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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain

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  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    John_N4 said:

    Remain consistently performing above par in London.

    London stands alone. It really does. This is over.

    Greenwich too close to call is surprising. Greenwich itself is more like Lambeth than outer London.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Re-Re-Crossover...
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649

    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.

    I do.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    JM Morgan, forecast — Leave 51.5%.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436

    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.

    They seem to think that our Brexit vote will cause Brussels to disappear in a puff of smoke and render the whole discussion irrelevant.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    South Lakeland stops a Cumbria clean sweep!
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Betfair tying itself in knots.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Leave 3% above par in Merton

    Merton, at 67% for Remain, par.

    Which is it?
    Par - slightly over by Andy (66.2)
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Hanretty: 90% prediction interval: Remain 46.1% to 48.1% <- that's a very small interval
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917

    Leave 3% above par in Merton

    Merton, at 67% for Remain, par.

    Which is it?
    Merton only 62.9% Remain, so I'm wrong. 3% below par for Remain there.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039

    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.

    The sensible ones don't want it triggering tomorrow.
  • SimonStClareSimonStClare Posts: 7,976
    edited June 2016
    Darlington, IN 24,172 - OUT 30,994

    SKY National - IN 50% OUT 50%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Another Labour heartland votes out...Darlington.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142
    RACISM ALERT: Erewash votes to leave 61:39
  • bunncobunnco Posts: 169
    recount in South Norfolk - 'single figure' discrepancy on number of ballots counted against verified total - probably as a result of a single 20-vote bundle containing 21 ballots.
  • NoEasyDayNoEasyDay Posts: 454
    At what point can i open my bottle ouzu and celebrate.

    Freedom.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Did I read right that Carmarthenshire has voted Leave? That was supposed to be Remain ...
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    Darlington out
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Will Durham vote leave?
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,695
    South Lakeland Remain.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Darlington slightly better for LEAVE...
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    LEAVE back in front.

    Come on.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Freggles said:

    I can't sleep. I am going to be a zombie at work at 9am.

    Try again at 4am

    Almost exactly the same position here. I "officially" declared my sign-off a while back after getting too excited by Louise Mensch again, but ultimately this race is simply too close and mesmerising, with too much at stake, to switch off so late on.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658

    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.

    It's almost like they've just woken up to the consequences of what they've done...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    AndyJS said:

    It's going to come as a shock to a lot of people in London that there are so many people living elsewhere. They're about to be outvoted by the shires.

    This is absolutely true.

    What is also true, though, is that London puts into the UK economy much more than it takes out.

    Absolutely, the whole country has to come together after this.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    AndyJS said:

    JM Morgan, forecast — Leave 51.5%.

    That's almost certainly correct. I think SpreadEx will be sending me a little under 10k tomorrow :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    S Ribble and Rochdale vote Leave

    Rochdale 60% Leave
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826

    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.

    The sensible ones don't want it triggering tomorrow.
    The timing is in our hands. Why would we throw that away?
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Worcester LEAVE!
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Worcester 54% Leave
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024

    AndyJS said:

    It's going to come as a shock to a lot of people in London that there are so many people living elsewhere. They're about to be outvoted by the shires.

    This is absolutely true.

    What is also true, though, is that London puts into the UK economy much more than it takes out.

    So what? As a leftie you believe in redistribution.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Worcester leave!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Leave lead over 150k!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Brum 63.7% turnout say Sky
  • NeilVWNeilVW Posts: 732
    Mrs Duffy strikes
    Rochdale 60% Leave
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    tlg86 said:

    RACISM ALERT: Erewash votes to leave 61:39

    Should be 56:44 on forecasts
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    I'm going to break my exclamation mark key at this rate.
  • Worcester one of the bellweathers goes 54%- 46%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    If Birmingham votes Leave it really is over I think.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,893
    edited June 2016
    rcs1000 said:

    AndyJS said:

    JM Morgan, forecast — Leave 51.5%.

    That's almost certainly correct. I think SpreadEx will be sending me a little under 10k tomorrow :)
    Gonna buy PB a new server? :D
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    AndyJS said:

    John_N4 said:

    Remain consistently performing above par in London.

    London stands alone. It really does. This is over.

    Greenwich too close to call is surprising. Greenwich itself is more like Lambeth than outer London.
    Greenwich is a funny mix of posh areas like Blackheath and some really poor estates around Kidbrooke (being redeveloped) and Woolwich
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Sky claiming that Tandridge contains Clacton and Carswell lol - they're mixing it up with Tendring
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 21,994
    Worcester Woman votes Leave!
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    Rochdale goes LEAVE
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142
    edited June 2016
    16 and 17 year olds could have made all the difference (had they been allowed to vote).
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    MikeL said:

    South Lakeland Remain.

    Phonebox for Farron...
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Caroline Spelman is the Tory version of Angela Eagle!
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    HYUFD said:

    S Ribble and Rochdale vote Leave

    Rochdale 60% Leave

    Gillian Duffy's constituency.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Wales FFS.

    Quite, quite incredible
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 51,712
    Boston 76% LEAVE!
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    @PeterKellner1

    Seems we are heading for result bad for UK, bad for pollsters and (least important) embarrassing for me
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,116

    Another Labour heartland votes out...Darlington.

    I've given up on the WWC. Lumpen, racist proletarian. George Orwell called them right. I'm going to devote my attentions to other noble causes like saving the badgers.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    John_N4 said:

    Hanretty: 90% prediction interval: Remain 46.1% to 48.1% <- that's a very small interval</p>

    I think that's a little low: I would reckon 47-49.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    NeilVW said:

    Mrs Duffy strikes
    Rochdale 60% Leave

    :smiley:
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Vale of Glamorgan Remain 50.7 Leave 49.3
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Vale of Glamorgan — Remain.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    edited June 2016
    Boston Out
    Glamorgan In
    Telford Out

    Leave 50.2%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    It is interesting...several years ago it was all thought naively that Tory voters on the whole wanted to leave, Labour remain.

    What we are seeing are huge areas of working class areas that used to be Labour heartlands going stongly Leave, and it seems the richer SE Tory areas IN.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    RodCrosby said:

    Hanretty 3am update:

    Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ye5zxykcb

    LOL. Betfair had it at over 90% this morning...

    It is a joke. The betting markets will never be believed again. This after the opinion polls were dismissed for all time in the general election. Anecdotes are the way forward!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142

    Boston 76% LEAVE!

    Wow.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    1.4250 slide slide slide!
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    fitalass said:

    Considering the EU Ref results overall in Scotland, extremely embarrassing result for Angus Robertson MP in Moray as Leader of the SNP at Westminster. Whatever the result, I hope that that his opponents in Westminster took note of the how close the vote was...

    Your tory cousins are the ones voting leave. Look south for your anger.
  • IndigoIndigo Posts: 9,966
    Havant 62% LEAVE.

    Poor Old Alan Mak, What A Shame.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,264
    Coventry for leave!
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142
    hunchman said:

    Caroline Spelman is the Tory version of Angela Eagle!

    What did she have to resign over?
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Curtice moves Betfair doesn't he?!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD 1.42 weeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    Judging from the way Betfair rapidly crossed over as curtice was summing up on the bbc, I think Betfair is simply following the bbc - who as most of us have spotted appear to be a little behind the curve
  • Coventry was 54% remain on Andy's spreadsheet but just went 56% leave
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Pound at 1.43 - either the forecast of it crashing to parity was wrong or people with more money than the sense to look here are in the market. (May change of course)
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    @PeterKellner1

    Seems we are heading for result bad for UK, bad for pollsters and (least important) embarrassing for me

    Again?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Coventry and Scarborough vote Leave
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781

    Boston 76% LEAVE!

    Only 76%.... ;-)
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Right - all green, and if we leave I'll get my first ever four figure political bet win!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    alex. said:

    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.

    It's almost like they've just woken up to the consequences of what they've done...
    Good lord. What has article 50 got to do with me? The question wasn't "John, do you want to leave the European Union, and while we're at it, when do you think we should invoke article 50, and if you've any ideas on what our post-referendum negotiating stance should be, please jot that on the back of the fecking polling card", was it?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,437
    Coventry 55% LEAVE
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    IanB2 said:

    AndyJS said:

    John_N4 said:

    Remain consistently performing above par in London.

    London stands alone. It really does. This is over.

    Greenwich too close to call is surprising. Greenwich itself is more like Lambeth than outer London.
    Greenwich is a funny mix of posh areas like Blackheath and some really poor estates around Kidbrooke (being redeveloped) and Woolwich
    Yeah, but with Lambeth voting 75% Remain it's odd to have such a big difference. I'm wondering whether the report of it being close is wrong.
  • MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Indigo said:

    Havant 62% LEAVE.

    Poor Old Alan Mak, What A Shame.

    Awkward.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Coventry LEAVE!

    Beware the non-London Commonwealth vote!
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    IanB2 said:

    Judging from the way Betfair rapidly crossed over as curtice was summing up on the bbc, I think Betfair is simply following the bbc - who as most of us have spotted appear to be a little behind the curve

    Gosh, it's not like that happened 13 months ago either, is it? Betfair is clueless.
  • GIN1138 said:

    NeilVW said:

    Mrs Duffy strikes
    Rochdale 60% Leave

    :smiley:
    Never in doubt.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    AndyJS said:

    If Birmingham votes Leave it really is over I think.

    Even a close loss is very good for Leave.

  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    AndyJS said:

    AndyJS said:

    It's going to come as a shock to a lot of people in London that there are so many people living elsewhere. They're about to be outvoted by the shires.

    This is absolutely true.

    What is also true, though, is that London puts into the UK economy much more than it takes out.

    Absolutely, the whole country has to come together after this.
    Not going to happen. Too many angry people with too much to lose, those who already know this plus those who don't.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    tlg86 said:

    16 and 17 year olds could have made all the difference (had they been allowed to vote).

    And your point is caller? That naive and idealistic voters favour a certain POV?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Lots of midland cities / towns voting out...Coventry, Tamworth, Telford,
  • Tim_BTim_B Posts: 7,669
    Isn't kellner the German word for waiter?
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    hunchman said:

    Caroline Spelman is the Tory version of Angela Eagle!

    Harsh.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228

    Coventry was 54% remain on Andy's spreadsheet but just went 56% leave

    The Midlands are going to take us to Brexit. IMO.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,058
    This is over.
  • OUTOUT Posts: 569
    Dave's diary reads simply "Bugger"
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Out back in front. Remain collapsing on BF.

    Obviously most bettors are glued to the TV totalizers, which are almost meaningless.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    SeanT said:

    You know, in the end, YOU DON'T FUCK WITH THE BRITS

    MOGGSTER IS ABOUT TO BE ON THE BBC

    :D

    Time for the Music

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SISjSXsb1xU
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Darlington 5% over par for LEAVE continuing strong performance in North East.
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Looks like my prediction of shy leavers over the last two days was right. Don't call one side murders if you want to win their vote.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2016
    Spin have completely given up

    & Ladbrokes...

    Ladbrokes Politics Verified account 
    @LadPolitics
    Without doubt the craziest, fastest moving political betting market in recent history #EUref


    Brendon Hope ‏@BrendonHope · 43m
    @LadPolitics like taking candy off a baby.


    Like taking candy off a baby, indeed.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    How many voters in Brum?
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Australian, Canadian and Indian voters swing it for Leave - lol
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Remain just got (even more) slaughtered in Boston.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    This has been - by a mile - my most profitable betting evening of all time.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781

    Coventry LEAVE!

    Beware the non-London Commonwealth vote!

    Doesn't appear they like being called Little Englanders...
This discussion has been closed.