does anybody think we will actually leave? Won't it just get bogged down in negotiations which will be put to people in an election or another vote and we will end up staying in having given the EU a good kicking which is what most voters probably wanted? Greece or Ireland style?
Yes definitely. Our membership of the EU will be over before the next General Election, no doubt about that.
We'll probably leave and join the EFTA with some migration restrictions, eg an NHS payment.
Would the EU go for that without us joining Schengen?
So is Cameron going to call a GE to support his National Stability grand coalition with the Labour right, or declare the national economic emergency too great to even risk that? It's easier to claim a mandate to reverse the decision following a GE, but not completely clear whether most sitting Lab/LD/remain Tories would retain their seats even if the only opponent was UKIP/Tory leave.
My prediction, resign now, lay low, wait for things to go wrong and then team up with the labour right who despair of Corbyn. Memories of low inflation and unemployment seal the comeback whilst the hard left and right are left seething.
there should never ever ever ever again be one single fixed line phone poll permitted in this country. It should become a prosecutable criminal offence to conduct one.
I said yesterday that even if I was 100% leave I would have told someone remain over the phone. It's not rocket science. It really isn't.
The polls broke themselves by weighting by GE turnout when this election was never, ever going to be similar. It's the weighting that's at fault.
I think theres a fundamental, and I mean fundamental, flaw in fixed phone polling.
Amazing day. Just back from the East Riding count at Beverley Leisure Centre having started at 4am with 15 others delivering leaflets to the biggest council estate in the county. Nothing but positivity. Highlights
1. an elderly daughter holding her even more elderly mum hobbling centimetre by centimetre. It took them 20 minutes (offers of help refused) to go from the entrance to pick up a pencil to vote Leave. Beautiful.
2. Gangs of road workers / builders who never had voted before 'how do I do it?' 'a cross?' 'Voted for you!' coming straight from their shift jumping out of white vans to vote.
3. The pair of 'Sharon and Traceys' waddling down to vote at 9 50pm as 'well gotta bloody vote aint yer this one counts.'
4. Remain had 10 at the count. Only ever saw 2 out campaigning - the rest were students. We had folk who had given up work for weeks and days because they cared.
Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. Britain we are Great Britain again.
Great post. Truly humbling reading things like that.
Pound has just started to level off - is that it? Or are there still some deluded traders thinking Remain can win?
The pound and the FTSE are going to be going mental over the next *waves hands*. It'll take a fair while for the markets to wrap their heads around this. It's all down to the BoE, ECB and the CoE in the short term. If they mishandle it, big trouble. If they do their jobs, not so much.
Amazing day. Just back from the East Riding count at Beverley Leisure Centre having started at 4am with 15 others delivering leaflets to the biggest council estate in the county. Nothing but positivity. Highlights
1. an elderly daughter holding her even more elderly mum hobbling centimetre by centimetre. It took them 20 minutes (offers of help refused) to go from the entrance to pick up a pencil to vote Leave. Beautiful.
2. Gangs of road workers / builders who never had voted before 'how do I do it?' 'a cross?' 'Voted for you!' coming straight from their shift jumping out of white vans to vote.
3. The pair of 'Sharon and Traceys' waddling down to vote at 9 50pm as 'well gotta bloody vote aint yer this one counts.'
4. Remain had 10 at the count. Only ever saw 2 out campaigning - the rest were students. We had folk who had given up work for weeks and days because they cared.
Brilliant. Absolutely brilliant. Britain we are Great Britain again.
Well done sir, great anecdata - and some lovely realities about the democratic process we've just witnessed.
Who knows, maybe Gilmore could do it, eh - anything is possible?
there should never ever ever ever again be one single fixed line phone poll permitted in this country. It should become a prosecutable criminal offence to conduct one.
I said yesterday that even if I was 100% leave I would have told someone remain over the phone. It's not rocket science. It really isn't.
The polls broke themselves by weighting by GE turnout when this election was never, ever going to be similar. It's the weighting that's at fault.
Basically, the middle classes pretty much turned out as expected. A large chunk of working class previous non-voters turned out and won it for leave.
That's right. And it makes polling very difficult indeed, because their "fix" since 2015 has been to assume that many working-class voters don't actually vote.
There are two ways of looking at that. One is that Labour's poll rating (which has been consistently ahead on raw figures) is being artificially suppressed. The other is that the working class vote will not turn out for Labour at the moment.
Is that permanent? We don't know. The pollsters don't know. It's uncharted territory.
Pound has just started to level off - is that it? Or are there still some deluded traders thinking Remain can win?
The pound and the FTSE are going to be going mental over the next *waves hands*. It'll take a fair while for the markets to wrap their heads around this. It's all down to the BoE, ECB and the CoE in the short term. If they mishandle it, big trouble. If they do their jobs, not so much.
It could become a bigger issue than just currency market volatility.
If rcs1000 is right about London property, and the implications start to be priced in, then some of the banks could find they're in serious trouble.
Why? The Labour "moderates" are the ones who've just been some of the main leaders of the In Campaign - that surely shows they are no better at winning votes than the Corbynistas are.
Birmingham going Leave ? Then it is OVER !!! 2 years of recession coming.
Yes, would be over then, think will call it a night. Well, we now join Norway and Switzerland outside the EU and neither are doing too badly even if we face some short-term pain. Goodnight
Farage "we'll have done it without a single bullet being fired" - unfortunate turn of phrase.
The man is scum.
Oh don't be an arse. Farage is a very effective politician, It would seem that he has achieved what he set out to achieve, would it not.
It was a stupid turn of phrase, but nonetheless Nigel Farage has run UKIP with impressive competence, as only a fool would deny. He, and not any of the leading figures in the main four parties, whether Europhile or Eurosceptic, is the high-profile politician who is most in tune with the thoughts of the British people. I say that from my perch as an independent radical socialist lefty.
Pound has just started to level off - is that it? Or are there still some deluded traders thinking Remain can win?
The pound and the FTSE are going to be going mental over the next *waves hands*. It'll take a fair while for the markets to wrap their heads around this. It's all down to the BoE, ECB and the CoE in the short term. If they mishandle it, big trouble. If they do their jobs, not so much.
Hmmm. We have a long period of uncertainty ahead of us. There's not much chance that anyone can prevent that.
If we do leave, are all these talking heads who keep yapping about the amazing benefits of being in the EU going to campaign, in the next few GEs, to rejoin? Presumably with the full Schengen/currency union, since we won't rejoin with opt-outs.
Or is the dream dead for them?
(The nationalist parties may still think it is a sellable line. But what about about the Labour and LibDem and Tory remainers?)
That BBC Midlands guy saying 55-60% earlier in the evening really should resign after that. He must have known that was a misleading statement even that early on in the evening.
By the way, the 1.07 figure for turnout above 70% looks like free-ish money. It seems unlikely that the remaining areas will be way under 70%. It's now 72%.
The scale of betting on the EURef is just mindblowing. The previous biggest Betfair market was the US presidential, at £40m. The EURef is heading for £110m, with something like £40m - the previous record - having been traded since the close of polls alone, I think.
Comments
Never ever again.
Online polls were much closer (generally)
Thrasher trying to whistle up a 30% chance from somewhere....
Who knows, maybe Gilmore could do it, eh - anything is possible?
Poor for remain.
He achieved so much, without ever achieving power.
It must be bitter sweet for him
There are two ways of looking at that. One is that Labour's poll rating (which has been consistently ahead on raw figures) is being artificially suppressed. The other is that the working class vote will not turn out for Labour at the moment.
Is that permanent? We don't know. The pollsters don't know. It's uncharted territory.
If rcs1000 is right about London property, and the implications start to be priced in, then some of the banks could find they're in serious trouble.
There's a common thread and it's called the common man. Ignore the British working class at your peril. Labour still haven't got the message.
Or is the dream dead for them?
(The nationalist parties may still think it is a sellable line. But what about about the Labour and LibDem and Tory remainers?)
What if Labour moves a motion of no confidence ?