politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The PB/Polling Matters podcast: Reflecting on the longest w
Comments
-
If rendundancies started on Monday, we'd know. There'd have to be a process.matt said:
Are you a partner (or more accurately, a member)? If not, I doubt you'd know. FWIW, I doubt that there will be plans as yet, but hiring will become more challenging and there will be questions over retention rates for the August qualifiers. Law firms still tend to avoid formal redundancies anyway and lean towards managing people out.TheWhiteRabbit said:
There are no planned redundancies at the Silver Circle law firm I'm at, as far as I'm aware. I'm confused why a US operation would act before it knew what the medium term was going to look like.bunnco said:My wife has just come off the phone to her sister, a partner in a US-based firm in the City.
First round of redundancies starts on Monday 'as a direct result of brexit'. As she says, the 'smart' Lawyers who voted Leave on the basis of reducing immigration will certainly get their wishes - they'll be doing their own cleaning whilst looking for other jobs.
Meanwhile, the French, who had been holding-up the top-end residential market in London are pulling out of housing transactions all over the leafy suburbs.
It's started. Project Reality.
I have seen the statement of the senior partner who believes this firm will do well. It is not the statement of a man about to manage redundancies.0 -
I'm not sure I agree. I think he's done the right thing by stepping aside but he's such a flamboyant character and was such a big player in the Brexit campaign, that I can't see him fading into obscurity.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?0 -
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
0 -
It was they way he did it, and the brutal legacy he’s left, I think, which more of his problem.HurstLlama said:
That need not be held against him, Mr. Cole. Everyone who actually tries to get the Education System to deliver for the pupils and students is "not liked" by the education establishment. I think that has been true since 1874.OldKingCole said:
He’s “not liked” in Education, is he.JonathanD said:
Gove also has his lack of belief in experts quote to deal with. I can't believe he seriously thinks he could face the electorate and win a majority.CarlottaVance said:
St Michael's crucifixion on the cross of broken promises will be longer, more painful and elaborately exquisite, than bluffer Boris's 'gosh, cripes, did I say that? No I didn't!'SouthamObserver said:
Like Boris, Gove has promised:TOPPING said:Theme from Gove camp (he himself the other day, and now Raab):
"I won't point fingers at other people"
= it was all my colleagues' fault; they are useless bastards.
Not IMO a great personality trait.
* £350 million a week more spending on the NHS.
* Tax cuts
* No tax rises
* No public spending cuts
* All current EU grants and subsidies maintained
* A selection of beneficial trade agreements
* Major reductions in immigration
* Ongoing, full access to the single market
Like Boris, he will not be able to deliver.
However, when I was an employer in a small business in the 60’s & 70’s my drinking friends used to complain bitterly about the quality of school leavers.0 -
Is there polling on a May/Gove match up? Looked at the YouGov tables but couldn't see it...0
-
You've got every right to capitalise, use profanity and blow your trumpet to the rafters.TheScreamingEagles said:I FUCKING TOLD YOU TO KEEP ON LAYING BORIS AND THAT HE WOULDN'T MAKE THE FINAL TWO
Poor old Boris. Like Heseltine, Portillo, Ken Clarke, David Miliband, and Chukka (who withdrew but would have lost)-a long list of the leaders that never were- all undoubtedly the most credible, charismatic and electoral appealing characters that never got the prize.
0 -
HaHaHaHaHaHaHaHA !!!0
-
Minister of Trade with his own Union Jack jumbo to gad around the planet with a whole bunch of CEO's?Fenster said:
I'm not sure I agree. I think he's done the right thing by stepping aside but he's such a flamboyant character and was such a big player in the Brexit campaign, that I can't see him fading into obscurity.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?0 -
Forces of Cameroon now turn heavy shelling towards Govia,
May now a shoe in0 -
0
-
No.Fenster said:Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?
0 -
George Eaton
Boris destroyed the dream he had (leadership) in pursuit of the one he didn't (Brexit).0 -
Boris.
The man who jeopardised three million jobs to get one.
And failed.0 -
He has never had a run at being leader. If the next leader fails (which is not impossible in the rocky seas ahead), commeth the hour commeth the Boris to save the Tory party.MaxPB said:
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
In the meantime, he's write a book.0 -
Presumably nominations closed at midday, XII o'clock.0
-
I said you'd never leave. Your like me post Corbyn. Politics is not for cry babies who spit out their dummies.TheScreamingEagles said:
Never left. I was hoping to be a bastard inside the tent pissing inMarqueeMark said:
So are you back with the Tory party again?TheScreamingEagles said:I FUCKING TOLD YOU TO KEEP ON LAYING BORIS AND THAT HE WOULDN'T MAKE THE FINAL TWO
0 -
You don't like my wig, I have othersRochdalePioneers said:
Keep an eye on that FabricantDavid_Evershed said:
Must be the hair.David_Evershed said:Boris Johnson is Michael Heseltine mark II
0 -
Correct, and we have to wait til Tuesday for the first vote!David_Evershed said:Presumably nominations closed at midday, XII o'clock.
0 -
BJWNBPM0
-
Never back a known loser.Richard_Nabavi said:
No.Fenster said:Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?
0 -
Big thanks to gadfly for being the first here this morning to suggest Boris might not run.
0 -
But his 10 years as permanent presenter of Have I Got News For You will win a TV Industry Award in 2027Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
0 -
I think May will want him in the tent. She may even offer him something to get reluctant leavers on board given that she'll be running against the purity of Gove's version of Brexit.Richard_Nabavi said:
No.Fenster said:Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?
0 -
So is it:
May
Crabb
Leadsom
Gove
Fox
Any others?0 -
Ages ago, I said Boris was best for Party Chairman - I still think that. I'd like to see him involved in Team Brexit as an ambassador.MaxPB said:
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
0 -
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goviamr-claypole said:Forces of Cameroon now turn heavy shelling towards Govia,
May now a shoe in0 -
surbiton said:
Please elaborate what is the difference ?Cyclefree said:
Why is anyone surprised? Corbyn has been Chair of Stop the War which was against fighting IS but did want war on Israel (though they tried deleting those bits of their website saying so). In such people's minds there is no moral difference between Israel and IS. Corbyn and his ilk simply do not understand why the relationship between being Jewish and Israel is very different to that between being Muslim and IS. Hence his crassness. He is, of course, right that one should not hold Muslims as a group responsible for the actions of IS. He is far less clear about holding the ideology behind IS responsible for IS.Tissue_Price said:Jesus H. Christ. What a way to respond to the Chakrabarti report:
@MarcusDysch: Corbyn: "'Zio' is a vile epithet. Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for actions of Israel than Muslims are for Islamic State."
Israel is important to what it means to be Jewish. One key Jewish prayer is about "Next year in Jerusalem."
IS is not important to what it means to be Muslim, however much IS would like it to be so. Most Muslims will tell you that IS is a perversion of and a total misunderstanding of Islam.
0 -
Boris's future remains interesting. Perhaps he has just escaped becoming the most unpopular politician in the country. He still deserves "Minister for Brexit" but I can't see May appointing him to anything much, after her comments. For sure, chuntering on the backbenches isn't going to keep him happy, and he wont like being offered anything that doesn't look like a top job. So what does he do?Fenster said:
I'm not sure I agree. I think he's done the right thing by stepping aside but he's such a flamboyant character and was such a big player in the Brexit campaign, that I can't see him fading into obscurity.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?0 -
FalconerFenster said:So is it:
May
Crabb
Leadsom
Gove
Fox
Any others?0 -
Gove seems to fancy himself as some modern-day Francis Urquhart. That's quite some setup he pulled on Johnson.0
-
Crabb, Fox, Gove Leadsom, May to run.0
-
Scandal incoming surely?0
-
Like Portillo he will resign and become a TV celeb visiting the battlefields of Greece and Persia quoting Homer and Socrates..Fenster said:
I'm not sure I agree. I think he's done the right thing by stepping aside but he's such a flamboyant character and was such a big player in the Brexit campaign, that I can't see him fading into obscurity.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
Do you think he'll be offered a cabinet job by May or Gove?
0 -
Baron?RochdalePioneers said:
FalconerFenster said:So is it:
May
Crabb
Leadsom
Gove
Fox
Any others?0 -
Let's get back on tracker and focus on the most important political development.
Has Charlie Falconer resigned yet?0 -
To expand on what I said, this moment was the ideal one for Boris. For better or worse, he seized the political initiative in the run-up to the referendum. It was a big bet which, after an initial wobble, he won. That put him into pole position in terms of being the guy who had seized the ball as it emerged from the scrum*, but it didn't alter the fact that that as a candidate for high office he has very serious drawbacks. Those drawbacks won't go away, but the unique opportunity has.
* Apologies for the mixed metaphor. I'm not very good on sports!0 -
I did wonder after his conspicuous absence from the HoC when Cameron made his statement on the referendum - maybe he just concluded that he didn't want it badly enough.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
Mrs May, on the other hand has been wading through effluent for six years, doing a lot of other people's dirty work and not much minding.....anyone who can take on the Police Federation in their own den can give the EU a decent run for their money, albeit with a much poorer hand than the LEAVErs would have you believe.....0 -
Boris could potentially rival Corbyn for the biggest idiot in British politics.TheScreamingEagles said:George Eaton
Boris destroyed the dream he had (leadership) in pursuit of the one he didn't (Brexit).0 -
There was something in the air from Scotland.TheScreamingEagles said:Scandal incoming surely?
0 -
Ah hem. Something that could only be reported in Scotlandsurbiton said:
There was something in the air from Scotland.TheScreamingEagles said:Scandal incoming surely?
0 -
Just been out for lunch...anything interesting happen...innocent face.0
-
El
Oh
El0 -
"Here is a box, a musical box, wound up and ready to play. But this box can hide a secret inside. Can you guess what is in it today ?"0
-
Gove drifting now. Will he actually stand now he has taken out Boris?0
-
I think that's right. I see a stellar career for him as a sparkling, funny, incisive media pundit and author. I doubt if he'll even stand again for Parliament - too much like hard work.Jonathan said:
He has never had a run at being leader. If the next leader fails (which is not impossible in the rocky seas ahead), commeth the hour commeth the Boris to save the Tory party.MaxPB said:
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
In the meantime, he's write a book.0 -
Ok. Fair enough.Cyclefree said:surbiton said:
Please elaborate what is the difference ?Cyclefree said:
Why is anyone surprised? Corbyn has been Chair of Stop the War which was against fighting IS but did want war on Israel (though they tried deleting those bits of their website saying so). In such people's minds there is no moral difference between Israel and IS. Corbyn and his ilk simply do not understand why the relationship between being Jewish and Israel is very different to that between being Muslim and IS. Hence his crassness. He is, of course, right that one should not hold Muslims as a group responsible for the actions of IS. He is far less clear about holding the ideology behind IS responsible for IS.Tissue_Price said:Jesus H. Christ. What a way to respond to the Chakrabarti report:
@MarcusDysch: Corbyn: "'Zio' is a vile epithet. Our Jewish friends are no more responsible for actions of Israel than Muslims are for Islamic State."
Israel is important to what it means to be Jewish. One key Jewish prayer is about "Next year in Jerusalem."
IS is not important to what it means to be Muslim, however much IS would like it to be so. Most Muslims will tell you that IS is a perversion of and a total misunderstanding of Islam.0 -
Gaucheness again, I'm afraid:
http://www2.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2016/04/28/choosing-camerons-successor-the-process-and-the-possibles/0 -
Meanwhile in the race for 'biggest clusterf*ck':
Jeremy Duns: A Labour member has accused a Jewish MP of being part of a right-wing media plot *at the launch of their antisemitism enquiry*.0 -
I loved that.frpenkridge said:"Here is a box, a musical box, wound up and ready to play. But this box can hide a secret inside. Can you guess what is in it today ?"
0 -
Boris has smashed and broken up the nation and then walked away leaving someone else to clean up the mess.
Bit like a Bullingdon night out.0 -
Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson 3 mins3 minutes ago
Murdoch...Dacre...Gove friend of both...Boris's private life...wonder if there might be ...dots to be joined?
0 -
v good shoutBig_G_NorthWales said:
She should go to UKIP and let Carswell back into the foldScrapheap_as_was said:lively match up
Louise Mensch @LouiseMensch · 2m2 minutes ago
Nadine Dorries of I'm a Celebrity shrill shrieks about her colleagues are another blow to Boris she's exactly what Tories don't need0 -
Boris out - WOOOOOHHHOOOOOO!!!!!!!!!!!
To everyone else who's been laying Osborne and Johnson since May last year, congratulations too!0 -
She could win on the first ballot.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goviamr-claypole said:Forces of Cameroon now turn heavy shelling towards Govia,
May now a shoe in0 -
-
As per the BBC. Gove said he said he was standing because he had come "to the conclusion that Boris cannot provide the leadership or build the team for the task ahead".
Now Boris is out does Gove have a reason to stand?0 -
If it is contested, there is no way to avoid the vote of the party surely?surbiton said:
She could win on the first ballot.Sunil_Prasannan said:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Goviamr-claypole said:Forces of Cameroon now turn heavy shelling towards Govia,
May now a shoe in0 -
I'd be surprised. He'd have to keep his head down, stay loyal, and be seen to work as part of the new Tory team to earn enough brownie points to be able to run again, if such an opportunity arises. Boris is the least temperamentally able person on the planet to do that; he is driven most of all by being the centre of attention.Jonathan said:
He has never had a run at being leader. If the next leader fails (which is not impossible in the rocky seas ahead), commeth the hour commeth the Boris to save the Tory party.MaxPB said:
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
In the meantime, he's write a book.
And it could be a long shot anyway - if Brexit doesn't work out well it will probably tarnish the whole Tory brand, not just the incoming PM.0 -
Shurely, xii o'clock.David_Evershed said:Presumably nominations closed at midday, XII o'clock.
0 -
Brandon Lewis - One to Watch0
-
I honestly can't imagine anybody honestly been shocked about Bonking Boris' private life. It isn't even an open secret, everybody knows.Slackbladder said:Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson 3 mins3 minutes ago
Murdoch...Dacre...Gove friend of both...Boris's private life...wonder if there might be ...dots to be joined?0 -
If nominations have now closed, then Crabb is not a candidate, right? If so, anyone with £1000 to spare can mop up at 3% interest in two months laying him on Betfair. DYOR though.0
-
Nah, Bullingdon boys always paid for the damage and left a large tip waitress.not_on_fire said:Boris has smashed and broken up the nation and then walked away leaving someone else to clean up the mess.
Bit like a Bullingdon night out.0 -
Getting warmerSlackbladder said:Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson 3 mins3 minutes ago
Murdoch...Dacre...Gove friend of both...Boris's private life...wonder if there might be ...dots to be joined?0 -
Surely the press wouldn't sit on a scandal about a politician? I mean, that wouldn't be acceptable, would it?Slackbladder said:Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson 3 mins3 minutes ago
Murdoch...Dacre...Gove friend of both...Boris's private life...wonder if there might be ...dots to be joined?0 -
Surely after making that speech he put in his nom papers?NickPalmer said:If nominations have now closed, then Crabb is not a candidate, right? If so, anyone with £1000 to spare can mop up at 3% interest in two months laying him on Betfair. DYOR though.
0 -
stjohn said:
Gove drifting now. Will he actually stand now he has taken out Boris?
Interesting this. If Gove pulls out, and he might - I don't think he fancies being leader - will the Boris and Gove juggernaut get behind Leadsom?stjohn said:Gove drifting now. Will he actually stand now he has taken out Boris?
A Tory woman versus Tory woman would do wonders for the party image.0 -
It could get very nasty for the new government. There will be a moment where people look for a game changer.IanB2 said:
I'd be surprised. He'd have to keep his head down, stay loyal, and be seen to work as part of the new Tory team to earn enough brownie points to be able to run again, if such an opportunity arises. Boris is the least temperamentally able person on the planet to do that. And it could be a long shot anyway - if Brexit doesn't work out well it will probably tarnish the whole Tory brand, not just the incoming PM.Jonathan said:
He has never had a run at being leader. If the next leader fails (which is not impossible in the rocky seas ahead), commeth the hour commeth the Boris to save the Tory party.MaxPB said:
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
In the meantime, he's write a book.
Clearly, it depends heavily on what he does and the context of the failure, but Boris could easily be seen as such a game changer.
Either way it seems a touch early to write him off.0 -
Unless the others all withdraw. That's not likely, however.RobD said:If it is contested, there is no way to avoid the vote of the party surely?
0 -
Boris as Tory chairman -- the Jeffrey Archer de nos jours?NickPalmer said:
I think that's right. I see a stellar career for him as a sparkling, funny, incisive media pundit and author. I doubt if he'll even stand again for Parliament - too much like hard work.Jonathan said:
He has never had a run at being leader. If the next leader fails (which is not impossible in the rocky seas ahead), commeth the hour commeth the Boris to save the Tory party.MaxPB said:
Yes, I don't see how he comes back from this to get another run at being leader. Even if he lands a big job in May's cabinet and dumps Minister for Brexit on Gove, by the time May retires or is beaten he'll be too old and the new intake will have their people in the running.Richard_Nabavi said:
No, he's toast. That's the end of his political career.Jonathan said:When the next leader fails, it will be Boris' turn. Smart move potentially.
In the meantime, he's write a book.0 -
Just realised, The Sun have finally backed a loser. Boris – the man who changes history.0
-
Damnit - I've been busy this morning as it is our year end today. Managed to get 100 quid on Gove but only after he announced, and despite mentioning it here didn't lay Boris.
Gah! Betting fail.0 -
Yeah, I don't think that's likely either. There are just too many of them now.Richard_Nabavi said:
Unless the others all withdraw. That's not likely, however.RobD said:If it is contested, there is no way to avoid the vote of the party surely?
0 -
BBC says 5 nominations. Crabb, Fox, Gove, Leadsom, May.NickPalmer said:If nominations have now closed, then Crabb is not a candidate, right? If so, anyone with £1000 to spare can mop up at 3% interest in two months laying him on Betfair. DYOR though.
0 -
Give is modelling himself on you apparently.FrancisUrquhart said:Just been out for lunch...anything interesting happen...innocent face.
0 -
The SUN backs a LOSER0
-
Nadine v. Anna???Fenster said:stjohn said:Gove drifting now. Will he actually stand now he has taken out Boris?
Interesting this. If Gove pulls out, and he might - I don't think he fancies being leader - will the Boris and Gove juggernaut get behind Leadsom?stjohn said:Gove drifting now. Will he actually stand now he has taken out Boris?
A Tory woman versus Tory woman would do wonders for the party image.0 -
He didn't stand for election! So NOT a LoserScott_P said:The SUN backs a LOSER
(Bit like IDS not losing a GE ) 0 -
Entirely possible. It is a tribute to Labour that they did not exploit Boris's colourful private life. Or a condemnation of their naivety: one of the two.Slackbladder said:Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson 3 mins3 minutes ago
Murdoch...Dacre...Gove friend of both...Boris's private life...wonder if there might be ...dots to be joined?0 -
The Tories remind us that Labour has nothing on them when it comes to ruthlessness.0
-
You have to say it's BRILLIANT what Gove has done here... I mean irrespective of what you think about the case for or against leaving the EU, the sheer evilness of this plot to use Boris for LEAVE and then knife him at the end... WOW!0
-
Well when he stood against Ken they could hardly go back on that could they?DecrepitJohnL said:
Entirely possible. It is a tribute to Labour that they did not exploit Boris's colourful private life. Or a condemnation of their naivety: one of the two.Slackbladder said:Nick Robinson @bbcnickrobinson 3 mins3 minutes ago
Murdoch...Dacre...Gove friend of both...Boris's private life...wonder if there might be ...dots to be joined?0 -
Boris backers in tears. Oh dear, what a shame0
-
Updates on Guardian-Live have dried up – I think Andrew Sparrow has been left speechless..!0
-
That's good. I imagine we'll get this down to the final two after the first vote on Tuesday?stjohn said:
BBC says 5 nominations. Crabb, Fox, Gove, Leadsom, May.NickPalmer said:If nominations have now closed, then Crabb is not a candidate, right? If so, anyone with £1000 to spare can mop up at 3% interest in two months laying him on Betfair. DYOR though.
0 -
My local MP was a prominent Boris backer.
ROFLMAO0 -
Just thinking about the tactics of the various contenders - MPs are a very sophisticated electorate, and will tactically back some candidates to knock out others.
We need to have a look at this stuff - rather than run off with the simplistic headline numbers.0 -
Boris now 8/1 to ever be Prime Minister (WH). I don't think that's a value bet.0
-
If Leadsom survives after Round 2, she could make it. She has not said anything contradictory as far as I can remember.0
-
Boris "100 MPs" Johnson....
0
