Irrespective of who won - assuming it's 51:49 either way - we need to take a big, deep breath. The country is deeply split.
We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.
Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.
I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.
I don't think it is. Aunty is just telling me that dramatic win in Lambeth was on a comparatively low turnout...Richmond just come in...69% for Remain.
Huge amounts of Scotland and some of London are already tallied yet Remain are behind even now. It doesnt look good at all for remain. But Remain are still favourites? WTF!
Liverpool have declared too! That's one of the big northern remain cities declared already.
The bulk of the North West (outside Liverpool and Manchester) will be overwhelmingly for Leave.
Irrespective of who won - assuming it's 51:49 either way - we need to take a big, deep breath. The country is deeply split.
We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.
Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.
I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.
Given the makeup of the HoC I think that's pretty likely.
Can I be the first to say: "the LibDems will be the principle long-term beneficiaries of Brexit"
Yes, and that sound I just heard was a squadron of Gloucester Old Spots flying past my window.
The Lib Dems had pretty much the best campaign by keeping their heads down and saying nothing. With one or two notable exceptions, almost everyone who was involved in the campaign now looks less good than they did before the campaign started.
After my lousy predictions last year, my predictions are coming in pretty accurately this evening - turnout around 70%, Betfair now putting Leave in England clearly in front, Islington 3-1 for Remain. I think it's very much a tossup and I can't see why Betfair still makes Remain a strong fabourite for the UK.
I would settle for a coin toss right now. But I don't see one on offer?
Back when I was still a Remain voter predicting 66% to Remain I said my worst-case scenario was a narrow Remain win. Better a Leave victory by 1 vote or a Remain landslide.
Remain landslide clearly out of the question. I'll be quite upset now I think if Remain wins this, we'll be like Scotland in a Neverendum.
How is a narrow Leave victory satisfactory? Several years of faffing and turmoil lie ahead, at any point during which the country might change its mind and want back in again.
All because of the incompetence of Messrs Cameron and Corbyn. And a rainstorm in Ealing. Joy.
London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.
Population of Gtr London: 8.5m Population of Met Counties: 11.6m Population of the rest of England: c.35m
Exactly. People forget that the English live in the shires (which includes some pretty large cities and towns relative to Scottish/NI/Welsh settlements).
Also that 8.5m figure for London includes many many non-voters, because so many are, quite simply, foreign!
Irrespective of who won - assuming it's 51:49 either way - we need to take a big, deep breath. The country is deeply split.
We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.
Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.
I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.
I really think you're missing what this result is about. It is a vote against globalisation and mass immigration. Our precise relationship with the EU is essentially irrelevant to the factors driving the vote. Those issue importance polls which have always placed the EU well down the list are correct.
People are not voting on the niceties of constitutional issues.
We are definitely seeing this again....London exceeding expectations, like Labour in GE....The question is does In get the dock side hooker treatment in the Midlands ala Labour in GE.
Irrespective of who won - assuming it's 51:49 either way - we need to take a big, deep breath. The country is deeply split.
We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.
Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.
I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.
They have promised control of our borders and substantial reductions in immigration. That rules out EEA/EFTA.
David Davis very humble right now. I personally really like him. I think he would have been much better for the country longer term than Cameron.
Give over, everything he has done over the last decade has proved the opposite! And then he goes on to stick the boot in proving just how unfit he was to lead the Conservative party.
London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.
Population of Gtr London: 8.5m Population of Met Counties: 11.6m Population of the rest of England: c.35m
Exactly. People forget that the English live in the shires (which includes some pretty large cities and towns relative to Scottish/NI/Welsh settlements).
Also that 8.5m figure for London includes many many non-voters, because so many are, quite simply, foreign!
The issue for Leave is that the commuter belt - like St Albans - is also trending better to Remain than we'd like.
Back when I was still a Remain voter predicting 66% to Remain I said my worst-case scenario was a narrow Remain win. Better a Leave victory by 1 vote or a Remain landslide.
Remain landslide clearly out of the question. I'll be quite upset now I think if Remain wins this, we'll be like Scotland in a Neverendum.
How is a narrow Leave victory satisfactory? Several years of faffing and turmoil lie ahead, at any point during which the country might change its mind and want back in again.
All because of the incompetence of Messrs Cameron and Corbyn. And a rainstorm in Ealing. Joy.
I hate "the bastards" making the Tories unelectable and the nation ungovernable in the 90s, plus there are simply more important issues than Europe. Whatever the result is, it needs to end this question for the foreseeable future.
A leave vote is final, there is no coming back from that. A remain landslide ditto. This referendum needs to be over TONIGHT so we can all move on, a narrow remain victory doesn't do that. The power of HMG has been lined up behind Remain which will cause a justifiable view that if that hadn't happened then Leave could have won so there will be never ending pressure to have a re-run of the vote this time with HMG either neutral or backing Leave.
I want this over. Leave is over, a narrow Remain vote is not.
London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.
Population of Gtr London: 8.5m Population of Met Counties: 11.6m Population of the rest of England: c.35m
Exactly. People forget that the English live in the shires (which includes some pretty large cities and towns relative to Scottish/NI/Welsh settlements).
Also that 8.5m figure for London includes many many non-voters, because so many are, quite simply, foreign!
The issue for Leave is that the commuter belt - like St Albans - is also trending better to Remain than we'd like.
Where's Pong with his 55-60% Leave forecast now?
St Albans is virtually a London suburb now, so many people have moved here from London over the last few years. Not sure it's representative of the rest of the SE shires,
Considering the EU Ref results overall in Scotland, extremely embarrassing result for Angus Robertson MP in Moray as Leader of the SNP at Westminster. Whatever the result, I hope that that his opponents in Westminster took note of the how close the vote was...
Comments
We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.
Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.
I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.
The bulk of the North West (outside Liverpool and Manchester) will be overwhelmingly for Leave.
Population of Met Counties: 11.6m
Population of the rest of England: c.35m
Castle Point Out
Maidstone Out
Maggie Maggie Maggie
All because of the incompetence of Messrs Cameron and Corbyn. And a rainstorm in Ealing. Joy.
Also that 8.5m figure for London includes many many non-voters, because so many are, quite simply, foreign!
People are not voting on the niceties of constitutional issues.
Where's Pong with his 55-60% Leave forecast now?
Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0
https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ye5zxykcb
Bridgend out
Eastbourne out
Next time Andy, Can you do a copy sorted by name. I don't know where every council is.
I know that will be in 2057- but forward planning does help
A leave vote is final, there is no coming back from that. A remain landslide ditto. This referendum needs to be over TONIGHT so we can all move on, a narrow remain victory doesn't do that. The power of HMG has been lined up behind Remain which will cause a justifiable view that if that hadn't happened then Leave could have won so there will be never ending pressure to have a re-run of the vote this time with HMG either neutral or backing Leave.
I want this over. Leave is over, a narrow Remain vote is not.
Try again at 4am
What is also true, though, is that London puts into the UK economy much more than it takes out.