Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.
He has never had a run at being leader. If the next leader fails (which is not impossible in the rocky seas ahead), commeth the hour commeth the Boris to save the Tory party.
In the meantime, he's write a book.
I think that's right. I see a stellar career for him as a sparkling, funny, incisive media pundit and author. I doubt if he'll even stand again for Parliament - too much like hard work.
Boris as Tory chairman -- the Jeffrey Archer de nos jours?
So Boris out, hard to see past May now especially given her convincing lead in the members' poll yesterday and Gove's previous statements that he 'is not up to the job'
Just heard Theresa May on the radio saying there will definitely be Brexit and definitely no second referendum. What a fine example of paraleipsis! She had probably just put the phone down from conferring with Angela Merkel on how to keep Britain in the EU.
As for Gove, I suppose someone might be playing 11-dimensional chess, but it seems extremely surprising that an ambitious wannabe Macchiavellian like Sarah Vine didn't realise David Cameron would resign if he lost the referendum. It was obvious he would.
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.
Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
I doubt it, Mr. Bob. I don't even think that sending the letter actually needs a vote in parliament, though I am sure there will be a debate. I also doubt that there will be enough, if any, Conservative rebels if a push does come to a shove. On top of which there are the Ulster Unionists and who knows what the Labour position will be, if they even have one.
So Boris out, hard to see past May now especially given her convincing lead in the members' poll yesterday and Gove's previous statements that he 'is not up to the job'
If there's one final, final twist in all of this it could be Andrea Leadsom swooping in from nowhere?
Did the usual channels arrange todays entertainment to be provided by the Conservative leadership election in the morning and the Labour leadership election in the afternoon?
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.
Why wouldn't he go all the way?
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
I don't even think that sending the letter actually needs a vote in parliament, though I am sure there will be a debate. I also doubt that there will be enough, if any, Conservative rebels if a push does come to a shove. On top of which there are the Ulster Unionists and who knows what the Labour position will be, if they even have one.
There wouldn't need to be many more anti-A50 Tory rebels than pro-A50 Labour rebels.
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.
Why wouldn't he go all the way?
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?
Because he has told us that he does not have the qualities required for the top job?
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.
Why wouldn't he go all the way?
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.
Why wouldn't he go all the way?
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?
Because he has told us that he does not have the qualities required for the top job?
Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
Been getting very little work done. Not because of worries about the economy, but because politics is frenetic and crammed with more dramatic twists than the best TV series.
Incidentally, no release date yet but it's looking promising for Explorations (sci-fi anthology in which I have a short story) to be released this year. Also, still possible Kingdom Asunder (novel set in the Bane of Souls/Journey to Altmortis world) will also be out in 2016.
Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
So Boris out, hard to see past May now especially given her convincing lead in the members' poll yesterday and Gove's previous statements that he 'is not up to the job'
If there's one final, final twist in all of this it could be Andrea Leadsom swooping in from nowhere?
There is bound to be a Leave candidate in the final two, Leadsom has more appeal than Fox and Gove and could be that candidate. Though Yougov showed May would still beat Leadsom with members
Did the usual channels arrange todays entertainment to be provided by the Conservative leadership election in the morning and the Labour leadership election in the afternoon?
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.
Why wouldn't he go all the way?
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.
Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.
Why wouldn't he go all the way?
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.
Why wouldn't he go all the way?
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.
James Landale @BBCJLandale 3h3 hours ago Important: Theresa May ditches plan to pull UK out of ECHR - says it divides people & has no parliamentary majority
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.
Why wouldn't he go all the way?
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.
Why would he not want the leadership?
He's said it. A lot.
A coronation must now be a non-zero probability. Very unlikely, but not impossible.
So Boris out, hard to see past May now especially given her convincing lead in the members' poll yesterday and Gove's previous statements that he 'is not up to the job'
If there's one final, final twist in all of this it could be Andrea Leadsom swooping in from nowhere?
There is bound to be a Leave candidate in the final two, Leadsom has more appeal than Fox and Gove and could be that candidate. Though Yougov showed May would still beat Leadsom with members
Leadership contests can take on a life of their own though. You don't know what might happen on the hustings and of course they'll be a TV debate on Question Time at some point...
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.
Why wouldn't he go all the way?
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.
Why would he not want the leadership?
He's said it. A lot.
You don't seriously think that's an impediment do you ?
Even though I had Boris as a -ve I don't like him pulling out as it shortens Leadsome. He's cost me probably £40 directly and indirectly this morning.
Leadsom is neck and neck with Gove for second favourite. Crabb and Fox are outsiders.
Bettingwise Leadsome my worst result. Politically she'd make the next GE very very interesting.
At the mo its looking like Gove vs May in the final. I like Ms Leadsom, but I'm not confident she can make the final two.
One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
I *think* that if you invoke Article 50 this December (2016), and then take exactly 2 years negotiating, then you have to pay EU Fees in 2016, 2017 and 2018 (when you are still a member), but not in 2019 (As you would have left).
Conversely, if you invoke in January 2017 and take exactly 2 years then you would have to pay in 2019 as well so there is an incentive to invoke at the end of the year.
What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.
Why wouldn't he go all the way?
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?
He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.
Why would he not want the leadership?
He's said it. A lot.
You don't seriously think that's an impediment do you ?
The manner in which is has said it is why he won't get it or doesn't want it. He has previously said that he isn't up to the job. How will that play with the voters if he becomes leader and Labour have sorted themselves out?
So Boris out, hard to see past May now especially given her convincing lead in the members' poll yesterday and Gove's previous statements that he 'is not up to the job'
If there's one final, final twist in all of this it could be Andrea Leadsom swooping in from nowhere?
There is bound to be a Leave candidate in the final two, Leadsom has more appeal than Fox and Gove and could be that candidate. Though Yougov showed May would still beat Leadsom with members
Leadership contests can take on a life of their own though. You don't know what might happen on the hustings and of course they'll be a TV debate on Question Time at some point...
Only if it gets that far. Gove/Leadsome might have had enough of live debates and campaigning. May, on the other hand, has had a few weeks off!
Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?
Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
That's true as well, another reason why the 5/2 on Q4 2016 is maybe too short.
James Landale @BBCJLandale 3h3 hours ago Important: Theresa May ditches plan to pull UK out of ECHR - says it divides people & has no parliamentary majority
Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?
ECHR membership was not put to a referendum of the people. Plus she just said "brexit means brexit"
Comments
No longer a theory.
Can the news stop for five minutes must wash hair
Mr. Mortimer, I know that feeling. Didn't even back my own 70/1 winning tip on Button winning the 2009 title.
We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?
Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.
Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?
https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469
http://www.conservativehome.com/thetorydiary/2011/09/toby-young-toadmeister-has-bet-15000-that-boris-johnson-will-be-tory-leader-by-2018.html
Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).
Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.
http://www.thetimes.co.uk/edition/comment/the-anger-is-so-great-we-must-have-a-new-vote-wx6s953z7
What a shit.
Just heard Theresa May on the radio saying there will definitely be Brexit and definitely no second referendum. What a fine example of paraleipsis! She had probably just put the phone down from conferring with Angela Merkel on how to keep Britain in the EU.
As for Gove, I suppose someone might be playing 11-dimensional chess, but it seems extremely surprising that an ambitious wannabe Macchiavellian like Sarah Vine didn't realise David Cameron would resign if he lost the referendum. It was obvious he would.
Has she launched ?
When is the Green leadership election?
So, what is this Boris scandal ?
He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.
Why would he drop out?
Politics 101
That said, Corbyn is kryptonite for Labour.
Mr. D, thanks for that extra info.
Been getting very little work done. Not because of worries about the economy, but because politics is frenetic and crammed with more dramatic twists than the best TV series.
Incidentally, no release date yet but it's looking promising for Explorations (sci-fi anthology in which I have a short story) to be released this year. Also, still possible Kingdom Asunder (novel set in the Bane of Souls/Journey to Altmortis world) will also be out in 2016.
"Also, still possible Kingdom Asunder (novel set in the Bane of Souls/Journey to Altmortis world) will also be out in 2016."
Huzzah!
Something to do with a Scottish lass according to Bunco.
*innocent face*
The Establishment is truly brutal.
James Landale @BBCJLandale 3h3 hours ago
Important: Theresa May ditches plan to pull UK out of ECHR - says it divides people & has no parliamentary majority
One wrinkle, there were reports that gov't whips (Cameron and Osborne) were backing Ms May , and Mr Gove is supposed to be their pal. Will her support move to Gove?
How many are backing May or Leadsom at the moment?
How many are behind Crabb, Fox or Gove?
All woman shortlist going to the members?
But with Corbyn in place it doesn't really matter.
Conversely, if you invoke in January 2017 and take exactly 2 years then you would have to pay in 2019 as well so there is an incentive to invoke at the end of the year.
More dead nuns, though.
Anyway, I must be off. Given what happened the last time I was away, one shudders to think what may transpire in my absence.
PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.
I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove