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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain

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  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Pulpstar said:

    This is over.

    I seem to remember declaring 1.86 free money last year too!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,458
    Nationally now Leave 50.9% Remain 49.1%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    KentRising said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    Leave 3% above par in Merton

    KentRising said:

    Merton, at 67% for Remain, par.

    Which is it?
    Merton only 62.9% Remain, so I'm wrong. 3% below par for Remain there.
    In line with Hanretty's figures.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    williamglenn said:

    hunchman said:

    Caroline Spelman is the Tory version of Angela Eagle!

    Harsh.
    She's just said a falling pound is bad for the West Midlands exporters! Goodness a Tory MP with no comprehension of basic economics!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    rcs1000 said:

    This has been - by a mile - my most profitable betting evening of all time.

    Good to hear!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,424
    Leave past 5 million votes. 50.7%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Did anyone take 15/1 a few hours ago? I remember someone saying they were going to "have a nibble".
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    S Somerset and S Ribble and Erewash are OUT
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    BBC - this isn't about the EU.

    I think you'll find it is.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,458
    Haringey Remain 74% Leave 26%
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Leave 157k ahead
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    This has been - by a mile - my most profitable betting evening of all time.

    I very nearly lost 5 figures. Congratulations on your profits, well played.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    PlatoSaid said:

    tlg86 said:

    16 and 17 year olds could have made all the difference (had they been allowed to vote).

    And your point is caller? That naive and idealistic voters favour a certain POV?
    So could 14 & 15 years olds.... votes for junior school pupils anyone ?
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Crossover for the nth time.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,424
    rcs1000 said:

    This has been - by a mile - my most profitable betting evening of all time.

    Well done!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Has there been about £30m wagered on BF since the polls closed?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    KentRising said:

    BBC - this isn't about the EU.

    I think you'll find it is.

    Head...desk...thud....
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    If Birmingham votes Leave it really is over I think.

    Yes. London can only cancel out the Shires.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Carlisle out.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,138
    Thrasher saying 53% Leave
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,665
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    It is interesting...several years ago it was all thought naively that Tory voters on the whole wanted to leave, Labour remain.

    What we are seeing are huge areas of working class areas that used to be Labour heartlands going stongly Leave, and it seems the richer SE Tory areas IN.

    Yes, good point. This is getting hidden when the party splits are examined - Labour voters break heavily for Remain, but that's because Labour are no longer the party of the WWC. At the risk of wildly over-simplifying, All those Labour Remain voters are middle-class public sector workers in London, Manchester and Scotland.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Thrasher 53:47 forecast
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,424
    Thrasher on Sky now - predicting Leave ahead 53/47
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    edited June 2016
    Thrasher Forecast Model - 53/47 to leave
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,677
    KentRising said:

    Coventry LEAVE!

    Beware the non-London Commonwealth vote!

    Coventry my home during the working week :)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    AndyJS said:

    Did anyone take 15/1 a few hours ago? I remember someone saying they were going to "have a nibble".

    Yup - but not enough.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    SeanT said:

    You know, in the end, you don't fuck with the British people.

    and you don't fu*k with Sean Thomas!
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Haringey Remain 74% Leave 26%

    In line with expectations.
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    Pong said:

    Spin have completely given up

    & Ladbrokes...

    Ladbrokes Politics Verified account 
    ‏@LadPolitics
    Without doubt the craziest, fastest moving political betting market in recent history #EUref


    Brendon Hope ‏@BrendonHope · 43m
    @LadPolitics like taking candy off a baby.


    Like taking candy off a baby, indeed.

    I think (at a late stage) I took £150 off Baby Shadwell.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Bare in mind that we haven't even started on Yorks. This could get worse for remain.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,891
    MP_SE said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This has been - by a mile - my most profitable betting evening of all time.

    I very nearly lost 5 figures.
    Ouch :(
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I do not understand one thing. If the WWC are so angry, why are the UKIP not doing much better in by-elections ?
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    John_N4 said:

    Australian, Canadian and Indian voters swing it for Leave - lol

    The Queen's Blessed Commonwealth Of Nations.

    Writing that with Rees-Mogg speaking in the background... oh wow. I'm high on Britishness right now.. ;)
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,406
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Thrasher Forecast Model - 53/47 to leave

    In from 56. The trend is with Remain.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    MK win for Leave.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,458
    Milton Keynes Leave 51%
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    Oadby out
    Haringey in
    Halton out
    Yorks and Humber Out
    Gateshead out
    Worcester out
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Sunil_Prasannan said:

    KentRising said:

    Coventry LEAVE!

    Beware the non-London Commonwealth vote!

    Coventry my home during the working week :)
    BeLeave. I'm buying shares in the Sunil Sun and making a killing!!!!!!!!!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    KentRising said:

    BBC - this isn't about the EU.

    I think you'll find it is.

    Head...desk...thud....
    No, it's about waycism, and Jo, and stuff...
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,458
    Wirral Remain 52% Leave 48%
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    HYUFD said:

    Haringey Remain 74% Leave 26%

    Remain 1.5% over par there.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Remain 3% above par in Wirral
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Chameleon said:

    Bare in mind that we haven't even started on Yorks. This could get worse for remain.

    If it's anything like the North East it's going to be painful.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,424
    KentRising said:

    BBC - this isn't about the EU.

    I think you'll find it is.

    I think the BBC have packed up the champagne tonight.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,034
    Just put £200 on leave.. Astounding it is 1.86.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Always been a big fan of Peter Kellner so I'm not gloating just reporting:

    https://twitter.com/PeterKellner1/status/746161085284290560
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    SeanT said:

    You know, in the end, you don't fuck with the British people.

    Hmm. People in the most marginalised parts of the country took their punishment more quietly than almost any other Europeans did during the Thatcher years.

    Now those areas are voting out.

  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    HYUFD said:

    Milton Keynes Leave 51%

    Wow....how that on the golfing scorecard...I would have naively had it as solid Remain.
  • FormerToryOrangeFormerToryOrange Posts: 112
    tlg86 said:

    16 and 17 year olds could have made all the difference (had they been allowed to vote).

    Yes, and 10 year old no doubt. But we don't let children vote for good reasons.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    williamglenn said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Thrasher Forecast Model - 53/47 to leave

    In from 56. The trend is with Remain.
    Clutching at straws
  • initforthemoneyinitforthemoney Posts: 736
    SeanT said:

    You know, in the end, you don't fuck with the British people.

    the english and welsh people perhaps. apparently you can fuck with the scots a lot.
  • ChelyabinskChelyabinsk Posts: 499
    tlg86 said:

    16 and 17 year olds could have made all the difference (had they been allowed to vote).

    They'll have to cheer themselves up with a stiff drink- when they're old enough to buy one.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,424
    RodCrosby said:

    Has there been about £30m wagered on BF since the polls closed?

    Yep!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    KentRising said:

    BBC - this isn't about the EU.

    I think you'll find it is.

    You must be watching a different BBC.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,458
    Fife Remain 59% Leave 41%
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    Just think all the millions and billions the City has wasted to prop up Remain in the betting and currency markets, all the time the small peasants were betting on Leave and selling pounds.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    edited June 2016
    williamglenn said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Thrasher Forecast Model - 53/47 to leave

    In from 56. The trend is with Remain.
    He was quite clear to ignore the first "prediction" as not enough data, so no trend.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pulpstar said:

    Just put £200 on leave.. Astounding it is 1.86.

    Keep going, Hanretty says Remain's chances are 0.03%.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,458
    Gateshead Leave 57% Remain 43%
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    hunchman said:

    SeanT said:

    You know, in the end, you don't fuck with the British people.

    and you don't fu*k with Sean Thomas!
    Millions of women beg to differ
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,458
    Rushmoor Leave 58%
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,826
    Sandpit said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This has been - by a mile - my most profitable betting evening of all time.

    Well done!
    Well done. I was expecting a solid remain win but even from my starting point I have managed to turn things around and come out with a reasonable profit. Only until I next look at my shares and pension or choose to travel abroad, of course...
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Mortimer said:

    MK win for Leave.

    MK! Benn!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,138
    Milton Keynes votes to Leave by 51.5 to 48.5
  • chestnutchestnut Posts: 7,341
    Sevenoaks votes leave
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    HYUFD said:

    Milton Keynes Leave 51%

    One of the most important bellwethers.
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Headlines we won't see:
    1) It was Australians, Canadians and Indians that won it
    2) It was the queen that won it, with her last-minute intervention asking for three good reasons to stay in the EU
    3) Was Thomas Mair known to MI5?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,458
    Sevenoaks Leave 54% Remain 46%
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Remain needs a lot more results like Wirral and Stroud and quick.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    HYUFD said:

    Gateshead Leave 57% Remain 43%

    Blimey, that was 51% Remain on Hanretty's sheet
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    surbiton said:

    AndyJS said:

    If Birmingham votes Leave it really is over I think.

    Yes. London can only cancel out the Shires.
    No it can't. London is not *that* big, despite what people who live there think, especially in terms of eligible voters who turned out to vote.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    Wolverhampton Out...yet another midlands town for Out.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    edited June 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Did anyone take 15/1 a few hours ago? I remember someone saying they were going to "have a nibble".


    14 for me. £75
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,458
    Wolverhampton Leave 63%

    Lichfield and Ashford vote Leave
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    John_N4 said:

    Australian, Canadian and Indian voters swing it for Leave - lol

    My Canadian girlfriend voted Leave with relish. Something about "if I have to pay for a visa and the NHS subsidy and a UK driving license, so blimmin' well should they..."
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052
    It is hard to believe people are still matching Leave at 1.8
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    What on earth is going on with Betfair? It's like Nuneaton again last year.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,203
    tlg86 said:

    Milton Keynes votes to Leave by 51.5 to 48.5

    It's over now yes?
  • GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,236
    Wolverhampton 63% leave
  • viewcodeviewcode Posts: 21,893
    Mortimer said:

    rcs1000 said:

    This has been - by a mile - my most profitable betting evening of all time.

    Good to hear!
    Wuss. I'll have you know I won SEVEN WHOLE POUNDS in the London Mayoral. Beat that... :)
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Wolverhampton Out...yet another midlands town for Out.

    *cough* city
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    *any other Europeans would do*, I should say there.

    Given the correlation of areas damaged during the 1980s with leave voting, you might very well say It's a reaction to already having been f**** with.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Sevenoaks out
    Neath out
    Wolverhampton out

    Leave 50.9%
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Port Talbot just told the EU where to stick their lack of support for traditional industries.
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Carlisle LEAVE 8% over par
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,741
    Thrasher will eventually get down to the 52:48 figures that I, ahem, forecast yesterday. I may be dining out on this for some time.
  • AndrewSpencerAndrewSpencer Posts: 113
    How many London areas left?
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    What the Midlands giveth ( a CON majority), the Midlands taketh away David Cameron.
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    Late in the day but has anyone got a link to Andy's spreadsheet please?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    I so wish Tony Benn and that rotten scoundrel Edward Heath were around tonight to see this!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Mogg is a CLASS ACT.

    He needs to be in cabinet fast.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    Stratford On Avon - Out ...Midlands town again...
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2016
    Great Yarmouth - IN 14,284 - OUT 35,844.

    SKY National 51.3 LEAVE.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    weejonnie said:

    Port Talbot just told the EU where to stick their lack of support for traditional industries.

    UK policy not EU policy
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Great Yarmouth 71.5% out
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Good LEAVE in Yarmouth
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Dalek returning officer in Great Yarm.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Thurrock Leave 72%!! - 10 points over par!
  • GideonWiseGideonWise Posts: 1,123
    My brother lives in Sevenoaks. Extremely well to do. Thought it would be REMAIN.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,708
    SeanT said:

    I'm almost crying

    Is that because you have heard the news about increased vino prices from tomorrow?
This discussion has been closed.