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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain

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  • DeafblokeDeafbloke Posts: 70
    went to bed at 9.30 ... and just woke up. are remain romping to victory as expected? my eyes dont seem to be focusing correctly
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142
    Pound falling again!
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    HYUFD said:

    Richmond Remain 69% Leave 31%

    Relatively ok for leave
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    Irrespective of who won - assuming it's 51:49 either way - we need to take a big, deep breath. The country is deeply split.

    We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.

    Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.

    I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Cable below 1.44 again
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    SeanT said:

    This is just incredibly close

    I don't think it is. Aunty is just telling me that dramatic win in Lambeth was on a comparatively low turnout...Richmond just come in...69% for Remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Nationally now Leave 50.2% Remain 49.8%
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mortimer said:

    Good result for Leave in Gloucester.

    Basically the further from London and large metro cities, the more Leave is beating par.

    Trendy Stroud went the other way, 55% Remain. But on par.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    SeanT said:

    This is just incredibly close

    How? I really can't see it. The Midlands is going to be huge for Leave.

  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    hunchman said:

    What was the Richmond on Thames result?

    69-31 remain
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Lowlander said:

    Huge amounts of Scotland and some of London are already tallied yet Remain are behind even now. It doesnt look good at all for remain. But Remain are still favourites? WTF!

    Liverpool have declared too! That's one of the big northern remain cities declared already.

    The bulk of the North West (outside Liverpool and Manchester) will be overwhelmingly for Leave.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,699
    surbiton said:

    London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.

    Population of Gtr London: 8.5m
    Population of Met Counties: 11.6m
    Population of the rest of England: c.35m
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Richmondshire Out
    Castle Point Out
    Maidstone Out
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    surbiton said:

    London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.

    Brum will be very good for Leave. Close to parity.

    If Birmingham is less than 55% for remain I think we can *almost* call a Leave victory.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    David Davis very humble right now. I personally really like him. I think he would have been much better for the country longer term than Cameron.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,142
    Vince Cable predicts a "bloodbath" tomorrow.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999
    HYUFD said:

    W Devon

    Leave 53% Remain 47%

    That's par on Andy's spreadsheet
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    rcs1000 said:

    Irrespective of who won - assuming it's 51:49 either way - we need to take a big, deep breath. The country is deeply split.

    We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.

    Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.

    I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.

    Given the makeup of the HoC I think that's pretty likely.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Malvern Hills votes Leave
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,678

    rcs1000 said:

    Can I be the first to say: "the LibDems will be the principle long-term beneficiaries of Brexit"

    Yes, and that sound I just heard was a squadron of Gloucester Old Spots flying past my window.
    The Lib Dems had pretty much the best campaign by keeping their heads down and saying nothing. With one or two notable exceptions, almost everyone who was involved in the campaign now looks less good than they did before the campaign started.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Cable and Davies both basically calling it for LEAVE
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781

    surbiton said:

    London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.

    Brum will be very good for Leave. Close to parity.

    If Birmingham is less than 55% for remain I think we can *almost* call a Leave victory.
    Sky said it was neck and neck, perhaps edged by Remain.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    rcs1000 said:

    HYUFD said:

    W Devon

    Leave 53% Remain 47%

    That's par on Andy's spreadsheet
    Concerning result for the SW for sure.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited June 2016

    Maggie Maggie Maggie
    PlatoSaid said:

    Richmondshire Out
    Castle Point Out
    Maidstone Out

  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833

    After my lousy predictions last year, my predictions are coming in pretty accurately this evening - turnout around 70%, Betfair now putting Leave in England clearly in front, Islington 3-1 for Remain. I think it's very much a tossup and I can't see why Betfair still makes Remain a strong fabourite for the UK.

    I would settle for a coin toss right now. But I don't see one on offer?
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    hunchman said:

    David Davis very humble right now. I personally really like him. I think he would have been much better for the country longer term than Cameron.

    Cameron nobody should forget is the very reason we are having this vote ...
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    surbiton said:

    London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.

    Brum will be very good for Leave. Close to parity.

    If Birmingham is less than 55% for remain I think we can *almost* call a Leave victory.
    If it is less than 59% I'd be confident....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    E Antrim votes Leave
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,228
    AndyJS said:

    Leave is currently doing better in Wales than England.

    Most of The Midlands still to go though?
  • DadgeDadge Posts: 2,052

    Back when I was still a Remain voter predicting 66% to Remain I said my worst-case scenario was a narrow Remain win. Better a Leave victory by 1 vote or a Remain landslide.

    Remain landslide clearly out of the question. I'll be quite upset now I think if Remain wins this, we'll be like Scotland in a Neverendum.

    How is a narrow Leave victory satisfactory? Several years of faffing and turmoil lie ahead, at any point during which the country might change its mind and want back in again.

    All because of the incompetence of Messrs Cameron and Corbyn. And a rainstorm in Ealing. Joy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Westminster Remain 69% Leave 31%
  • Leave 2% above par in Westminster
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    surbiton said:

    London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.

    Population of Gtr London: 8.5m
    Population of Met Counties: 11.6m
    Population of the rest of England: c.35m
    Exactly. People forget that the English live in the shires (which includes some pretty large cities and towns relative to Scottish/NI/Welsh settlements).

    Also that 8.5m figure for London includes many many non-voters, because so many are, quite simply, foreign!
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    City of Westminster: Remain 69%.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Maidstone and Richmondshire both vote Leave.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Westminster is 2% below par.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436
    rcs1000 said:

    Irrespective of who won - assuming it's 51:49 either way - we need to take a big, deep breath. The country is deeply split.

    We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.

    Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.

    I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.

    I really think you're missing what this result is about. It is a vote against globalisation and mass immigration. Our precise relationship with the EU is essentially irrelevant to the factors driving the vote. Those issue importance polls which have always placed the EU well down the list are correct.

    People are not voting on the niceties of constitutional issues.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Eastbourne Leave 57 Remain 43
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    edited June 2016
    Tandridge in Surrey for Leave, and par.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Westminster came in, slightly better for Leave on Andy's Spreadsheet.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Big Westminster boost for Remain...
  • John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    Remain consistently performing above par in London.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    We are definitely seeing this again....London exceeding expectations, like Labour in GE....The question is does In get the dock side hooker treatment in the Midlands ala Labour in GE.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,751
    Another big win in Westminster for Remain. This is so close.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Runneymede Leave 54%
  • scampiscampi Posts: 6
    Remain should be leading by about 5% at this stage according to this great webpage> http://www.cityam.com/243872/eu-referendum-most-important-results-watch
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Runnymede GOES LEAVE - wow!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    rcs1000 said:

    Irrespective of who won - assuming it's 51:49 either way - we need to take a big, deep breath. The country is deeply split.

    We don't want the current EU. We don't want glorious isolation.

    Irrespective of what Juncker says, we need to find a place that is outside the political structure of the EU, that does not lead to hundreds of thousands of non-citizens claiming benefits, but which keeps us on good terms with our neighbours.

    I'd like Gove and Cameron and Johnson to realise that there is a solution that satisfies 70% of the population out there.

    They have promised control of our borders and substantial reductions in immigration. That rules out EEA/EFTA.

  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    hunchman said:

    David Davis very humble right now. I personally really like him. I think he would have been much better for the country longer term than Cameron.

    Give over, everything he has done over the last decade has proved the opposite! And then he goes on to stick the boot in proving just how unfit he was to lead the Conservative party.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 56,999

    surbiton said:

    London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.

    Population of Gtr London: 8.5m
    Population of Met Counties: 11.6m
    Population of the rest of England: c.35m
    Exactly. People forget that the English live in the shires (which includes some pretty large cities and towns relative to Scottish/NI/Welsh settlements).

    Also that 8.5m figure for London includes many many non-voters, because so many are, quite simply, foreign!
    The issue for Leave is that the commuter belt - like St Albans - is also trending better to Remain than we'd like.

    Where's Pong with his 55-60% Leave forecast now?
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Remain crushed in Oldham...??
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    Hanretty 3am update:

    Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ye5zxykcb
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,833
    Markets are shading downwards again and Betfair is nudging back towards evens, so I think the penny is starting to drop
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,436


    Maggie Maggie Maggie

    PlatoSaid said:

    Richmondshire Out
    Castle Point Out
    Maidstone Out

    Well... I don't agree with her later conversion on the EU, but we need a leader of her calibre now, and there doesn't seem to be one available.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    weejonnie said:

    hunchman said:

    What was the Richmond on Thames result?

    69-31 remain
    2% under expected
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Hertsmere votes Leave by 50.8% to 49.2%.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    HYUFD said:

    Runneymede Leave 54%

    Philip Hammond eat your heart out!
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    HYUFD said:

    Eastbourne Lea Ove 57 Remain 43

    No surprise to me. Our MP jumped Leave with two weeks to go.
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    RodCrosby said:

    Big Westminster boost for Remain...

    Lol
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Leave is currently doing better in Wales than England.

    Most of The Midlands still to go though?
    And the South West.
  • Runnymede out - Magna Carta leaves! :)
  • oldpoliticsoldpolitics Posts: 455

    Runnymede GOES LEAVE - wow!

    Is that a surprise? Magna Carta > Treaty of Rome.
  • scampiscampi Posts: 6
    If the result were to be 50/50.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Getting close to LEAVE re-establishing the national lead on declared votes
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,116
    AndyJS said:

    Maidstone and Richmondshire both vote Leave.

    I lived in Maidstone...horrible place full of racists. A wasted 2 years
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    It's going to come as a shock to a lot of people in London that there are so many people living elsewhere. They're about to be outvoted by the shires.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Runnymead out
    Bridgend out
    Eastbourne out
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840

    GIN1138 said:

    AndyJS said:

    Leave is currently doing better in Wales than England.

    Most of The Midlands still to go though?
    And the South West.
    And don't forget East Anglia - going to be massive for Leave.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    John_N4 said:

    Remain consistently performing above par in London.

    London stands alone. It really does. This is over.

  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    E Londonderry Remin 52% Leave 48%
  • pbr2013pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Bill Cash looks happy.
  • Cross over #55 incoming
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395

    Hanretty 3am update:

    Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ye5zxykcb

    Why is Remain still evens with Betfair?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Telford and Wrekin votes Leave
  • Leave 3% above par in Merton
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Merton, at 67% for Remain, par.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    Sky expected turnout 72.4% - highest since 1997
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Huge LEAVE victory in the Salopian Borough of Telford.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:

    Runneymede Leave 54%

    Better than Andy's spreadsheet - just.

    Next time Andy, Can you do a copy sorted by name. I don't know where every council is.

    I know that will be in 2057- but forward planning does help
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Mr Cameron, little england and wales are giving your guys a hell of a beating tonight....
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Dadge said:

    Back when I was still a Remain voter predicting 66% to Remain I said my worst-case scenario was a narrow Remain win. Better a Leave victory by 1 vote or a Remain landslide.

    Remain landslide clearly out of the question. I'll be quite upset now I think if Remain wins this, we'll be like Scotland in a Neverendum.

    How is a narrow Leave victory satisfactory? Several years of faffing and turmoil lie ahead, at any point during which the country might change its mind and want back in again.

    All because of the incompetence of Messrs Cameron and Corbyn. And a rainstorm in Ealing. Joy.
    I hate "the bastards" making the Tories unelectable and the nation ungovernable in the 90s, plus there are simply more important issues than Europe. Whatever the result is, it needs to end this question for the foreseeable future.

    A leave vote is final, there is no coming back from that. A remain landslide ditto. This referendum needs to be over TONIGHT so we can all move on, a narrow remain victory doesn't do that. The power of HMG has been lined up behind Remain which will cause a justifiable view that if that hadn't happened then Leave could have won so there will be never ending pressure to have a re-run of the vote this time with HMG either neutral or backing Leave.

    I want this over. Leave is over, a narrow Remain vote is not.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    AndyJS said:

    It's going to come as a shock to a lot of people in London that there are so many people living elsewhere. They're about to be outvoted by the shires.

    Don't forget, all those outside of London live in a bubble....
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Aberdeen in line with the Scottish vote
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737

    Hanretty 3am update:

    Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ye5zxykcb

    LOL. Betfair had it at over 90% this morning...

  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Leave gets 39% in Aberdeen.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Oadby and Wigston Leave, S Somerset Leave
  • TonyTony Posts: 159
    rcs1000 said:

    surbiton said:

    London can only even out for Remain. It is Birmingham that might swing it one way or the other.

    Population of Gtr London: 8.5m
    Population of Met Counties: 11.6m
    Population of the rest of England: c.35m
    Exactly. People forget that the English live in the shires (which includes some pretty large cities and towns relative to Scottish/NI/Welsh settlements).

    Also that 8.5m figure for London includes many many non-voters, because so many are, quite simply, foreign!
    The issue for Leave is that the commuter belt - like St Albans - is also trending better to Remain than we'd like.

    Where's Pong with his 55-60% Leave forecast now?
    St Albans is virtually a London suburb now, so many people have moved here from London over the last few years. Not sure it's representative of the rest of the SE shires,
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    RodCrosby said:

    Hanretty 3am update:

    Predicted probability of Britain Remaining: 0

    https://medium.com/@chrishanretty/eu-referendum-rolling-forecasts-1a625014af55#.ye5zxykcb

    LOL. Betfair had it at over 90% this morning...

    They still have it 50-50.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,575
    Aberdeen Remain 61% Leave 39%
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781

    Leave 3% above par in Merton

    Merton, at 67% for Remain, par.

    Which is it?
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    I can't sleep. I am going to be a zombie at work at 9am.

    Try again at 4am
  • fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,292
    Considering the EU Ref results overall in Scotland, extremely embarrassing result for Angus Robertson MP in Moray as Leader of the SNP at Westminster. Whatever the result, I hope that that his opponents in Westminster took note of the how close the vote was...
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Runneymede Leave 54%

    Better than Andy's spreadsheet - just.

    Next time Andy, Can you do a copy sorted by name. I don't know where every council is.

    I know that will be in 2057- but forward planning does help
    Ctrl + f
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 62,535
    No Brexit people ever seem to want to trigger article 50. Yet they have spent months arguing for exactly that.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 54,455
    25,000 votes in it, out of nearly 9 million declared.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,781
    Any estimate when we might have a good idea?
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD back below 1.43 weeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    I'd like to see that Leave lead above 150k
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    AndyJS said:

    It's going to come as a shock to a lot of people in London that there are so many people living elsewhere. They're about to be outvoted by the shires.

    This is absolutely true.

    What is also true, though, is that London puts into the UK economy much more than it takes out.

  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Forest of Dean (next door to me) 59 leave, 41 remain.
This discussion has been closed.