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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reflecting on the longest w

SystemSystem Posts: 12,266
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reflecting on the longest week in politics that just about anybody can remember

On this week’s PB/Polling Matters podcast Keiran Pedley and Leo Barasi try and make sense of what has happened in the past week – as news of Theresa May’s poll lead over Boris Johnson and Michael Gove’s decision to stand for Tory leader breaks all around them.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    edited June 2016
    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/748448433745330176
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Mark Wallace

    Boris, connoisseur of Churchillian analogies, is now in danger of turning from Winston to Lord Randolph.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Michael Fabricant ✔ @Mike_Fabricant

    I am transferring my support to Michael Gove for the leadership of the @Conservatives and Prime @Number10gov.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/748448433745330176

    Ah, Cameron and Osborne in happier days. Poor them.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    Good morning, again, everyone.

    Has anything happened since I've been out (around 9am)?
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jameskirkup: This Liz Truss piece is now the funniest thing written this week so far. ("I'm backing Boris because Gove is") https://t.co/FFQL2qxuZm
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    Gove is County McCountface: there, I said it.

    Of course, were he to be elected Leader, he will have no more devoted follower than I. Behind him all the way. Yes, sireee.
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @jimwaterson: Tory MP immediately deletes tweet from 10 hours ago talking about how she was proudly backing Boris leadership bid. https://t.co/s9R5pnsJnu
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    https://twitter.com/TSEofPB/status/748448433745330176

    Revenge3 is a dish best served as an amuse bouche!
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, again, everyone.

    Has anything happened since I've been out (around 9am)?

    Gove is standing for leader
    Borish has been nuked and his supporters are drifting to Gove
    May made a marvellous speech
    Eagle is gonna stand against Corbyn
    The markets are steady
    Corbyn is going nowhere
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Paul Flynn at the despatch box. Killing it
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,364
    About 14th.

    Like Boris.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    Mr. Fenster, just a normal morning in British politics, then?
  • tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,565
    Fenster said:

    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, again, everyone.

    Has anything happened since I've been out (around 9am)?

    Gove is standing for leader
    Borish has been nuked and his supporters are drifting to Gove
    May made a marvellous speech
    Eagle is gonna stand against Corbyn
    The markets are steady
    Corbyn is going nowhere
    How did you miss the close of nominations for the Green party leadership? Are you not following politics or something? ;)
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    Will we get a competition for the order in which candidates are eliminated? Could be quite fun.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Theresa may be wishing she hadn't said no early election. If it's her versus Gove and there's the threat of an early election it would sharpen thoughts around electability which favors her. The danger for her now is the members getting complacent on electability and going gaga for Gove, the thinking man's brexiteer.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,120
    The dark art of politics......Osborne and McDonnell...in the great tradition of Mandelson, all prime manipulators.

    I always said here that Osborne would be more than happy with power without being the front man. Osborne has shown in a week just what a class act he is.

    I don't know what McDonnell's long term game is.....surely he knows that Corbyn is finished if he wins.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, again, everyone.

    Has anything happened since I've been out (around 9am)?

    Everything. Everything has happened. Again :). Honestly, I'm reluctant to walk the dogs, it's just bonkers to be British at the moment.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,889
    Looks to be a 4 horse race. May, Gove, Boris, Leadsom.

    Crabb and Fox both out to 60.0.
  • ManWithThePlanManWithThePlan Posts: 103
    I think there is a danger of us writing off Boris too early, but if he does go down, there is another big advantage. Right now the Remainers are so bitter they wish the whole UK to fail. Johnson's collapse will be cathartic for them, as he absorbs all their schadenfreude. We can then unite to make Brexit the best success we can.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Boris was shafted by Gove. Pure and simple.

    He may not even be a candidate. He likes adulation. He is not getting it.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    PCP visiting its horrible revenge on Boris.

    Brutal.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,296
    edited June 2016
    Scott_P said:

    @jameskirkup: This Liz Truss piece is now the funniest thing written this week so far. ("I'm backing Boris because Gove is") https://t.co/FFQL2qxuZm

    Is Lizz Truss the Nutter Nick of this whole episode? I do hope so.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,797
    Scott_P said:

    Paul Flynn at the despatch box. Killing it

    I wonder if he was the person referred to in http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/labour-leadership-challenge-jeremy-corbyn-reducing-senior-members-to-tears-latest-updates-a7109916.html
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    @NadineDorriesMP

    Wow! Looks like Mrs Gove is standing #Vinewearsthetrousers
  • FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    Scott_P said:

    Paul Flynn at the despatch box. Killing it

    LOL
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Good morning, again, everyone.

    Has anything happened since I've been out (around 9am)?

    Yes

    My analogy of Boris and the EURef being his Cannae and the Tory leadership race would be his Zama is looking spot on.

    Well what would you expect from PB's foremost classicist.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    fpt @MaxPB saying Gove looks untrustworthy:

    And rightly so. "Developments since Thursday."

    Two points:

    1) what developments?

    2) if two out of the three Vote Leave campaign leaders can't even work out a plan for themselves, heaven help their plan for the country.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Paristonda said:

    Theresa may be wishing she hadn't said no early election. If it's her versus Gove and there's the threat of an early election it would sharpen thoughts around electability which favors her. The danger for her now is the members getting complacent on electability and going gaga for Gove, the thinking man's brexiteer.

    I bow to no man in my admiration for Michael Gove. He's just not prime ministerial. That's my sober judgement.

    My inner bitch says "Sarah Vine as First Lady. Eww. No."
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    From Faisal Islam, it makes me want to back Boris, he's clearly a Remainer

    My sense is core vote leavers wanted some absolute assurances from Boris on EU exit strategy - that's some of what's behind Leadsom, gove
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    So, Boris has discovered just how brutal the establishment elite can be.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    edited June 2016
    Mr. M, the first lady is Her Most Britannic Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.

    Mr. Eagles, after Zama, Hannibal became ruler of Carthage.

    That, and missing a decade and a half of marauding around Italy, does not make you the site's foremost classicist.

    Edited extra bit: Mr. Eagles (2), I'd be wary of trusting Faisal Islam's 'sense', given he thought Warsi's 'defection' was a major story and he apparently described her as the most powerful Muslim in British politics (news to Khan, I'm sure).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Get in

    Owen Smith plans to launch Labour leadership challenge

    Ex-shadow work and pensions secretary has collected several nominations putting Angela Eagle’s prospects in doubt

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/30/owen-smith-plans-launch-labour-leadership-challenge?CMP=share_btn_tw
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    As for Gove, I think he may be a tiny bit psychotic. I would not want him anywhere near the nuclear trigger.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,654
    If anyone wants decisive action, then I reckon a vote for May is a terrible action - she will delay and fudge and umm and arr more than the rest of them put together.

    Probably what you lot want though :p
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Get in

    Owen Smith plans to launch Labour leadership challenge

    Ex-shadow work and pensions secretary has collected several nominations putting Angela Eagle’s prospects in doubt

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/30/owen-smith-plans-launch-labour-leadership-challenge?CMP=share_btn_tw

    Blimey, some actual good news for Labour.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Morris_Dancer said:

    Mr. M, the first lady is Her Most Britannic Majesty Queen Elizabeth II.

    Mr. Eagles, after Zama, Hannibal became ruler of Carthage.

    That, and missing a decade and a half of marauding around Italy, does not make you the site's foremost classicist.

    Mr Dancer, I believe that this is the first time I've been forced to disagree with you. A sad day. The Queen is our monarch and as such transcends tawdry politics.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,334
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From Faisal Islam, it makes me want to back Boris, he's clearly a Remainer

    My sense is core vote leavers wanted some absolute assurances from Boris on EU exit strategy - that's some of what's behind Leadsom, gove

    Yes, but he's also beholden to all of the Leave guff. My guess, and it is just a guess, is that Gove went to both Boris and Theresa and asked for assurances that they would seek restrictions on free movement even if it meant not being in the free market, both probably said no and now he has decided to run as a standard bearer for the anti-immigration mob.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,889
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From Faisal Islam, it makes me want to back Boris, he's clearly a Remainer

    My sense is core vote leavers wanted some absolute assurances from Boris on EU exit strategy - that's some of what's behind Leadsom, gove

    If Boris is going to stay in this race and remain competitive he is going to have to make some assurances to the Brexiteers. Big speech coming up from him now.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Flynn "I have been a backbencher for 26 years, out of choice, not just my choice but of the five leaders too" good gag
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Get in

    Owen Smith plans to launch Labour leadership challenge

    Ex-shadow work and pensions secretary has collected several nominations putting Angela Eagle’s prospects in doubt

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/30/owen-smith-plans-launch-labour-leadership-challenge?CMP=share_btn_tw

    'Get in' = how I feel as well. I don't want Angela Eagle as the answer to Labour's question.

    Also, I wonder is there anyone who feels sorry for Boris? It must feel like the whole world is laughing at him right now.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    Mr. M, the First Lady is wife of the head of state.

    We agree the Queen transcends tawdry politics.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,894
    Pulpstar said:

    If anyone wants decisive action, then I reckon a vote for May is a terrible action - she will delay and fudge and umm and arr more than the rest of them put together.

    Probably what you lot want though :p

    I’d really like to hear the views of someone, say a retired chief constable, who has had to negotiate with Mrs May!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    JohnO said:

    Gove is County McCountface: there, I said it.

    Of course, were he to be elected Leader, he will have no more devoted follower than I. Behind him all the way. Yes, sireee.

    He's made my morning.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Much keener on Owen Smith than Eagle.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    Assuming no more runners, IMO this market should be priced;

    Theresa May 1/1 50%
    Michael Gove 6/4 40%
    Anyone else 9/1 10%
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    Miss Apocalypse, no.

    I think almost everyone believes he only campaigned for Leave as a means to becoming leader.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Get in

    Owen Smith plans to launch Labour leadership challenge

    Ex-shadow work and pensions secretary has collected several nominations putting Angela Eagle’s prospects in doubt

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/30/owen-smith-plans-launch-labour-leadership-challenge?CMP=share_btn_tw

    'Get in' = how I feel as well. I don't want Angela Eagle as the answer to Labour's question.

    Also, I wonder is there anyone who feels sorry for Boris? It must feel like the whole world is laughing at him right now.
    My position might be coloured by my 33/1 bet slip on Owen Smith as Corbyn's successor.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    @NadineDorriesMP

    Wow! Looks like Mrs Gove is standing #Vinewearsthetrousers

    We need Mrs Bone as well now but my money is on Mrs. Proudie!
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    Mr. Pong, has Boris lost that much support to Gove?
  • CyclefreeCyclefree Posts: 25,503
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From Faisal Islam, it makes me want to back Boris, he's clearly a Remainer

    My sense is core vote leavers wanted some absolute assurances from Boris on EU exit strategy - that's some of what's behind Leadsom, gove

    Hello - have sent you private email.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    PlatoSaid said:

    Flynn "I have been a backbencher for 26 years, out of choice, not just my choice but of the five leaders too" good gag

    Arf – self-deprecating politician with a sense of humour – he’ll go far.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Raab behind Gove
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    The_Apocalypse said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Get in

    Owen Smith plans to launch Labour leadership challenge

    Ex-shadow work and pensions secretary has collected several nominations putting Angela Eagle’s prospects in doubt

    http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/jun/30/owen-smith-plans-launch-labour-leadership-challenge?CMP=share_btn_tw

    'Get in' = how I feel as well. I don't want Angela Eagle as the answer to Labour's question.

    Also, I wonder is there anyone who feels sorry for Boris? It must feel like the whole world is laughing at him right now.
    Boris will be fine. He's that sort of guy isn't he? He will make a fortune, even if it's only on the after-dinner/lecture tour circuit. He'll just be "Fiddlesticks and balderdash" and slope off somewhere else.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Beth Rigby ‏@BethRigby 6m6 minutes ago
    Two winners from Gove bid. @TheresaMay2016 as #Brexiteers split and @George_Osborne; he now has his dog in the race

    steve hawkes ‏@steve_hawkes 1h1 hour ago
    Nicky Morgan has pulled out of race for No10 - friends say
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @tnewtondunn: Dominic Raab also defects from Boris to Gove. He wrote a piece in today's @TheSun, entitled 'Why Boris has the Heineken effect'.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Cyclefree said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    From Faisal Islam, it makes me want to back Boris, he's clearly a Remainer

    My sense is core vote leavers wanted some absolute assurances from Boris on EU exit strategy - that's some of what's behind Leadsom, gove

    Hello - have sent you private email.
    Got it. Has been a tres hectic morning, will reply in a bit.
  • LennonLennon Posts: 1,784
    Is there something even more Machiavellian going on?

    Gove wants a Leaver, doesn't trust Boris, and doesn't want to do it himself (too self aware of his own negatives perhaps). He knows that Boris v Leadsom means that Boris takes all the Leaver vote. He 'stands' and causes Boris to not stand. First round Baron (or Fox) loses out and you get to see where everyone is relative to one another.

    Gove then steps down and backs Leadsom (the Brexiteers May). Boris is shut out and you get May, Crabb, Leadsom in the final 3 - with a chance of the final 2 being Leadsom and Crabb as May loses out as the 'middle' candidate...
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I know it's gauche to blow your own trumpet, but...

    http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/02/23/the-impact-of-the-euref-onbetting-on-the-next-con-leader/

    I've given some pretty ropey tips this year, but this thread from February still looks quite good.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,078
    According to the BBC, May claims triumph over Boris' desire for aquatic prelates to combat disorder:
    "Norman says Mrs May had done a "hatchet job" on Mr Johnson, particularly when she raised the issue of his negotiations with the EU, which led to him bringing back water canons to London which she then vetoed the use of on the streets of the capital."

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/uk-politics-36570120
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Raab 'Boris looked like he was backsliding'

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    Lennon said:

    Is there something even more Machiavellian going on?...
    .

    Yes. A combination of Boris making a complete horlicks of team building etc in his campaign team and in settling key principles. Added to Osborne whispering in Gove's ear "go for it" and Sarah Vine encouraging her husband to stick to his principles.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,822
    Lennon said:

    Is there something even more Machiavellian going on?

    Gove wants a Leaver, doesn't trust Boris, and doesn't want to do it himself (too self aware of his own negatives perhaps). He knows that Boris v Leadsom means that Boris takes all the Leaver vote. He 'stands' and causes Boris to not stand. First round Baron (or Fox) loses out and you get to see where everyone is relative to one another.

    Gove then steps down and backs Leadsom (the Brexiteers May). Boris is shut out and you get May, Crabb, Leadsom in the final 3 - with a chance of the final 2 being Leadsom and Crabb as May loses out as the 'middle' candidate...

    I doubt if it's as simple as that.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pong said:

    Assuming no more runners, IMO this market should be priced;

    Theresa May 1/1 50%
    Michael Gove 6/4 40%
    Anyone else 9/1 10%

    Thought: Is Gove just in there to clear out Boris for Leadsom?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    Raab "Gove fighting as the underdog, for the underdogs"

    And covertly digs at *Tories image as Nasty Party*
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @rupertmurdoch: Congratulations Michael Gove. Friends always knew his principles would overcome his personal friendships.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Lennon said:

    Is there something even more Machiavellian going on?

    Gove wants a Leaver, doesn't trust Boris, and doesn't want to do it himself (too self aware of his own negatives perhaps). He knows that Boris v Leadsom means that Boris takes all the Leaver vote. He 'stands' and causes Boris to not stand. First round Baron (or Fox) loses out and you get to see where everyone is relative to one another.

    Gove then steps down and backs Leadsom (the Brexiteers May). Boris is shut out and you get May, Crabb, Leadsom in the final 3 - with a chance of the final 2 being Leadsom and Crabb as May loses out as the 'middle' candidate...

    I doubt if it's as simple as that.
    :)
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    edited June 2016
    PlatoSaid said:

    Raab behind Gove

    He's one of Gove's junior Ministers at Justice. Not sure, though, how this will go down in the constituency (which of course voted 60-40 for Remain, albeit Raab's own campaign was a model of non-partisanship)
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 5,385
    Morning's work all to pot. Oh well, might as well stick around till 11 and see what Boris says.
  • JonathanDJonathanD Posts: 2,400
    SouthamObserver said:

    So, Boris has discovered just how brutal the establishment elite can be.

    Boris not doing details and not planning things through. Nothing new there.
  • TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,683
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Beth Rigby ‏@BethRigby 6m6 minutes ago
    Two winners from Gove bid. @TheresaMay2016 as #Brexiteers split and @George_Osborne; he now has his dog in the race

    steve hawkes ‏@steve_hawkes 1h1 hour ago
    Nicky Morgan has pulled out of race for No10 - friends say

    She's got friends?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    What does concern me is the prospect of Osborne having any role in the next Govt.
    Mrs May clearly made that impossible by ruling out the emergency budget. Andrea Leadsom was very firm on that nonsense in the referendum so I cannot see her aligning with Osborne.
    Crabb and Fox probably have no problem with Osborne, indeed Fox has been friends with Osborne in the past. So where do Boris and Gove stand?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,783
    PlatoSaid said:

    Raab "Gove fighting as the underdog, for the underdogs"

    And then that Tweet from Rupert Murdoch.

    You have just got to love the establishment elite.

  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @DPJHodges: So now even Gove supporters briefing they don't believe Boris wants Brexit. Jesus.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Lennon said:

    Is there something even more Machiavellian going on?

    Gove wants a Leaver, doesn't trust Boris, and doesn't want to do it himself (too self aware of his own negatives perhaps). He knows that Boris v Leadsom means that Boris takes all the Leaver vote. He 'stands' and causes Boris to not stand. First round Baron (or Fox) loses out and you get to see where everyone is relative to one another.

    Gove then steps down and backs Leadsom (the Brexiteers May). Boris is shut out and you get May, Crabb, Leadsom in the final 3 - with a chance of the final 2 being Leadsom and Crabb as May loses out as the 'middle' candidate...

    I doubt if it's as simple as that.
    Isn't it simple? Boris could not win because he carries the Hestletine black spot of the death of PM. For some reason Gove does not, therefore is a better bet for the Vote Leave tribe.

    That's it.

  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    TudorRose said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Beth Rigby ‏@BethRigby 6m6 minutes ago
    Two winners from Gove bid. @TheresaMay2016 as #Brexiteers split and @George_Osborne; he now has his dog in the race

    steve hawkes ‏@steve_hawkes 1h1 hour ago
    Beth Rigby Retweeted
    steve hawkes ‏@steve_hawkes 1h1 hour ago

    Nicky Morgan has pulled out of race for No10 - friends say
    has pulled out of race for No10 - friends say

    She's got friends?
    Nicky Morgan has friends in other parties.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    PlatoSaid said:

    Raab "Gove fighting as the underdog, for the underdogs"

    And covertly digs at *Tories image as Nasty Party*

    Pass the proverbial sick-bag.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2016
    Paul Goodman, editor of ConservativeHome, on why Michael Gove abandoned Boris Johnson.

    Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) - Gove's decision 1) He came to believe that @BorisJohnson was prepared to backtrack on Brexit.

    Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) - Gove's decision 2) It's claimed that Johnson refused to allow his Daily Telegraph column text to go through a campaign approval process.

    Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) - Gove's decision 3) The Justice Secretary & supporters concluded that Johnson was unlikely to defeat May.
  • MontyHallMontyHall Posts: 226
    edited June 2016
    Lennon said:

    Is there something even more Machiavellian going on?

    Gove wants a Leaver, doesn't trust Boris, and doesn't want to do it himself (too self aware of his own negatives perhaps). He knows that Boris v Leadsom means that Boris takes all the Leaver vote. He 'stands' and causes Boris to not stand. First round Baron (or Fox) loses out and you get to see where everyone is relative to one another.

    Gove then steps down and backs Leadsom (the Brexiteers May). Boris is shut out and you get May, Crabb, Leadsom in the final 3 - with a chance of the final 2 being Leadsom and Crabb as May loses out as the 'middle' candidate...

    ...the host opens door three to reveal a series of carefully selected political tweets

    Do I switch?
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,769
    Raab C Nesbitt tells Boris to beat it.
  • TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 43,112
    Richard_Nabavi said:

    Lennon said:

    Is there something even more Machiavellian going on?

    Gove wants a Leaver, doesn't trust Boris, and doesn't want to do it himself (too self aware of his own negatives perhaps). He knows that Boris v Leadsom means that Boris takes all the Leaver vote. He 'stands' and causes Boris to not stand. First round Baron (or Fox) loses out and you get to see where everyone is relative to one another.

    Gove then steps down and backs Leadsom (the Brexiteers May). Boris is shut out and you get May, Crabb, Leadsom in the final 3 - with a chance of the final 2 being Leadsom and Crabb as May loses out as the 'middle' candidate...

    I doubt if it's as simple as that.
    LOL
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    What does concern me is the prospect of Osborne having any role in the next Govt.
    Mrs May clearly made that impossible by ruling out the emergency budget. Andrea Leadsom was very firm on that nonsense in the referendum so I cannot see her aligning with Osborne.
    Crabb and Fox probably have no problem with Osborne, indeed Fox has been friends with Osborne in the past. So where do Boris and Gove stand?

    Gove stands on whatever will make him PM. He and his wife are a team. Like the Blairs and the Clintons.

    Despite his appearances, he is the most scheming of the lot. I'd say May is the least.

    Gove shafted Cameron, long time friend and Boris, who thought, stupidly, that Gove was on his side.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,295
    Scott_P said:

    @rupertmurdoch: Congratulations Michael Gove. Friends always knew his principles would overcome his personal friendships.

    "And my early investment may strike luckier than I could have ever thought possible".

    Not if I have my way, it won't.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Cough. Last night I mooted the possibility that Boris might not make the ballot.

    Now looking prophetic?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    JonathanD said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    So, Boris has discovered just how brutal the establishment elite can be.

    Boris not doing details and not planning things through. Nothing new there.
    I gave him the benefit of the doubt on Monday with his DT article. He's been invisible on the TV - strategic mistake to be out of picture for so long. The Sun backed him on Tuesday FFS. And now it's Thursday.

    Labour must be wondering what they put in the water at CCHQ - we don't fanny about.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,180
    Scott_P said:

    @rupertmurdoch: Congratulations Michael Gove. Friends always knew his principles would overcome his personal friendships.

    hahahahahahahaha! that's a really good one from rupert!
  • MattWMattW Posts: 24,364
    Since we have had umpteen Labour MPs in the Shadow cabinet for a couple of days to a couple of months each, I am wondering whether this affects pensions etc.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    @TheScreamingEagles Oh, I didn't know that LOL.

    @John_M Yes, but hasn't Boris dreamed of being PM and has had a rivalry with Cameron since his Oxford days? Boris wanted to be PM so much he jumped ship to Leave and pretty much decided to go for Leave in a ploy to out-maneuver Cameron. And now he's been out-smarted by Michael Gove (and probably George Osborne as well).
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Jobabob said:

    Cough. Last night I mooted the possibility that Boris might not make the ballot.

    Now looking prophetic?

    Some of us have been predicting it for months, nay, years.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    out of meeting...wtf

    et tu Michael


    hahahahahahahahahahahahahahahahha

    poor old madnad

    Nadine Dorries ‏@NadineDorriesMP · 4m4 minutes ago
    Gove didn't get the big job Mrs Vine wanted for him - Boris doesn't do bribes

    Nadine Dorries ‏@NadineDorriesMP · 3m3 minutes ago
    Conservative party members have no forgiveness for opportunism and treachery - those days are gone

  • DecrepitJohnLDecrepitJohnL Posts: 13,300
    SimonStClare said:

    Paul Goodman, editor of ConservativeHome, on why Michael Gove abandoned Boris Johnson.

    Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) - Gove's decision 1) He came to believe that @BorisJohnson was prepared to backtrack on Brexit.

    Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) - Gove's decision 2) It's claimed that Johnson refused to allow his Daily Telegraph column text to go through a campaign approval process.

    Paul Goodman (@PaulGoodmanCH) - Gove's decision 3) The Justice Secretary & supporters concluded that Johnson was unlikely to defeat May.

    Didn't Gove stay behind at Number 10 for talks with the Prime Minister after the post-Brexit Cabinet? Where does that fit in?
  • mattmatt Posts: 3,789
    It's genuinely useful reading comments here. It gives me a real feel for what Ultras think and believe and it's one that is otherwise risk missing. Choices have consequences.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    How essential is it for city of London to have "passporting"? Any city experts please not mourning remainders.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    I am definitely a member of PB Tories 4 Boris.

    Come on Boris!!

    #bridiot
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    TudorRose said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Beth Rigby ‏@BethRigby 6m6 minutes ago
    Two winners from Gove bid. @TheresaMay2016 as #Brexiteers split and @George_Osborne; he now has his dog in the race

    steve hawkes ‏@steve_hawkes 1h1 hour ago
    Nicky Morgan has pulled out of race for No10 - friends say

    She's got friends?
    I find her incredibly off-putting on the TV. Those unblinking doll eyes and expressionless botoxed face. Even John Redwood seemed more human.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,889
    I've bailed out of my Boris position! Cost me £4 in total.

    Hard to bet against the opinion of PB shrewdies.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 120,409
    Well time to burn that 66/1 betting slip

    Jeremy Hunt backing Theresa May.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    If Boris is to have any chance he will have to promise Australian points system on immigration and that securing control over our borders is higher priority than singe market at the negotiations.
  • The_ApocalypseThe_Apocalypse Posts: 7,830
    surbiton said:

    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    What does concern me is the prospect of Osborne having any role in the next Govt.
    Mrs May clearly made that impossible by ruling out the emergency budget. Andrea Leadsom was very firm on that nonsense in the referendum so I cannot see her aligning with Osborne.
    Crabb and Fox probably have no problem with Osborne, indeed Fox has been friends with Osborne in the past. So where do Boris and Gove stand?

    Gove stands on whatever will make him PM. He and his wife are a team. Like the Blairs and the Clintons.

    Despite his appearances, he is the most scheming of the lot. I'd say May is the least.

    Gove shafted Cameron, long time friend and Boris, who thought, stupidly, that Gove was on his side.
    I totally agree. And Sarah Vine is absolutely awful, if anyone thought Cherie Blair was bad, Sarah Vine is X100000 worse.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    TCPoliticalBetting said:

    Lennon said:

    Is there something even more Machiavellian going on?...
    .

    Yes. A combination of Boris making a complete horlicks of team building etc in his campaign team and in settling key principles. Added to Osborne whispering in Gove's ear "go for it" and Sarah Vine encouraging her husband to stick to his principles.
    You mean the principle of becoming the Prime Minister. From a Labour perspective, I would prefer Gove to either May or Boris. May would be the more dangerous.
This discussion has been closed.