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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s finding You Can’t Always Get What EU Want

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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    I want to see Cameron on those steps of Downing Street announcing his RESIGNATION ASAP!!!!!!
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    Any Scottish folk staying up for the full UK result? :)

    Oh yes, albeit as Scot living in London.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    hunchman said:

    Justine Greening looking very bitter on the Beeb!

    I'm surprised she was Remain.

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    Any Scottish folk staying up for the full UK result? :)

    I'm trying.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    Britain Elects ‏@britainelects 1m1 minute ago
    Mansfield, #EUref result:
    Remain: 29.1% (16,417)
    Leave: 70.9% (39,927)

    John Mann territory

    Good Mann.
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    edited June 2016
    alex. said:

    Farage "we'll have done it without a single bullet being fired" - unfortunate turn of phrase.

    The man is scum.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,197
    surbiton said:

    Is the Sutton result correct ?

    It is.
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    The percentage gap between Leave and Remain is shrinking all the time. Now 2.2%
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850

    Sutton votes out!

    London Borough of?????????????
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    TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016

    hunchman said:

    Justine Greening looking very bitter on the Beeb!

    I'm surprised she was Remain.
    So was Justine.
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    old_labourold_labour Posts: 3,238

    John McTernan keeps up his impeccable predictive record.

    https://twitter.com/WingsScotland/status/746174590871822336

    :smiley:
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,384
    Sutton votes LEAVE
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    David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    RobD said:

    OMG Farage is out of a job!

    The job is to make the MPs implement the people's wishes.

    This will take some years.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,124
    S Oxfordshire Remain 55% Leave 45%
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,125
    Thrak said:

    alex. said:

    Farage "we'll have done it without a single bullet being fired" - unfortunate turn of phrase.

    The man is scum.
    Last night he was saying that he regretted the death of Jo Cox, as if she was collateral damage.
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    Tim_B said:

    The percentage gap between Leave and Remain is shrinking all the time. Now 2.2%

    Remain have been firing some of their last big guns - Manchester, Cardiff, Bristol etc. Not many left now.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 58,986
    South Oxfordshire Remain :D
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    Sterling down 13c vs the US$ now.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,124
    Tunbridge Wells Remain 55% Leave 45%
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Pound at lowest level in 31 years...
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    Any Scottish folk staying up for the full UK result? :)

    Great result for Scottish Independence. I'm staying up and still hoping to win a lot of money off the bookies.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    The GDP is falling in front of our very eyes ! Not by 0.1% every quarter but by a bigger margin straightaway.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,368
    Is the BoE just not acting in the market at all? Or is it overwhelmed.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    £ at its lowest level since 1985
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383

    Sutton votes LEAVE

    I'm astonished by that
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Tim_B said:

    Manchester, Brum and parts of London yet to report. Leave now 500k ahead - they'll need every bit of it when the big cities come in.

    Your Birmingham reporter can tell you it'll be about 50-50 here. Our neighbours are all quite normal but they think we're mad because we have a Remain card in the window.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    DavidL said:

    Why are Boris and Gove letting Farage be the face of this win? Really strange politics.

    They are busy forming the next government.
    Indeed. Farage can go shuffle off into obscurity as an ex-MEP. PM Johnson/Gove as the case may be can get on with securing a proud and optimistic future.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,124
    Rutland Leave 50.6%
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    The GDP is falling in front of our very eyes ! Not by 0.1% every quarter but by a bigger margin straightaway.

    We'll survive.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    AndyJS said:
    Didn't happen - 67.5 - 32.5 - which is very good for leave.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    Interesting that virtually no Outer London boroughs have declared yet.
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    Former US ambassador to the EU, Richard Morningstar, says on Radio 4 that if the US takes a tough line on Britain, that could discourage other EU members from leaving. Time to end the EU and have a European cooperation that's genuinely independent of the US?
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Where's the Sutton result???
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Reading voted Remain.

    Remain: 43,000
    Leave: 31,000
    Turnout: 72%

    http://www.reading.gov.uk/EUReferendum
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Tim_B said:

    The percentage gap between Leave and Remain is shrinking all the time. Now 2.2%

    Remain have been firing some of their last big guns - Manchester, Cardiff, Bristol etc. Not many left now.
    Many parts of London. Birmingham ?
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,295
    Remain now in double figures on BF
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    Is Cornwall reporting as a whole as part of the unitary authority? Presumably a decent Leave win? When's it due?
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    JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    there should never ever ever ever again be one single fixed line phone poll permitted in this country. It should become a prosecutable criminal offence to conduct one.

    I said yesterday that even if I was 100% leave I would have told someone remain over the phone. It's not rocket science. It really isn't.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,295

    Interesting that virtually no Outer London boroughs have declared yet.

    Oh, a passing straw.
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    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    The biggest crisis for the UK since WW2.

    Fucked.

    Farewell EU. Farewell Scotland. Farewell Gibraltar.

    Farewell Cameron.

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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,125
    John_N4 said:

    Former US ambassador says on Radio 4 that if the US takes a tough line on Britain, that could discourage other EU members from leaving. Time to end the EU and have a European cooperation that's genuinely independent of the US?

    Haha... Brexit as the start of a Gaullist movement? :)
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503



    Thrak said:

    alex. said:

    Farage "we'll have done it without a single bullet being fired" - unfortunate turn of phrase.

    The man is scum.
    Last night he was saying that he regretted the death of Jo Cox, as if she was collateral damage.
    Remain spent far too much time venting their spleen on Farage. This was a daft thing to do. For his supporters, he's their God. They would follow him anywhere. For most Leavers he's completely irrelevant. Trying to equate Leave with Farage just made Remain look idiotic. Going after Boris was the right thing to do, but they picked the wrong people to do it.
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    SandpitSandpit Posts: 49,941
    Congratulations to Dan Hannan on his forthcoming redundancy!
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Losers at 12 on BF...
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,127

    Interesting that virtually no Outer London boroughs have declared yet.

    Barking, Sutton and Bexley are Leave
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    John_N4 said:

    Former US ambassador says on Radio 4 that if the US takes a tough line on Britain, that could discourage other EU members from leaving.

    The chances of that happening are the square root of zero.

    The USA are masters of realpolitik. They didn't want us to leave but we have left. They will swivel faster than you can say "Obama is a lame duck" and push us to the front of the queue.
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    anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Interesting that virtually no Outer London boroughs have declared yet.

    Will Boris carry those for Leave?
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    bazzerbazzer Posts: 44
    does anybody think we will actually leave? Won't it just get bogged down in negotiations which will be put to people in an election or another vote and we will end up staying in having given the EU a good kicking which is what most voters probably wanted? Greece or Ireland style?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Interesting that virtually no Outer London boroughs have declared yet.

    However, just outside London have voted for Remain.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    N Norfolk out
    Dartford out
    Daventry out
    Gravesham out
    Warwick In
    Hambleton out
    Swale out
    Chesterfield out


    Leave 51%
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    Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Dadge said:

    Tim_B said:

    Manchester, Brum and parts of London yet to report. Leave now 500k ahead - they'll need every bit of it when the big cities come in.

    Your Birmingham reporter can tell you it'll be about 50-50 here. Our neighbours are all quite normal but they think we're mad because we have a Remain card in the window.
    At least you still have a window.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,384

    Interesting that virtually no Outer London boroughs have declared yet.

    Barking, Bexley, Sutton, Hounslow so far.

    Redbridge are recounting one ballot box, I think.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,197
    Sandpit said:

    Congratulations to Dan Hannan on his forthcoming redundancy!

    I'd be delighted if a seat could be found for him and for him to become PM.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    John_N4 said:

    Former US ambassador says on Radio 4 that if the US takes a tough line on Britain, that could discourage other EU members from leaving. Time to end the EU and have a European cooperation that's genuinely independent of the US?

    I wouldn't worry too much - too many people are in a state of shock right now to think correctly - Juncker is presumably in his bunker.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    RobD said:

    OMG Farage is out of a job!

    He might finally win a seat in the Commons if UKIP can capitalise on this. A lot of Labour votes are there for the taking. Unfortunately, he's not really the man to do it and there's little strength in depth - and after this result, he'll be unassailable for 4 years.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,124
    Bath Remain 58% Leave 42%
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,125
    John_M said:



    Thrak said:

    alex. said:

    Farage "we'll have done it without a single bullet being fired" - unfortunate turn of phrase.

    The man is scum.
    Last night he was saying that he regretted the death of Jo Cox, as if she was collateral damage.
    Remain spent far too much time venting their spleen on Farage. This was a daft thing to do. For his supporters, he's their God. They would follow him anywhere. For most Leavers he's completely irrelevant. Trying to equate Leave with Farage just made Remain look idiotic. Going after Boris was the right thing to do, but they picked the wrong people to do it.
    Yes, Cameron should have bided his time before challenging Boris to a one-on-one debate. He was too quick to be angered when Boris declared for Leave.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,958
    RodCrosby said:

    Pound at lowest level in 31 years...

    No big surprise. We'll have to hope it's temporary. If it's not this country is going to be in very serious trouble.

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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,124
    Chesterfield Leave 60% Remain 40%
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Woah - Blackburn 10% down from par for Remain.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    hunchman said:

    I want to see Cameron on those steps of Downing Street announcing his RESIGNATION ASAP!!!!!!

    About 7 hours to go, probably.
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    PolruanPolruan Posts: 2,083
    So is Cameron going to call a GE to support his National Stability grand coalition with the Labour right, or declare the national economic emergency too great to even risk that? It's easier to claim a mandate to reverse the decision following a GE, but not completely clear whether most sitting Lab/LD/remain Tories would retain their seats even if the only opponent was UKIP/Tory leave.
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    Beautiful Freudian slip by Dimbleby there. " The former Prime Minister ... "
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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    SeanT said:

    Broxtowe goes for leave

    Told you so, sadly. 35K to 29K.
    Do you now accept the historic error you made in refusing, with extra chortles, a referendum on the Lisbon Treaty/Constitution?

    If only mature politicians had let the people reject earlier forms of integration, we wouldn't be where we are now.
    Uh-huh. 2004 was what did it. Of course people have got nothing against Polish people per se. What Britain has a problem with is its government forcing a social experiment on it without so much as a by-your-leave.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    West Oxfordshire 53.6% remain shame on you!!!
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    there should never ever ever ever again be one single fixed line phone poll permitted in this country. It should become a prosecutable criminal offence to conduct one.

    I said yesterday that even if I was 100% leave I would have told someone remain over the phone. It's not rocket science. It really isn't.

    The polls broke themselves by weighting by GE turnout when this election was never, ever going to be similar. It's the weighting that's at fault.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    bazzer said:

    does anybody think we will actually leave? Won't it just get bogged down in negotiations which will be put to people in an election or another vote and we will end up staying in having given the EU a good kicking which is what most voters probably wanted? Greece or Ireland style?

    Yes definitely. Our membership of the EU will be over before the next General Election, no doubt about that.

    We'll probably leave and join the EFTA with some migration restrictions, eg an NHS payment.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    SeanT said:



    OMG how will we cope without you, Cameron and Gibraltar
    e>

    Lol!

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    nunununu Posts: 6,024
    salford Leave.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,986
    HYUFD said:

    Chesterfield Leave 60% Remain 40%

    Owls' place.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Interesting that virtually no Outer London boroughs have declared yet.

    Barking, Sutton and Bexley are Leave
    Bromley will be interesting.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    West Ox 352346 - wins for Cameron c5k votes
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,124
    Blackburn, Newark and Daventry vote Leave
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    Is Cornwall reporting as a whole as part of the unitary authority? Presumably a decent Leave win? When's it due?

    Cornwall and Shropshire are two big rural unitary authorities and will declare late. Either county could take LEAVE over the 50% line.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    tlg86 said:

    Sandpit said:

    Congratulations to Dan Hannan on his forthcoming redundancy!

    I'd be delighted if a seat could be found for him and for him to become PM.
    Might be a few vacancies.....I have a feeling a good number of MPs will announce retirement in the summer.
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    Holy shitttt. I go to sleep and wake up to this??

    People will be saying the polls were wrong, how could it be? Yak yak yak.

    But were the polls really that wrong?? They were predicting it was on a knife edge for weeks and it all pinned on turn out.

    Betting markets just refused, absolutely refused to believe the polls, and one suspect that cost some very rich people a LOT of money.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    edited June 2016
    Has any market moved like this in less than 24 hours?

    image
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Looking forward to the reactions of our former prime ministers this morning!
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    David Dimbleby hilarious Freudian slip: "Steve Hilton the former Prime Ministers director of strategy"
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    Freggles said:

    Nearly 75% turnout in the East Riding of Yorkshire (LEAVE)


    Just over 64% turnout in Liverpool (REMAIN)

    @cough@

    Its almost as if PB anecdotes beat betfair!

    Amazing day. Just back from the East Riding count at Beverley Leisure Centre having started at 4am with 15 others delivering leaflets to the biggest council estate in the county. Nothing but positivity. Highlights

    1. an elderly daughter holding her even more elderly mum hobbling centimetre by centimetre. It took them 20 minutes (offers of help refused) to go from the entrance to pick up a pencil to vote Leave. Beautiful.

    2. Gangs of road workers / builders who never had voted before 'how do I do it?' 'a cross?' 'Voted for you!' coming straight from their shift jumping out of white vans to vote.

    3. The pair of 'Sharon and Traceys' waddling down to vote at 9 50pm as 'well gotta bloody vote aint yer this one counts.'

    4. Remain had 10 at the count. Only ever saw 2 out campaigning - the rest were students. We had folk who had given up work for weeks and days because they cared.

    Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. Britain we are Great Britain again.
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    Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,059
    Now there's a turn up to wake up to

    I was spectacularly wrong and ouch. Fair play to all you leavers who kept the faith.

    Wow.... shakes head and wanders off in to early dawn for a crazy work day to come.
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    david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,420
    Sky: "david Cameron saves face with West Oxfordshire voting remain by 5k votes". Yes, that'll make up for The Rest of the Country voting Leave.
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    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Labour's MPs

    OMG

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    BlueberryBlueberry Posts: 408
    Thrak said:

    alex. said:

    Farage "we'll have done it without a single bullet being fired" - unfortunate turn of phrase.

    The man is scum.
    He's a national hero. We wouldn't be out of the EU without him. He's made History tonight.
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    Back over half a million leave, some big NW and Eastern Leave wins.
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Fox fishing for Kippers...
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    LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    The biggest crisis for the UK since WW2.

    Fucked.

    Farewell EU. Farewell Scotland. Farewell Gibraltar.

    Farewell Cameron.

    The Independent Republic of Scotland, Northern Ireland and Gibraltar within the EU could be a possibility. Well, not Republic if we include NI.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Leave 540k ahead and GROWING!
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Holy shitttt. I go to sleep and wake up to this??

    People will be saying the polls were wrong, how could it be? Yak yak yak.

    But were the polls really that wrong?? They were predicting it was on a knife edge for weeks and it all pinned on turn out.

    Betting markets just refused, absolutely refused to believe the polls, and one suspect that cost some very rich people a LOT of money.

    Brexit was 15/1 just a few hours ago.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Newark out
    S Staff out
    Lancs out


    Leave 51.3%
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    chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Tom Bradby says Birmingham is Leave
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,956
    Has Redbridge announced?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Blackburn, Newark and Daventry vote Leave

    Newark is the startling one there.
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    SeanT said:

    The biggest crisis for the UK since WW2.

    Fucked.

    Farewell EU. Farewell Scotland. Farewell Gibraltar.

    Farewell Cameron.

    OMG how will we cope without you, Cameron and Gibraltar

    Prediction: Scotland and Gib will stay, the EU, HAH!!
    Gibraltar is going no where. Scotland will probably remain in the UK too.
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    Lowlander said:

    there should never ever ever ever again be one single fixed line phone poll permitted in this country. It should become a prosecutable criminal offence to conduct one.

    I said yesterday that even if I was 100% leave I would have told someone remain over the phone. It's not rocket science. It really isn't.

    The polls broke themselves by weighting by GE turnout when this election was never, ever going to be similar. It's the weighting that's at fault.
    Basically, the middle classes pretty much turned out as expected. A large chunk of working class previous non-voters turned out and won it for leave.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    LONDON Bexley LEAVE 63%
    LONDON Sutton LEAVE 54%
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    Thrak said:

    alex. said:

    Farage "we'll have done it without a single bullet being fired" - unfortunate turn of phrase.

    The man is scum.
    Oh don't be an arse. Farage is a very effective politician, It would seem that he has achieved what he set out to achieve, would it not.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,197
    Thrasher: 52:48
This discussion has been closed.