what on earth is going on on betfair? Surely its lunacy for out to be 2.5 ? Or are there so many voters in Central London it could still be turned round?
what on earth is going on on betfair? Surely its lunacy for out to be 2.5 ? Or are there so many voters in Central London it could still be turned round?
Mike's bellweather of Nuneaton votes Out by 2:1. It's Leave. Again.
25/1 available on leave 55-60%
Completely completely crazy.
Never seen the markets so out of line.
I don't think it'll be quite that high but 25/1 is certainly value. Media and markets still way behind the game. I'm still expecting Leave by 5% but want to see more Metro results before firming up on that.
Slight underperformance for Remain in Hammersmith & Fulham, 70% vs 71%.
Nah, even massive over performance in the inner boroughs doesn't look like it can offset the humongous Leave performance in the provinces. I'll be more comfortable when I see Birmingham, Leeds and Sheffield.
NW, NE, W Mids, E Mids, Wales - leave running ahead of par SE, Eastern, Scotland, NI - probably about par although with a lower turnout in Scotland London - Remain ahead of par in inner London. Less clear elsewhere SW - not really enough data yet
Surely it will end up something like 53-47 leave unless the Midlands and Northern cities are much more remain than the surrounding areas. Can't see that happening.
Asian on Sky talking about how British Asians feel discriminated against by EU over immigration rules.
I reported this as anecdata some weeks ago.
Though It will be pretty harsh rules for all migrants shortly.
I just don't get this. We're in the EU for between two and infinity years no matter what happens. We can't just abrogate treaties willy nilly.
If people who voted Leave can't wrap their heads round the fact that immigration takes time to reduce then really, it's too bad. They will have the opportunity to vote for a party with a different policy, and so on through successive general elections. Sorry, too tired to write a full on essay at the moment.
How fucking hard would it be for any channel to say something like "Remain should be ahead 52-48 by now if they want to win"?
Thrasher had a model up earlier...but he didn't really want people to take it too serious at the moment. I think the problem is where the votes are coming in from.
For some reason I like the idea of a seat Louise Mensch has sat on..
Sorry, I'll get my coat. I think leave have this in the bag tonight anyway. I would be happily surprised to wake up and see London has swung the vote, but I would still be concerned at the implications for London , and even its future governance.
NW, NE, W Mids, E Mids, Wales - leave running ahead of par SE, Eastern, Scotland, NI - probably about par although with a lower turnout in Scotland London - Remain ahead of par in inner London. Less clear elsewhere SW - not really enough data yet
Surely it will end up something like 53-47 leave unless the Midlands and Northern cities are much more remain than the surrounding areas. Can't see that happening.
I want to see some SW results to get a better impression.
Nuneaton and Bedworth result reinforces my view - pre-poll evidence on overall numbers was better than that for distribution of votes. This is still very tight.
I have 13 bets with Spreadex, and I think they are all going to pay out.
Would really like turnout < 70%
I sold at 73 at 300 quid a point, which'll net me 1k. I'm short massively on the Remain supremacy (which'll make me 5k), then I'll make another 3-4k off vote share.
How fucking hard would it be for any channel to say something like "Remain should be ahead 52-48 by now if they want to win"?
All those of us who listened/chipped in to Iain Dale's amateur radio coverage all those years ago would do a better job on the night... we were right. The numpty talking heads across the media is just so poor
The only satisfaction to be gained from a Leave win is that it blows Farage's conspiracy theory out of the water.
I am absolutely convinced that he never intended to lead Britain out of the EU. He wanted to bring the EU as a whole to an end. The continuation of the EU without us wasn't part of his agenda, hence the strange behaviour.
Nuneaton and Bedworth: Reain beating par by almost 20%m from what I can see.
Do you mean Leave?
I've just checked the Britain elects spreadsheet and I did mean remain. But I've refreshed it and the results have flipped around. So not quite as interesting as I'd thought.
I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.
Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.
Yes, EEA and acces to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.
I don't accept that. The referendum is on leaving the EU. All future options are there to be fought for.
Well now you know what happens when voters don't believe you are listening. This was made into a referendum on immigration, so you can't now escape the consequences of that.
I'm a voter myself. If we are leaving the EU I vote for EEA.
You don't represent the people who you got onside to put you over the line. They are yours now and you have to accommodate them.
Have you been drinking?
Look, try and ignore the part of the leave coalition of voters that want very limited immigration if you want. All you will do is stoke further resentment. You just become the next part of the 'elites' that screw them by ignoring them. Put yourself in their shoes and not as part of the metropolitan elite for once.
John Mann very confident about Leave. Also thinks Northern Ireland will go Leave. That can't be right?
Even if not a majority, a 45-55 remain victory in NI would be a success for leave, and show that really it's only Inner London, Scotland and some English university cities that are out of kilter with the Union (the real union).
Comments
Edit. Replied to wrong person.
NW, NE, W Mids, E Mids, Wales - leave running ahead of par
SE, Eastern, Scotland, NI - probably about par although with a lower turnout in Scotland
London - Remain ahead of par in inner London. Less clear elsewhere
SW - not really enough data yet
Surely it will end up something like 53-47 leave unless the Midlands and Northern cities are much more remain than the surrounding areas. Can't see that happening.
If people who voted Leave can't wrap their heads round the fact that immigration takes time to reduce then really, it's too bad. They will have the opportunity to vote for a party with a different policy, and so on through successive general elections. Sorry, too tired to write a full on essay at the moment.
Leave 23,419
Remain 23,167
Sorry, I'll get my coat. I think leave have this in the bag tonight anyway. I would be happily surprised to wake up and see London has swung the vote, but I would still be concerned at the implications for London , and even its future governance.
Leave ~55% IMO
C1/C2/DE's in england and wales have turned out and they've voted out.
Than you for the 10k SpreadEx.
I am absolutely convinced that he never intended to lead Britain out of the EU. He wanted to bring the EU as a whole to an end. The continuation of the EU without us wasn't part of his agenda, hence the strange behaviour.
Mr Pubgoer, take a bow.
Remain 53% Leave 47%
Everyone will need it.
Remain 58%
Leave 42%