run at being leader. If the next leader fails (which is not impossible in the rocky seas ahead), commeth the hour commeth the Boris to save the Tory party.
In the meantime, he's write a book.
I'd be surprised. He'd have to keep his head down, stay loyal, and be seen to work as part of the new Tory team to earn enough brownie points to be able to run again, if such an opportunity arises. Boris is the least temperamentally able person on the planet to do that. And it could be a long shot anyway - if Brexit doesn't work out well it will probably tarnish the whole Tory brand, not just the incoming PM.
It could get very nasty for the new government. There will be a moment where people look for a game changer.
Clearly, it depends heavily on what he does and the context of the failure, but Boris could easily be seen as such a game changer.
Either way it seems a touch early to write him off.
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.
He has never had a run at being leader. If the next leader fails (which is not impossible in the rocky seas ahead), commeth the hour commeth the Boris to save the Tory party.
In the meantime, he's write a book.
I think that's right. I see a stellar career for him as a sparkling, funny, incisive media pundit and author. I doubt if he'll even stand again for Parliament - too much like hard work.
Boris as Tory chairman -- the Jeffrey Archer de nos jours?
Damnit - I've been busy this morning as it is our year end today. Managed to get 100 quid on Gove but only after he announced, and despite mentioning it here didn't lay Boris.
If nominations have now closed, then Crabb is not a candidate, right? If so, anyone with £1000 to spare can mop up at 3% interest in two months laying him on Betfair. DYOR though.
BBC says 5 nominations. Crabb, Fox, Gove, Leadsom, May.
Murdoch...Dacre...Gove friend of both...Boris's private life...wonder if there might be ...dots to be joined?
Entirely possible. It is a tribute to Labour that they did not exploit Boris's colourful private life. Or a condemnation of their naivety: one of the two.
You have to say it's BRILLIANT what Gove has done here... I mean irrespective of what you think about the case for or against leaving the EU, the sheer evilness of this plot to use Boris for LEAVE and then knife him at the end... WOW!
Murdoch...Dacre...Gove friend of both...Boris's private life...wonder if there might be ...dots to be joined?
Entirely possible. It is a tribute to Labour that they did not exploit Boris's colourful private life. Or a condemnation of their naivety: one of the two.
Well when he stood against Ken they could hardly go back on that could they?
If nominations have now closed, then Crabb is not a candidate, right? If so, anyone with £1000 to spare can mop up at 3% interest in two months laying him on Betfair. DYOR though.
BBC says 5 nominations. Crabb, Fox, Gove, Leadsom, May.
That's good. I imagine we'll get this down to the final two after the first vote on Tuesday?
Just thinking about the tactics of the various contenders - MPs are a very sophisticated electorate, and will tactically back some candidates to knock out others.
We need to have a look at this stuff - rather than run off with the simplistic headline numbers.
Comments
I have seen the statement of the senior partner who believes this firm will do well. It is not the statement of a man about to manage redundancies.
Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?
However, when I was an employer in a small business in the 60’s & 70’s my drinking friends used to complain bitterly about the quality of school leavers.
Poor old Boris. Like Heseltine, Portillo, Ken Clarke, David Miliband, and Chukka (who withdrew but would have lost)-a long list of the leaders that never were- all undoubtedly the most credible, charismatic and electoral appealing characters that never got the prize.
May now a shoe in
Funny blog. Can u spot ur local elected glum looking cllr?
stop re-posting tweets and get out and take a look at the world.
Boris destroyed the dream he had (leadership) in pursuit of the one he didn't (Brexit).
And until one is published, the value is likely to remain on Gove.
The man who jeopardised three million jobs to get one.
And failed.
In the meantime, he's write a book.
May
Crabb
Leadsom
Gove
Fox
Any others?
Israel is important to what it means to be Jewish. One key Jewish prayer is about "Next year in Jerusalem."
IS is not important to what it means to be Muslim, however much IS would like it to be so. Most Muslims will tell you that IS is a perversion of and a total misunderstanding of Islam.
Has Charlie Falconer resigned yet?
* Apologies for the mixed metaphor. I'm not very good on sports!
Mrs May, on the other hand has been wading through effluent for six years, doing a lot of other people's dirty work and not much minding.....anyone who can take on the Police Federation in their own den can give the EU a decent run for their money, albeit with a much poorer hand than the LEAVErs would have you believe.....
Oh
El
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/28/choosing-camerons-successor-the-process-and-the-possibles/
Jeremy Duns: A Labour member has accused a Jewish MP of being part of a right-wing media plot *at the launch of their antisemitism enquiry*.
Bit like a Bullingdon night out.
Murdoch...Dacre...Gove friend of both...Boris's private life...wonder if there might be ...dots to be joined?
To everyone else who's been laying Osborne and Johnson since May last year, congratulations too!
Approximately:
Crabb - May - Gove - Leadsom - Fox
Now Boris is out does Gove have a reason to stand?
And it could be a long shot anyway - if Brexit doesn't work out well it will probably tarnish the whole Tory brand, not just the incoming PM.
Eagle
Corbyn
Tidy!
A Tory woman versus Tory woman would do wonders for the party image.
Clearly, it depends heavily on what he does and the context of the failure, but Boris could easily be seen as such a game changer.
Either way it seems a touch early to write him off.
Gah! Betting fail.
(Bit like IDS not losing a GE
ROFLMAO
We need to have a look at this stuff - rather than run off with the simplistic headline numbers.