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  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,157

    Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?

    Yes, fig leaf on free movement.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    *Its*, rather.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Lennon said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    I *think* that if you invoke Article 50 this December (2016), and then take exactly 2 years negotiating, then you have to pay EU Fees in 2016, 2017 and 2018 (when you are still a member), but not in 2019 (As you would have left).

    Conversely, if you invoke in January 2017 and take exactly 2 years then you would have to pay in 2019 as well so there is an incentive to invoke at the end of the year.
    I don't think we would be paying for a whole year just for one month. I don't think it works that way. Is it not on VAT receipts ?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    JohnO said:

    Jobabob said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?


    Something to do with a Scottish lass according to Bunco.
    Could he have tried "to form a coalition" with Ruth !!!!

    Ruth isn't that way inclined. Miss Sturgeon perhaps????
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,439

    I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.

    PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.

    I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove

    They did have that meeting. Remember !
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,157

    I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.

    PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.

    I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove

    Team Gove will take us out of the single market. How will you square that circle?
  • TheWhiteRabbitTheWhiteRabbit Posts: 12,442
    RobD said:

    Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?

    ECHR membership was not put to a referendum of the people. Plus she just said "brexit means brexit"
    She thinks she's going to win. People who don't think they'll win can say what they like.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Pulpstar said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pong said:

    MaxPB said:

    Pong said:

    MaxPB said:

    What would be a decent interval for Gove to withdraw and endorse May?

    Think we are seeing a Michael Howard style coronation being orchestrated. The Tory party can have amazing audacity (why did i doubt that).

    Poor Boris career ended the day he accidentally won the referendum he wanted to lose well. There is nothing for him now - even Heseltine has his various regeneration successes and stellar business career to look back on. A full Sebastain Flyte style future beckons for the blond one.

    He'll knock Leadsom and Fox out then drop out leaving her to go up against Crabb.
    Why wouldn't he go all the way?

    He's likely to be very competitive vs. May on the membership ballot.

    Why would he drop out?
    He doesn't want the leadership, just to keep Boris out.
    Why would he not want the leadership?
    He's said it. A lot.
    You don't seriously think that's an impediment do you ?
    Actually in Gove's case I think I do. He didn't say "I have no ambitions in that direction but if one were to be persuaded to stand..." and all that bullshit. He said, on more than one occasion that he did not have the personal qualities and skill set required for the top job.

    What of his personal qualities and skills have changed? As I said up thread, all the May team have to do is dig out those old interviews and run them.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Geez, pop out for lunch and yet more developments - Boris not standing, what a humiliation for him. I would consider voting for May in GE depending on what comes out of Brexit (and my constituency is a labour tory marginal so my vote counts!). If it's Gove I would vote Labour. Gone back on his word, so no better or more trustworthy than any other Tory that's been berated for that, including Boris and Cameron. A true brexiteer so fear he really would cut off single market access in order to cut immigration.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.
    Go on .... give us a clue.
    Would you trust him to drive you home after a party? That was Rudd's most pointed jibe.

    No idea what the scandal is though, except Bunnco keeps hinting it involves Scotland.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,138

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.
    :)
  • rural_voterrural_voter Posts: 2,038

    May ditches another manifesto pledge.

    James Landale ‏@BBCJLandale 3h3 hours ago
    Important: Theresa May ditches plan to pull UK out of ECHR - says it divides people & has no parliamentary majority

    Good. Sanity has prevailed.
    But ECHR is outside the EU? (Council for Europe).

    Charter of Fundamental Rights and ECJ are the troublesome ones.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,495
    MaxPB said:

    I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.

    PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.

    I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove

    Team Gove will take us out of the single market. How will you square that circle?
    A compromise will be found. Realpolitik meets RealEconomics.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,067
    Time to ditch the photo that helped stop Boris...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,572

    I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.

    PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.

    I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove

    :o
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    nunu said:

    How essential is it for city of London to have "passporting"? Any city experts please not mourning remainders.

    Nice but not essential
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,088
    felix said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.
    :)
    'He's not the man you want to drive you home at the end of the evening'.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,572
    felix said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.
    :)
    Frustrating when people parade around the fact they know the juicy details :(
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.
    Go on .... give us a clue.
    If there was any dirt on Boris, they'd have splashed it in the papers during the referendum. This is just smearing.
    Not if the papers were for Leave.
    The Mail on Sunday would have. They have nothing, Boris knows the out support will flock to Gove.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,495
    I feel ever more confident that one day Osborne will be Tory leader
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.
    The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.
    Go on .... give us a clue.
    If there was any dirt on Boris, they'd have splashed it in the papers during the referendum. This is just smearing.
    Not if the papers were for Leave.
    Not all of them were.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,088

    I feel ever more confident that one day Osborne will be Tory leader

    Darth Gideon :lol:
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    You've got to feel sorry for the podcast people -- the longest week just got longer.

    It's only Thursday...
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    I feel ever more confident that one day Osborne will be Tory leader

    Maybe in opposition as a stop gap.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,138
    Jobabob said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?


    Something to do with a Scottish lass according to Bunco.
    May was wearing tartan this morning - the plot thickens!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,572
    edited June 2016

    RobD said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.
    Go on .... give us a clue.
    If there was any dirt on Boris, they'd have splashed it in the papers during the referendum. This is just smearing.
    Not if the papers were for Leave.
    Not all of them were.

    But maybe not all of them had the details :p
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,439

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.
    The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.
    Reminds me of the IRA non negotiations.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,018
    Okay, here's my order or preference for PM in descending order: May > Leadsom > Fox > Gove > Crabb.
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Ms Rudd wasn’t finished with Mr Johnson yet. “Boris is the life and soul of the party,” she snorted, in her concluding statement. “But he isn’t the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening!”

    What did she mean by that ?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,088

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.
    The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.
    Who remembers "Robot Wars"?

    BREXITEERS, STAND BY....

    3...

    2...

    1...

    NEGOTIATE!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,157

    MaxPB said:

    I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.

    PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.

    I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove

    Team Gove will take us out of the single market. How will you square that circle?
    A compromise will be found. Realpolitik meets RealEconomics.
    The 180 waiting days are the compromise I've heard. I don't know if Gove will accept that, May probably would. Gove has said he would take the UK out of the single market on a number od occasions and has said he is not up to being leader/PM. He is not the right person to take us forwards.
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,138
    JohnO said:

    Jobabob said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?


    Something to do with a Scottish lass according to Bunco.
    Could he have tried "to form a coalition" with Ruth !!!!
    Ruth is very broad-minded I'm sure but draws the line at men - however wet they may be.
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.
    The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.
    As we simultaneously negotiate with the rest of the world.
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,277
    edited June 2016
    It's well known that Gove and Osborne have long been friends and allies: ditto that both, but in particular Gove, dislike May, so such rumours must contain a grain of 'instinctive truth' (if such a phrase has any meaning).

    But I'm warning soulmate TSE: don't even think about it.
  • JonCisBackJonCisBack Posts: 911
    Been in a meeting for a couple of hours - did i miss anything...?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    So then... #1 May and Mutti the matriarchal arch pragmatists do a deal on Free Movement. #2 A50 never invoked. #3 Britain Brexit's in nothing but name at the next Treaty change. ? All we need now is terminology to describe our non Brexit Brexit. What do people think ?
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,448

    Been in a meeting for a couple of hours - did i miss anything...?

    Just the usual.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,572

    Been in a meeting for a couple of hours - did i miss anything...?

    TSE's AV thread has been delayed again due to events....
  • mr-claypolemr-claypole Posts: 218
    tlg86 said:

    Okay, here's my order or preference for PM in descending order: May > Leadsom > Fox > Gove > Crabb.

    blimey i would rather have a Ferret than a Fox
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,035
    surbiton said:

    Lennon said:

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    I *think* that if you invoke Article 50 this December (2016), and then take exactly 2 years negotiating, then you have to pay EU Fees in 2016, 2017 and 2018 (when you are still a member), but not in 2019 (As you would have left).

    Conversely, if you invoke in January 2017 and take exactly 2 years then you would have to pay in 2019 as well so there is an incentive to invoke at the end of the year.
    I don't think we would be paying for a whole year just for one month. I don't think it works that way. Is it not on VAT receipts ?
    Probably something else to be sorted. I wonder how much of the discussions will be in the public domain?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451
    RobD said:

    Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?

    ECHR membership was not put to a referendum of the people. Plus she just said "brexit means brexit"

    But what does Brexit actually mean? :-)

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    surbiton said:

    Ms Rudd wasn’t finished with Mr Johnson yet. “Boris is the life and soul of the party,” she snorted, in her concluding statement. “But he isn’t the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening!”

    What did she mean by that ?

    If you've got some dirt, spill it.

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.
    Go on .... give us a clue.
    Would you trust him to drive you home after a party? That was Rudd's most pointed jibe.

    No idea what the scandal is though, except Bunnco keeps hinting it involves Scotland.
    There's a reason Ruth doesn't like him
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,572

    RobD said:

    Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?

    ECHR membership was not put to a referendum of the people. Plus she just said "brexit means brexit"

    But what does Brexit actually mean? :-)

    Are you a politician? :p
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,495
    RobD said:

    Been in a meeting for a couple of hours - did i miss anything...?

    TSE's AV thread has been delayed again due to events....
    I might be doing an AV heavy thread this weekend.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,572
    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.
    Go on .... give us a clue.
    Would you trust him to drive you home after a party? That was Rudd's most pointed jibe.

    No idea what the scandal is though, except Bunnco keeps hinting it involves Scotland.
    There's a reason Ruth doesn't like him
    Of course our Charles knows... :D
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,138

    I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.

    PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.

    I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove

    Anything else would be a surprise - it's so funny.
  • wasdwasd Posts: 276

    All we need now is terminology to describe our non Brexit Brexit. What do people think ?

    A Boris?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,088
    Pulpstar said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.
    The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.
    Reminds me of the IRA non negotiations.
    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northern-ireland-36667115
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,439
    In other news I cashed out a £7.50 Rubio bet for 25 pence with Paddy Power.
  • Are any of the candidates going to pull us out of ECHR? I might have to change my support from May... although Osborne for Gove might send me back.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,495
    edited June 2016
    JohnO said:

    It's well known that Gove and Osborne have long been friends and allies: ditto that both, but in particular Gove, dislike May, so such rumours must contain a grain of 'instinctive truth' (if such a phrase has any meaning).

    But I'm warning soulmate TSE: don't even think about it.

    You're Theresa May's consigliere on PB.

    But I'm still on team TM4PM
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    RobD said:

    Is May's language on ECHR code for something else ' it divides people and there is no parliamentary majority for it '. What other current issue could be described like that I wonder ?

    ECHR membership was not put to a referendum of the people. Plus she just said "brexit means brexit"

    But what does Brexit actually mean? :-)

    No FoM.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,439
    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.
    Go on .... give us a clue.
    Would you trust him to drive you home after a party? That was Rudd's most pointed jibe.

    No idea what the scandal is though, except Bunnco keeps hinting it involves Scotland.
    There's a reason Ruth doesn't like him
    Of course our Charles knows... :D
    Is there some sort of secret club of people that know where all the bodies are buried ?
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    TudorRose said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    He never goes all the way?
    Try to source the accusation that Boris Johnson is a "Putin apologist". It surfaced during the referendum campaign. I mean who actually first called him that. What named person or specific office expressed the opinion? There's no clear answer. That's a hallmark.

    There was a reason why Boris wasn't allowed into the proper cabinet, only into the "political" cabinet. He could have got into the cabinet as a minister without portfolio, but he didn't. Why not?

    Meanwhile the French National Front is known to be financially supported by the Kremlin.

    Keir Giles of Chatham House: "Unlike in Soviet times, Russia is no longer restricted in its choice of foreign friends by considerations of ideology, and one notable result is a surge in links with right-wing and anti-EU parties".

    That isn't some loony writing on some silly website somewhere.

    The fact that Johnson has difficulty keeping his knob in his trousers - not unusual among politicians - is icing on the cake.

    So is the fact that he got himself taped discussing with Darius Guppy having someone beaten up. (The tape is here.)

    A third possible route for bringing him down...well, the Tories decided they didn't want Michael Portillo as their leader too. Portillo and Johnson are as English and as British as anyone, but from some Tories' point of view, they aren't. "I am a liberal cosmopolitan and my family is a genetic UN peacekeeping force" didn't play well.

    Despite the referendum result, Johnson's future was precarious. So glad I laid him.

    I think I will stay out of the Tory leadership market now. Michael Gove was adopted and has no blood family background in the normal sense, and to judge from what his wife says he is indecently ambitious. That may suggest that he will do exactly what he is told, so he may be exactly the sort of person the insiders want.

    Theresa May is the darling of the party itself. Is it true that she is a type 1 diabetic, by the way?

    Either of them could win.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    Martin Kettle ✔ @martinkettle

    The Tory party has proved yet again it has PhD in ruthlessness. Labour hasn't even passed GCSE.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,572
    edited June 2016

    JohnO said:

    It's well known that Gove and Osborne have long been friends and allies: ditto that both, but in particular Gove, dislike May, so such rumours must contain a grain of 'instinctive truth' (if such a phrase has any meaning).

    But I'm warning soulmate TSE: don't even think about it.

    You're Theresa May's consigliere on PB.

    But I'm still on team TM4PM
    How else is JohnO going to get his peerage?
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    felix said:

    Jobabob said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?


    Something to do with a Scottish lass according to Bunco.
    May was wearing tartan this morning - the plot thickens!
    ARF!
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,157
    JohnO said:

    It's well known that Gove and Osborne have long been friends and allies: ditto that both, but in particular Gove, dislike May, so such rumours must contain a grain of 'instinctive truth' (if such a phrase has any meaning).

    But I'm warning soulmate TSE: don't even think about it.

    Yes we need someone who can easily backtrack on the leave campaign bullshit. Give won't be able to.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
    Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
    Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,035
    Pulpstar said:

    RobD said:

    Charles said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    It's been hidden in plain sight for weeks. The carefully crafted Amber Rudd jibe in the first debate.
    Go on .... give us a clue.
    Would you trust him to drive you home after a party? That was Rudd's most pointed jibe.

    No idea what the scandal is though, except Bunnco keeps hinting it involves Scotland.
    There's a reason Ruth doesn't like him
    Of course our Charles knows... :D
    Is there some sort of secret club of people that know where all the bodies are buried ?
    Boodles or the Carlton?
  • JohnOJohnO Posts: 4,277
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:

    JohnO said:

    It's well known that Gove and Osborne have long been friends and allies: ditto that both, but in particular Gove, dislike May, so such rumours must contain a grain of 'instinctive truth' (if such a phrase has any meaning).

    But I'm warning soulmate TSE: don't even think about it.

    You're Theresa May's consigliere on PB.
    How else is JohnO going to get his peerage?
    As my man Hobbes said, "You're nasty, you're brutish, and you're very very short".
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    surbiton said:

    Ms Rudd wasn’t finished with Mr Johnson yet. “Boris is the life and soul of the party,” she snorted, in her concluding statement. “But he isn’t the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening!”

    What did she mean by that ?

    If you've got some dirt, spill it.

    I haven't but there is something. I cannot imagine a not unusual event like driving someone home would be brought up, unless heavy hints were being given.

    But then again, why in the Brexit campaign ?
  • felixfelix Posts: 15,138
    wasd said:

    All we need now is terminology to describe our non Brexit Brexit. What do people think ?

    A Boris?

    Wrexit?
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016

    I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.

    PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.

    I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove

    TSE - I hope you do not bet on the basis of your wonderful sources.

    Is that the same source from CCHQ/REMAIN about the fact that the polls were way ahead for REMAIN and you saw a 12% to 15% win for REMAIN?

    or the source a couple of weeks ago (I think) that told you if Cameron went on 24th June that Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign manager?
    ____________________________________________
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,439
    £11 of Dan Jarvis up at 16.5 for anyone who wants to cover off btw.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,035

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
    Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
    Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.
    Indeed Mr L.
    See exactly what you mean! Works in the NHS, too!
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,102
    It has to be May I'm afraid. Gove....he looks like a little gobshyte, he speaks like a little gobshyte.....and oh yes he is a little gobshyte.

    If Gove got to be PM, he and his missus would overshadow the Hamiltons in terms of unlikeability. Like the hamilton, they appear well matched.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,495
    Bloody hell, did Jez really say this ?

    Corbyn: "Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for the actions of Israel than our Muslim friends are for the self-styled Islamic State"
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Time to ditch the photo that helped stop Boris...

    Keep it in the safe. Just in case.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,439
    tyson said:

    It has to be May I'm afraid. Gove....he looks like a little gobshyte, he speaks like a little gobshyte.....and oh yes he is a little gobshyte.

    If Gove got to be PM, he and his missus would overshadow the Hamiltons in terms of unlikeability. Like the hamilton, they appear well matched.

    Sara Vine as the PM's wife is indeed a horrifying prospect.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,572

    I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.

    PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.

    I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove

    TSE - I hope you do not bet on the basis of your wonderful sources.

    Is that the same source from CCHQ/REMAIN about the fact that the polls were way ahead for REMAIN and you saw a 12% to 15% win for REMAIN?

    or the source a couple of weeks ago (I think) that told you if Cameron went on 24th June that Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign manager?
    ____________________________________________
    To be fair, his source may have been reporting the results of the poll accurately. That the poll was wrong wasn't the fault of his source.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 77,439
    Daily Mail looking like a big winner now:

    Brexit & Gove a runner.

    Sun with a score draw.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Martin Kettle ✔ @martinkettle

    The Tory party has proved yet again it has PhD in ruthlessness. Labour hasn't even passed GCSE.

    It's brutal, but no shilly-shallying about.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,088
    felix said:

    wasd said:

    All we need now is terminology to describe our non Brexit Brexit. What do people think ?

    A Boris?

    Wrexit?
    Wrexham voted 59% leave!
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 61,448
    (((Rob Ford))) ‏@robfordmancs 50m50 minutes ago
    Boris engineered the largest constitutional crisis in post-war history but won't even put his name forward to clear it up?

    What. A. Prat.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
    Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
    Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.
    Yup.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    I feel ever more confident that one day Osborne will be Tory leader

    He was the future once..
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    I'd be careful. I think she's bluffing - it's a negotiating stance. It's in everyone's interest to get this done ASAP.
    The EU will have to negotiate (via back channels, obviously) before A50 as far as I can see.
    It's not even quite that. The EU as such (Juncker and his merry men) won't do any serious negotiation, but they don't ultimately matter much anyway - they are bureaucrats, they don't get to decide what treaty 27+1 states decide to sign. But there's absolutely nothing to stop British ambassadors having chats with their host governments, and British ministers doing the same with their continenatl counterparts.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    Alistair said:
    So May then.

    Makes it very easy.

    Crabb is against gay marriage? I had assumed he was a left-winger. That said I know very little about him.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    surbiton said:

    Ms Rudd wasn’t finished with Mr Johnson yet. “Boris is the life and soul of the party,” she snorted, in her concluding statement. “But he isn’t the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening!”

    What did she mean by that ?

    "Snorted". Now there's a verb to use.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
    Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
    Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.
    Very wise words, Hurst.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 118,495
    RobD said:

    I've heard a rumour from a very reliable source.

    PM Gove would keep Ozzy as Chancellor.

    I might have to defect from Team Theresa to Team Gove

    TSE - I hope you do not bet on the basis of your wonderful sources.

    Is that the same source from CCHQ/REMAIN about the fact that the polls were way ahead for REMAIN and you saw a 12% to 15% win for REMAIN?

    or the source a couple of weeks ago (I think) that told you if Cameron went on 24th June that Michael Gove will be George Osborne's campaign manager?
    ____________________________________________
    To be fair, his source may have been reporting the results of the poll accurately. That the poll was wrong wasn't the fault of his source.
    Indeed. It was the same source who in April 2015 told me the Tories were at least 50 seats ahead of Labour in England and Wales.

    Very profitable source.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited June 2016
    Lost! All those bets on Boris to be next PM. Who said that he was untrustworthy?
  • Justed checked news websites and an hour is a long time in politics currently. Trying to make sense of it. May is obviously clear favourite now though I hope Gove wins. He's one of those rare politicians who shows a genuine interest in the person he's talking to and he clearly has the big vision of where he'd like the UK to be in the future. However, I fear his stint at Education will count against him.
  • eekeek Posts: 27,481
    Jobabob said:

    Alistair said:
    So May then.

    Makes it very easy.

    Crabb is against gay marriage? I had assumed he was a left-winger. That said I know very little about him.
    Crabb's religious beliefs trumped the requirements of others.. for that reason I could not vote for him. Heck Ian Paisley was more tolerant than he is....
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    John_N4 said:

    TudorRose said:

    surbiton said:

    So what happens to Nadine now ? Having Criticised Cameron and Osborne for being posh-boys, then Boris leaves her high and dry.

    So, what is this Boris scandal ?

    He never goes all the way?
    Try to source the accusation that Boris Johnson is a "Putin apologist". It surfaced during the referendum campaign. I mean who actually first called him that. What named person or specific office expressed the opinion? There's no clear answer. That's a hallmark.

    There was a reason why Boris wasn't allowed into the proper cabinet, only into the "political" cabinet. He could have got into the cabinet as a minister without portfolio, but he didn't. Why not?

    Meanwhile the French National Front is known to be financially supported by the Kremlin.

    Keir Giles of Chatham House: "Unlike in Soviet times, Russia is no longer restricted in its choice of foreign friends by considerations of ideology, and one notable result is a surge in links with right-wing and anti-EU parties".

    That isn't some loony writing on some silly website somewhere.

    The fact that Johnson has difficulty keeping his knob in his trousers - not unusual among politicians - is icing on the cake.

    So is the fact that he got himself taped discussing with Darius Guppy having someone beaten up. (The tape is here.)

    A third possible route for bringing him down...well, the Tories decided they didn't want Michael Portillo as their leader too. Portillo and Johnson are as English and as British as anyone, but from some Tories' point of view, they aren't. "I am a liberal cosmopolitan and my family is a genetic UN peacekeeping force" didn't play well.

    Despite the referendum result, Johnson's future was precarious. So glad I laid him.

    I think I will stay out of the Tory leadership market now. Michael Gove was adopted and has no blood family background in the normal sense, and to judge from what his wife says he is indecently ambitious. That may suggest that he will do exactly what he is told, so he may be exactly the sort of person the insiders want.

    Theresa May is the darling of the party itself. Is it true that she is a type 1 diabetic, by the way?

    Either of them could win.
    She is indeed a Type 1 diabetic and I believe a teetotaller. Not sure why either matter, or if they are connected, but there it is.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    surbiton said:

    surbiton said:

    Ms Rudd wasn’t finished with Mr Johnson yet. “Boris is the life and soul of the party,” she snorted, in her concluding statement. “But he isn’t the man you want driving you home at the end of the evening!”

    What did she mean by that ?

    If you've got some dirt, spill it.

    I haven't but there is something. I cannot imagine a not unusual event like driving someone home would be brought up, unless heavy hints were being given.

    But then again, why in the Brexit campaign ?
    Mr Johnson has a reputation as a womaniser. That's all that was.

  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    If it was May v Boris, I'd have backed May.

    May v Gove - much more difficult to decide.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sam Coates on Sky looks like he's been dragged out of bed!

    What a day for lobby hacks.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I hope that someone is videoing the other side so that we can watch it on catch-up next week.
  • JobabobJobabob Posts: 3,807
    @YellowSubmarine

    A Flexit?
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    Jobabob said:

    Jobabob said:

    Quick question, as I'm thinking of playing the Article 50 market.

    We now know it won't be invoked in 2016 (assuming a May victory). So can we assume Q1 2017?

    Possible curveball: May is not able to get it through parliament as europhile Tories rebel on a technicality (i.e. assurances from EU not good enough etc). Result: considerable delay.

    Is Q3 2017 therefore value at 20/1?

    https://www.skybet.com/politics/european-politics/event/19451469

    Liam Fox made the point on the Sunday Politics, that the EU budget runs Jan-Dec, so you'd want to invoke article 50 so the clock ran out in or before Dec.
    Explain why that is relevant (not saying it isn't but I simply don't follow the logic).
    Article 50 starts a two year clock. You don't want that clock to runout in february, and leave you on the hook for 12 months contribution to the EU budget.
    Awful month for decisions, December. Lose around two weeks due to Christmas.
    Well that depends on one's standpoint, Mr. Cole. When I was at the Home Office I found it a particularly useful time to get decisions through committees because very few people wanted to pay attention or spend the time to quibble. Circulating a 68 page discussion document 48 hours in advance with a very bland executive summary and all the tricky bits put into Appendix IV was, generally speaking, guaranteed to go through on the nod, especially if the meeting was held before lunch.
    Interesting. I tend to find that people look at Appendix IV.

    I prefer Appendix B or possibly E if there are more than 8 appendices.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053

    (((Rob Ford))) ‏@robfordmancs 50m50 minutes ago
    Boris engineered the largest constitutional crisis in post-war history but won't even put his name forward to clear it up?

    What. A. Prat.

    Boris did not engineer the referendum. UKIP did with the collaboration of Cameron.
  • ParistondaParistonda Posts: 1,843
    Little Vox Pop from my leave Tory dad just now:
    Gove is a knob. May looks better option. Liked by both sides. She would eat Corbyn alive

    fairly accurate I think!
This discussion has been closed.