politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Granny storming the barricades

murali_s said:

SeanT said:

WE DID IT

WE FUCKING DID IT

WE DID IT

AND NOW WE ARE FUCKED

I'm always going to have Nancy Cameron's apprenticeship on my conscience. Sorry Nancy.

Tried to post this earlier, but don't think it worked...apologies if double posted!

Well, what better time to delurk?

I voted Remain, but with no love for the EU. I agree with those who said that most likely there would have come a point in the medium term when we’d have had to choose between full integration and leaving anyway, and the tin-earred deafness of the EU apparatchiks to their own unpopularity has reaped a terrible reward sooner than most imagined. However, I was determined to vote Remain for one reason only - the Union. I come from very close to the border (on the English side), my stepmother is Scottish and I entirely identify in the “British, not English” category. The IndyRef was (from a political perspective) the most stressful and angst-filled period I can remember. I would be willing to sacrifice a great deal - including the problems of remaining in the EU to avoid reopening this issue.

Ever since the last IndyRef, it was clear the SNP would take any excuse to do that - and so it has proved. Sturgeon is a brilliant politician - and the fact she hasn’t set a provisional date yet shows she isn’t certain she will win a second go. Out-manoeuvring her and the SNP has to be one of the main objectives for the government in the next few months. For this, Ruth is going to be crucial - it may be too late already (I fear it is), but if the Union is to survive, what she does, and what the government does with and through her are so important. She needs to be able to sell the message that while Scots did not get to stay in the EU, they would still be better off in the UK than outside - in essence, the next (sadly, I suspect, inevitable) IndyRef will be the choice of two Unions - UK or EU. And there is a strong message about the benefits of the UK over the EU for Scotland, but it will have to be made positively. As we’ve seen, Project Fear just won’t work anymore.

I’d also say, it will be crucial for those unionists who took the Leave position in Scotland - the likes of Tom Harris - to have plenty to say about the way that Scotland’s powers will be increased (e.g. in farming and fisheries) through Leave. There were still 38% who voted against the EU - they won’t necessarily be enamoured of the idea of being dragged back in.

This may all be wishful thinking - it may all be too late - but the downsides of the EU, which may just get worse over the coming months and years, give me hope that Scots would choose the Union they have, rather than the one they will have lost. But, the UK government can make no more mistakes. Picking someone like Boris would probably be such a mistake. Goodness knows if the Conservatives will pick a Remainer now, but if they do, it has to someone like Stephen Crabb, whom it would be harder to paint as a typical southern English Tory.

MaxPB said:

alex. said:

Not much discussion on Scotland, but it appears to me that Sturgeon has got a bit problem. One thing the it feels last night brought into perspective was quite how comprehensive the defeat was in the Scottish referendum, whatever the subsequent benefits to the SNP under FPTP. Last night at 52-48 really felt like a comprehensive defeat, and never really felt close all night. The Scottish referendum was 55-45 which in comparison feels like a massacre. It's difficult to see a margin of that size being overcome, whatever the situation change with the EU. None of the problems the yes camp had at the time have been remotely resolved, and it's difficult to believe that the EU will swing it that much. Especially as it still wouldn't really be a choice between EU and not EU.

Unless the EU contorts itself into some successor membership option that will leave Scotland with oir opt-outs, vetoes and rebate I dont see how the situation has changed. The idea that such a contortion could be pulled off without any dissent from other similar sized nations who will not be able to opt out of the Eurozone (let alone Poland who have been blocked from using the Swedish solution) or have a rebate seems fanciful.

Once the shock wears off, the situation will be almost identical to before Brexit.

How much of a contortion is really needed though? The Council of Ministers can simply decide that the UK is dissolved by the end of the Acts of Union rather than Scotland seceding from a continuing UK. As far as I am aware that would be a EU ministerial decision and will not require any vote by member states.

Once that is achieved, they simply offer continuing membership as the successor to the UK in terms of EU membership. Again as this is not a treaty change it would be dealt with by QMV and there would be no veto available.

RealBritain said:

alex. said:

RealBritain said:

"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.

Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:

The British must take on the consequences of their choice.
We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue].
We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing.
This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”

The law of unintended consequences.

The French Government has already dismissed it though.

It's the local population and local political powerbases that may make the difference, however.

In this case, the control is via central government - the Calais area is really fed up. If they had the power, they would have pushed every single through the tunnel long, long ago.

JacobD said:

Tried to post this earlier, but don't think it worked...apologies if double posted!

Well, what better time to delurk?

I voted Remain, but with no love for the EU. I agree with those who said that most likely there would have come a point in the medium term when we’d have had to choose between full integration and leaving anyway, and the tin-earred deafness of the EU apparatchiks to their own unpopularity has reaped a terrible reward sooner than most imagined. However, I was determined to vote Remain for one reason only - the Union. I come from very close to the border (on the English side), my stepmother is Scottish and I entirely identify in the “British, not English” category. The IndyRef was (from a political perspective) the most stressful and angst-filled period I can remember. I would be willing to sacrifice a great deal - including the problems of remaining in the EU to avoid reopening this issue.

I’d also say, it will be crucial for those unionists who took the Leave position in Scotland - the likes of Tom Harris - to have plenty to say about the way that Scotland’s powers will be increased (e.g. in farming and fisheries) through Leave. There were still 38% who voted against the EU - they won’t necessarily be enamoured of the idea of being dragged back in.

This may all be wishful thinking - it may all be too late - but the downsides of the EU, which may just get worse over the coming months and years, give me hope that Scots would choose the Union they have, rather than the one they will have lost. But, the UK government can make no more mistakes. Picking someone like Boris would probably be such a mistake. Goodness knows if the Conservatives will pick a Remainer now, but if they do, it has to someone like Stephen Crabb, whom it would be harder to paint as a typical southern English Tory.

Welcome Jacob, good post.

I'd write a longer reply, but I think we should all hold fire a while. I could be completely wrong, but the EU might offer something sensible that gives Scotland a palatable halfway house.

Nothing, but nothing needs to happen quickly now.

Lowlander said:

MaxPB said:

alex. said:

Not much discussion on Scotland, but it appears to me that Sturgeon has got a bit problem. One thing the it feels last night brought into perspective was quite how comprehensive the defeat was in the Scottish referendum, whatever the subsequent benefits to the SNP under FPTP. Last night at 52-48 really felt like a comprehensive defeat, and never really felt close all night. The Scottish referendum was 55-45 which in comparison feels like a massacre. It's difficult to see a margin of that size being overcome, whatever the situation change with the EU. None of the problems the yes camp had at the time have been remotely resolved, and it's difficult to believe that the EU will swing it that much. Especially as it still wouldn't really be a choice between EU and not EU.

Unless the EU contorts itself into some successor membership option that will leave Scotland with oir opt-outs, vetoes and rebate I dont see how the situation has changed. The idea that such a contortion could be pulled off without any dissent from other similar sized nations who will not be able to opt out of the Eurozone (let alone Poland who have been blocked from using the Swedish solution) or have a rebate seems fanciful.

Once the shock wears off, the situation will be almost identical to before Brexit.

How much of a contortion is really needed though? The Council of Ministers can simply decide that the UK is dissolved by the end of the Acts of Union rather than Scotland seceding from a continuing UK. As far as I am aware that would be a EU ministerial decision and will not require any vote by member states.

Once that is achieved, they simply offer continuing membership as the successor to the UK in terms of EU membership. Again as this is not a treaty change it would be dealt with by QMV and there would be no veto available.

Yes that seems highly plausible to me. The only question is whether there's the will in France and Germany to push it through, and I think there absolutely will be.

SouthamObserver said:

rottenborough said:

God, I'm angry tonight. I thought I would calm down as the day wore on. But no.

I shall now watch Ch4 news on +1 - which will turn me up another notch or two no doubt.

It's done, we have to move on. Remain lost the argument. Now Leave have to guide us through what is going to be a very tricky few years. We all have to hope that Boris, Mike, Priti, Nigel and co have called this right and we are on the cusp of glorious prosperity. If they are wrong, we may well end up going back to the EU in a few years to re-enter on the terms we are presented with.

People are going to want to vent. It's still pretty raw. I can't imagine I'd be shrugging my shoulders and whistling a merry tune if it had gone the other way.

I'll not engage with the venters though, if I want a flame war there are far better places to go than PB.

GIN1138 said:

AndyJS said:

Channel 4 News compares Cameron to Eden and Chamberlain.

Cameron was compared to Chamberlain on telly last weekend. I wonder if he knew then that the game was up?

The look on his face tells me he did! Go have a look at that video again

SouthamObserver said:

alex. said:

BenedictWhite said:

OUT said:

BenedictWhite said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their
Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...

They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.

It's more like a flat tyre.

And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!

https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/746366820899299328

To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.

Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.

It is at the same level it was 5 months ago.....

Strangely few people ever look at the 5 year graphs. They love the 24hr ones...

Thrak said:

BenedictWhite said:

Thrak said:

BenedictWhite said:

AndyJS said:

John McDonnell bullish about Labour's prospects at a snap general election.

Curiously there will not be one. Primarily because:

1. The fixed term parliament act.

2. We need stability not snap elections.

3. Who ever takes over as PM will not be stupid,

Small majority, not many disaffected people needed for a vote of confidence.

Do you suppose the Tory ranks are filled with Europhiles in self destruct mode?

Enough, and the country will thank them.

No, and er no they will not. What is more the Europhiles may find they have no troops.

John_M said:

JacobD said:

Tried to post this earlier, but don't think it worked...apologies if double posted!

Well, what better time to delurk?

I voted Remain, but with no love for the EU. I agree with those who said that most likely there would have come a point in the medium term when we’d have had to choose between full integration and leaving anyway, and the tin-earred deafness of the EU apparatchiks to their own unpopularity has reaped a terrible reward sooner than most imagined. However, I was determined to vote Remain for one reason only - the Union. I come from very close to the border (on the English side), my stepmother is Scottish and I entirely identify in the “British, not English” category. The IndyRef was (from a political perspective) the most stressful and angst-filled period I can remember. I would be willing to sacrifice a great deal - including the problems of remaining in the EU to avoid reopening this issue.

I’d also say, it will be crucial for those unionists who took the Leave position in Scotland - the likes of Tom Harris - to have plenty to say about the way that Scotland’s powers will be increased (e.g. in farming and fisheries) through Leave. There were still 38% who voted against the EU - they won’t necessarily be enamoured of the idea of being dragged back in.

This may all be wishful thinking - it may all be too late - but the downsides of the EU, which may just get worse over the coming months and years, give me hope that Scots would choose the Union they have, rather than the one they will have lost. But, the UK government can make no more mistakes. Picking someone like Boris would probably be such a mistake. Goodness knows if the Conservatives will pick a Remainer now, but if they do, it has to someone like Stephen Crabb, whom it would be harder to paint as a typical southern English Tory.

Welcome Jacob, good post.

I'd write a longer reply, but I think we should all hold fire a while. I could be completely wrong, but the EU might offer something sensible that gives Scotland a palatable halfway house.

Nothing, but nothing needs to happen quickly now.

Scottish Independence isn't just about the EU. They still have to answer all the economic arguments that they fudged the first time round, and they can't even shout "OIL" anymore. And yes I know there were those (including I think MalcolmG) who were in favour from a right wing perspective - independence would be a good for weaning Scotland off the reliance on public services and the public purse towards a more business friendly entrepreneurial future, but it will still be a very brave politician who actually makes that argument in a referendum.

Essexit said:

23 year-old Leave voter here. Scrolling through my Facebook feed before the referendum it was clear that a lot of people my age were voting Remain because they didn't want to be on the same side as Farage/Gove/Boris. Pointing out that they were instead siding with Cameron/Clegg/Blair/Sinn Fein seemed to fall on deaf ears.

No doubt some of the oldies who made this possible were just anti-immigration nuts. However, many older folk that I met on the campaign trail had thought about the decision carefully and were voting Leave for good reasons to do with restoring our democracy. Frankly I'm glad they did.

I think older voters in this perspective were a great deal less prone to Project fear. Visas to go on a city break, NO TRADE WITH ANYONE, etc. They've never known anything else.

blackburn63 said:

SouthamObserver said:

murali_s said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alistair said:

IndyRef2 electric Boogaloo thoughts

PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.

Is this because
1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions
2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa
or
3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?

New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.

My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.

So the Grid is

Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2
Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First
No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First
No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2
Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote
No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.

Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.

There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.

If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.

Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?

If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.

You've changed your tune haven't you?

He's right - they should be given the option of seceding. Brexit is clearly a material change.

I agree but heard a good point earlier on BBC, before calling for another referendum Sturgeon would have to be certain of winning.

She may be in a situation where she has no choice. In any case, what Brexit has shown is that issues of identity and sovereignty can trump the economics, and that no-one listens to experts anymore. Given all that the SNP would have a very good chance of carrying the day.

Ken about to be interviewed on Sky News.

Ken says he will emigrate if Boris is PM.

SouthamObserver said:

BenedictWhite said:

SouthamObserver said:

alex. said:

BenedictWhite said:

OUT said:

BenedictWhite said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their
Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...

They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.

It's more like a flat tyre.

And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!

https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/746366820899299328

To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.

Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.

So not as hard hit as the EU stock exchanges then? Besides which we will see what happens on Monday.

It's not a competition. The EU stock exchanges reflect levels of confidence in economies that are key export markets for us.

If we're about to negotiate with a group of countries that the great and the good insist are in a much stronger bargaining position than us, surely right now it is a competition and anything which makes it harder for them to play hard-ball is a plus in our column.

SouthamObserver said:

blackburn63 said:

SouthamObserver said:

murali_s said:

SeanT said:

Sean_F said:

SouthamObserver said:

Alistair said:

IndyRef2 electric Boogaloo thoughts

PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.

Is this because
1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions
2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa
or
3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?

New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.

My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.

So the Grid is

Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2
Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First
No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First
No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2
Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote
No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.

Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.

There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.

If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.

Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?

If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.

You've changed your tune haven't you?

He's right - they should be given the option of seceding. Brexit is clearly a material change.

I agree but heard a good point earlier on BBC, before calling for another referendum Sturgeon would have to be certain of winning.

She may be in a situation where she has no choice. In any case, what Brexit has shown is that issues of identity and sovereignty can trump the economics, and that no-one listens to experts anymore. Given all that the SNP would have a very good chance of carrying the day.

I don't think the economic risks of Brexit were ever close to matching the economic risks of Sindy. Brexit issues are all about technicalities and margins, Sindy is/was about fundamentals.

hunchman said:

In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!

Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.

You hardly notice borders between European nations, why should you notice borders between Scotland and England.
I guess we might need a new name to replace 'United Kingdom' and a deconstructed flag.

John_M said:

tlg86 said:

Ken says he will emigrate if Boris is PM.

Just when I thought the day couldn't get any better.

I've suddenly changed my mind about Boris's suitability for the job.

hunchman said:

In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!

Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.

Will there be a proper border between NI/ROI?

hunchman said:

In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!

Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.

So there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland now?

No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase. Also, if as now seems likely, the markets do not crash, then the entire Project Fear message will be doomed to fail. First time around, Project Fear was all they had.

nunu said:

GIN1138 said:

AndyJS said:

Channel 4 News compares Cameron to Eden and Chamberlain.

Cameron was compared to Chamberlain on telly last weekend. I wonder if he knew then that the game was up?

The look on his face tells me he did! Go have a look at that video again

Watch this video from Monday with the benefit of hindsight, and say he didn't know at this point that he was seriously worried about the result
https://youtu.be/ymneN_59ZCw

Richard_Nabavi said:

Evening all. Thanks for the comments. I'm sorry that my photoshopping skills aren't up to morphing the bare-breasted Marianne into an axe-wielding granny.

It was an interesting article Richard. We have been blessed with some good 'uns over the last month or so.

glw said:

John_M said:

tlg86 said:

Ken says he will emigrate if Boris is PM.

Just when I thought the day couldn't get any better.

I've suddenly changed my mind about Boris's suitability for the job.

Perhaps someone should tell Ken to go back where he came from.

You know - as he said to a pair of Iranian refugees.

Sandpit said:

nunu said:

GIN1138 said:

AndyJS said:

Channel 4 News compares Cameron to Eden and Chamberlain.

Cameron was compared to Chamberlain on telly last weekend. I wonder if he knew then that the game was up?

The look on his face tells me he did! Go have a look at that video again

Watch this video from Monday with the benefit of hindsight, and say he didn't know at this point that he was seriously worried about the result

With the benefit of hindsight, should he have announced his resignation in that statement and removed his own toxicity as a factor in the vote?

Lowlander said:

hunchman said:

In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!

Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.

So there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland now?

No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase. Also, if as now seems likely, the markets do not crash, then the entire Project Fear message will be doomed to fail. First time around, Project Fear was all they had.

How will tariffs on goods imported to NI from the EU be collected?

alex. said:

SouthamObserver said:

She may be in a situation where she has no choice. In any case, what Brexit has shown is that issues of identity and sovereignty can trump the economics, and that no-one listens to experts anymore. Given all that the SNP would have a very good chance of carrying the day.

I don't think the economic risks of Brexit were ever close to matching the economic risks of Sindy. Brexit issues are all about technicalities and margins, Sindy is/was about fundamentals.

However, whether this is true or not, the lack of economic collapse following Brexit will leave these claims as toothless threats which people will not believe. The win for Brexit and subsequent lack of armageddon seriously harms any hope for a second No win in Scotland.

Barnesian said:

Instead of invoking Article 50, a simpler solution would be for England and Wales to withdraw from the UK. That would get them out of the EU automatically, as it would have for Scotland had they withdrawn from the UK. And it would leave Scotland and Northern Ireland in the UK and hence in the EU.

Then maybe Northern Ireland could join ROI and the UK could change its name to Scotland.

The thought of the SNP, via the UK (sorry, Scottish) government, having veto power on the UN Security Council quickly rules this method out...

Malmesbury said:

John_M said:

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

alex. said:

BenedictWhite said:

OUT said:

BenedictWhite said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their
Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...

They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.

It's more like a flat tyre.

And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!

https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/746366820899299328

To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.

Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.

It is at the same level it was 5 months ago.....

Strangely few people ever look at the 5 year graphs. They love the 24hr ones...

People are hunting around for things that reinforce their points. The market shock was expected, but we shouldn't be happy about it. Nor should we be comparing ourselves to our trading partners. We've subjected them to a shock, and I'm sure they're unhappy about it.

We can expect the FTSE xxx and the sterling exchange rate to be an endless source of fascination for the next few weeks.

Oh, I'm not happy about it. But stating the world has ended is utterly ridiculous. Or that everyone who doesn't want to be a member of the EU is a nazi or whatever.

Maybe it's because I have travelled (a bit) around the world. There are bags of countries out there, not in the EU. Strangely, not all of them are deserts inhabited by savage racist cannibals...

I agree, unsurprisingly. I'm going to go about my business and not worry about anything until article 50 is actually invoked.

We're about to enter a period of phony war. Perhaps that will steady the country's nerves.

JosiasJessop said:

tlg86 said:

Ken says he will emigrate if Boris is PM.

How many people who say this actually go through with it?

(As an aside, yonks ago I heard an interview with the late Paul Daniels when he said he never said what the newspapers claimed back in '97, and made a nice little packet out of it. He said something like 'my lawyers have the newspapers' lawyers on speed dial).

I'll propose a slight amendment to logical's suggestion. Let's have a quango that tracks emigration pledges/ refugee housing pledges and have them report to the British people every year or so. This is, I feel, information that is firmly in the public interest.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Evening all. Thanks for the comments. I'm sorry that my photoshopping skills aren't up to morphing the bare-breasted Marianne into an axe-wielding granny.

Your article started me wondering, Richard, whether any of those 'canvas-your-nan' phone calls actually prompted older generations to think through the issues more carefully. I saw that the issue of democracy/sovereignty was top of the list in Lord Ashcroft's poll.

Lowlander said:

EPG said:

Lowlander said:

hunchman said:

In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!

Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.

So there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland now?

No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase. Also, if as now seems likely, the markets do not crash, then the entire Project Fear message will be doomed to fail. First time around, Project Fear was all they had.

How will tariffs on goods imported to NI from the EU be collected?

If they exist, they will be collected the same way they are now. Someone in an office fills in a spreadsheet and remits a payment to HMRC. There is no-one sitting at the docks charging payments on imports.

This is feasible and enforceable because non-EU imports DO currently go through ports, that is to say, there is no non-EU land border. From now on, however, there will be.

Mary McAlesse: It's not the UK but England and Wales that have voted to leave the EU.

John_M said:

Malmesbury said:

John_M said:

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

alex. said:

BenedictWhite said:

OUT said:

BenedictWhite said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their
Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...

They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.

It's more like a flat tyre.

And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!

https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/746366820899299328

To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.

Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.

It is at the same level it was 5 months ago.....

Strangely few people ever look at the 5 year graphs. They love the 24hr ones...

......

We can expect the FTSE xxx and the sterling exchange rate to be an endless source of fascination for the next few weeks.

Oh, I'm not happy about it. But stating the world has ended is utterly ridiculous. Or that everyone who doesn't want to be a member of the EU is a nazi or whatever.

Maybe it's because I have travelled (a bit) around the world. There are bags of countries out there, not in the EU. Strangely, not all of them are deserts inhabited by savage racist cannibals...

I agree, unsurprisingly. I'm going to go about my business and not worry about anything until article 50 is actually invoked.

We're about to enter a period of phony war. Perhaps that will steady the country's nerves.

I'm not sure we will get a phony war. Neither the EU or the UK are up for an economic fight. Even a shouting match will hit *both*, in the markets.

Notice that the Leavers (Boris, Gove etc) have been quite quiet. The EU government are being quite quiet - not even the usual foaming at the mouth unattributable briefings that the EU core apparatchiks like.... I remember the one about how they were going to force the Americans to charge for GPS to make Galileo pay for itself... anyway, note the silence.

@SeanT


'Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?

If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.'


Same for NI have a referendum and accept what the majority wants.

Lowlander said:

hunchman said:

In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!

Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.

So there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland now?

No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase.

Ireland isn't in Schengen because it was already a member when the agreement was signed. Schengen, like EMU, is now part of the acquis that all new members, including Scotland, will have to adopt.

another_richard said:

JosiasJessop said:

another_richard said:

MaxPB said:

RochdalePioneers said:

Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...

I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.

Cameron's problem was in mistaking his luck for ability.

Rubbish.

Cameron's problem was in having a party where many of his MPs cared more about the EU than the party's health. Which is a fair position for them to have, but it causes massive problems for the party and its management.

It was the same problem that bedevilled Major.

And you know what? Whoever replaces Cameron isn't going to do as well. Not because Cameron was lucky: because he was good. Leader for eleven years, and PM for six with two election wins.

His replacement won't match that, even against a Corbynite Labour. Because as in the 1990s, Labour will eventually regain its senses.

Cameron was lucky.

Brown, EdM, Corbyn

A clapped out Labour party with its image destroyed by Iraq, recession and sleeze.

LibDem opponents who disintegrated under the contradictions of their own party.

Then Cameron and Osborne went on the biggest vote buying spree in history.

Finally they had the convenient bogeymen of the Krankies to scare England into tactical voting for them.

There's nothing wrong with being lucky but you should never assume its going to hold

So you're saying there was no talent and skillful positioning at all? Or was it all luck in your mind?

MarqueeMark said:

Malmesbury said:

alex. said:

RealBritain said:

"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.

Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:

The British must take on the consequences of their choice.
We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue].
We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing.
This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”

The law of unintended consequences.

The French Government has already dismissed it though.

Note the quiet from the French and German governments. They are working on a deal....

Imagine if Cameron had sat down at the start of the EU re-negotiations and said to the leaders

"Ladies. Gentlemen. Close your eyes. Imagine it is June, 2016. OK? Now imagine listening to the news from London. Listening? Right. Here comes the result of the UK Referendum I have had to promise to undertake. The UK has voted 52% to 48%. To Leave the EU.

I see your eyes are open again. Good. Now - work with me to prevent that outcome...offer me what you would then be prepared to offer the UK to keep the show on the road...."

We could have just had the voters approve our Associate membership - with all manner of sweeteners. Approved 73% to 27%.

The Associate membership deal wasn't on offer precisely because it would guarantee (if offered) that plain Remain was lost. The Brexit had to come first.

Sad, stupid etc, but that is the shape of the politics, I think

Mary McAlesse: Referendum question must arise if Brexit leaders don't offer an alternative.

Floating idea of an inverse Denmark-Greenland solution to allow NI and Scotland to stay in the EU even if England and Wales leave.

Sandpit said:

nunu said:

GIN1138 said:

AndyJS said:

Channel 4 News compares Cameron to Eden and Chamberlain.

Cameron was compared to Chamberlain on telly last weekend. I wonder if he knew then that the game was up?

The look on his face tells me he did! Go have a look at that video again

Watch this video from Monday with the benefit of hindsight, and say he didn't know at this point that he was seriously worried about the result
https://youtu.be/ymneN_59ZCw

His [former] friend Steve Hilton said he'd done because he was panicking....

williamglenn said:

Mary McAlesse: Referedum question must arise if Brexit leaders don't offer an alternative.

Floating idea of an inverse Denmark-Greenland solution to allow NI and Scotland to stay in the EU even if England and Wales leave.

Er, even if that were feasible, she seems to be ignoring the fact that the unionist community in NI, including the DUP leadership was heavily in favour of Leave...

AnneJGP said:

John_M said:

Malmesbury said:

John_M said:

Malmesbury said:

SouthamObserver said:

alex. said:

BenedictWhite said:

OUT said:

BenedictWhite said:

TCPoliticalBetting said:

On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their
Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...

They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.

It's more like a flat tyre.

And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!

https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/746366820899299328

To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.

Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.

It is at the same level it was 5 months ago.....

Strangely few people ever look at the 5 year graphs. They love the 24hr ones...

People are hunting around for things that reinforce their points. The market shock was expected, but we shouldn't be happy about it. Nor should we be comparing ourselves to our trading partners. We've subjected them to a shock, and I'm sure they're unhappy about it.

We can expect the FTSE xxx and the sterling exchange rate to be an endless source of fascination for the next few weeks.

Oh, I'm not happy about it. But stating the world has ended is utterly ridiculous. Or that everyone who doesn't want to be a member of the EU is a nazi or whatever.

Maybe it's because I have travelled (a bit) around the world. There are bags of countries out there, not in the EU. Strangely, not all of them are deserts inhabited by savage racist cannibals...

I agree, unsurprisingly. I'm going to go about my business and not worry about anything until article 50 is actually invoked.

We're about to enter a period of phony war. Perhaps that will steady the country's nerves.

It seems quite likely the the EU will simply decree that the referendum result stands as invoking Article 50. We are still under their legal jurisdiction, so if that is what seems good to the EU, that is how the court will interpret the law.

We'll have to agree to disagree on this point. The article is quite clear where responsibilities lie. The member state has to notify the EC.

john_zims said:

@SeanT


'Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?

If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.'


Same for NI have a referendum and accept what the majority wants.

The problem with NI is that no-one there will vote for a United Ireland - even the republicans don't really support it. While I imagine there are plenty of people in England, Scotland and Wales who would want NI to bugger off, the NI people just won't do it.

Oh and Ireland doesn't want them either.

tlg86 said:

Ken says he will emigrate if Boris is PM.

There's a good reason to vote Boris if ever I heard one...

Malmesbury said:

MarqueeMark said:

Malmesbury said:

alex. said:

RealBritain said:

"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.

Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:

The British must take on the consequences of their choice.
We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue].
We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing.
This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”

The law of unintended consequences.

The French Government has already dismissed it though.

Note the quiet from the French and German governments. They are working on a deal....

Imagine if Cameron had sat down at the start of the EU re-negotiations and said to the leaders

"Ladies. Gentlemen. Close your eyes. Imagine it is June, 2016. OK? Now imagine listening to the news from London. Listening? Right. Here comes the result of the UK Referendum I have had to promise to undertake. The UK has voted 52% to 48%. To Leave the EU.

I see your eyes are open again. Good. Now - work with me to prevent that outcome...offer me what you would then be prepared to offer the UK to keep the show on the road...."

We could have just had the voters approve our Associate membership - with all manner of sweeteners. Approved 73% to 27%.

The Associate membership deal wasn't on offer precisely because it would guarantee (if offered) that plain Remain was lost. The Brexit had to come first.

Sad, stupid etc, but that is the shape of the politics, I think

That would be fuckwittery of the highest order by all concerned.

MarqueeMark said:

williamglenn said:

Mary McAlesse: Referendum question must arise if Brexit leaders don't offer an alternative.

Floating idea of an inverse Denmark-Greenland solution to allow NI and Scotland to stay in the EU even if England and Wales leave.

Using what currency?

Always with the awkward questions. Have a kitten and be quiet. Mary is visioning.

"an inverse Denmark-Greenland solution "

Sounds like it's an obscure rule of playing Mornington Crescent.