PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
To be honest I can't argue with that. We clearly have irreconcilable differences.
Would be a mistake for them, but it's their mistake to make.
I think they will vote to leave the UK. It'll be close, something like 53/47.
Tried to post this earlier, but don't think it worked...apologies if double posted!
Well, what better time to delurk?
I voted Remain, but with no love for the EU. I agree with those who said that most likely there would have come a point in the medium term when we’d have had to choose between full integration and leaving anyway, and the tin-earred deafness of the EU apparatchiks to their own unpopularity has reaped a terrible reward sooner than most imagined. However, I was determined to vote Remain for one reason only - the Union. I come from very close to the border (on the English side), my stepmother is Scottish and I entirely identify in the “British, not English” category. The IndyRef was (from a political perspective) the most stressful and angst-filled period I can remember. I would be willing to sacrifice a great deal - including the problems of remaining in the EU to avoid reopening this issue.
Ever since the last IndyRef, it was clear the SNP would take any excuse to do that - and so it has proved. Sturgeon is a brilliant politician - and the fact she hasn’t set a provisional date yet shows she isn’t certain she will win a second go. Out-manoeuvring her and the SNP has to be one of the main objectives for the government in the next few months. For this, Ruth is going to be crucial - it may be too late already (I fear it is), but if the Union is to survive, what she does, and what the government does with and through her are so important. She needs to be able to sell the message that while Scots did not get to stay in the EU, they would still be better off in the UK than outside - in essence, the next (sadly, I suspect, inevitable) IndyRef will be the choice of two Unions - UK or EU. And there is a strong message about the benefits of the UK over the EU for Scotland, but it will have to be made positively. As we’ve seen, Project Fear just won’t work anymore.
I’d also say, it will be crucial for those unionists who took the Leave position in Scotland - the likes of Tom Harris - to have plenty to say about the way that Scotland’s powers will be increased (e.g. in farming and fisheries) through Leave. There were still 38% who voted against the EU - they won’t necessarily be enamoured of the idea of being dragged back in.
This may all be wishful thinking - it may all be too late - but the downsides of the EU, which may just get worse over the coming months and years, give me hope that Scots would choose the Union they have, rather than the one they will have lost. But, the UK government can make no more mistakes. Picking someone like Boris would probably be such a mistake. Goodness knows if the Conservatives will pick a Remainer now, but if they do, it has to someone like Stephen Crabb, whom it would be harder to paint as a typical southern English Tory.
The result was not the one I voted for but these eurocrats demanding we leave now as it may be inconvenient if it is delayed can just go and get lost. It is the Government's choice when to serve article 50 and the timing will be at the British Governments behest, so 'put that in your pipe and smoke it Juncker'
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
You've changed your tune haven't you?
He's right - they should be given the option of seceding. Brexit is clearly a material change.
I agree but heard a good point earlier on BBC, before calling for another referendum Sturgeon would have to be certain of winning.
God, I'm angry tonight. I thought I would calm down as the day wore on. But no.
I shall now watch Ch4 news on +1 - which will turn me up another notch or two no doubt.
It's done, we have to move on. Remain lost the argument. Now Leave have to guide us through what is going to be a very tricky few years. We all have to hope that Boris, Mike, Priti, Nigel and co have called this right and we are on the cusp of glorious prosperity. If they are wrong, we may well end up going back to the EU in a few years to re-enter on the terms we are presented with.
Not much discussion on Scotland, but it appears to me that Sturgeon has got a bit problem. One thing the it feels last night brought into perspective was quite how comprehensive the defeat was in the Scottish referendum, whatever the subsequent benefits to the SNP under FPTP. Last night at 52-48 really felt like a comprehensive defeat, and never really felt close all night. The Scottish referendum was 55-45 which in comparison feels like a massacre. It's difficult to see a margin of that size being overcome, whatever the situation change with the EU. None of the problems the yes camp had at the time have been remotely resolved, and it's difficult to believe that the EU will swing it that much. Especially as it still wouldn't really be a choice between EU and not EU.
Unless the EU contorts itself into some successor membership option that will leave Scotland with oir opt-outs, vetoes and rebate I dont see how the situation has changed. The idea that such a contortion could be pulled off without any dissent from other similar sized nations who will not be able to opt out of the Eurozone (let alone Poland who have been blocked from using the Swedish solution) or have a rebate seems fanciful.
Once the shock wears off, the situation will be almost identical to before Brexit.
How much of a contortion is really needed though? The Council of Ministers can simply decide that the UK is dissolved by the end of the Acts of Union rather than Scotland seceding from a continuing UK. As far as I am aware that would be a EU ministerial decision and will not require any vote by member states.
Once that is achieved, they simply offer continuing membership as the successor to the UK in terms of EU membership. Again as this is not a treaty change it would be dealt with by QMV and there would be no veto available.
Mr. Alistair, I'd actually say that Cameron had luck but also campaigning well (at elections). However, he was full of hubris after 2015 and complacent arrogance does not win a tight vote. If he'd been as statesmanlike in campaigning as he had been in resigning, he would have won, and comfortably.
Mr. Rising, Priti Patel would be an excellent choice.
I think so too. From a progessive's point of view, having a nutter like Patel as leader would be a dream.
"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.
Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:
The British must take on the consequences of their choice. We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue]. We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing. This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”
The law of unintended consequences.
The French Government has already dismissed it though.
It's the local population and local political powerbases that may make the difference, however.
In this case, the control is via central government - the Calais area is really fed up. If they had the power, they would have pushed every single through the tunnel long, long ago.
Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...
I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.
Cameron's problem was in mistaking his luck for ability.
Rubbish.
Cameron's problem was in having a party where many of his MPs cared more about the EU than the party's health. Which is a fair position for them to have, but it causes massive problems for the party and its management.
It was the same problem that bedevilled Major.
And you know what? Whoever replaces Cameron isn't going to do as well. Not because Cameron was lucky: because he was good. Leader for eleven years, and PM for six with two election wins.
His replacement won't match that, even against a Corbynite Labour. Because as in the 1990s, Labour will eventually regain its senses.
Just like Major he pretended to he Eurosceptics that he was one of them despite being a Europhile.
He was a lucky liar. Two of the worst Labour leaders ever and he fails to win a majority then squeked.
And then completely botched the referendum. Utterly botched it. Because he was lucky, not good. And he confused one for the other.
It's a perfectly sane position to be eurosceptic yet think that a reformed EU can be gained. Like many others, you are confusing scepticism with phobia.
In 2010 he gained 97 seats. The problem was the low position he was starting from. In 2015 he actually gained 25 seats and got a majority. Compare that with 1997, 2001 and 2005.
If you want to look at liars, then look at *both* campaigns. As Farage admitted today, Leave was firmly based on lies that were so egregious that even some leavers on here disowned them.
People who dislike Cameron just say he was lucky. There's obviously much more to him than that.
Tried to post this earlier, but don't think it worked...apologies if double posted!
Well, what better time to delurk?
I voted Remain, but with no love for the EU. I agree with those who said that most likely there would have come a point in the medium term when we’d have had to choose between full integration and leaving anyway, and the tin-earred deafness of the EU apparatchiks to their own unpopularity has reaped a terrible reward sooner than most imagined. However, I was determined to vote Remain for one reason only - the Union. I come from very close to the border (on the English side), my stepmother is Scottish and I entirely identify in the “British, not English” category. The IndyRef was (from a political perspective) the most stressful and angst-filled period I can remember. I would be willing to sacrifice a great deal - including the problems of remaining in the EU to avoid reopening this issue.
I’d also say, it will be crucial for those unionists who took the Leave position in Scotland - the likes of Tom Harris - to have plenty to say about the way that Scotland’s powers will be increased (e.g. in farming and fisheries) through Leave. There were still 38% who voted against the EU - they won’t necessarily be enamoured of the idea of being dragged back in.
This may all be wishful thinking - it may all be too late - but the downsides of the EU, which may just get worse over the coming months and years, give me hope that Scots would choose the Union they have, rather than the one they will have lost. But, the UK government can make no more mistakes. Picking someone like Boris would probably be such a mistake. Goodness knows if the Conservatives will pick a Remainer now, but if they do, it has to someone like Stephen Crabb, whom it would be harder to paint as a typical southern English Tory.
Welcome Jacob, good post.
I'd write a longer reply, but I think we should all hold fire a while. I could be completely wrong, but the EU might offer something sensible that gives Scotland a palatable halfway house.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
So not as hard hit as the EU stock exchanges then? Besides which we will see what happens on Monday.
Not much discussion on Scotland, but it appears to me that Sturgeon has got a bit problem. One thing the it feels last night brought into perspective was quite how comprehensive the defeat was in the Scottish referendum, whatever the subsequent benefits to the SNP under FPTP. Last night at 52-48 really felt like a comprehensive defeat, and never really felt close all night. The Scottish referendum was 55-45 which in comparison feels like a massacre. It's difficult to see a margin of that size being overcome, whatever the situation change with the EU. None of the problems the yes camp had at the time have been remotely resolved, and it's difficult to believe that the EU will swing it that much. Especially as it still wouldn't really be a choice between EU and not EU.
Unless the EU contorts itself into some successor membership option that will leave Scotland with oir opt-outs, vetoes and rebate I dont see how the situation has changed. The idea that such a contortion could be pulled off without any dissent from other similar sized nations who will not be able to opt out of the Eurozone (let alone Poland who have been blocked from using the Swedish solution) or have a rebate seems fanciful.
Once the shock wears off, the situation will be almost identical to before Brexit.
How much of a contortion is really needed though? The Council of Ministers can simply decide that the UK is dissolved by the end of the Acts of Union rather than Scotland seceding from a continuing UK. As far as I am aware that would be a EU ministerial decision and will not require any vote by member states.
Once that is achieved, they simply offer continuing membership as the successor to the UK in terms of EU membership. Again as this is not a treaty change it would be dealt with by QMV and there would be no veto available.
Yes that seems highly plausible to me. The only question is whether there's the will in France and Germany to push it through, and I think there absolutely will be.
18-24 year olds voted 75% for the Establishment option of Remain,
No, 75% of those who voted, probably less than half of all in that age group. If they want to be heard they need to vote, not just whine on the internet.
That's a bit rich coming from a Kipper!
I think you'll find the kippers voted alright.
Only after whinging on the Internet for years.
Years?
Grow up ffs and stop whining you're like a stuck record
I am grown up, thanks. I take it from that you don't have a constructive reply?
God, I'm angry tonight. I thought I would calm down as the day wore on. But no.
I shall now watch Ch4 news on +1 - which will turn me up another notch or two no doubt.
It's done, we have to move on. Remain lost the argument. Now Leave have to guide us through what is going to be a very tricky few years. We all have to hope that Boris, Mike, Priti, Nigel and co have called this right and we are on the cusp of glorious prosperity. If they are wrong, we may well end up going back to the EU in a few years to re-enter on the terms we are presented with.
People are going to want to vent. It's still pretty raw. I can't imagine I'd be shrugging my shoulders and whistling a merry tune if it had gone the other way.
I'll not engage with the venters though, if I want a flame war there are far better places to go than PB.
God, I'm angry tonight. I thought I would calm down as the day wore on. But no.
I shall now watch Ch4 news on +1 - which will turn me up another notch or two no doubt.
You're angry?
I am incandesant at how the Labour voters who voted out are still being belittled, patted on the head and ignored by most of the chattering classes. Seriously. WTF?
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
So not as hard hit as the EU stock exchanges then? Besides which we will see what happens on Monday.
It's not a competition. The EU stock exchanges reflect levels of confidence in economies that are key export markets for us.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
It is at the same level it was 5 months ago.....
Strangely few people ever look at the 5 year graphs. They love the 24hr ones...
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
To be honest I can't argue with that. We clearly have irreconcilable differences.
Would be a mistake for them, but it's their mistake to make.
I think they will vote to leave the UK. It'll be close, something like 53/47.
I don't. But, everyone has to accept that sometimes you're on the losing side. I've been on the losing side often enough.
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
To be honest I can't argue with that. We clearly have irreconcilable differences.
Would be a mistake for them, but it's their mistake to make.
I think they will vote to leave the UK. It'll be close, something like 53/47.
Well, if parliament debate that petition about referendums soon and bring in something along those lines, the Scots will be stuck in a neverendum circle.
Tried to post this earlier, but don't think it worked...apologies if double posted!
Well, what better time to delurk?
I voted Remain, but with no love for the EU. I agree with those who said that most likely there would have come a point in the medium term when we’d have had to choose between full integration and leaving anyway, and the tin-earred deafness of the EU apparatchiks to their own unpopularity has reaped a terrible reward sooner than most imagined. However, I was determined to vote Remain for one reason only - the Union. I come from very close to the border (on the English side), my stepmother is Scottish and I entirely identify in the “British, not English” category. The IndyRef was (from a political perspective) the most stressful and angst-filled period I can remember. I would be willing to sacrifice a great deal - including the problems of remaining in the EU to avoid reopening this issue.
I’d also say, it will be crucial for those unionists who took the Leave position in Scotland - the likes of Tom Harris - to have plenty to say about the way that Scotland’s powers will be increased (e.g. in farming and fisheries) through Leave. There were still 38% who voted against the EU - they won’t necessarily be enamoured of the idea of being dragged back in.
This may all be wishful thinking - it may all be too late - but the downsides of the EU, which may just get worse over the coming months and years, give me hope that Scots would choose the Union they have, rather than the one they will have lost. But, the UK government can make no more mistakes. Picking someone like Boris would probably be such a mistake. Goodness knows if the Conservatives will pick a Remainer now, but if they do, it has to someone like Stephen Crabb, whom it would be harder to paint as a typical southern English Tory.
Welcome Jacob, good post.
I'd write a longer reply, but I think we should all hold fire a while. I could be completely wrong, but the EU might offer something sensible that gives Scotland a palatable halfway house.
Nothing, but nothing needs to happen quickly now.
Scottish Independence isn't just about the EU. They still have to answer all the economic arguments that they fudged the first time round, and they can't even shout "OIL" anymore. And yes I know there were those (including I think MalcolmG) who were in favour from a right wing perspective - independence would be a good for weaning Scotland off the reliance on public services and the public purse towards a more business friendly entrepreneurial future, but it will still be a very brave politician who actually makes that argument in a referendum.
18-24 year olds voted 75% for the Establishment option of Remain,
No, 75% of those who voted, probably less than half of all in that age group. If they want to be heard they need to vote, not just whine on the internet.
That's a bit rich coming from a Kipper!
I think you'll find the kippers voted alright.
Only after whinging on the Internet for years.
Years?
Grow up ffs and stop whining you're like a stuck record
I am grown up, thanks. I take it from that you don't have a constructive reply?
Ukip have campaigned for a referendum for years, as soon as it was granted we voted OUT.
I appreciate that is unpalatable but I'm afraid you're going to have to live with it in a grown up manner.
23 year-old Leave voter here. Scrolling through my Facebook feed before the referendum it was clear that a lot of people my age were voting Remain because they didn't want to be on the same side as Farage/Gove/Boris. Pointing out that they were instead siding with Cameron/Clegg/Blair/Sinn Fein seemed to fall on deaf ears.
No doubt some of the oldies who made this possible were just anti-immigration nuts. However, many older folk that I met on the campaign trail had thought about the decision carefully and were voting Leave for good reasons to do with restoring our democracy. Frankly I'm glad they did.
I think older voters in this perspective were a great deal less prone to Project fear. Visas to go on a city break, NO TRADE WITH ANYONE, etc. They've never known anything else.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
So not as hard hit as the EU stock exchanges then? Besides which we will see what happens on Monday.
The EU stock exchanges are denominated in euro, which is worth seven per cent more in sterling today than yesterday.
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
You've changed your tune haven't you?
He's right - they should be given the option of seceding. Brexit is clearly a material change.
I agree but heard a good point earlier on BBC, before calling for another referendum Sturgeon would have to be certain of winning.
She may be in a situation where she has no choice. In any case, what Brexit has shown is that issues of identity and sovereignty can trump the economics, and that no-one listens to experts anymore. Given all that the SNP would have a very good chance of carrying the day.
Tried to post this earlier, but don't think it worked...apologies if double posted!
Well, what better time to delurk?
I voted Remain, but with no love for the EU. I agree with those who said that most likely there would have come a point in the medium term when we’d have had to choose between full integration and leaving anyway, and the tin-earred deafness of the EU apparatchiks to their own unpopularity has reaped a terrible reward sooner than most imagined. However, I was determined to vote Remain for one reason only - the Union. I come from very close to the border (on the English side), my stepmother is Scottish and I entirely identify in the “British, not English” category. The IndyRef was (from a political perspective) the most stressful and angst-filled period I can remember. I would be willing to sacrifice a great deal - including the problems of remaining in the EU to avoid reopening this issue.
Ever since the last IndyRef, it was clear the SNP would take any excuse to do that - and so it has proved. Sturgeon is a brilliant politician - and the fact she hasn’t set a provisional date yet shows she isn’t certain she will win a second go. Out-manoeuvring her and the SNP has to be one of the main objectives for the government in the next few months. For this, Ruth is going to be crucial - it may be too late already (I fear it is), but if the Union is to survive, what she does, and what the government does with and through her are so important. She needs to be able to sell the message that while Scots did not get to stay in the EU, they would still be better off in the UK than outside - in essence, the next (sadly, I suspect, inevitable) IndyRef will be the choice of two Unions - UK or EU. And there is a strong message about the benefits of the UK over the EU for Scotland, but it will have to be made positively. As we’ve seen, Project Fear just won’t work anymore.
I’d also say, it will be crucial for those unionists who took the Leave position in Scotland - the likes of Tom Harris - to have plenty to say about the way that Scotland’s powers will be increased (e.g. in farming and fisheries) through Leave. There were still 38% who voted against the EU - they won’t necessarily be enamoured of the idea of being dragged back in.
This may all be wishful thinking - it may all be too late - but the downsides of the EU, which may just get worse over the coming months and years, give me hope that Scots would choose the Union they have, rather than the one they will have lost. But, the UK government can make no more mistakes. Picking someone like Boris would probably be such a mistake. Goodness knows if the Conservatives will pick a Remainer now, but if they do, it has to someone like Stephen Crabb, whom it would be harder to paint as a typical southern English Tory.
In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!
Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
It is at the same level it was 5 months ago.....
Strangely few people ever look at the 5 year graphs. They love the 24hr ones...
People are hunting around for things that reinforce their points. The market shock was expected, but we shouldn't be happy about it. Nor should we be comparing ourselves to our trading partners. We've subjected them to a shock, and I'm sure they're unhappy about it.
We can expect the FTSE xxx and the sterling exchange rate to be an endless source of fascination for the next few weeks.
Looking at the hysteria that is pervasive today I can't help by wonder how today's generation would cope with a real crisis (nobody died) rather than what is ultimately a dispute about trade and migration. We even had a vote about it for goodness sake.
The whole bloody country seems to need a cold drink followed by a lie down.
Looking at the hysteria that is pervasive today I can't help by wonder how today's generation would cope with a real crisis (nobody died) rather than what is ultimately a dispute about trade and migration. We even had a vote about it for goodness sake.
The whole bloody country seems to need a cold drink followed by a lie down.
The protesters are just the usual bubble crowd of Tarquins and Cressidas in central London, who quite literally have nothing else to do.
Channel 4 News at 7pm was unbelievably biased against Brexit, in a way that made me think "why? what is the point of this bias?"
Tried to post this earlier, but don't think it worked...apologies if double posted!
Well, what better time to delurk?
I voted Remain, but with no love for the EU. I agree with those who said that most likely there would have come a point in the medium term when we’d have had to choose between full integration and leaving anyway, and the tin-earred deafness of the EU apparatchiks to their own unpopularity has reaped a terrible reward sooner than most imagined. However, I was determined to vote Remain for one reason only - the Union. I come from very close to the border (on the English side), my stepmother is Scottish and I entirely identify in the “British, not English” category. The IndyRef was (from a political perspective) the most stressful and angst-filled period I can remember. I would be willing to sacrifice a great deal - including the problems of remaining in the EU to avoid reopening this issue.
Ever since the last IndyRef, it was clear the SNP would take any excuse to do that - and so it has proved. Sturgeon is a brilliant politician - and the fact she hasn’t set a provisional date yet shows she isn’t certain she will win a second go. Out-manoeuvring her and the SNP has to be one of the main objectives for the government in the next few months. For this, Ruth is going to be crucial - it may be too late already (I fear it is), but if the Union is to survive, what she does, and what the government does with and through her are so important. She needs to be able to sell the message that while Scots did not get to stay in the EU, they would still be better off in the UK than outside - in essence, the next (sadly, I suspect, inevitable) IndyRef will be the choice of two Unions - UK or EU. And there is a strong message about the benefits of the UK over the EU for Scotland, but it will have to be made positively. As we’ve seen, Project Fear just won’t work anymore.
I’d also say, it will be crucial for those unionists who took the Leave position in Scotland - the likes of Tom Harris - to have plenty to say about the way that Scotland’s powers will be increased (e.g. in farming and fisheries) through Leave. There were still 38% who voted against the EU - they won’t necessarily be enamoured of the idea of being dragged back in.
This may all be wishful thinking - it may all be too late - but the downsides of the EU, which may just get worse over the coming months and years, give me hope that Scots would choose the Union they have, rather than the one they will have lost. But, the UK government can make no more mistakes. Picking someone like Boris would probably be such a mistake. Goodness knows if the Conservatives will pick a Remainer now, but if they do, it has to someone like Stephen Crabb, whom it would be harder to paint as a typical southern English Tory.
Welcome JacobD. Going to be fascinating times in Scotland!
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
You've changed your tune haven't you?
He's right - they should be given the option of seceding. Brexit is clearly a material change.
I agree but heard a good point earlier on BBC, before calling for another referendum Sturgeon would have to be certain of winning.
She may be in a situation where she has no choice. In any case, what Brexit has shown is that issues of identity and sovereignty can trump the economics, and that no-one listens to experts anymore. Given all that the SNP would have a very good chance of carrying the day.
Well, perhaps they did listen this time in Scotland. The more pertinent point would be that isolation in a Britain dominated by a nastier, nationalistic England is on offer after a NO this time.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
So not as hard hit as the EU stock exchanges then? Besides which we will see what happens on Monday.
It's not a competition. The EU stock exchanges reflect levels of confidence in economies that are key export markets for us.
If we're about to negotiate with a group of countries that the great and the good insist are in a much stronger bargaining position than us, surely right now it is a competition and anything which makes it harder for them to play hard-ball is a plus in our column.
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
You've changed your tune haven't you?
He's right - they should be given the option of seceding. Brexit is clearly a material change.
I agree but heard a good point earlier on BBC, before calling for another referendum Sturgeon would have to be certain of winning.
She may be in a situation where she has no choice. In any case, what Brexit has shown is that issues of identity and sovereignty can trump the economics, and that no-one listens to experts anymore. Given all that the SNP would have a very good chance of carrying the day.
I would welcome Scottish independence, I thought Ukip were hypocritical for campaigning to keep them. Them voting to leave the UK is far from certain.
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
You've changed your tune haven't you?
He's right - they should be given the option of seceding. Brexit is clearly a material change.
I agree but heard a good point earlier on BBC, before calling for another referendum Sturgeon would have to be certain of winning.
She may be in a situation where she has no choice. In any case, what Brexit has shown is that issues of identity and sovereignty can trump the economics, and that no-one listens to experts anymore. Given all that the SNP would have a very good chance of carrying the day.
I don't think the economic risks of Brexit were ever close to matching the economic risks of Sindy. Brexit issues are all about technicalities and margins, Sindy is/was about fundamentals.
In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!
Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.
You hardly notice borders between European nations, why should you notice borders between Scotland and England. I guess we might need a new name to replace 'United Kingdom' and a deconstructed flag.
Instead of invoking Article 50, a simpler solution would be for England and Wales to withdraw from the UK. That would get them out of the EU automatically, as it would have for Scotland had they withdrawn from the UK. And it would leave Scotland and Northern Ireland in the UK and hence in the EU.
Then maybe Northern Ireland could join ROI and the UK could change its name to Scotland.
In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!
Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.
Evening all. Thanks for the comments. I'm sorry that my photoshopping skills aren't up to morphing the bare-breasted Marianne into an axe-wielding granny.
In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!
Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.
So there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland now?
No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase. Also, if as now seems likely, the markets do not crash, then the entire Project Fear message will be doomed to fail. First time around, Project Fear was all they had.
18-24 year olds voted 75% for the Establishment option of Remain,
No, 75% of those who voted, probably less than half of all in that age group. If they want to be heard they need to vote, not just whine on the internet.
That's a bit rich coming from a Kipper!
I think you'll find the kippers voted alright.
Only after whinging on the Internet for years.
Years?
Grow up ffs and stop whining you're like a stuck record
I am grown up, thanks. I take it from that you don't have a constructive reply?
Ukip have campaigned for a referendum for years, as soon as it was granted we voted OUT.
I appreciate that is unpalatable but I'm afraid you're going to have to live with it in a grown up manner.
You have evidently failed to notice, but I have freely accepted the result and am perfectly at ease with it. I just want it to work and for the divisions it has created, and may widen, to heal.
Channel 4 News compares Cameron to Eden and Chamberlain.
Cameron was compared to Chamberlain on telly last weekend. I wonder if he knew then that the game was up?
The look on his face tells me he did! Go have a look at that video again
Watch this video from Monday with the benefit of hindsight, and say he didn't know at this point that he was seriously worried about the result https://youtu.be/ymneN_59ZCw
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
It is at the same level it was 5 months ago.....
Strangely few people ever look at the 5 year graphs. They love the 24hr ones...
People are hunting around for things that reinforce their points. The market shock was expected, but we shouldn't be happy about it. Nor should we be comparing ourselves to our trading partners. We've subjected them to a shock, and I'm sure they're unhappy about it.
We can expect the FTSE xxx and the sterling exchange rate to be an endless source of fascination for the next few weeks.
Oh, I'm not happy about it. But stating the world has ended is utterly ridiculous. Or that everyone who doesn't want to be a member of the EU is a nazi or whatever.
Maybe it's because I have travelled (a bit) around the world. There are bags of countries out there, not in the EU. Strangely, not all of them are deserts inhabited by savage racist cannibals...
Evening all. Thanks for the comments. I'm sorry that my photoshopping skills aren't up to morphing the bare-breasted Marianne into an axe-wielding granny.
It was an interesting article Richard. We have been blessed with some good 'uns over the last month or so.
How many people who say this actually go through with it?
(As an aside, yonks ago I heard an interview with the late Paul Daniels when he said he never said what the newspapers claimed back in '97, and made a nice little packet out of it. He said something like 'my lawyers have the newspapers' lawyers on speed dial).
The result was not the one I voted for but these eurocrats demanding we leave now as it may be inconvenient if it is delayed can just go and get lost. It is the Government's choice when to serve article 50 and the timing will be at the British Governments behest, so 'put that in your pipe and smoke it Juncker'
In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!
Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.
So there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland now?
No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase. Also, if as now seems likely, the markets do not crash, then the entire Project Fear message will be doomed to fail. First time around, Project Fear was all they had.
How will tariffs on goods imported to NI from the EU be collected?
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
Not to mention that day1 is the start of the process - and will probably get steadily worse as the uncertainty continues.
She may be in a situation where she has no choice. In any case, what Brexit has shown is that issues of identity and sovereignty can trump the economics, and that no-one listens to experts anymore. Given all that the SNP would have a very good chance of carrying the day.
I don't think the economic risks of Brexit were ever close to matching the economic risks of Sindy. Brexit issues are all about technicalities and margins, Sindy is/was about fundamentals.
However, whether this is true or not, the lack of economic collapse following Brexit will leave these claims as toothless threats which people will not believe. The win for Brexit and subsequent lack of armageddon seriously harms any hope for a second No win in Scotland.
Instead of invoking Article 50, a simpler solution would be for England and Wales to withdraw from the UK. That would get them out of the EU automatically, as it would have for Scotland had they withdrawn from the UK. And it would leave Scotland and Northern Ireland in the UK and hence in the EU.
Then maybe Northern Ireland could join ROI and the UK could change its name to Scotland.
The thought of the SNP, via the UK (sorry, Scottish) government, having veto power on the UN Security Council quickly rules this method out...
The result was not the one I voted for but these eurocrats demanding we leave now as it may be inconvenient if it is delayed can just go and get lost. It is the Government's choice when to serve article 50 and the timing will be at the British Governments behest, so 'put that in your pipe and smoke it Juncker'
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
It is at the same level it was 5 months ago.....
Strangely few people ever look at the 5 year graphs. They love the 24hr ones...
People are hunting around for things that reinforce their points. The market shock was expected, but we shouldn't be happy about it. Nor should we be comparing ourselves to our trading partners. We've subjected them to a shock, and I'm sure they're unhappy about it.
We can expect the FTSE xxx and the sterling exchange rate to be an endless source of fascination for the next few weeks.
Oh, I'm not happy about it. But stating the world has ended is utterly ridiculous. Or that everyone who doesn't want to be a member of the EU is a nazi or whatever.
Maybe it's because I have travelled (a bit) around the world. There are bags of countries out there, not in the EU. Strangely, not all of them are deserts inhabited by savage racist cannibals...
I agree, unsurprisingly. I'm going to go about my business and not worry about anything until article 50 is actually invoked.
We're about to enter a period of phony war. Perhaps that will steady the country's nerves.
In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!
Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.
So there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland now?
No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase. Also, if as now seems likely, the markets do not crash, then the entire Project Fear message will be doomed to fail. First time around, Project Fear was all they had.
How will tariffs on goods imported to NI from the EU be collected?
If they exist, they will be collected the same way they are now. Someone in an office fills in a spreadsheet and remits a payment to HMRC. There is no-one sitting at the docks charging payments on imports.
How many people who say this actually go through with it?
(As an aside, yonks ago I heard an interview with the late Paul Daniels when he said he never said what the newspapers claimed back in '97, and made a nice little packet out of it. He said something like 'my lawyers have the newspapers' lawyers on speed dial).
I'll propose a slight amendment to logical's suggestion. Let's have a quango that tracks emigration pledges/ refugee housing pledges and have them report to the British people every year or so. This is, I feel, information that is firmly in the public interest.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
Not to mention that day1 is the start of the process - and will probably get steadily worse as the uncertainty continues.
It's never (well rarely - 2008 probably an exception) the short term noise that's the problem with the markets. It the relentless small day upon day, month upon month falls that you don't seem to notice until you pull up the six month charge and go WOW!
Evening all. Thanks for the comments. I'm sorry that my photoshopping skills aren't up to morphing the bare-breasted Marianne into an axe-wielding granny.
Your article started me wondering, Richard, whether any of those 'canvas-your-nan' phone calls actually prompted older generations to think through the issues more carefully. I saw that the issue of democracy/sovereignty was top of the list in Lord Ashcroft's poll.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
Someone needs to tell her that the FTSE 100 finished UP on the week. Yes, that's UP on the week.
Only in sterling, not in real money
Edit to add: the only things that are up are US Dollar earners, such as Shell
Do u think U.K economy will rebalance away from financial services to manufacturing and still grow to trend (well I mean new normal trend).
In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!
Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.
So there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland now?
No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase. Also, if as now seems likely, the markets do not crash, then the entire Project Fear message will be doomed to fail. First time around, Project Fear was all they had.
How will tariffs on goods imported to NI from the EU be collected?
If they exist, they will be collected the same way they are now. Someone in an office fills in a spreadsheet and remits a payment to HMRC. There is no-one sitting at the docks charging payments on imports.
This is feasible and enforceable because non-EU imports DO currently go through ports, that is to say, there is no non-EU land border. From now on, however, there will be.
Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...
I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.
Cameron's problem was in mistaking his luck for ability.
Rubbish.
Cameron's problem was in having a party where many of his MPs cared more about the EU than the party's health. Which is a fair position for them to have, but it causes massive problems for the party and its management.
It was the same problem that bedevilled Major.
And you know what? Whoever replaces Cameron isn't going to do as well. Not because Cameron was lucky: because he was good. Leader for eleven years, and PM for six with two election wins.
His replacement won't match that, even against a Corbynite Labour. Because as in the 1990s, Labour will eventually regain its senses.
Cameron was lucky.
Brown, EdM, Corbyn
A clapped out Labour party with its image destroyed by Iraq, recession and sleeze.
LibDem opponents who disintegrated under the contradictions of their own party.
Then Cameron and Osborne went on the biggest vote buying spree in history.
Finally they had the convenient bogeymen of the Krankies to scare England into tactical voting for them.
There's nothing wrong with being lucky but you should never assume its going to hold.
How many people who say this actually go through with it?
(As an aside, yonks ago I heard an interview with the late Paul Daniels when he said he never said what the newspapers claimed back in '97, and made a nice little packet out of it. He said something like 'my lawyers have the newspapers' lawyers on speed dial).
I'll propose a slight amendment to logical's suggestion. Let's have a quango that tracks emigration pledges/ refugee housing pledges and have them report to the British people every year or so. This is, I feel, information that is firmly in the public interest.
Knowing the way government works, the quango will probably involve five thousand people tracking an emigration pledge by a Mrs Emily Muggins and a refugee housing pledge by a Mr T Alen Tless Singer.
We should crowdsource it instead. Pay me £100,000 (plus £3 million for my consultant) and I'll set something up. Badly.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
It is at the same level it was 5 months ago.....
Strangely few people ever look at the 5 year graphs. They love the 24hr ones...
......
We can expect the FTSE xxx and the sterling exchange rate to be an endless source of fascination for the next few weeks.
Oh, I'm not happy about it. But stating the world has ended is utterly ridiculous. Or that everyone who doesn't want to be a member of the EU is a nazi or whatever.
Maybe it's because I have travelled (a bit) around the world. There are bags of countries out there, not in the EU. Strangely, not all of them are deserts inhabited by savage racist cannibals...
I agree, unsurprisingly. I'm going to go about my business and not worry about anything until article 50 is actually invoked.
We're about to enter a period of phony war. Perhaps that will steady the country's nerves.
I'm not sure we will get a phony war. Neither the EU or the UK are up for an economic fight. Even a shouting match will hit *both*, in the markets.
Notice that the Leavers (Boris, Gove etc) have been quite quiet. The EU government are being quite quiet - not even the usual foaming at the mouth unattributable briefings that the EU core apparatchiks like.... I remember the one about how they were going to force the Americans to charge for GPS to make Galileo pay for itself... anyway, note the silence.
"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.
Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:
The British must take on the consequences of their choice. We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue]. We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing. This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”
The law of unintended consequences.
The French Government has already dismissed it though.
Note the quiet from the French and German governments. They are working on a deal....
Imagine if Cameron had sat down at the start of the EU re-negotiations and said to the leaders
"Ladies. Gentlemen. Close your eyes. Imagine it is June, 2016. OK? Now imagine listening to the news from London. Listening? Right. Here comes the result of the UK Referendum I have had to promise to undertake. The UK has voted 52% to 48%. To Leave the EU.
I see your eyes are open again. Good. Now - work with me to prevent that outcome...offer me what you would then be prepared to offer the UK to keep the show on the road...."
We could have just had the voters approve our Associate membership - with all manner of sweeteners. Approved 73% to 27%.
'Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.'
Same for NI have a referendum and accept what the majority wants.
In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!
Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.
So there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland now?
No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase.
Ireland isn't in Schengen because it was already a member when the agreement was signed. Schengen, like EMU, is now part of the acquis that all new members, including Scotland, will have to adopt.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
It is at the same level it was 5 months ago.....
Strangely few people ever look at the 5 year graphs. They love the 24hr ones...
People are hunting around for things that reinforce their points. The market shock was expected, but we shouldn't be happy about it. Nor should we be comparing ourselves to our trading partners. We've subjected them to a shock, and I'm sure they're unhappy about it.
We can expect the FTSE xxx and the sterling exchange rate to be an endless source of fascination for the next few weeks.
Oh, I'm not happy about it. But stating the world has ended is utterly ridiculous. Or that everyone who doesn't want to be a member of the EU is a nazi or whatever.
Maybe it's because I have travelled (a bit) around the world. There are bags of countries out there, not in the EU. Strangely, not all of them are deserts inhabited by savage racist cannibals...
I agree, unsurprisingly. I'm going to go about my business and not worry about anything until article 50 is actually invoked.
We're about to enter a period of phony war. Perhaps that will steady the country's nerves.
It seems quite likely the the EU will simply decree that the referendum result stands as invoking Article 50. We are still under their legal jurisdiction, so if that is what seems good to the EU, that is how the court will interpret the law.
Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...
I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.
Cameron's problem was in mistaking his luck for ability.
Rubbish.
Cameron's problem was in having a party where many of his MPs cared more about the EU than the party's health. Which is a fair position for them to have, but it causes massive problems for the party and its management.
It was the same problem that bedevilled Major.
And you know what? Whoever replaces Cameron isn't going to do as well. Not because Cameron was lucky: because he was good. Leader for eleven years, and PM for six with two election wins.
His replacement won't match that, even against a Corbynite Labour. Because as in the 1990s, Labour will eventually regain its senses.
Cameron was lucky.
Brown, EdM, Corbyn
A clapped out Labour party with its image destroyed by Iraq, recession and sleeze.
LibDem opponents who disintegrated under the contradictions of their own party.
Then Cameron and Osborne went on the biggest vote buying spree in history.
Finally they had the convenient bogeymen of the Krankies to scare England into tactical voting for them.
There's nothing wrong with being lucky but you should never assume its going to hold
So you're saying there was no talent and skillful positioning at all? Or was it all luck in your mind?
John McDonnell bullish about Labour's prospects at a snap general election.
Curiously there will not be one. Primarily because:
1. The fixed term parliament act.
2. We need stability not snap elections.
3. Who ever takes over as PM will not be stupid,
Small majority, not many disaffected people needed for a vote of confidence.
Do you suppose the Tory ranks are filled with Europhiles in self destruct mode?
Enough, and the country will thank them.
No, and er no they will not. What is more the Europhiles may find they have no troops.
Troops? What are you on about? You don't seem to have understood the depth of feeling in the ranks. They are better off out of the party if they want to survive, jump before they get deselected.
"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.
Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:
The British must take on the consequences of their choice. We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue]. We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing. This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”
The law of unintended consequences.
The French Government has already dismissed it though.
Note the quiet from the French and German governments. They are working on a deal....
Imagine if Cameron had sat down at the start of the EU re-negotiations and said to the leaders
"Ladies. Gentlemen. Close your eyes. Imagine it is June, 2016. OK? Now imagine listening to the news from London. Listening? Right. Here comes the result of the UK Referendum I have had to promise to undertake. The UK has voted 52% to 48%. To Leave the EU.
I see your eyes are open again. Good. Now - work with me to prevent that outcome...offer me what you would then be prepared to offer the UK to keep the show on the road...."
We could have just had the voters approve our Associate membership - with all manner of sweeteners. Approved 73% to 27%.
The Associate membership deal wasn't on offer precisely because it would guarantee (if offered) that plain Remain was lost. The Brexit had to come first.
Sad, stupid etc, but that is the shape of the politics, I think
We can keep Scotland in the Union but we need to make sure we avoid a right wing Tory government. If we get a decent deal with the EU and a progressive government at Westminster, the Union should be fine.
It seems quite likely the the EU will simply decree that the referendum result stands as invoking Article 50. We are still under their legal jurisdiction, so if that is what seems good to the EU, that is how the court will interpret the law.
Can't do that - the Referendum was merely advisory. The Govt. could choose to ignore it. OK, it would be a piano wire/lamp-post/politician interface event. But they can't do anything until we trigger Article 50.
Channel 4 News compares Cameron to Eden and Chamberlain.
Cameron was compared to Chamberlain on telly last weekend. I wonder if he knew then that the game was up?
The look on his face tells me he did! Go have a look at that video again
Watch this video from Monday with the benefit of hindsight, and say he didn't know at this point that he was seriously worried about the result https://youtu.be/ymneN_59ZCw
His [former] friend Steve Hilton said he'd done because he was panicking....
Your article started me wondering, Richard, whether any of those 'canvas-your-nan' phone calls actually prompted older generations to think through the issues more carefully. I saw that the issue of democracy/sovereignty was top of the list in Lord Ashcroft's poll.
Interesting question. I don't how much impact that initiative had, though.
Mary McAlesse: Referedum question must arise if Brexit leaders don't offer an alternative.
Floating idea of an inverse Denmark-Greenland solution to allow NI and Scotland to stay in the EU even if England and Wales leave.
Er, even if that were feasible, she seems to be ignoring the fact that the unionist community in NI, including the DUP leadership was heavily in favour of Leave...
The result was not the one I voted for but these eurocrats demanding we leave now as it may be inconvenient if it is delayed can just go and get lost. It is the Government's choice when to serve article 50 and the timing will be at the British Governments behest, so 'put that in your pipe and smoke it Juncker'
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
It is at the same level it was 5 months ago.....
Strangely few people ever look at the 5 year graphs. They love the 24hr ones...
People are hunting around for things that reinforce their points. The market shock was expected, but we shouldn't be happy about it. Nor should we be comparing ourselves to our trading partners. We've subjected them to a shock, and I'm sure they're unhappy about it.
We can expect the FTSE xxx and the sterling exchange rate to be an endless source of fascination for the next few weeks.
Oh, I'm not happy about it. But stating the world has ended is utterly ridiculous. Or that everyone who doesn't want to be a member of the EU is a nazi or whatever.
Maybe it's because I have travelled (a bit) around the world. There are bags of countries out there, not in the EU. Strangely, not all of them are deserts inhabited by savage racist cannibals...
I agree, unsurprisingly. I'm going to go about my business and not worry about anything until article 50 is actually invoked.
We're about to enter a period of phony war. Perhaps that will steady the country's nerves.
It seems quite likely the the EU will simply decree that the referendum result stands as invoking Article 50. We are still under their legal jurisdiction, so if that is what seems good to the EU, that is how the court will interpret the law.
We'll have to agree to disagree on this point. The article is quite clear where responsibilities lie. The member state has to notify the EC.
'Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.'
Same for NI have a referendum and accept what the majority wants.
The problem with NI is that no-one there will vote for a United Ireland - even the republicans don't really support it. While I imagine there are plenty of people in England, Scotland and Wales who would want NI to bugger off, the NI people just won't do it.
In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!
Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.
So there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland now?
No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase. Also, if as now seems likely, the markets do not crash, then the entire Project Fear message will be doomed to fail. First time around, Project Fear was all they had.
How will tariffs on goods imported to NI from the EU be collected?
If they exist, they will be collected the same way they are now. Someone in an office fills in a spreadsheet and remits a payment to HMRC. There is no-one sitting at the docks charging payments on imports.
This is feasible and enforceable because non-EU imports DO currently go through ports, that is to say, there is no non-EU land border. From now on, however, there will be.
You seem to have a touching belief in the ability of modern ports to form a barrier to anything. In practise, self reporting on what is in the containers that go in and out is what happens. The number that are actually touched, let alone inspected by customs is tiny.
"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.
Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:
The British must take on the consequences of their choice. We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue]. We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing. This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”
The law of unintended consequences.
The French Government has already dismissed it though.
Note the quiet from the French and German governments. They are working on a deal....
Imagine if Cameron had sat down at the start of the EU re-negotiations and said to the leaders
"Ladies. Gentlemen. Close your eyes. Imagine it is June, 2016. OK? Now imagine listening to the news from London. Listening? Right. Here comes the result of the UK Referendum I have had to promise to undertake. The UK has voted 52% to 48%. To Leave the EU.
I see your eyes are open again. Good. Now - work with me to prevent that outcome...offer me what you would then be prepared to offer the UK to keep the show on the road...."
We could have just had the voters approve our Associate membership - with all manner of sweeteners. Approved 73% to 27%.
The Associate membership deal wasn't on offer precisely because it would guarantee (if offered) that plain Remain was lost. The Brexit had to come first.
Sad, stupid etc, but that is the shape of the politics, I think
That would be fuckwittery of the highest order by all concerned.
The result was not the one I voted for but these eurocrats demanding we leave now as it may be inconvenient if it is delayed can just go and get lost. It is the Government's choice when to serve article 50 and the timing will be at the British Governments behest, so 'put that in your pipe and smoke it Juncker'
'Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.'
Same for NI have a referendum and accept what the majority wants.
The problem with NI is that no-one there will vote for a United Ireland - even the republicans don't really support it. While I imagine there are plenty of people in England, Scotland and Wales who would want NI to bugger off, the NI people just won't do it.
Oh and Ireland doesn't want them either.
Northern Ireland and Scotland together however, there's a shared history. Plus Scotland might be able to get to the Euros next time with their help.
Comments
Well, what better time to delurk?
I voted Remain, but with no love for the EU. I agree with those who said that most likely there would have come a point in the medium term when we’d have had to choose between full integration and leaving anyway, and the tin-earred deafness of the EU apparatchiks to their own unpopularity has reaped a terrible reward sooner than most imagined. However, I was determined to vote Remain for one reason only - the Union. I come from very close to the border (on the English side), my stepmother is Scottish and I entirely identify in the “British, not English” category. The IndyRef was (from a political perspective) the most stressful and angst-filled period I can remember. I would be willing to sacrifice a great deal - including the problems of remaining in the EU to avoid reopening this issue.
Ever since the last IndyRef, it was clear the SNP would take any excuse to do that - and so it has proved. Sturgeon is a brilliant politician - and the fact she hasn’t set a provisional date yet shows she isn’t certain she will win a second go. Out-manoeuvring her and the SNP has to be one of the main objectives for the government in the next few months. For this, Ruth is going to be crucial - it may be too late already (I fear it is), but if the Union is to survive, what she does, and what the government does with and through her are so important. She needs to be able to sell the message that while Scots did not get to stay in the EU, they would still be better off in the UK than outside - in essence, the next (sadly, I suspect, inevitable) IndyRef will be the choice of two Unions - UK or EU. And there is a strong message about the benefits of the UK over the EU for Scotland, but it will have to be made positively. As we’ve seen, Project Fear just won’t work anymore.
I’d also say, it will be crucial for those unionists who took the Leave position in Scotland - the likes of Tom Harris - to have plenty to say about the way that Scotland’s powers will be increased (e.g. in farming and fisheries) through Leave. There were still 38% who voted against the EU - they won’t necessarily be enamoured of the idea of being dragged back in.
This may all be wishful thinking - it may all be too late - but the downsides of the EU, which may just get worse over the coming months and years, give me hope that Scots would choose the Union they have, rather than the one they will have lost. But, the UK government can make no more mistakes. Picking someone like Boris would probably be such a mistake. Goodness knows if the Conservatives will pick a Remainer now, but if they do, it has to someone like Stephen Crabb, whom it would be harder to paint as a typical southern English Tory.
Once that is achieved, they simply offer continuing membership as the successor to the UK in terms of EU membership. Again as this is not a treaty change it would be dealt with by QMV and there would be no veto available.
In 2010 he gained 97 seats. The problem was the low position he was starting from. In 2015 he actually gained 25 seats and got a majority. Compare that with 1997, 2001 and 2005.
If you want to look at liars, then look at *both* campaigns. As Farage admitted today, Leave was firmly based on lies that were so egregious that even some leavers on here disowned them.
People who dislike Cameron just say he was lucky. There's obviously much more to him than that.
I'd write a longer reply, but I think we should all hold fire a while. I could be completely wrong, but the EU might offer something sensible that gives Scotland a palatable halfway house.
Nothing, but nothing needs to happen quickly now.
I'll not engage with the venters though, if I want a flame war there are far better places to go than PB.
I am incandesant at how the Labour voters who voted out are still being belittled, patted on the head and ignored by most of the chattering classes. Seriously. WTF?
It is at the same level it was 5 months ago.....
Strangely few people ever look at the 5 year graphs. They love the 24hr ones...
I appreciate that is unpalatable but I'm afraid you're going to have to live with it in a grown up manner.
Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.
We can expect the FTSE xxx and the sterling exchange rate to be an endless source of fascination for the next few weeks.
The whole bloody country seems to need a cold drink followed by a lie down.
Channel 4 News at 7pm was unbelievably biased against Brexit, in a way that made me think "why? what is the point of this bias?"
I guess we might need a new name to replace 'United Kingdom' and a deconstructed flag.
Then maybe Northern Ireland could join ROI and the UK could change its name to Scotland.
No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase. Also, if as now seems likely, the markets do not crash, then the entire Project Fear message will be doomed to fail. First time around, Project Fear was all they had.
Sorry if that confuses you.
https://youtu.be/ymneN_59ZCw
Maybe it's because I have travelled (a bit) around the world. There are bags of countries out there, not in the EU. Strangely, not all of them are deserts inhabited by savage racist cannibals...
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/06/24/nigel-farage-350-million-pledge-to-fund-the-nhs-was-a-mistake/
You know - as he said to a pair of Iranian refugees.
(As an aside, yonks ago I heard an interview with the late Paul Daniels when he said he never said what the newspapers claimed back in '97, and made a nice little packet out of it. He said something like 'my lawyers have the newspapers' lawyers on speed dial).
We're about to enter a period of phony war. Perhaps that will steady the country's nerves.
Brown, EdM, Corbyn
A clapped out Labour party with its image destroyed by Iraq, recession and sleeze.
LibDem opponents who disintegrated under the contradictions of their own party.
Then Cameron and Osborne went on the biggest vote buying spree in history.
Finally they had the convenient bogeymen of the Krankies to scare England into tactical voting for them.
There's nothing wrong with being lucky but you should never assume its going to hold.
We should crowdsource it instead. Pay me £100,000 (plus £3 million for my consultant) and I'll set something up. Badly.
Notice that the Leavers (Boris, Gove etc) have been quite quiet. The EU government are being quite quiet - not even the usual foaming at the mouth unattributable briefings that the EU core apparatchiks like.... I remember the one about how they were going to force the Americans to charge for GPS to make Galileo pay for itself... anyway, note the silence.
"Ladies. Gentlemen. Close your eyes. Imagine it is June, 2016. OK? Now imagine listening to the news from London. Listening? Right. Here comes the result of the UK Referendum I have had to promise to undertake. The UK has voted 52% to 48%. To Leave the EU.
I see your eyes are open again. Good. Now - work with me to prevent that outcome...offer me what you would then be prepared to offer the UK to keep the show on the road...."
We could have just had the voters approve our Associate membership - with all manner of sweeteners. Approved 73% to 27%.
'Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.'
Same for NI have a referendum and accept what the majority wants.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=H2-1u8xvk54
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=v1CXY5NHvms
Good night all - exhausted after 2 hours sleep last night but so incredibly happy that my country has chosen the right path.
Sad, stupid etc, but that is the shape of the politics, I think
Floating idea of an inverse Denmark-Greenland solution to allow NI and Scotland to stay in the EU even if England and Wales leave.
Oh and Ireland doesn't want them either.
Sounds like it's an obscure rule of playing Mornington Crescent.