OT , in reply to AndyJS, I think - That London secession petition will be up to 200,000 by next week, at that current rate. Extraordinary times.
Time for an English parliament, located in Knowsley...
With accommodation blocks in Skelmersdale....
Yep, we might actually get politicians who would listen to, and care about, the WWC and WNWC if they had to live and work among them...
I wonder if the local Labour parties in WWC areas have taken the subtle hint from today's events. I say subtle, but it's about as subtle as @TSE's pop music references!
They need to find good and experienced local councillors for Parliamentary seats, not some jumped up young Islingtonite SpAd from Head Office, who doesn't have anything in common with their constituents.
I was shocked by a report from a Kipper (I presume) from the Doncaster count where the MPs (Milliband et al) normally resident in Guardian reading left leaning areas of London buggered of as soon as it looked bad to leave their workers to go down to a 104K to 46K defeat. Then there is Mandelson. Where do political parties find these people and why do they think it's a good idea to parachute them in?
Not much discussion on Scotland, but it appears to me that Sturgeon has got a bit problem. One thing the it feels last night brought into perspective was quite how comprehensive the defeat was in the Scottish referendum, whatever the subsequent benefits to the SNP under FPTP. Last night at 52-48 really felt like a comprehensive defeat, and never really felt close all night. The Scottish referendum was 55-45 which in comparison feels like a massacre. It's difficult to see a margin of that size being overcome, whatever the situation change with the EU. None of the problems the yes camp had at the time have been remotely resolved, and it's difficult to believe that the EU will swing it that much. Especially as it still wouldn't really be a choice between EU and not EU.
How do you know it will not be, EU may well drop a strong hint that they will fastrack Scotland
@Paw.....I am still a sprightly 40 something (can you do a 100 push ups and run up a 3 mile hill in 40 degrees), and only drink after 7.00 pm.
I think you mistake my frustration about how racist and selfish our oldies are in the UK, and how they clearly do not give a flying fuck about young people. I cannot understand the discrepancy in voting patterns under any other prism.
O/T Warning! Avoid upgrade to Windows 10. Has a bug which results in frequent script error messages which can't be suppressed even when choosing the correct settings to do so. If you're happy with the OS which you have stick with it.
I wish there was a button that said "No thank you, I do not wish to upgrade to Windows 10".
And another when it has still tried to get you to upgrade for the umpteenth time that said "Will you just fuck off and LEAVE ME ALONE. NO, I DO NOT WANT TO UPGRADE."
You should install a little application called "GWX Control Panel" that shuts off the messages.
PM me if you need more info, I deal with this crap for a day job.
As the Queen would say "oh bad luck"
I do IT for SMEs, a lot of them don't have a Domain so can't control updates etc centrally. Let's say I've had a busy few months dealing with all this crap, MS deserve to lose serious market share (which they are, to Macs and tablets) over pulling this crap on their customers.
Funnily enough so do I though our customers are larger and generally have domain controllers.
They're the easier ones to deal with - an office of 5 people can take as much time as an office of 50 that's set up with DC, WSUS, WDS etc. But hey ho, that's customers for you, you can recommend as much as you like but they're the one paying the bills.
Not much discussion on Scotland, but it appears to me that Sturgeon has got a bit problem. One thing the it feels last night brought into perspective was quite how comprehensive the defeat was in the Scottish referendum, whatever the subsequent benefits to the SNP under FPTP. Last night at 52-48 really felt like a comprehensive defeat, and never really felt close all night. The Scottish referendum was 55-45 which in comparison feels like a massacre. It's difficult to see a margin of that size being overcome, whatever the situation change with the EU. None of the problems the yes camp had at the time have been remotely resolved, and it's difficult to believe that the EU will swing it that much. Especially as it still wouldn't really be a choice between EU and not EU.
Unless the EU contorts itself into some successor membership option that will leave Scotland with oir opt-outs, vetoes and rebate I dont see how the situation has changed. The idea that such a contortion could be pulled off without any dissent from other similar sized nations who will not be able to opt out of the Eurozone (let alone Poland who have been blocked from using the Swedish solution) or have a rebate seems fanciful.
Once the shock wears off, the situation will be almost identical to before Brexit.
OT , in reply to AndyJS, I think - That London secession petition will be up to 200,000 by next week, at that current rate. Extraordinary times.
Time for an English parliament, located in Knowsley...
With accommodation blocks in Skelmersdale....
Yep, we might actually get politicians who would listen to, and care about, the WWC and WNWC if they had to live and work among them...
I wonder if the local Labour parties in WWC areas have taken the subtle hint from today's events. I say subtle, but it's about as subtle as @TSE's pop music references!
They need to find good and experienced local councillors for Parliamentary seats, not some jumped up young Islingtonite SpAd from Head Office, who doesn't have anything in common with their constituents.
The trouble is that the CLPs are full of euro-enthusiasts who have just been annoying their core voters for the past three months.
The one grain of hope I have that Labour might avoid a Scottish-style meltdown is that Labour still held up OK in their traditional Labour heartlands in the May locals, even though the EU campaign was already underway then.
On the other hand, the PLP seem determined to throw away even that advantage by installing a Europhile who wants to sacrifice Labour voters across the North for some crazy dream of winning Tory Remain voters from Surrey and Oxfordshire.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
Someone needs to tell her that the FTSE 100 finished UP on the week. Yes, that's UP on the week.
Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...
I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.
Gary Gibbon et al are just a bunch of over educated chatterati. Scraping the barrel to justify their overpaid existence.
Not much discussion on Scotland, but it appears to me that Sturgeon has got a bit problem. One thing the it feels last night brought into perspective was quite how comprehensive the defeat was in the Scottish referendum, whatever the subsequent benefits to the SNP under FPTP. Last night at 52-48 really felt like a comprehensive defeat, and never really felt close all night. The Scottish referendum was 55-45 which in comparison feels like a massacre. It's difficult to see a margin of that size being overcome, whatever the situation change with the EU. None of the problems the yes camp had at the time have been remotely resolved, and it's difficult to believe that the EU will swing it that much. Especially as it still wouldn't really be a choice between EU and not EU.
How do you know it will not be, EU may well drop a strong hint that they will fastrack Scotland
Why would they do that? And Scotland would need all sorts of opt-outs as well if not to create huge difficulties with England. And the EU are going to be too busy negotiating the UK exit to start trying to get involved in a theoretical negotiation with a potentially independent Scotland. And given an Independent Scotland's economic situation would be, let's say, uncertain, it's not really obvious what the EU would have to gain.
Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...
I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.
Gary Gibbon et al are just a bunch of over educated chatterati. Scraping the barrel to justify their overpaid existence.
Are you sure its not cogniscenti! Tyson may have something to say about that!
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
OT , in reply to AndyJS, I think - That London secession petition will be up to 200,000 by next week, at that current rate. Extraordinary times.
Time for an English parliament, located in Knowsley...
With accommodation blocks in Skelmersdale....
Yep, we might actually get politicians who would listen to, and care about, the WWC and WNWC if they had to live and work among them...
I wonder if the local Labour parties in WWC areas have taken the subtle hint from today's events. I say subtle, but it's about as subtle as @TSE's pop music references!
They need to find good and experienced local councillors for Parliamentary seats, not some jumped up young Islingtonite SpAd from Head Office, who doesn't have anything in common with their constituents.
The trouble is that the CLPs are full of euro-enthusiasts who have just been annoying their core voters for the past three months.
Maybe if they stopped trolling the electorate and started listening to them, things might improve? Do they need to be pointed at Scotland for more subtle hints?
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
Slight long term underperformance against potential doesn't really sell tickets though
The young people wait until the old people die, then go back in.
There's something to be said for this, as the EU needs to make some changes and the UK is never very helpful when it needs to change.
Or: the young people grow up and learn more about the world and start coming to different conclusions than they do at the moment wet behind the ears, fresh out of school?
The young are less racist and xenophobic - and therefore much less responsive to the Farage message which was at the heart of the leave campaign
They also don't have to worry yet about things that have been affected by globalization and mass migration: career jobs, housing, places for their children at schools, GPs, etc etc.
Neither do the 65+.
The gilded baby boomers who were given everything by the nation all through their lives - by their parents before them gave them free education (with grants no less) , generous benefits & cheap housing and their children are now paying their triple locked pensions - decided this one.
OT , in reply to AndyJS, I think - That London secession petition will be up to 200,000 by next week, at that current rate. Extraordinary times.
Time for an English parliament, located in Knowsley...
With accommodation blocks in Skelmersdale....
Yep, we might actually get politicians who would listen to, and care about, the WWC and WNWC if they had to live and work among them...
I wonder if the local Labour parties in WWC areas have taken the subtle hint from today's events. I say subtle, but it's about as subtle as @TSE's pop music references!
They need to find good and experienced local councillors for Parliamentary seats, not some jumped up young Islingtonite SpAd from Head Office, who doesn't have anything in common with their constituents.
The trouble is that the CLPs are full of euro-enthusiasts who have just been annoying their core voters for the past three months.
The one grain of hope I have that Labour might avoid a Scottish-style meltdown is that Labour still held up OK in their traditional Labour heartlands in the May locals, even though the EU campaign was already underway then.
On the other hand, the PLP seem determined to throw away even that advantage by installing a Europhile who wants to sacrifice Labour voters across the North for some crazy dream of winning Tory Remain voters from Surrey and Oxfordshire.
I just love the idea that voters in the North would be more likely to vote for Jeremy Corbyn than Dan Jarvis because Jarvis is pro-EU and Corbyn is mildly Euro-sceptic. If you seriously believe that working class voters would prefer someone who supported the IRA, favours unlimited immigration and is clearly uneasy with any kind of patriotic display, over a former soldier who represents a solidly working class northern seat, then I genuinely believe you do not have the first idea about working class Labour voters.
A foreign, non-European colleague of mine was today sniggering about this vote and the possibility of SindyRef 2. He clearly thought Britain was a country on self-destruct led by cranks. As a staunch patriot I desperately wanted to squash this notion, but there was nothing I could say.
Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...
I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.
Yes. Cameron deserves the blame because of that awful "deal", and the arrogant, sneering way with which it was delivered."Fuck the proles, they'll believe any old bollocks".
Every time I feel sorry for Cam (and I do), then I remember THAT. And much of the pity goes away.
A foreign, non-European colleague of mine was today sniggering about this vote and the possibility of SindyRef 2. He clearly thought Britain was a country on self-destruct led by cranks. As a staunch patriot I desperately wanted to squash this notion, but there was nothing I could say.
Yeah because the rest of the world is doing SOOOO much better than us right now right?
John McDonnell bullish about Labour's prospects at a snap general election.
Curiously there will not be one. Primarily because:
1. The fixed term parliament act.
2. We need stability not snap elections.
3. Who ever takes over as PM will not be stupid,
Small majority, not many disaffected people needed for a vote of confidence.
I wouldn't be totally surprised if the two main parties don't combine to repeal the fixed term parliament act. I don't think anyone really believes in it. When Corbyn was being interviewed earlier today it was almost as if it didn't exist - he was asked about it and basically said it was a decision for the new PM.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
Someone needs to tell her that the FTSE 100 finished UP on the week. Yes, that's UP on the week.
Only in sterling, not in real money
Edit to add: the only things that are up are US Dollar earners, such as Shell
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Frankly the one clearly good thing about this whole event is the thought that we won't in future have to pay any attention to Juncker, or ten times worse that hideous Schultz chap.
OT , in reply to AndyJS, I think - That London secession petition will be up to 200,000 by next week, at that current rate. Extraordinary times.
Time for an English parliament, located in Knowsley...
With accommodation blocks in Skelmersdale....
Yep, we might actually get politicians who would listen to, and care about, the WWC and WNWC if they had to live and work among them...
I wonder if the local Labour parties in WWC areas have taken the subtle hint from today's events. I say subtle, but it's about as subtle as @TSE's pop music references!
They need to find good and experienced local councillors for Parliamentary seats, not some jumped up young Islingtonite SpAd from Head Office, who doesn't have anything in common with their constituents.
The trouble is that the CLPs are full of euro-enthusiasts who have just been annoying their core voters for the past three months.
Maybe if they stopped trolling the electorate and started listening to them, things might improve? Do they need to be pointed at Scotland for more subtle hints?
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
Not much discussion on Scotland, but it appears to me that Sturgeon has got a bit problem. One thing the it feels last night brought into perspective was quite how comprehensive the defeat was in the Scottish referendum, whatever the subsequent benefits to the SNP under FPTP. Last night at 52-48 really felt like a comprehensive defeat, and never really felt close all night. The Scottish referendum was 55-45 which in comparison feels like a massacre. It's difficult to see a margin of that size being overcome, whatever the situation change with the EU. None of the problems the yes camp had at the time have been remotely resolved, and it's difficult to believe that the EU will swing it that much. Especially as it still wouldn't really be a choice between EU and not EU.
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
Slight long term underperformance against potential doesn't really sell tickets though
Apparently not. Still people would rather sell disaster than a minor swerve in the road.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
Someone needs to tell her that the FTSE 100 finished UP on the week. Yes, that's UP on the week.
Only in sterling, not in real money
Edit to add: the only things that are up are US Dollar earners, such as Shell
Yes that's true, but the headlines look like "£150bn wiped off stock market after Brexit vote", which is complete bollocks. Yes the 100 was 8% off in early trading, but 3/4 of that loss came back later in the day.
If they said that Sterling was down then that's fair, but is only as low as it was in April - which really doesn't justify the scare stories that scream "Look at what you've done, you thick plebs" at the viewer.
Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...
I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.
Yes. Cameron deserves the blame because of that awful "deal", and the arrogant, sneering way with which it was delivered."Fuck the proles, they'll believe any old bollocks".
Every time I feel sorry for Cam (and I do), then I remember THAT. And much of the pity goes away.
Sorry Seant, I am not clear.. which way did you vote?
Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...
I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.
Yes. Cameron deserves the blame because of that awful "deal", and the arrogant, sneering way with which it was delivered."Fuck the proles, they'll believe any old bollocks".
Every time I feel sorry for Cam (and I do), then I remember THAT. And much of the pity goes away.
We warned him on here...
Indeed we did. The day he came back with that so-called "Deal" was the day I decided I was voting to leave.
The PM had several opportunities to deal with that situation to his advantage, but screaming from the tower about the Emperor's lovely new clothes wasn't one of them.
Fingers crossed there's plenty of shit coming for Campbell. Odious little toad that couldn't keep himself from running round the studios again today.
Rumours are he has come out of it relatively unscathed, which I believe is why he has gone high profile again and is all over the media. He has just been on LBC and was asked for his views on the Conservative Party forthcoming leadership contest!!! The man is detestable and his crowing over the next few weeks will be unbearable.
Fingers crossed there's plenty of shit coming for Campbell. Odious little toad that couldn't keep himself from running round the studios again today.
If only. The rumour is that Campbell is barely touched.
He'd better be in real trouble for what he did to poor Dr Kelly, the world would be a better place with scumbags like Campbell behind bars.
Are you aware of something called libel?
I don't think that's libellous. You can strongly disapprove of the way Kelly was brought into the public eye and hung out to dry, without getting involved in the debate about the reasons for his death.
Having voted for remain, the hysteria is... interesting.
It seems clear that the left now really, really hate their core voters. Strangely, having publicly castigated for their lack of culture, their lumpen proletarianism and their hideous paleness, the WWC seem to have responded by not doing what they were told to do. Obviously the only thing left to ...
After the uprising of the 17th of June The Secretary of the Writers' Union Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee Stating that the people Had forfeited the confidence of the government And could win it back only By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier In that case for the government To dissolve the people And elect another?
Fortunately, the Germans seem to be taking matters sensibly. The associate partnership stuff suggests that various groups want a rapid deal. The EU is not in a position to afford an economic war with anyone - nor is the UK really looking for a fight.
From the EU point of view, a deal which turns the link with UK into an economic one (preserving the trade that employs alot of people in the rest of the EU), while getting the UK out of the way of the building of the United States of Europe makes good sense. The reason this wasn't offered before was that it would have killed the chance of a "pure" Remain. That option is now gone.
Anyone want to start betting on the date of the referendum to accept/reject the deal?
18-24 year olds voted 75% for the Establishment option of Remain,
No, 75% of those who voted, probably less than half of all in that age group. If they want to be heard they need to vote, not just whine on the internet.
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...
I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.
Cameron's problem was in mistaking his luck for ability.
Rubbish.
Cameron's problem was in having a party where many of his MPs cared more about the EU than the party's health. Which is a fair position for them to have, but it causes massive problems for the party and its management.
It was the same problem that bedevilled Major.
And you know what? Whoever replaces Cameron isn't going to do as well. Not because Cameron was lucky: because he was good. Leader for eleven years, and PM for six with two election wins.
His replacement won't match that, even against a Corbynite Labour. Because as in the 1990s, Labour will eventually regain its senses.
18-24 year olds voted 75% for the Establishment option of Remain,
No, 75% of those who voted, probably less than half of all in that age group. If they want to be heard they need to vote, not just whine on the internet.
Fingers crossed there's plenty of shit coming for Campbell. Odious little toad that couldn't keep himself from running round the studios again today.
If only. The rumour is that Campbell is barely touched.
He'd better be in real trouble for what he did to poor Dr Kelly, the world would be a better place with scumbags like Campbell behind bars.
Absolutely Sandpit. And we should never give up to get the medical report and the ridiculous 70 year wait on that lifted and revealed as to what happened. A classical establishment cover up. There can never be justice for David Kelly until that document is released.
And David Cameron should have told us about his trip to the Pelandaba nuclear facility near Pretoria in South Africa in 1989 with Dr David Kelly and Sir Kenneth Warren who was the MP in Amber Crudd's seat for Hastings and Rye at the time.........and the mysterious £17.8 million that went into Tory party accounts for the 1992 general election that is mentioned in Hansard on the 22nd June 1993 in a debate in the Commons.
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
I don't have a problem with it, but clearly there are a lot of Scots who do and who would like another referendum because they feel that Brexit is a material change from the situation as it was back in September 2014. That is their right, is it not?
Has Cameron actually made any statements about his future intentions in politics? He's still only 50. Having given his reasons for resigning as being the wrong person to lead the country into Brexit, is it totally far-fetched that he might hang around, perhaps serve in Cabinets, and even return to the leadership one day once his kids are grown up?
Not much discussion on Scotland, but it appears to me that Sturgeon has got a bit problem. One thing the it feels last night brought into perspective was quite how comprehensive the defeat was in the Scottish referendum, whatever the subsequent benefits to the SNP under FPTP. Last night at 52-48 really felt like a comprehensive defeat, and never really felt close all night. The Scottish referendum was 55-45 which in comparison feels like a massacre. It's difficult to see a margin of that size being overcome, whatever the situation change with the EU. None of the problems the yes camp had at the time have been remotely resolved, and it's difficult to believe that the EU will swing it that much. Especially as it still wouldn't really be a choice between EU and not EU.
How do you know it will not be, EU may well drop a strong hint that they will fastrack Scotland
Has Cameron actually made any statements about his future intentions in politics? He's still only 50. Having given his reasons for resigning as being the wrong person to lead the country into Brexit, is it totally far-fetched that he might hang around, perhaps serve in Cabinets, and even return to the leadership one day once his kids are grown up?
Mr. F, I made a similar comment earlier today (I was going to write yesterday, but it *is* the same day, just a very long one).
Likewise those in London, as if London/Scotland/Northern Ireland imposing their will on Wales and England (ex-London) is fine, but the reverse is some sort of abhorrence.
Fingers crossed there's plenty of shit coming for Campbell. Odious little toad that couldn't keep himself from running round the studios again today.
If only. The rumour is that Campbell is barely touched.
He'd better be in real trouble for what he did to poor Dr Kelly, the world would be a better place with scumbags like Campbell behind bars.
Are you aware of something called libel?
The first report on the matter was clear that the scumbag gave the name to journalists, when he should have been protecting a civil servant from the press. I didn't accuse him of anything he's not already admitted to Hutton. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alastair_Campbell#Iraq_Wa
"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.
Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:
The British must take on the consequences of their choice. We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue]. We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing. This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”
Has Cameron actually made any statements about his future intentions in politics? He's still only 50. Having given his reasons for resigning as being the wrong person to lead the country into Brexit, is it totally far-fetched that he might hang around, perhaps serve in Cabinets, and even return to the leadership one day once his kids are grown up?
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
18-24 year olds voted 75% for the Establishment option of Remain,
No, 75% of those who voted, probably less than half of all in that age group. If they want to be heard they need to vote, not just whine on the internet.
"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.
Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:
The British must take on the consequences of their choice. We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue]. We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing. This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”
The law of unintended consequences.
The French Government has already dismissed it though.
Also on C4 News is PB "favourite" for Cameron's successor, Nikki Morgan. She says it is important that a woman is on the ballot of the final two. Tokenism lives.
As long as it's not Soubry. she has been everwhere in the past 24 hours and is DREADFUL.
If a woman's wanted, and a Brexiter, how about Priti?!
"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.
Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:
The British must take on the consequences of their choice. We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue]. We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing. This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”
The law of unintended consequences.
The French Government has already dismissed it though.
It's the local population and local political powerbases that may make the difference, however.
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
You've changed your tune haven't you?
I think he's actually confident that the Scots don't really want that.
"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.
Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:
The British must take on the consequences of their choice. We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue]. We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing. This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”
The law of unintended consequences.
The French Government has already dismissed it though.
Note the quiet from the French and German governments. They are working on a deal....
Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...
I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.
Cameron's problem was in mistaking his luck for ability.
Rubbish.
Cameron's problem was in having a party where many of his MPs cared more about the EU than the party's health. Which is a fair position for them to have, but it causes massive problems for the party and its management.
It was the same problem that bedevilled Major.
And you know what? Whoever replaces Cameron isn't going to do as well. Not because Cameron was lucky: because he was good. Leader for eleven years, and PM for six with two election wins.
His replacement won't match that, even against a Corbynite Labour. Because as in the 1990s, Labour will eventually regain its senses.
Just like Major he pretended to he Eurosceptics that he was one of them despite being a Europhile.
He was a lucky liar. Two of the worst Labour leaders ever and he fails to win a majority then squeked.
And then completely botched the referendum. Utterly botched it. Because he was lucky, not good. And he confused one for the other.
Congrats @viewcode - winning your first political bet IIRC? Took me at least 4 or 5 goes before I got on to a winner....
Thank you. It was my third political bet. The first was against MarineLePen and the Communist candidate in 2012(?), a process I found so traumatic[1] I didn't bet again until 2016. The second was on the London Mayoral2016. The third was on Brexit2016. I have won all three, although no doubt regression to the mean will kick in at some point.
[1] They wouldn't pay up until the second round of voting, so my stake was untouchable for two weeks even tho it was mathematically impossible to lose
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
You've changed your tune haven't you?
He's right - they should be given the option of seceding. Brexit is clearly a material change.
18-24 year olds voted 75% for the Establishment option of Remain,
No, 75% of those who voted, probably less than half of all in that age group. If they want to be heard they need to vote, not just whine on the internet.
Scotland was leaving the UK the moment devolution was granted.
Devolution only ever goes one way. It's just a matter of time.
Let 'em go. If nothing else so I don't have to endure wall-to-wall Sturgeon. But, in fact, they'd probably vote No again, if it was a UK v EU referendum.
Just seen Snow do his Mr Angry bit on channel 4 news ?
You have to feel for the ardent, high placed Europhiles. Now all those nice little sinecures they were in the running for are fading away. Some of them may struggle to (semi-)retire on six figures now.
Mr. Alistair, I'd actually say that Cameron had luck but also campaigning well (at elections). However, he was full of hubris after 2015 and complacent arrogance does not win a tight vote. If he'd been as statesmanlike in campaigning as he had been in resigning, he would have won, and comfortably.
Mr. Rising, Priti Patel would be an excellent choice.
18-24 year olds voted 75% for the Establishment option of Remain,
No, 75% of those who voted, probably less than half of all in that age group. If they want to be heard they need to vote, not just whine on the internet.
That's a bit rich coming from a Kipper!
I think you'll find the kippers voted alright.
Only after whinging on the Internet for years.
Years?
Grow up ffs and stop whining you're like a stuck record
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because 1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions 2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa or 3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2 Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2 Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Yep, there was a reason why every single prominent unionist politician in Scotland was for Remain. They know what's coming next. Boris and Mike have done the SNP's work for them.
There's a strange view that England and Wales owe deference to Scotland.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.
To be honest I can't argue with that. We clearly have irreconcilable differences.
Would be a mistake for them, but it's their mistake to make.
Comments
I think you mistake my frustration about how racist and selfish our oldies are in the UK, and how they clearly do not give a flying fuck about young people. I cannot understand the discrepancy in voting patterns under any other prism.
Once the shock wears off, the situation will be almost identical to before Brexit.
On the other hand, the PLP seem determined to throw away even that advantage by installing a Europhile who wants to sacrifice Labour voters across the North for some crazy dream of winning Tory Remain voters from Surrey and Oxfordshire.
The gilded baby boomers who were given everything by the nation all through their lives - by their parents before them gave them free education (with grants no less) , generous benefits & cheap housing and their children are now paying their triple locked pensions - decided this one.
1. The fixed term parliament act.
2. We need stability not snap elections.
3. Who ever takes over as PM will not be stupid,
It's only relevance is our future relationship with it as a trading partner.
Well until it starts spiralling towards World War 3 of course...
Edit to add: the only things that are up are US Dollar earners, such as Shell
PRevious polls have shown bascally "No Change" when people are asked how they would vote post Brexit.
Is this because
1) Brexit wouldn't change people's opinions
2) There is massive churn and equal proportions of former Yessers become Noers and vice versa
or
3) Most people thought it would be a Remain vote so didn't actually give the question any serious thought?
New polling will show if it's 1, 2 or 3.
My hunch right now based on surprising amount of feedback from my social circle No voters is that it might be 3.
So the Grid is
Yes/Remain - In the Bag for Yes2
Yes/Leave - Split depending on whether they are Yes first or Leave First
No/Remain - Split depending on whether they are Remain first or No First
No/Leave - DavidL, will be voting No2
Yes/DidNotVote - In the bag for Yes2 but may not vote
No/DidNotVote - Complete unknown.
Frankly the one clearly good thing about this whole event is the thought that we won't in future have to pay any attention to Juncker, or ten times worse that hideous Schultz chap.
https://twitter.com/ReutersJamie/status/746366820899299328
If they said that Sterling was down then that's fair, but is only as low as it was in April - which really doesn't justify the scare stories that scream "Look at what you've done, you thick plebs" at the viewer.
The PM had several opportunities to deal with that situation to his advantage, but screaming from the tower about the Emperor's lovely new clothes wasn't one of them.
It seems clear that the left now really, really hate their core voters. Strangely, having publicly castigated for their lack of culture, their lumpen proletarianism and their hideous paleness, the WWC seem to have responded by not doing what they were told to do. Obviously the only thing left to ...
After the uprising of the 17th of June
The Secretary of the Writers' Union
Had leaflets distributed in the Stalinallee
Stating that the people
Had forfeited the confidence of the government
And could win it back only
By redoubled efforts. Would it not be easier
In that case for the government
To dissolve the people
And elect another?
Fortunately, the Germans seem to be taking matters sensibly. The associate partnership stuff suggests that various groups want a rapid deal. The EU is not in a position to afford an economic war with anyone - nor is the UK really looking for a fight.
From the EU point of view, a deal which turns the link with UK into an economic one (preserving the trade that employs alot of people in the rest of the EU), while getting the UK out of the way of the building of the United States of Europe makes good sense. The reason this wasn't offered before was that it would have killed the chance of a "pure" Remain. That option is now gone.
Anyone want to start betting on the date of the referendum to accept/reject the deal?
YOU FUCKING WRECKED IT
No, 75% of those who voted, probably less than half of all in that age group. If they want to be heard they need to vote, not just whine on the internet.
If Scottish votes had overcome small Leave majorities in England and Wales, that would have been fine and dandy. If England and Wales outvote Scotland, it's an outrage.
Will wait to see what more shenanigans ensure over the weekend, if any.
Cameron's problem was in having a party where many of his MPs cared more about the EU than the party's health. Which is a fair position for them to have, but it causes massive problems for the party and its management.
It was the same problem that bedevilled Major.
And you know what? Whoever replaces Cameron isn't going to do as well. Not because Cameron was lucky: because he was good. Leader for eleven years, and PM for six with two election wins.
His replacement won't match that, even against a Corbynite Labour. Because as in the 1990s, Labour will eventually regain its senses.
And David Cameron should have told us about his trip to the Pelandaba nuclear facility near Pretoria in South Africa in 1989 with Dr David Kelly and Sir Kenneth Warren who was the MP in Amber Crudd's seat for Hastings and Rye at the time.........and the mysterious £17.8 million that went into Tory party accounts for the 1992 general election that is mentioned in Hansard on the 22nd June 1993 in a debate in the Commons.
Likewise those in London, as if London/Scotland/Northern Ireland imposing their will on Wales and England (ex-London) is fine, but the reverse is some sort of abhorrence.
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alastair_Campbell#Iraq_Wa
Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:
The British must take on the consequences of their choice.
We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue].
We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing.
This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”
The law of unintended consequences.
I shall now watch Ch4 news on +1 - which will turn me up another notch or two no doubt.
If a woman's wanted, and a Brexiter, how about Priti?!
He was a lucky liar. Two of the worst Labour leaders ever and he fails to win a majority then squeked.
And then completely botched the referendum. Utterly botched it. Because he was lucky, not good. And he confused one for the other.
[1] They wouldn't pay up until the second round of voting, so my stake was untouchable for two weeks even tho it was mathematically impossible to lose
Devolution only ever goes one way. It's just a matter of time.
Let 'em go. If nothing else so I don't have to endure wall-to-wall Sturgeon. But, in fact, they'd probably vote No again, if it was a UK v EU referendum.
Mr. Rising, Priti Patel would be an excellent choice.
They did something about it.
Grow up ffs and stop whining you're like a stuck record
Would be a mistake for them, but it's their mistake to make.