Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...
I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.
Cameron's problem was in mistaking his luck for ability.
Rubbish.
Cameron's problem was in having a party where many of his MPs cared more about the EU than the party's health. Which is a fair position for them to have, but it causes massive problems for the party and its management.
It was the same problem that bedevilled Major.
And you know what? Whoever replaces Cameron isn't going to do as well. Not because Cameron was lucky: because he was good. Leader for eleven years, and PM for six with two election wins.
His replacement won't match that, even against a Corbynite Labour. Because as in the 1990s, Labour will eventually regain its senses.
Cameron was lucky.
Brown, EdM, Corbyn
A clapped out Labour party with its image destroyed by Iraq, recession and sleeze.
LibDem opponents who disintegrated under the contradictions of their own party.
Then Cameron and Osborne went on the biggest vote buying spree in history.
Finally they had the convenient bogeymen of the Krankies to scare England into tactical voting for them.
There's nothing wrong with being lucky but you should never assume its going to hold
So you're saying there was no talent and skillful positioning at all? Or was it all luck in your mind?
Certainly Cameron has talent.
But not as much as he thinks he does.
We all like to think of ourselves as being talented when in fact there's usually a great deal of luck involved.
After all how many PBers had the great fortune to be born into nice middle class families in Britain ? Simply by that we get an entry into say the top 5% of the world.
Now Cameron certainly has talent but as has been remarked on so many times he's been lucky. And then all it needs for disaster is to complacently assume that your previous success has been too heavily due to your abilities and for your luck to simultaneously turn bad.
'We can keep Scotland in the Union but we need to make sure we avoid a right wing Tory government. If we get a decent deal with the EU and a progressive government at Westminster, the Union should be fine.'
Are you having a laugh ?
So Scotland chooses the type of Westminster government that is acceptable to them ?
It seems quite likely the the EU will simply decree that the referendum result stands as invoking Article 50. We are still under their legal jurisdiction, so if that is what seems good to the EU, that is how the court will interpret the law.
Can't do that - the Referendum was merely advisory. The Govt. could choose to ignore it. OK, it would be a piano wire/lamp-post/politician interface event. But they can't do anything until we trigger Article 50.
I know, but my contention is that in the past they have not shown too much respect for the EU law if it gets in their way.
'Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.'
Same for NI have a referendum and accept what the majority wants.
The problem with NI is that no-one there will vote for a United Ireland - even the republicans don't really support it. While I imagine there are plenty of people in England, Scotland and Wales who would want NI to bugger off, the NI people just won't do it.
Oh and Ireland doesn't want them either.
Northern Ireland and Scotland together however, there's a shared history. Plus Scotland might be able to get to the Euros next time with their help.
Scotland already has the Highlands, Islands and the Southern Uplands to pay for as largely agricultural communities with virtually no viable manufacturing or services. A fourth area of special needs might be too much to manage.
Politically a Dal Riata solution always appealed to me as the most viable long term solution for NI but the Good Friday Agreement has been reasonably good.
It seems quite likely the the EU will simply decree that the referendum result stands as invoking Article 50. We are still under their legal jurisdiction, so if that is what seems good to the EU, that is how the court will interpret the law.
Can't do that - the Referendum was merely advisory. The Govt. could choose to ignore it. OK, it would be a piano wire/lamp-post/politician interface event. But they can't do anything until we trigger Article 50.
I know, but my contention is that in the past they have not shown too much respect for the EU law if it gets in their way.
I'm not sure what they would stand to gain from unilaterally invoking article 50. Would you mind expanding on the theme a little, please?
In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!
Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.
So there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland now?
No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase.
Ireland isn't in Schengen because it was already a member when the agreement was signed. Schengen, like EMU, is now part of the acquis that all new members, including Scotland, will have to adopt.
Why are you certain Scotland will be a new member?
OT , in reply to AndyJS, I think - That London secession petition will be up to 200,000 by next week, at that current rate. Extraordinary times.
Time for an English parliament, located in Knowsley...
With accommodation blocks in Skelmersdale....
Yep, we might actually get politicians who would listen to, and care about, the WWC and WNWC if they had to live and work among them...
I wonder if the local Labour parties in WWC areas have taken the subtle hint from today's events. I say subtle, but it's about as subtle as @TSE's pop music references!
They need to find good and experienced local councillors for Parliamentary seats, not some jumped up young Islingtonite SpAd from Head Office, who doesn't have anything in common with their constituents.
The trouble is that the CLPs are full of euro-enthusiasts who have just been annoying their core voters for the past three months.
The one grain of hope I have that Labour might avoid a Scottish-style meltdown is that Labour still held up OK in their traditional Labour heartlands in the May locals, even though the EU campaign was already underway then.
On the other hand, the PLP seem determined to throw away even that advantage by installing a Europhile who wants to sacrifice Labour voters across the North for some crazy dream of winning Tory Remain voters from Surrey and Oxfordshire.
I just love the idea that voters in the North would be more likely to vote for Jeremy Corbyn than Dan Jarvis because Jarvis is pro-EU and Corbyn is mildly Euro-sceptic. If you seriously believe that working class voters would prefer someone who supported the IRA, favours unlimited immigration and is clearly uneasy with any kind of patriotic display, over a former soldier who represents a solidly working class northern seat, then I genuinely believe you do not have the first idea about working class Labour voters.
Again, we are going round in circles here, but if Jarvis has the political judgement of a leader, then why did he want Labour to enthusiastically back the Remain Campaign? I come back to the point that, if his political antennae was so badly off on this issue, why would it be any different if he was leader?
It seems quite likely the the EU will simply decree that the referendum result stands as invoking Article 50. We are still under their legal jurisdiction, so if that is what seems good to the EU, that is how the court will interpret the law.
Can't do that - the Referendum was merely advisory. The Govt. could choose to ignore it. OK, it would be a piano wire/lamp-post/politician interface event. But they can't do anything until we trigger Article 50.
I know, but my contention is that in the past they have not shown too much respect for the EU law if it gets in their way.
While I'm sure many the eurocrats are emotional, the leaders of the nation states will be taking a practical view. They will want to have a positive, prosperous relationship with the UK.
"While other EU chiefs have said the UK must begin the exit process as soon as possible, Merkel made no such appeal. She said she would keep the interests of German citizens and German businesses in mind during any talks."
And, as I posted earlier, the worst thing about this vote is that the oldies, with all their advantages, their pensions, their free education and free education for their kids, their houses, their wealth in stocks and shares....the oldies are so selfish, closed and racist.
Thank goodness the younger voters are so positive, otherwise I would think all of my fellow citizens similar to the many pbCOM nasties, zenophobes...the freaks and geeks, the ideologues, the saddos, the socially inadequates, obsessives and narrow minded, pathetic excuses for humanity and so forth.
Life moves on. And the young give me a sense of hope that we will move on from this nihilistic, nationalistic, racist, lowest common denominator, nihilism...an affliction that particularly afflicts the contributors here.
And last, but not least, well done Anna Soubry. Her contributions today have been the most stunning of any politician in recent memory. Go Anna.
Gary Gibbon on C4 News just compared Cameron's premiership with Eden and Chamberlain...
I think his reform package will definitely go down as one of the biggest strategic errors of all time. I think we may have stayed in without that, a lot of the anger in the Tory membership came from the EU completely ignoring the PM and watering down already quite thin gruel.
Cameron's problem was in mistaking his luck for ability.
Rubbish.
Cameron's problem was in having a party where many of his MPs cared more about the EU than the party's health. Which is a fair position for them to have, but it causes massive problems for the party and its management.
It was the same problem that bedevilled Major.
And you know what? Whoever replaces Cameron isn't going to do as well. Not because Cameron was lucky: because he was good. Leader for eleven years, and PM for six with two election wins.
His replacement won't match that, even against a Corbynite Labour. Because as in the 1990s, Labour will eventually regain its senses.
Cameron was lucky.
Brown, EdM, Corbyn
A clapped out Labour party with its image destroyed by Iraq, recession and sleeze.
LibDem opponents who disintegrated under the contradictions of their own party.
Then Cameron and Osborne went on the biggest vote buying spree in history.
Finally they had the convenient bogeymen of the Krankies to scare England into tactical voting for them.
There's nothing wrong with being lucky but you should never assume its going to hold
So you're saying there was no talent and skillful positioning at all? Or was it all luck in your mind?
Yes, the skillfull positioning was the lying. And his lies have been found out. And they are still unravelling now. He said he wasn't going to resign and that he would invoke Article 50 immediately. Both lies.
If London gains independence, how many MPs would it leave Labour with? If Scotland gains independence within the EU, on which side of the border fence would the migrant campers gather?
"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.
Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:
The British must take on the consequences of their choice. We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue]. We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing. This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”
The law of unintended consequences.
The French Government has already dismissed it though.
Note the quiet from the French and German governments. They are working on a deal....
Imagine if Cameron had sat down at the start of the EU re-negotiations and said to the leaders
"Ladies. Gentlemen. Close your eyes. Imagine it is June, 2016. OK? Now imagine listening to the news from London. Listening? Right. Here comes the result of the UK Referendum I have had to promise to undertake. The UK has voted 52% to 48%. To Leave the EU.
I see your eyes are open again. Good. Now - work with me to prevent that outcome...offer me what you would then be prepared to offer the UK to keep the show on the road...."
We could have just had the voters approve our Associate membership - with all manner of sweeteners. Approved 73% to 27%.
Hannan said that was always on offer, but Mr Cameron didn't want it.
God, I'm angry tonight. I thought I would calm down as the day wore on. But no.
I shall now watch Ch4 news on +1 - which will turn me up another notch or two no doubt.
You're angry?
I am incandesant at how the Labour voters who voted out are still being belittled, patted on the head and ignored by most of the chattering classes. Seriously. WTF?
Not by me.
What has happened to the WWC is a tragedy. As I said in an earlier thread, educational aspiration is a huge problem. Compare and contrast with immigrant families from similar socio-economic groups. Government has failed here. There are also social and cultural issues where education for some reason is not championed (again compare with immigrant families).
In the event of Sindy 2, how would the SNP and Nicola Sturgeon deal with the Scotland in the EU leading to borders at Gretna, Carter Bar, Coldstream et al? I'm sure the motorists will look forward to queueing up on the M6/M74!!
Still I hope that Scotland gets its independence and turns it back on the EU very quickly when it realises very quickly that the EU is a busted flush.
So there will be a border between Ireland and Northern Ireland now?
No-one has suggested this and without an Irish border, this claim will have absolutely no purchase.
Ireland isn't in Schengen because it was already a member when the agreement was signed. Schengen, like EMU, is now part of the acquis that all new members, including Scotland, will have to adopt.
Why are you certain Scotland will be a new member?
Because the idea that Scotland will simply hop into the UK's vacated place, coincidentally hoovering up all the cushy exemptions and opt-outs, is a SNP fantasy. An independent Scotland will be a new country, and will have to go through all the same accession procedures as any other applicant. Sadly, Scotland outside the UK is nowhere near as important as Sturgeon's ludicrous press conference this morning, announcing bilateral meetings and government missions, suggests she believes it is.
Sounds like it's an obscure rule of playing Mornington Crescent.
Obscure? It's one of the seven classic variations. I know it is out of favour with the modern set but I would have thought PB posters would be familiar with what was the pre-eminent rules sets of the 1920s!
If London gains independence, how many MPs would it leave Labour with? If Scotland gains independence within the EU, on which side of the border fence would the migrant campers gather?
You only have to look at Scotland to see how the political makeup of a nation can rapidly change. What is now is not what is forever. It will be exciting to have the union break up in such an unpredictable manner.
"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.
Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:
The British must take on the consequences of their choice. We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue]. We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing. This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”
The law of unintended consequences.
The French Government has already dismissed it though.
Note the quiet from the French and German governments. They are working on a deal....
Imagine if Cameron had sat down at the start of the EU re-negotiations and said to the leaders
"Ladies. Gentlemen. Close your eyes. Imagine it is June, 2016. OK? Now imagine listening to the news from London. Listening? Right. Here comes the result of the UK Referendum I have had to promise to undertake. The UK has voted 52% to 48%. To Leave the EU.
I see your eyes are open again. Good. Now - work with me to prevent that outcome...offer me what you would then be prepared to offer the UK to keep the show on the road...."
We could have just had the voters approve our Associate membership - with all manner of sweeteners. Approved 73% to 27%.
No way. For a start, all the Tory troops would be out, and the Kippers, nice bunch they were last night would seem to me to be short on electoral organisation. Without VoteLeaves data mining etc the outers would be lucky to get 25%.
Still, the electorate like punishing arrogance. In this case, more Juncker's than Cameron's to be fair.
On C4 News is a young lady reporter in a complete panic meltdown Helia Ebrahimi their Business Correspondent. Talking about a greek style meltdown, worst this and worst that...
They are barking mad selling over hyped tales of doom to get viewers to watch a car crash. Problem is, it isn't a car crash.
It's more like a flat tyre.
And not a particularly flat one. FTSE 100s best week for 4 months!
To be fair it has been pointed out that the FTSE 100 isn't a particularly good guide to the effect on British business of Brexit, and the FTSE 250 is a better guide.
Yes, that was down 7.2%. But don't worry - it's only full of companies that employe lots of British people, export a lot to the EU and generate a great deal of Corporation tax.
Not to mention that day1 is the start of the process - and will probably get steadily worse as the uncertainty continues.
There, there. Don't forget to put it in your diary to make sure you don't miss the next time the Footsie has a bad day
It seems quite likely the the EU will simply decree that the referendum result stands as invoking Article 50. We are still under their legal jurisdiction, so if that is what seems good to the EU, that is how the court will interpret the law.
Can't do that - the Referendum was merely advisory. The Govt. could choose to ignore it. OK, it would be a piano wire/lamp-post/politician interface event. But they can't do anything until we trigger Article 50.
I know, but my contention is that in the past they have not shown too much respect for the EU law if it gets in their way.
I'm not sure what they would stand to gain from unilaterally invoking article 50. Would you mind expanding on the theme a little, please?
Well, I don't know either, but they apparently see a need to start the clock asap, presumably to get the 2-year process ended asap. A ticking clock would put more pressure on the UK side and also give the EU a known end-date, rather than awaiting the pleasure of the UK government. The EU might also see the precedent as a useful deterrent to any other state minded to try the referendum path.
On thread: just listening to an old boy (well into his 70s) talking to his mate and utterly debunking all the junk that Leave fed us during the campaign and before. So there's some hope for the older generation yet!
We all like to think of ourselves as being talented when in fact there's usually a great deal of luck involved.
After all how many PBers had the great fortune to be born into nice middle class families in Britain ? Simply by that we get an entry into say the top 5% of the world.
Now Cameron certainly has talent but as has been remarked on so many times he's been lucky. And then all it needs for disaster is to complacently assume that your previous success has been too heavily due to your abilities and for your luck to simultaneously turn bad.
I agree with much of that. But it should be said he had the talent to effectively exploit that luck when it happened. Many politicians don't get the luck. Fewer exploit it well when it does occur. Cameron did.
Ed Miliband and Corbyn are two politicians who have had lucky events happen, and have (in Corbyn's case so far) flunked them.
Your assumption that he complacently assumed his luck would continue seems dubious. Alternatively, it might have been one calculated gamble too far.
Whatever, I'm thankful that he 'saved' us from a further Brown and then a Miliband government, and gave us the referendum.
Because the idea that Scotland will simply hop into the UK's vacated place, coincidentally hoovering up all the cushy exemptions and opt-outs, is a SNP fantasy. An independent Scotland will be a new country, and will have to go through all the same accession procedures as any other applicant. Sadly, Scotland outside the UK is nowhere near as important as Sturgeon's ludicrous press conference this morning, announcing bilateral meetings and government missions, suggests she believes it is.
Scotland would, if the EU took the view, be a successor state to the United Kingdom (which again, if the EU took the view, would have been dissolved). As such there is nothing to stop the EU offering Scotland to acquire the UK membership.
The best thing about the EU doing it this way, is that there would be no Veto and it would all be done on bureaucratic decision and QMV.
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
John McDonnell bullish about Labour's prospects at a snap general election.
Curiously there will not be one. Primarily because:
1. The fixed term parliament act.
2. We need stability not snap elections.
3. Who ever takes over as PM will not be stupid,
Small majority, not many disaffected people needed for a vote of confidence.
Do you suppose the Tory ranks are filled with Europhiles in self destruct mode?
Enough, and the country will thank them.
No, and er no they will not. What is more the Europhiles may find they have no troops.
Troops? What are you on about? You don't seem to have understood the depth of feeling in the ranks. They are better off out of the party if they want to survive, jump before they get deselected.
Oh, I see. So half a dozen become LDs in safe tory seats to skupper the government and win their seets back at the next GE when their former troops (who as you know love their LD brethren dearly) will be as angry as hell?
Because the idea that Scotland will simply hop into the UK's vacated place, coincidentally hoovering up all the cushy exemptions and opt-outs, is a SNP fantasy. An independent Scotland will be a new country, and will have to go through all the same accession procedures as any other applicant. Sadly, Scotland outside the UK is nowhere near as important as Sturgeon's ludicrous press conference this morning, announcing bilateral meetings and government missions, suggests she believes it is.
Scotland would, if the EU took the view, be a successor state to the United Kingdom (which again, if the EU took the view, would have been dissolved). As such there is nothing to stop the EU offering Scotland to acquire the UK membership.
The best thing about the EU doing it this way, is that there would be no Veto and it would all be done on bureaucratic decision and QMV.
Why would the EU want a 28th member, 40% of whose population had just voted to leave the EU?
Because the idea that Scotland will simply hop into the UK's vacated place, coincidentally hoovering up all the cushy exemptions and opt-outs, is a SNP fantasy. An independent Scotland will be a new country, and will have to go through all the same accession procedures as any other applicant. Sadly, Scotland outside the UK is nowhere near as important as Sturgeon's ludicrous press conference this morning, announcing bilateral meetings and government missions, suggests she believes it is.
Scotland would, if the EU took the view, be a successor state to the United Kingdom (which again, if the EU took the view, would have been dissolved). As such there is nothing to stop the EU offering Scotland to acquire the UK membership.
The best thing about the EU doing it this way, is that there would be no Veto and it would all be done on bureaucratic decision and QMV.
The precise mechanism will be however the functionaries in the Quai d'Orsay decide to do it. Where there's a will, there's a way.
We can keep Scotland in the Union but we need to make sure we avoid a right wing Tory government. If we get a decent deal with the EU and a progressive government at Westminster, the Union should be fine.
Boris isn't right wing. The loons like to say he is but he isn't. Neither is Gove really.
It seems quite likely the the EU will simply decree that the referendum result stands as invoking Article 50. We are still under their legal jurisdiction, so if that is what seems good to the EU, that is how the court will interpret the law.
Can't do that - the Referendum was merely advisory. The Govt. could choose to ignore it. OK, it would be a piano wire/lamp-post/politician interface event. But they can't do anything until we trigger Article 50.
I know, but my contention is that in the past they have not shown too much respect for the EU law if it gets in their way.
I'm not sure what they would stand to gain from unilaterally invoking article 50. Would you mind expanding on the theme a little, please?
Well, I don't know either, but they apparently see a need to start the clock asap, presumably to get the 2-year process ended asap. A ticking clock would put more pressure on the UK side and also give the EU a known end-date, rather than awaiting the pleasure of the UK government. The EU might also see the precedent as a useful deterrent to any other state minded to try the referendum path.
My view is that it is in nobody's interest to start playing silly sods. When you look at the state of most of the large EU economies (including ours), it's enough to make you weep. We're like a bunch of drunks holding each other up. One false move and we all end up on the floor.
There are always going to be loudmouths posturing for their national electorates, but there's billions of euros of trade at stake. Money talks, bullshit walks as my dear old Granny used to say.
If London gains independence, how many MPs would it leave Labour with? If Scotland gains independence within the EU, on which side of the border fence would the migrant campers gather?
You only have to look at Scotland to see how the political makeup of a nation can rapidly change. What is now is not what is forever. It will be exciting to have the union break up in such an unpredictable manner.
My Lord - people are now seriously discussing the independence of London. What a seriously regrettable screwed up mess this is!
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
Because the idea that Scotland will simply hop into the UK's vacated place, coincidentally hoovering up all the cushy exemptions and opt-outs, is a SNP fantasy. An independent Scotland will be a new country, and will have to go through all the same accession procedures as any other applicant. Sadly, Scotland outside the UK is nowhere near as important as Sturgeon's ludicrous press conference this morning, announcing bilateral meetings and government missions, suggests she believes it is.
Scotland would, if the EU took the view, be a successor state to the United Kingdom (which again, if the EU took the view, would have been dissolved). As such there is nothing to stop the EU offering Scotland to acquire the UK membership.
The best thing about the EU doing it this way, is that there would be no Veto and it would all be done on bureaucratic decision and QMV.
Unfortunately, your enthusiasm appears to have outstripped your understanding of the logistics. If Scotland gains its independence before Article 50 negotiations are complete, it cannot be the successor state to the UK because the UK will still be in the EU. If Scotland gains its independence after Article 50 negotiations are complete, the EU can treat it as the successor state but it'll still be out of the EU and will have to reapply for membership. The EU is not going to bend over backwards for Scotland in the way the SNP believes because, as the SNP have apparently yet to realise, Scotland needs the EU far more than the EU needs Scotland.
Because the idea that Scotland will simply hop into the UK's vacated place, coincidentally hoovering up all the cushy exemptions and opt-outs, is a SNP fantasy. An independent Scotland will be a new country, and will have to go through all the same accession procedures as any other applicant. Sadly, Scotland outside the UK is nowhere near as important as Sturgeon's ludicrous press conference this morning, announcing bilateral meetings and government missions, suggests she believes it is.
Scotland would, if the EU took the view, be a successor state to the United Kingdom (which again, if the EU took the view, would have been dissolved). As such there is nothing to stop the EU offering Scotland to acquire the UK membership.
The best thing about the EU doing it this way, is that there would be no Veto and it would all be done on bureaucratic decision and QMV.
Unfortunately, your enthusiasm appears to have outstripped your understanding of the logistics. If Scotland gains its independence before Article 50 negotiations are complete, it cannot be the successor state to the UK because the UK will still be in the EU. If Scotland gains its independence after Article 50 negotiations are complete, the EU can treat it as the successor state but it'll still be out of the EU and will have to reapply for membership. The EU is not going to bend over backwards for Scotland in the way the SNP believes because, as the SNP have apparently yet to realise, Scotland needs the EU far more than the EU needs Scotland.
Isn't there a Spanish angle here as well, or does this new situation negate that somewhat?
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
If London gains independence, how many MPs would it leave Labour with? If Scotland gains independence within the EU, on which side of the border fence would the migrant campers gather?
You only have to look at Scotland to see how the political makeup of a nation can rapidly change. What is now is not what is forever. It will be exciting to have the union break up in such an unpredictable manner.
My Lord - people are now seriously discussing the independence of London. What a seriously regrettable screwed up mess this is!
No-one is screwing up apart from some seriously embarrassing sore losers (most of them my facebook friends it seems), who can't quite grasp that in a democracy sometimes you lose. The delicate flowers will recover given time.
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
You on the other hand have just got there much earlier in life....
Your article started me wondering, Richard, whether any of those 'canvas-your-nan' phone calls actually prompted older generations to think through the issues more carefully. I saw that the issue of democracy/sovereignty was top of the list in Lord Ashcroft's poll.
Interesting question. I don't how much impact that initiative had, though.
It has led to a lot of 20 somethings safe spacing over roaming charges and visa travel to the Canaries for holidays whilst insisting that 47 year olds shouldn't have a vote because they'll be dead soon.
Not good. However when the visas don't transpire they will be older and wiser.
You do also wonder how many in that age group talked to their Gran and got told how it was and voted leave. I think the 75/25 numbers I have seen is bunkum.
It seems quite likely the the EU will simply decree that the referendum result stands as invoking Article 50. We are still under their legal jurisdiction, so if that is what seems good to the EU, that is how the court will interpret the law.
Can't do that - the Referendum was merely advisory. The Govt. could choose to ignore it. OK, it would be a piano wire/lamp-post/politician interface event. But they can't do anything until we trigger Article 50.
I know, but my contention is that in the past they have not shown too much respect for the EU law if it gets in their way.
I'm not sure what they would stand to gain from unilaterally invoking article 50. Would you mind expanding on the theme a little, please?
Well, I don't know either, but they apparently see a need to start the clock asap, presumably to get the 2-year process ended asap. A ticking clock would put more pressure on the UK side and also give the EU a known end-date, rather than awaiting the pleasure of the UK government. The EU might also see the precedent as a useful deterrent to any other state minded to try the referendum path.
My view is that it is in nobody's interest to start playing silly sods. When you look at the state of most of the large EU economies (including ours), it's enough to make you weep. We're like a bunch of drunks holding each other up. One false move and we all end up on the floor.
There are always going to be loudmouths posturing for their national electorates, but there's billions of euros of trade at stake. Money talks, bullshit walks as my dear old Granny used to say.
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
You on the other hand have just got there much earlier in life....
Never interrupt a drunk when he's embarrassing himself. Just walk on the other side of the street.
John McDonnell bullish about Labour's prospects at a snap general election.
Curiously there will not be one. Primarily because:
1. The fixed term parliament act.
2. We need stability not snap elections.
3. Who ever takes over as PM will not be stupid,
Small majority, not many disaffected people needed for a vote of confidence.
Do you suppose the Tory ranks are filled with Europhiles in self destruct mode?
Enough, and the country will thank them.
No, and er no they will not. What is more the Europhiles may find they have no troops.
Troops? What are you on about? You don't seem to have understood the depth of feeling in the ranks. They are better off out of the party if they want to survive, jump before they get deselected.
Oh, I see. So half a dozen become LDs in safe tory seats to skupper the government and win their seets back at the next GE when their former troops (who as you know love their LD brethren dearly) will be as angry as hell?
Why not just accept the result and move on?
Best thing to do is to not try and deselect them I suppose.
Inner / Outer London split (on the old ILEA boundaries):
Inner London Remain 931,696 72% Leave 368,262 28%
Outer London Remain 1,331,823 54% Leave 1,144,970 46%
Hopefully I've done the calculation correctly.
Outer London is not too dissimilar to the country as a whole and more Leave than Manchester, Liverpool, Cardiff and Bristol. The big outlier is Inner London.
If London gains independence, how many MPs would it leave Labour with? If Scotland gains independence within the EU, on which side of the border fence would the migrant campers gather?
You only have to look at Scotland to see how the political makeup of a nation can rapidly change. What is now is not what is forever. It will be exciting to have the union break up in such an unpredictable manner.
My Lord - people are now seriously discussing the independence of London. What a seriously regrettable screwed up mess this is!
No-one is screwing up apart from some seriously embarrassing sore losers (most of them my facebook friends it seems), who can't quite grasp that in a democracy sometimes you lose. The delicate flowers will recover given time.
I had five years of John Major, then thirteen years of Labour. Did I complain? Well, yes, incessantly now I come to think about it.
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
As a 78 year old who voted, and did some work for, Remain and always votes, I object on behalf of the many of my friends and relations who are as appaled as I am at the result.
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
heres an italian song about the joys of youth for you
Your article started me wondering, Richard, whether any of those 'canvas-your-nan' phone calls actually prompted older generations to think through the issues more carefully. I saw that the issue of democracy/sovereignty was top of the list in Lord Ashcroft's poll.
Interesting question. I don't how much impact that initiative had, though.
It has led to a lot of 20 somethings safe spacing over roaming charges and visa travel to the Canaries for holidays whilst insisting that 47 year olds shouldn't have a vote because they'll be dead soon.
Not good. However when the visas don't transpire they will be older and wiser.
You do also wonder how many in that age group talked to their Gran and got told how it was and voted leave. I think the 75/25 numbers I have seen is bunkum.
"safe spacing" "got told how it was" Magnanimity in victory continuing I see It's decent people versus traitors
'Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.'
Same for NI have a referendum and accept what the majority wants.
The problem with NI is that no-one there will vote for a United Ireland - even the republicans don't really support it. While I imagine there are plenty of people in England, Scotland and Wales who would want NI to bugger off, the NI people just won't do it.
Oh and Ireland doesn't want them either.
Northern Ireland and Scotland together however, there's a shared history. Plus Scotland might be able to get to the Euros next time with their help.
*Cough" and in part that shared history is Protestant unionism.
And, as I posted earlier, the worst thing about this vote is that the oldies, with all their advantages, their pensions, their free education and free education for their kids, their houses, their wealth in stocks and shares....the oldies are so selfish, closed and racist.
Thank goodness the younger voters are so positive, otherwise I would think all of my fellow citizens similar to the many pbCOM nasties, zenophobes...the freaks and geeks, the ideologues, the saddos, the socially inadequates, obsessives and narrow minded, pathetic excuses for humanity and so forth.
Life moves on. And the young give me a sense of hope that we will move on from this nihilistic, nationalistic, racist, lowest common denominator, nihilism...an affliction that particularly afflicts the contributors here.
And last, but not least, well done Anna Soubry. Her contributions today have been the most stunning of any politician in recent memory. Go Anna.
Did you forget your medication? Oh, no no it must be the medication that's the problem
Because the idea that Scotland will simply hop into the UK's vacated place, coincidentally hoovering up all the cushy exemptions and opt-outs, is a SNP fantasy. An independent Scotland will be a new country, and will have to go through all the same accession procedures as any other applicant. Sadly, Scotland outside the UK is nowhere near as important as Sturgeon's ludicrous press conference this morning, announcing bilateral meetings and government missions, suggests she believes it is.
Scotland would, if the EU took the view, be a successor state to the United Kingdom (which again, if the EU took the view, would have been dissolved). As such there is nothing to stop the EU offering Scotland to acquire the UK membership.
The best thing about the EU doing it this way, is that there would be no Veto and it would all be done on bureaucratic decision and QMV.
Unfortunately, your enthusiasm appears to have outstripped your understanding of the logistics. If Scotland gains its independence before Article 50 negotiations are complete, it cannot be the successor state to the UK because the UK will still be in the EU. If Scotland gains its independence after Article 50 negotiations are complete, the EU can treat it as the successor state but it'll still be out of the EU and will have to reapply for membership. The EU is not going to bend over backwards for Scotland in the way the SNP believes because, as the SNP have apparently yet to realise, Scotland needs the EU far more than the EU needs Scotland.
Article 50 can be delayed indefinitely.
The discussion was not about whether the EU would or would not do things this way. It was that the EU could do it this way. And clearly it is well within its purview.
And, as I posted earlier, the worst thing about this vote is that the oldies, with all their advantages, their pensions, their free education and free education for their kids, their houses, their wealth in stocks and shares....the oldies are so selfish, closed and racist.
Thank goodness the younger voters are so positive, otherwise I would think all of my fellow citizens similar to the many pbCOM nasties, zenophobes...the freaks and geeks, the ideologues, the saddos, the socially inadequates, obsessives and narrow minded, pathetic excuses for humanity and so forth.
Life moves on. And the young give me a sense of hope that we will move on from this nihilistic, nationalistic, racist, lowest common denominator, nihilism...an affliction that particularly afflicts the contributors here.
And last, but not least, well done Anna Soubry. Her contributions today have been the most stunning of any politician in recent memory. Go Anna.
The oldies were the Flower Power generation. 40 years on, the 18-24 year olds will hold the same views.
Because the idea that Scotland will simply hop into the UK's vacated place, coincidentally hoovering up all the cushy exemptions and opt-outs, is a SNP fantasy. An independent Scotland will be a new country, and will have to go through all the same accession procedures as any other applicant. Sadly, Scotland outside the UK is nowhere near as important as Sturgeon's ludicrous press conference this morning, announcing bilateral meetings and government missions, suggests she believes it is.
Scotland would, if the EU took the view, be a successor state to the United Kingdom (which again, if the EU took the view, would have been dissolved). As such there is nothing to stop the EU offering Scotland to acquire the UK membership.
The best thing about the EU doing it this way, is that there would be no Veto and it would all be done on bureaucratic decision and QMV.
Unfortunately, your enthusiasm appears to have outstripped your understanding of the logistics. If Scotland gains its independence before Article 50 negotiations are complete, it cannot be the successor state to the UK because the UK will still be in the EU. If Scotland gains its independence after Article 50 negotiations are complete, the EU can treat it as the successor state but it'll still be out of the EU and will have to reapply for membership. The EU is not going to bend over backwards for Scotland in the way the SNP believes because, as the SNP have apparently yet to realise, Scotland needs the EU far more than the EU needs Scotland.
Isn't there a Spanish angle here as well, or does this new situation negate that somewhat?
The EU claiming the ability to pick and choose successor states would have far greater repercussions than that. If it wanted to kick a member out, for instance, it could encourage a tiny secessionist movement and then designate that area as the successor state. Fed up with Greek bail-outs? Congratulations, Corfu, you're now Greece! Tough break for Athens, but that's QMV for you. Good luck with your application for membership, if you decide to make one.
Before Labour MPs turn on Corbyn wouldn't be a good idea to ditch the Chairman of the PLP? At least Brady represents the Tory backbenchers. Labour's PLP can't even summon the courage to get a non-Corbynite to represent them.
And, as I posted earlier, the worst thing about this vote is that the oldies, with all their advantages, their pensions, their free education and free education for their kids, their houses, their wealth in stocks and shares....the oldies are so selfish, closed and racist.
Thank goodness the younger voters are so positive, otherwise I would think all of my fellow citizens similar to the many pbCOM nasties, zenophobes...the freaks and geeks, the ideologues, the saddos, the socially inadequates, obsessives and narrow minded, pathetic excuses for humanity and so forth.
Life moves on. And the young give me a sense of hope that we will move on from this nihilistic, nationalistic, racist, lowest common denominator, nihilism...an affliction that particularly afflicts the contributors here.
And last, but not least, well done Anna Soubry. Her contributions today have been the most stunning of any politician in recent memory. Go Anna.
The oldies were the Flower Power generation. 40 years on, the 18-24 year olds will hold the same views.
My only consolation is that we're sparing tyson's wife from this incessant, monotonous dribble .
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
As a 78 year old who voted, and did some work for, Remain and always votes, I object on behalf of the many of my friends and relations who are as appaled as I am at the result.
True story: many years ago an elderly relative was talking to my wife. She started spouting the most horrid, appalling racist comments as my wife and I just smiled and nodded politely. She then put her hand on my wife's knee and said: "Oh, but you aren't an immigrant."
As my wife says: if you pretend not to be different, you're generally fine.
The sort of person who would give a tinkers cuss that an Italian magazine is taking the piss out of Boris, is I suppose the sort of person who votes Remain.
And, as I posted earlier, the worst thing about this vote is that the oldies, with all their advantages, their pensions, their free education and free education for their kids, their houses, their wealth in stocks and shares....the oldies are so selfish, closed and racist.
Thank goodness the younger voters are so positive, otherwise I would think all of my fellow citizens similar to the many pbCOM nasties, zenophobes...the freaks and geeks, the ideologues, the saddos, the socially inadequates, obsessives and narrow minded, pathetic excuses for humanity and so forth.
Life moves on. And the young give me a sense of hope that we will move on from this nihilistic, nationalistic, racist, lowest common denominator, nihilism...an affliction that particularly afflicts the contributors here.
And last, but not least, well done Anna Soubry. Her contributions today have been the most stunning of any politician in recent memory. Go Anna.
The oldies were the Flower Power generation. 40 years on, the 18-24 year olds will hold the same views.
Some things don't change; for instance, the current older generation largely rejected some of the most crude racism in British history during the 70s, and largely maintained that position to date. Thatcher's children in ex-council estates didn't revert to the Labour-voting habits of their parents.
If London gains independence, how many MPs would it leave Labour with? If Scotland gains independence within the EU, on which side of the border fence would the migrant campers gather?
You only have to look at Scotland to see how the political makeup of a nation can rapidly change. What is now is not what is forever. It will be exciting to have the union break up in such an unpredictable manner.
My Lord - people are now seriously discussing the independence of London. What a seriously regrettable screwed up mess this is!
No one is seriously discussing it.
But, some infants are throwing their toys out of the pram.
And, as I posted earlier, the worst thing about this vote is that the oldies, with all their advantages, their pensions, their free education and free education for their kids, their houses, their wealth in stocks and shares....the oldies are so selfish, closed and racist.
Thank goodness the younger voters are so positive, otherwise I would think all of my fellow citizens similar to the many pbCOM nasties, zenophobes...the freaks and geeks, the ideologues, the saddos, the socially inadequates, obsessives and narrow minded, pathetic excuses for humanity and so forth.
Life moves on. And the young give me a sense of hope that we will move on from this nihilistic, nationalistic, racist, lowest common denominator, nihilism...an affliction that particularly afflicts the contributors here.
And last, but not least, well done Anna Soubry. Her contributions today have been the most stunning of any politician in recent memory. Go Anna.
The oldies were the Flower Power generation. 40 years on, the 18-24 year olds will hold the same views.
And, as I posted earlier, the worst thing about this vote is that the oldies, with all their advantages, their pensions, their free education and free education for their kids, their houses, their wealth in stocks and shares....the oldies are so selfish, closed and racist.
Thank goodness the younger voters are so positive, otherwise I would think all of my fellow citizens similar to the many pbCOM nasties, zenophobes...the freaks and geeks, the ideologues, the saddos, the socially inadequates, obsessives and narrow minded, pathetic excuses for humanity and so forth.
Life moves on. And the young give me a sense of hope that we will move on from this nihilistic, nationalistic, racist, lowest common denominator, nihilism...an affliction that particularly afflicts the contributors here.
And last, but not least, well done Anna Soubry. Her contributions today have been the most stunning of any politician in recent memory. Go Anna.
The oldies were the Flower Power generation. 40 years on, the 18-24 year olds will hold the same views.
My only consolation is that we're sparing tyson's wife from this incessant, monotonous dribble .
The flower power generation were always selfish, they never changed. Their children, however, not so much, and they are the newest voters.
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
You on the other hand have just got there much earlier in life....
Has he? Tyson's lack of filter during his tirades has always given me the impression of approaching senescence.
And, as I posted earlier, the worst thing about this vote is that the oldies, with all their advantages, their pensions, their free education and free education for their kids, their houses, their wealth in stocks and shares....the oldies are so selfish, closed and racist.
Thank goodness the younger voters are so positive, otherwise I would think all of my fellow citizens similar to the many pbCOM nasties, zenophobes...the freaks and geeks, the ideologues, the saddos, the socially inadequates, obsessives and narrow minded, pathetic excuses for humanity and so forth.
Life moves on. And the young give me a sense of hope that we will move on from this nihilistic, nationalistic, racist, lowest common denominator, nihilism...an affliction that particularly afflicts the contributors here.
And last, but not least, well done Anna Soubry. Her contributions today have been the most stunning of any politician in recent memory. Go Anna.
The oldies were the Flower Power generation. 40 years on, the 18-24 year olds will hold the same views.
The sort of person who would give a tinkers cuss that an Italian magazine is taking the piss out of Boris, is I suppose the sort of person who votes Remain.
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
As a 78 year old who voted, and did some work for, Remain and always votes, I object on behalf of the many of my friends and relations who are as appaled as I am at the result.
True story: many years ago an elderly relative was talking to my wife. She started spouting the most horrid, appalling racist comments as my wife and I just smiled and nodded politely. She then put her hand on my wife's knee and said: "Oh, but you aren't an immigrant."
As my wife says: if you pretend not to be different, you're generally fine.
We have come a long way though. I think that's fair to say. I grew up right at the tail end of that era when B&B landladies would put up signs "No blacks. No Irish. No travellers." (note for the young. Commercial travellers).
Older boys at my school would routinely discuss going queer or paki bashing. I wish I could remember what changed. We just didn't talk or think like that by the time we reached 5th form.
It's not gone away of course, but we've made some progress.
We all like to think of ourselves as being talented when in fact there's usually a great deal of luck involved.
After all how many PBers had the great fortune to be born into nice middle class families in Britain ? Simply by that we get an entry into say the top 5% of the world.
Now Cameron certainly has talent but as has been remarked on so many times he's been lucky. And then all it needs for disaster is to complacently assume that your previous success has been too heavily due to your abilities and for your luck to simultaneously turn bad.
I agree with much of that. But it should be said he had the talent to effectively exploit that luck when it happened. Many politicians don't get the luck. Fewer exploit it well when it does occur. Cameron did.
Ed Miliband and Corbyn are two politicians who have had lucky events happen, and have (in Corbyn's case so far) flunked them.
Your assumption that he complacently assumed his luck would continue seems dubious. Alternatively, it might have been one calculated gamble too far.
Whatever, I'm thankful that he 'saved' us from a further Brown and then a Miliband government, and gave us the referendum.
If you let Corbyn loose on a football pitch where the other side were all sent off, he still couldn't score a goal.
The sort of person who would give a tinkers cuss that an Italian magazine is taking the piss out of Boris, is I suppose the sort of person who votes Remain.
The sort of educated person who can't distinguish between French and Italian, is I suppose the sort of person who's brought this mess upon us.
Ultimately David Cameron put Party before Country.
By rushing through the negotiation and ten having the insultingly short campaign period he completely banjoed any chance at a either a proper debate or substantive change.
If he'd taken a year to negotiate to get something worthwhile and then given the country a year to decide in a proper campaign then Remain would have won.
But he wanted to rush through the process to give the Conservatives as much time as possible to heal before the next election - trusting his great "Leader Satisfaction" ratings with Conservative voters to get him through it. Only too late did he realise that those numbers were driven by a majority of voters who thought he was one-of-them, a Eurosceptic.
Once the scales fell from their eyes he was screwed.
And, as I posted earlier, the worst thing about this vote is that the oldies, with all their advantages, their pensions, their free education and free education for their kids, their houses, their wealth in stocks and shares....the oldies are so selfish, closed and racist.
Thank goodness the younger voters are so positive, otherwise I would think all of my fellow citizens similar to the many pbCOM nasties, zenophobes...the freaks and geeks, the ideologues, the saddos, the socially inadequates, obsessives and narrow minded, pathetic excuses for humanity and so forth.
Life moves on. And the young give me a sense of hope that we will move on from this nihilistic, nationalistic, racist, lowest common denominator, nihilism...an affliction that particularly afflicts the contributors here.
And last, but not least, well done Anna Soubry. Her contributions today have been the most stunning of any politician in recent memory. Go Anna.
The oldies were the Flower Power generation. 40 years on, the 18-24 year olds will hold the same views.
Some things don't change; for instance, the current older generation largely rejected some of the most crude racism in British history during the 70s, and largely maintained that position to date. Thatcher's children in ex-council estates didn't revert to the Labour-voting habits of their parents.
Total nonsense
you have little idea of how this society has evolved.
We all like to think of ourselves as being talented when in fact there's usually a great deal of luck involved.
After all how many PBers had the great fortune to be born into nice middle class families in Britain ? Simply by that we get an entry into say the top 5% of the world.
Now Cameron certainly has talent but as has been remarked on so many times he's been lucky. And then all it needs for disaster is to complacently assume that your previous success has been too heavily due to your abilities and for your luck to simultaneously turn bad.
I agree with much of that. But it should be said he had the talent to effectively exploit that luck when it happened. Many politicians don't get the luck. Fewer exploit it well when it does occur. Cameron did.
Ed Miliband and Corbyn are two politicians who have had lucky events happen, and have (in Corbyn's case so far) flunked them.
Your assumption that he complacently assumed his luck would continue seems dubious. Alternatively, it might have been one calculated gamble too far.
Whatever, I'm thankful that he 'saved' us from a further Brown and then a Miliband government, and gave us the referendum.
Thatcher and Blair were both very talented and incredibly lucky.
And as you say having the talent to exploit the luck, as Cameron did.
In the end hubris, complacency and a turning of the luck did for them as well.
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
As a 78 year old who voted, and did some work for, Remain and always votes, I object on behalf of the many of my friends and relations who are as appaled as I am at the result.
The clue in my post is the "more likely"
I am so utterly depressed that this reactionary, populist, nihilistic, racist, vote was predominantly dominated by the narrow minded, ignorant, voting oldies who have imposed their dark, bleak vision of the future on the optimistic youth.
Old King Cole... if you and your friends voted remain, and if you are as genuinely appalled (and repelled) by this awful vote, then I think we are on the same side.
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
The sort of person who would give a tinkers cuss that an Italian magazine is taking the piss out of Boris, is I suppose the sort of person who votes Remain.
The sort of educated person who can't distinguish between French and Italian, is I suppose the sort of person who's brought this mess upon us.
'Quite. For the first time in my life I barely give a fuck if Scotland secedes. They really wanna leave the UK and rejoin the EU with the euro, Schengen, unelected government, et al?
If they do, if being Against England means that, then so be it. Fuck them. Let 'em go.'
Same for NI have a referendum and accept what the majority wants.
The problem with NI is that no-one there will vote for a United Ireland - even the republicans don't really support it. While I imagine there are plenty of people in England, Scotland and Wales who would want NI to bugger off, the NI people just won't do it.
Oh and Ireland doesn't want them either.
I won't profess to know anything about Irish politics. Some Irish (Republic of Ireland) people I know refer to Northern Ireland as "Fake Ireland" and simultanously and all at once want to incorporate it into Ireland 'proper' and build a great big wall along the current border. Love/hate between neighbours I suppose.
Because the idea that Scotland will simply hop into the UK's vacated place, coincidentally hoovering up all the cushy exemptions and opt-outs, is a SNP fantasy. An independent Scotland will be a new country, and will have to go through all the same accession procedures as any other applicant. Sadly, Scotland outside the UK is nowhere near as important as Sturgeon's ludicrous press conference this morning, announcing bilateral meetings and government missions, suggests she believes it is.
Scotland would, if the EU took the view, be a successor state to the United Kingdom (which again, if the EU took the view, would have been dissolved). As such there is nothing to stop the EU offering Scotland to acquire the UK membership.
The best thing about the EU doing it this way, is that there would be no Veto and it would all be done on bureaucratic decision and QMV.
Unfortunately, your enthusiasm appears to have outstripped your understanding of the logistics. If Scotland gains its independence before Article 50 negotiations are complete, it cannot be the successor state to the UK because the UK will still be in the EU. If Scotland gains its independence after Article 50 negotiations are complete, the EU can treat it as the successor state but it'll still be out of the EU and will have to reapply for membership. The EU is not going to bend over backwards for Scotland in the way the SNP believes because, as the SNP have apparently yet to realise, Scotland needs the EU far more than the EU needs Scotland.
Isn't there a Spanish angle here as well, or does this new situation negate that somewhat?
The EU claiming the ability to pick and choose successor states would have far greater repercussions than that. If it wanted to kick a member out, for instance, it could encourage a tiny secessionist movement and then designate that area as the successor state. Fed up with Greek bail-outs? Congratulations, Corfu, you're now Greece! Tough break for Athens, but that's QMV for you. Good luck with your application for membership, if you decide to make one.
Thanks. That's interesting.
If there was Brexit, and other states were moaning about leaving, would the EU wallahs actually want Scotland? What would the EU gain from having it in?
I guess further expansion of the EU is firmly off the cards for the moment.
"The mayor of Calais has raised the prospect of migrants camped in Calais could be sent to the UK as a result of Brexit because it could see the unravelling of the border deal that currently keeps many of them in France.
Natacha Bouchart told French broadcaster BFM TV:
The British must take on the consequences of their choice. We are in a strong position to push, to press this request for a review and we are asking the president to bring his weight [to the issue]. We must put everything on the table and there must be an element of division, of sharing. This echoed calls from Xavier Bertrand, the centre-right president of the Hauts-de-France region, who tweeted: “The English wanted to take back their freedom, they must take back their border.”
The law of unintended consequences.
The French Government has already dismissed it though.
Note the quiet from the French and German governments. They are working on a deal....
Imagine if Cameron had sat down at the start of the EU re-negotiations and said to the leaders
"Ladies. Gentlemen. Close your eyes. Imagine it is June, 2016. OK? Now imagine listening to the news from London. Listening? Right. Here comes the result of the UK Referendum I have had to promise to undertake. The UK has voted 52% to 48%. To Leave the EU.
I see your eyes are open again. Good. Now - work with me to prevent that outcome...offer me what you would then be prepared to offer the UK to keep the show on the road...."
We could have just had the voters approve our Associate membership - with all manner of sweeteners. Approved 73% to 27%.
Hannan said that was always on offer, but Mr Cameron didn't want it.
The sort of person who would give a tinkers cuss that an Italian magazine is taking the piss out of Boris, is I suppose the sort of person who votes Remain.
The sort of educated person who can't distinguish between French and Italian, is I suppose the sort of person who's brought this mess upon us.
are you fluent in both languages ?
In French, German and Russian, but I don't think that knowing that Libération is a French paper is anything other than basic general knowledge.
Do we know the turnout by age group? Older voters are generally more likely to vote. This may partly be the reason the youngsters got outvoted by the oldies.
It's double trouble with the oldies...not only are they more likely to be racist, xenophobic, selfish, mean spirited, bigoted, narrow minded, and just plain nasty....but they are more likely to vote.
As a 78 year old who voted, and did some work for, Remain and always votes, I object on behalf of the many of my friends and relations who are as appaled as I am at the result.
True story: many years ago an elderly relative was talking to my wife. She started spouting the most horrid, appalling racist comments as my wife and I just smiled and nodded politely. She then put her hand on my wife's knee and said: "Oh, but you aren't an immigrant."
As my wife says: if you pretend not to be different, you're generally fine.
Could be one of my (very) elderly relatives, actually!
Comments
But not as much as he thinks he does.
We all like to think of ourselves as being talented when in fact there's usually a great deal of luck involved.
After all how many PBers had the great fortune to be born into nice middle class families in Britain ? Simply by that we get an entry into say the top 5% of the world.
Now Cameron certainly has talent but as has been remarked on so many times he's been lucky. And then all it needs for disaster is to complacently assume that your previous success has been too heavily due to your abilities and for your luck to simultaneously turn bad.
'We can keep Scotland in the Union but we need to make sure we avoid a right wing Tory government. If we get a decent deal with the EU and a progressive government at Westminster, the Union should be fine.'
Are you having a laugh ?
So Scotland chooses the type of Westminster government that is acceptable to them ?
Politically a Dal Riata solution always appealed to me as the most viable long term solution for NI but the Good Friday Agreement has been reasonably good.
"While other EU chiefs have said the UK must begin the exit process as soon as possible, Merkel made no such appeal. She said she would keep the interests of German citizens and German businesses in mind during any talks."
http://www.dw.com/en/merkel-calls-brexit-a-watershed-for-europe/a-19351720
And, as I posted earlier, the worst thing about this vote is that the oldies, with all their advantages, their pensions, their free education and free education for their kids, their houses, their wealth in stocks and shares....the oldies are so selfish, closed and racist.
Thank goodness the younger voters are so positive, otherwise I would think all of my fellow citizens similar to the many pbCOM nasties, zenophobes...the freaks and geeks, the ideologues, the saddos, the socially inadequates, obsessives and narrow minded, pathetic excuses for humanity and so forth.
Life moves on. And the young give me a sense of hope that we will move on from this nihilistic, nationalistic, racist, lowest common denominator, nihilism...an affliction that particularly afflicts the contributors here.
And last, but not least, well done Anna Soubry. Her contributions today have been the most stunning of any politician in recent memory. Go Anna.
If Scotland gains independence within the EU, on which side of the border fence would the migrant campers gather?
http://www.conservativehome.com/thecolumnists/2016/06/daniel-hannan-today-for-once-we-can-choose-our-own-future-outside-the-eu.html
What has happened to the WWC is a tragedy. As I said in an earlier thread, educational aspiration is a huge problem. Compare and contrast with immigrant families from similar socio-economic groups. Government has failed here. There are also social and cultural issues where education for some reason is not championed (again compare with immigrant families).
This needs to be addressed.
Philistines.
Still, the electorate like punishing arrogance. In this case, more Juncker's than Cameron's to be fair.
Ed Miliband and Corbyn are two politicians who have had lucky events happen, and have (in Corbyn's case so far) flunked them.
Your assumption that he complacently assumed his luck would continue seems dubious. Alternatively, it might have been one calculated gamble too far.
Whatever, I'm thankful that he 'saved' us from a further Brown and then a Miliband government, and gave us the referendum.
The best thing about the EU doing it this way, is that there would be no Veto and it would all be done on bureaucratic decision and QMV.
Why not just accept the result and move on?
https://twitter.com/albertonardelli/status/746417191847813120
There are always going to be loudmouths posturing for their national electorates, but there's billions of euros of trade at stake. Money talks, bullshit walks as my dear old Granny used to say.
Not good. However when the visas don't transpire they will be older and wiser.
You do also wonder how many in that age group talked to their Gran and got told how it was and voted leave. I think the 75/25 numbers I have seen is bunkum.
Inner London
Remain 931,696 72%
Leave 368,262 28%
Outer London
Remain 1,331,823 54%
Leave 1,144,970 46%
Hopefully I've done the calculation correctly.
Outer London is not too dissimilar to the country as a whole and more Leave than Manchester, Liverpool, Cardiff and Bristol. The big outlier is Inner London.
https://uk.search.yahoo.com/search?fr=mcafee&type=C111GB0D20151004&p=giovinezza+youtube+music
Magnanimity in victory continuing I see
It's decent people versus traitors
The discussion was not about whether the EU would or would not do things this way. It was that the EU could do it this way. And clearly it is well within its purview.
As my wife says: if you pretend not to be different, you're generally fine.
But, some infants are throwing their toys out of the pram.
unless youre Osborne
Older boys at my school would routinely discuss going queer or paki bashing. I wish I could remember what changed. We just didn't talk or think like that by the time we reached 5th form.
It's not gone away of course, but we've made some progress.
By rushing through the negotiation and ten having the insultingly short campaign period he completely banjoed any chance at a either a proper debate or substantive change.
If he'd taken a year to negotiate to get something worthwhile and then given the country a year to decide in a proper campaign then Remain would have won.
But he wanted to rush through the process to give the Conservatives as much time as possible to heal before the next election - trusting his great "Leader Satisfaction" ratings with Conservative voters to get him through it. Only too late did he realise that those numbers were driven by a majority of voters who thought he was one-of-them, a Eurosceptic.
Once the scales fell from their eyes he was screwed.
you have little idea of how this society has evolved.
And as you say having the talent to exploit the luck, as Cameron did.
In the end hubris, complacency and a turning of the luck did for them as well.
The clue in my post is the "more likely"
I am so utterly depressed that this reactionary, populist, nihilistic, racist, vote was predominantly dominated by the narrow minded, ignorant, voting oldies who have imposed their dark, bleak vision of the future on the optimistic youth.
Old King Cole... if you and your friends voted remain, and if you are as genuinely appalled (and repelled) by this awful vote, then I think we are on the same side.
If there was Brexit, and other states were moaning about leaving, would the EU wallahs actually want Scotland? What would the EU gain from having it in?
I guess further expansion of the EU is firmly off the cards for the moment.
Amongst all voters Johnson on 28%, then May on 18%, Davidson on 10%, Gove on 9%, Osborne on 8%
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/2016/06/how-the-united-kingdom-voted-and-why/#more-14746