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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Cameron’s finding You Can’t Always Get What EU Want

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  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184
    Lewisham has just declared with Remain at 70%.

    Where did that Lewisham 83% Remain story originate five hours ago ?
  • murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    Someone is going to make a fortune out of this.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Still waiting for my home patch Redbridge, but gotta get some sleep!

    Laters,

    "Today we celebrate our Independence Day!"

    Maybe it's very close in Redbridge.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Mortimer said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    Where are you seeing this? FTSE futures are 9.992% down as far as I can see
    What UBS are predicting (12%-19% lower) - let's see but it won;t be pretty for sure.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    RobD said:

    welshowl said:

    So I wake up to this...

    UK polling industry 1935 ish - 2016 RIP?

    ICM did okay!
    By ducking out of it. Sensible call.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    Sandpit said:

    Bad Al now asking why did we have the referendum in the first place, LOL

    Because 50% of people wanted to Leave the Eu, Al, the question needed to be settled. It could have been settled when 60% did not want to leave the EU.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,541
    Sandpit said:

    RobD said:

    welshowl said:

    So I wake up to this...

    UK polling industry 1935 ish - 2016 RIP?

    ICM did okay!
    By ducking out of it. Sensible call.
    ;)
  • REMAIN folk carrying on project fear on all 3 tv channels. They lost and were wrong about the voters, so STFU.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    Mortimer said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    Where are you seeing this? FTSE futures are 9.992% down as far as I can see
    Many big FTSE companies have most earnings abroad eg Oil, Mining etc. Not much to do with the UK. exporters will benefit from the lower pound.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,526
    Gisela Stuart switches to broken German in her speech.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,135
    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    What are you talking about, I'm looking at the futures right now and it's a 9-10% drop, seems to have settled there.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,915
    kle4 said:

    I'm a bit glum and serious at the moment. Granted I've been up for 24 hours, but I've always been able to eschew any responsibility for anything not going well by voting for losers. Despite all my arguments, I hope it was clear I thought long and hard about what to do, and even when voting I took a good 20 seconds to really consider my options, apparently I didn't really believe Leave would win as I feel a little shell shocked, and now have nowhere to hide should things go poorly, which given the people about to take over as PM at a time of turmoil, will certainly occur in the short term at least. Sobering.

    But likely for the best in the long run - the EU wants things we don't, it's irreconcilable.

    Whatever the reasons that caused so many people to vote to Leave, the most significant result is that we have (hopefully - cannot yet take it for granted) preserved democracy for our offspring. If they don't like what their government does, they will be able to vote it out & replace it with one more in tune with their needs.

    And let's hope that, as a corollary, our current political parties take a good hard look at why the non-voters & reluctant voters were prepared to turn out for this.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451
    nunu said:

    nunu said:

    BBC now saying it's democracy. I'm sorry but that is bollocks.

    It really is. Ignore the people at your peril. There was anelection and now we have a result.

    Yep, the people have spoken. It is now encumbent on Leave to deliver on the promises they've made.

    But why can't you work with us to make a better country instead of sniping from the sidelines.

    This could actually be good for progressive politics because the establishment tried to scare the shit out of everyone saying change is bad, and you can't ever change anything, the same thing the Tories always do to the left and in particular Labour at every GE and the public often buy it. But now you have an example where people can overcome fear and make their own minds up.

    I am not a right wing Tory. I have no say in what happens next. All I can do is carry on doing the best I can for the company I work at and its employees.

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    More than anything else — what a misjudgement by the Establishment.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 94,914
    Presumably Cameron will wait for the final results before announcing Gove is now chancellor and a leadership contest will be held as soon as possible?

    What a year he's had - the highest highs, and now the lowest lows. Master of all he surveys to presumably quitting parliament itself in a few months (cannot see him sticking around).
  • LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    Posted this mid afternoon yesterday:

    "Sod it, just for the hell of it I'll put my prediction out there, fully expecting to be completely, laughably wrong:

    Leave to win by 50.9% to 49.1% after a few back-of-the-envelope calculations.
    Turnout 71% "

    Not that far out, after all! Still, got to hand it to @SouthamObserver for consistently predicting a Leave win. A man worth listening to, obviously.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    Gisela Stuart: Britain is an open, welcoming society.
    you must be joking, it was fought on immigrants not banana regulations
    Now calling for calm. Good look
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Gisela very very good.

    So much better than the Farage gloating.

    Corbyn chickened out by putting her up to speak - but in many ways it was an apt decision.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.


    Just traders closing the long positions they foolishly took.

    Many FTSE companies primarily overseas companies.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,098

    New Cabinet

    PM - Johnson

    Chancellor - Gove

    Business - Ledsome

    Home - Grayling

    Foreign - Hammond

    I think Leadsom would be a good choice for EU negotiator, or Chancellor.

    If she would do it, Gisella Stuart should be in the Cabinet. Frank Field too.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    AndyJS said:

    More than anything else — what a misjudgement by the Establishment.

    If only Ed Milliband didn't screw up!!
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    welshowl said:

    So I wake up to this...

    UK polling industry 1935 ish - 2016 RIP?

    1935ish to 2015 at best.
  • Good speech from Gisella, modest and calm.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    LucyJones said:

    Posted this mid afternoon yesterday:

    "Sod it, just for the hell of it I'll put my prediction out there, fully expecting to be completely, laughably wrong:

    Leave to win by 50.9% to 49.1% after a few back-of-the-envelope calculations.
    Turnout 71% "

    Not that far out, after all! Still, got to hand it to @SouthamObserver for consistently predicting a Leave win. A man worth listening to, obviously.

    Yes. Well done !
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    So I guess the Euro really is off the table now? ;)

    "Gordon was a moron". This country is run by hypocritical arrogant idiots. They missed the chance of uniting with France in 1956. They preferred to run with the "Five Eyes" treaty with the US, that eventually they admitted the existence of in 2005, if I recall correctly. The text still hasn't been published. Then the eventually got themselves into the EEC which became the EU.

    Then they positioned some "really expert at economics" history graduate in Number Ten to tell people there was five years of testing required before a decision on the euro could be taken. That played well with the sort of people who think Carol Vorderman is a mathematician. Oh, all the cycles were out of sync, he said. Never mind that countries like Italy, for goodness sake, managed to join the eurozone.

    Then they sat around going to the Epsom Derby and Goodwood and Glyndebourne telling each other how clever they were, ignoring the message that the British people kept sending them by voting in ever larger numbers for UKIP in EU elections.

    Now look what's happened.

    Never have the jaws of the dustbin of history opened so wide. But will they jump in? Will they get pushed in? Hell, no!

    Fortunes must have been made in the past few hours, and are still being made - multibillion pound fortunes - as the British economy, largely valued in pounds, gets a big chunk knocked off its value.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,526
    Mortimer said:

    New Cabinet

    PM - Johnson

    Chancellor - Gove

    Business - Ledsome

    Home - Grayling

    Foreign - Hammond

    I think Leadsom would be a good choice for EU negotiator, or Chancellor.

    If she would do it, Gisella Stuart should be in the Cabinet. Frank Field too.
    Government of national unity?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451
    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    What are you talking about, I'm looking at the futures right now and it's a 9-10% drop, seems to have settled there.

    10% is about 620 points isn't it? That's a huge drop.

  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    AnneJGP said:

    kle4 said:

    I'm a bit glum and serious at the moment. Granted I've been up for 24 hours, but I've always been able to eschew any responsibility for anything not going well by voting for losers. Despite all my arguments, I hope it was clear I thought long and hard about what to do, and even when voting I took a good 20 seconds to really consider my options, apparently I didn't really believe Leave would win as I feel a little shell shocked, and now have nowhere to hide should things go poorly, which given the people about to take over as PM at a time of turmoil, will certainly occur in the short term at least. Sobering.

    But likely for the best in the long run - the EU wants things we don't, it's irreconcilable.

    Whatever the reasons that caused so many people to vote to Leave, the most significant result is that we have (hopefully - cannot yet take it for granted) preserved democracy for our offspring. If they don't like what their government does, they will be able to vote it out & replace it with one more in tune with their needs.

    And let's hope that, as a corollary, our current political parties take a good hard look at why the non-voters & reluctant voters were prepared to turn out for this.
    This is a great post. Thank you.

  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Gisela very very good.

    So much better than the Farage gloating.

    Corbyn chickened out by putting her up to speak - but in many ways it was an apt decision.

    She was representing the Leave campaign. It was pre-arranged. It had nothing to do with Corbyn.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    South Kesteven 59.9% LEAVE.

    :)
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.


    Just traders closing the long positions they foolishly took.

    Many FTSE companies primarily overseas companies.
    FTSE can close 19% down and most of Britain won't care. Most of Britain don't have pensions now, so the market doesn't matter to them.
  • murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    I'll buy everyday of the week.
  • PaulyPauly Posts: 897
    Just want to thank TSE et al. for the dramatic and brilliant coverage throughout the night. Fantastic work from this site, keep up the good work.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,135

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    What are you talking about, I'm looking at the futures right now and it's a 9-10% drop, seems to have settled there.

    10% is about 620 points isn't it? That's a huge drop.

    Yes, but not 19%.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,757
    We warned them, we warned them again and again. For better or worse, this is what happens when politicans disconnect with people
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,915

    kle4 said:

    I'm a bit glum and serious at the moment. Granted I've been up for 24 hours, but I've always been able to eschew any responsibility for anything not going well by voting for losers. Despite all my arguments, I hope it was clear I thought long and hard about what to do, and even when voting I took a good 20 seconds to really consider my options, apparently I didn't really believe Leave would win as I feel a little shell shocked, and now have nowhere to hide should things go poorly, which given the people about to take over as PM at a time of turmoil, will certainly occur in the short term at least. Sobering.

    But likely for the best in the long run - the EU wants things we don't, it's irreconcilable.

    I haven't been on the winning side since 2005!

    You are right that Leave owns what happens now, but you made an honest, heartfelt decision. That is a good thing.

    I am even more glad, now, that you made it in time to vote, SO. I was glad at the time, even though I thought then it that Remain would win by a good margin.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    REMAIN folk carrying on project fear on all 3 tv channels. They lost and were wrong about the voters, so STFU.

    No. Nobody is going to STFU. Leaving will take years and involve myriad profound choices. You are going to listen to little else.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pauly said:

    Just want to thank TSE et al. for the dramatic and brilliant coverage throughout the night. Fantastic work from this site, keep up the good work.

    Seconded.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    John_N4 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So I guess the Euro really is off the table now? ;)

    "Gordon was a moron". This country is run by hypocritical arrogant idiots. They missed the chance of uniting with France in 1956. They preferred to run with the "Five Eyes" treaty with the US, that eventually they admitted the existence of in 2005, if I recall correctly. The text still hasn't been published. Then the eventually got themselves into the EEC which became the EU.

    Then they positioned some "really expert at economics" history graduate in Number Ten to tell people there was five years of testing required before a decision on the euro could be taken. That played well with the sort of people who think Carol Vorderman is a mathematician. Oh, all the cycles were out of sync, he said. Never mind that countries like Italy, for goodness sake, managed to join the eurozone.

    Then they sat around going to the Epsom Derby and Goodwood and Glyndebourne telling each other how clever they were, ignoring the message the British people kept sending them by voting in ever larger numbers for UKIP in EU elections.

    Now look what's happening.

    Fortunes must have been made in the past few hours, as the British economy, largely valued in pounds, is getting a big chunk knocked off its value.

    Harold Wilson said the pound in your pocket is not devalued. :o
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    edited June 2016

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    What are you talking about, I'm looking at the futures right now and it's a 9-10% drop, seems to have settled there.

    10% is about 620 points isn't it? That's a huge drop.

    Accounting for the fall in GBP, in dollar terms, shares are forecast about 20 per cent down now.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Good speech from Gisella, modest and calm.


    Gisella should defo be on the negotiating team.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,098

    Mortimer said:

    New Cabinet

    PM - Johnson

    Chancellor - Gove

    Business - Ledsome

    Home - Grayling

    Foreign - Hammond

    I think Leadsom would be a good choice for EU negotiator, or Chancellor.

    If she would do it, Gisella Stuart should be in the Cabinet. Frank Field too.
    Government of national unity?
    Would be a wonderful display of connecting with more of the voters people, as would including some Inners.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 50,526
    Sky correspondent literally in tears giving the financial news.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016
    Obviously the queen's intervention in the referendum isn't thought to be interesting by all the politico types here. Sorry to bore you all. Goodnight all. I'm going to relax away from the screen before taking in the final result.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637

    REMAIN folk carrying on project fear on all 3 tv channels. They lost and were wrong about the voters, so STFU.

    You guys are in charge now, you don't get to tell the other side to shut the f*ck up, you have to make it work.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Mortimer said:

    New Cabinet

    PM - Johnson

    Chancellor - Gove

    Business - Ledsome

    Home - Grayling

    Foreign - Hammond

    I think Leadsom would be a good choice for EU negotiator, or Chancellor.

    If she would do it, Gisella Stuart should be in the Cabinet. Frank Field too.
    Government of national unity?
    Gisela Stuart was in the UK team negotiating the EU Constitution, so she'd be a good addition to the EU negotiation team now.

    Leadsom-Stuart leading the EU negotiation.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Anna Soubry: "It's a dreadful decision".
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    A new hospital every week.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941

    REMAIN folk carrying on project fear on all 3 tv channels. They lost and were wrong about the voters, so STFU.

    All they are doing now is talking Britain down. Their parties will suffer.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506
    AndyJS said:

    More than anything else — what a misjudgement by the Establishment.


    That'll be the former establishment.
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    AndyJS said:

    Does UKIP disband now? They've achieved their goal.

    Their goal is blame others for our problems. Our problems are about to get worse. They'll not be going out of business.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    surbiton said:

    Gisela very very good.

    So much better than the Farage gloating.

    Corbyn chickened out by putting her up to speak - but in many ways it was an apt decision.

    She was representing the Leave campaign. It was pre-arranged. It had nothing to do with Corbyn.
    Possible the news broadcasts had this wrong - but it was billed that, by arrangement with Corbyn, she would get to make the first Labour statement if Leave won, Corbyn would presumably have spoken if Remain won.

  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    What are you talking about, I'm looking at the futures right now and it's a 9-10% drop, seems to have settled there.

    10% is about 620 points isn't it? That's a huge drop.

    Yes, but not 19%.
    I presume murali was referring to ideas as to early movement. Need to wait and see just how jittery people are.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    John_N4 said:

    Obviously the queen's intervention in the referendum isn't thought to be interesting by all the politico types here. Sorry to bore you all.

    A lot of us have been up all night, be gentle with us.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184
    There will be plenty of the metropolitan 'elite' looking down the list of places which voted Leave and asking "where are these places?"
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637

    AndyJS said:

    Does UKIP disband now? They've achieved their goal.

    Their goal is blame others for our problems. Our problems are about to get worse. They'll not be going out of business.
    They can blame the EU for not caving to every British demand on its way out.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 4,738
    edited June 2016
    Relax, guys. Nothing in the last year and a bit has actually happened.

    1) People who believe in a Conservative majority are "fantasists"
    2) Voters don't care about the EU
    3) New Labour is here to stay
    4) Jack W's ARSE is never wrong.

    I for one wish Prime Minister Miliband well in his negotiations in the next EU summit.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184
    Pauly said:

    Just want to thank TSE et al. for the dramatic and brilliant coverage throughout the night. Fantastic work from this site, keep up the good work.

    Ditto.

    PB anecdota has beaten the 'experts' in the media, pollsters, City and politics.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,098
    Silly season on my fb feed - some very tired and emotional people, and they've only just woken up.
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Lowlander said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.


    Just traders closing the long positions they foolishly took.

    Many FTSE companies primarily overseas companies.
    FTSE can close 19% down and most of Britain won't care. Most of Britain don't have pensions now, so the market doesn't matter to them.
    Well, they'll be disabused of that notion soon enough if it does,

  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637

    There will be plenty of the metropolitan 'elite' looking down the list of places which voted Leave and asking "where are these places?"

    It's not ok to talk about racism, but it is ok to say the rootless cosmopolitans are ignorant?
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,451
    EPG said:

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    What are you talking about, I'm looking at the futures right now and it's a 9-10% drop, seems to have settled there.

    10% is about 620 points isn't it? That's a huge drop.

    Accounting for the fall in GBP, in dollar terms, shares are forecast about 20 per cent down now.

    Super. Great news for pensions.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    AndyJS said:

    Anna Soubry: "It's a dreadful decision".

    How that woman became a government minister is a mystery to me.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,995
    EPG said:

    There will be plenty of the metropolitan 'elite' looking down the list of places which voted Leave and asking "where are these places?"

    It's not ok to talk about racism, but it is ok to say the rootless cosmopolitans are ignorant?
    To be honest, most people's geographical knowledge is pretty abysmal.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Will Cameron be as magnanimous as Salmond?
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740
    SeanT said:

    THE SUN got it right, again

    Yes they did.
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,184
    EPG said:

    There will be plenty of the metropolitan 'elite' looking down the list of places which voted Leave and asking "where are these places?"

    It's not ok to talk about racism, but it is ok to say the rootless cosmopolitans are ignorant?
    Yet my comment will be true.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    What are the chances that Dimbleby's 16.8m figure is wrong?

    It implies almost 2m votes still to come - which looks far, far too high.
  • AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,915
    Pauly said:

    Just want to thank TSE et al. for the dramatic and brilliant coverage throughout the night. Fantastic work from this site, keep up the good work.

    Yes, really sorry about the holiday @TheScreamingEagles but many thanks for all the work you put in on this site.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,541
    Lowlander said:

    Will Cameron be as magnanimous as Salmond?

    Surely he has to give a statement before the markets open.
  • No_Offence_AlanNo_Offence_Alan Posts: 4,352

    Mortimer said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    Where are you seeing this? FTSE futures are 9.992% down as far as I can see
    Many big FTSE companies have most earnings abroad eg Oil, Mining etc. Not much to do with the UK. exporters will benefit from the lower pound.
    Exporters will only benefit from a lower pound if they can find the funding to expand their output. If not, they are just getting less for what they do sell.

  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 53,130
    edited June 2016
    MikeL said:

    What are the chances that Dimbleby's 16.8m figure is wrong?

    It implies almost 2m votes still to come - which looks far, far too high.

    There's only 15 counts of the 382 to come.

    Edit: 13 now.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2016
    Did Mr Trump call Brexit? A clear sighted leader that one. :)
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,135

    EPG said:

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    What are you talking about, I'm looking at the futures right now and it's a 9-10% drop, seems to have settled there.

    10% is about 620 points isn't it? That's a huge drop.

    Accounting for the fall in GBP, in dollar terms, shares are forecast about 20 per cent down now.

    Super. Great news for pensions.

    Or great news for buyers on Monday!
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,505
    Congrats to all who made winning bets at huge prices on leave.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Mortimer said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    Where are you seeing this? FTSE futures are 9.992% down as far as I can see
    Many big FTSE companies have most earnings abroad eg Oil, Mining etc. Not much to do with the UK. exporters will benefit from the lower pound.
    Exporters will only benefit from a lower pound if they can find the funding to expand their output. If not, they are just getting less for what they do sell.

    Exporters bill in dollars. So they will get more than at present in pound equivalent.
  • EPGEPG Posts: 6,637
    MaxPB said:

    EPG said:

    MaxPB said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    What are you talking about, I'm looking at the futures right now and it's a 9-10% drop, seems to have settled there.

    10% is about 620 points isn't it? That's a huge drop.

    Accounting for the fall in GBP, in dollar terms, shares are forecast about 20 per cent down now.

    Super. Great news for pensions.

    Or great news for buyers on Monday!
    Great news for buyers today. However, the fact that sellers believe equity value is down a fifth in international terms is bad.
  • TCPoliticalBettingTCPoliticalBetting Posts: 10,819
    edited June 2016

    AndyJS said:

    Anna Soubry: "It's a dreadful decision".

    How that woman became a government minister is a mystery to me.
    It was Nick P's fault.
    :naughty:
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Mortimer said:

    murali_s said:

    FTSE to open 19% lower - YES 19% lower.

    Where are you seeing this? FTSE futures are 9.992% down as far as I can see
    Many big FTSE companies have most earnings abroad eg Oil, Mining etc. Not much to do with the UK. exporters will benefit from the lower pound.
    Exporters will only benefit from a lower pound if they can find the funding to expand their output. If not, they are just getting less for what they do sell.

    UK suppliers can also benefit from imports becoming more expensive.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Still can't believe it's happened. Was convinced it would be 51% Remain.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    Gisela Stuart on BBC1
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Stoke still to come-surely 70-30% to leave.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,541
    new thread......
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,581
    NEW THREAD!!!!!!!!
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    So does this plunge Scotland back into another independence referendum, what currency to use, can they join the EU/UN etc?
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Asian markets already routed, Carney expected to make statement immediately after Cameron and before markets open. Japan finance minister 'very concerned'.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Well, it's done. Just back from the count at Mid Sussex which was 53/47 to Remain on an 80.8% turnout.

    I did call the result at 3.23 here
    https://twitter.com/BenedictMPWhite/status/746166758961201152

    Well done to all who have worked to make this election happen and have campaigned on either side. I do hope we can be friends.

    On the other hand the LDs in the count tonight... What a tedious bunch of wank*rs. Standing around between 4 and 5 discussing how the electorate had got it wrong. Seriously WTF.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    What are the chances that Dimbleby's 16.8m figure is wrong?

    It implies almost 2m votes still to come - which looks far, far too high.

    There's only 15 counts of the 382 to come.

    Edit: 13 now.
    Cornwall has nearly a million population, Northumberland about half a million.
  • David_EvershedDavid_Evershed Posts: 6,506

    Sky correspondent literally in tears giving the financial news.

    In the last week Sky has been biased towards REMAIN.

    Murdock influence?
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Well, it's done. Just back from the count at Mid Sussex which was 53/47 to Remain on an 80.8% turnout.

    I did call the result at 3.23 here
    https://twitter.com/BenedictMPWhite/status/746166758961201152

    Well done to all who have worked to make this election happen and have campaigned on either side. I do hope we can be friends.

    On the other hand the LDs in the count tonight... What a tedious bunch of wank*rs. Standing around between 4 and 5 discussing how the electorate had got it wrong. Seriously WTF.

    Although Leave didn't win in Mid Sussex, I was very surprised to see nearby Sevenoaks voting Leave by a sizeable margin.
  • So whats Eddie Izzards electoral success now?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,098
    AndyJS said:

    Sandpit said:

    MikeL said:

    What are the chances that Dimbleby's 16.8m figure is wrong?

    It implies almost 2m votes still to come - which looks far, far too high.

    There's only 15 counts of the 382 to come.

    Edit: 13 now.
    Cornwall has nearly a million population, Northumberland about half a million.
    Only 37,665 votes needed. Surely next 1 or 2 declarations?
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,098

    Well, it's done. Just back from the count at Mid Sussex which was 53/47 to Remain on an 80.8% turnout.

    I did call the result at 3.23 here
    https://twitter.com/BenedictMPWhite/status/746166758961201152

    Well done to all who have worked to make this election happen and have campaigned on either side. I do hope we can be friends.

    On the other hand the LDs in the count tonight... What a tedious bunch of wank*rs. Standing around between 4 and 5 discussing how the electorate had got it wrong. Seriously WTF.

    Well done sir, well done.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    AndyJS said:

    Well, it's done. Just back from the count at Mid Sussex which was 53/47 to Remain on an 80.8% turnout.

    I did call the result at 3.23 here
    https://twitter.com/BenedictMPWhite/status/746166758961201152

    Well done to all who have worked to make this election happen and have campaigned on either side. I do hope we can be friends.

    On the other hand the LDs in the count tonight... What a tedious bunch of wank*rs. Standing around between 4 and 5 discussing how the electorate had got it wrong. Seriously WTF.

    Although Leave didn't win in Mid Sussex, I was very surprised to see nearby Sevenoaks voting Leave by a sizeable margin.
    Didn't see that. Wow. :)
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Mortimer said:

    Well, it's done. Just back from the count at Mid Sussex which was 53/47 to Remain on an 80.8% turnout.

    I did call the result at 3.23 here
    https://twitter.com/BenedictMPWhite/status/746166758961201152

    Well done to all who have worked to make this election happen and have campaigned on either side. I do hope we can be friends.

    On the other hand the LDs in the count tonight... What a tedious bunch of wank*rs. Standing around between 4 and 5 discussing how the electorate had got it wrong. Seriously WTF.

    Well done sir, well done.
    What surprised me was that I was the first observer there, had to organise (until UKIP arrived) the observing. No vote eyeballing going on except organised by me on our side.

    However the LDs were there, organised, mostly pleasant with a few rude ones and a couple of angry ones.

    However there were very few Conservative activists in the room. That speaks volumes for how Cameron has divided the party I am afraid.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    EPG said:

    There will be plenty of the metropolitan 'elite' looking down the list of places which voted Leave and asking "where are these places?"

    It's not ok to talk about racism, but it is ok to say the rootless cosmopolitans are ignorant?
    What do you mean, "rootless"? Their roots are in Upper Street in Islington.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    edited June 2016

    surbiton said:

    So who will pick the strawberries now ?

    The same people who currently pick them. The consequences of the lack of promised change are enormous.
    actually most of the wwc I speak to (and I must speak to more than your avreage Labour MP looking at todays election results), know there won't be mass deportations. I think we should give the electorate some credit they actually understand the issues more than we on here think.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Just back from the Doncaster count.

    1) milepede and the other two lab mps didn't show. They left their workers to take the hit. We took 104k votes, they got 46k. Demographics indicated ~60:40. The wwc is abandoning labour and that party has no answer.

    2) Nigel Farage is a god.





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