John Mann very confident about Leave. Also thinks Northern Ireland will go Leave. That can't be right?
Even if not a majority, a 45-55 remain victory in NI would be a success for leave, and show that really it's only Inner London, Scotland and some English university cities that are out of kilter with the Union (the real union).
On my numbers, Remain get 58-61 in NI, and I can't see myself being more than a couple of percent (3-4%) wrong.
Would it be fair to say that the country is more polarized than Henretty's spreadsheet suggested?
Yes: London, Scotland, NI and the major Mets are more Remain. Everywhere more Leave, often massively so.
Don't want to blow my own trumpet but my spreadsheet had a much bigger divergence between areas than Hanretty's. For example a lot of my London figures were over 70% whereas his weren't. I was concerned about that before the results started coming in.
John Mann very confident about Leave. Also thinks Northern Ireland will go Leave. That can't be right?
Even if not a majority, a 45-55 remain victory in NI would be a success for leave, and show that really it's only Inner London, Scotland and some English university cities that are out of kilter with the Union (the real union).
On my numbers, Remain get 58-61 in NI, and I can't see myself being more than a couple of percent (3-4%) wrong.
I don't think the southern shires are going to save Remain, sadly. Stroud's an outlier, it's becoming one of those liberal outposts like Hebden Bridge. The Home Counties don't look to be significantly above par for Remain as yet.
If I hear the words 'the country is really divided' one more time tonight I am going to scream! Hello, this is a referendum not a local council election or GE, there are only two options on the ballot paper!! Of course that means the country is going be divided down far clearer lines that we normal see in elections! But whatever the result, the voters have spoken, and with the turnout today no one can say that the voters didn't engage and exercise their democratic right to vote and make a decision.
Huge amounts of Scotland and some of London are already tallied yet Remain are behind even now. It doesnt look good at all for remain. But Remain are still favourites? WTF!
Back when I was still a Remain voter predicting 66% to Remain I said my worst-case scenario was a narrow Remain win. Better a Leave victory by 1 vote or a Remain landslide.
Remain landslide clearly out of the question. I'll be quite upset now I think if Remain wins this, we'll be like Scotland in a Neverendum.
In or Out, is this the death knell for the EU? A lot of E/S European countries only seem to be in it for what they can get out of it. Several N/W European countries are tired of it. Could the Euro, defence cooperation etc continue without it?
To have any chance, remain need actually to be ahead in a whole swathe of counties south and west of London. Only a few glimmers of that happening right now?
After my lousy predictions last year, my predictions are coming in pretty accurately this evening - turnout around 70%, Betfair now putting Leave in England clearly in front, Islington 3-1 for Remain. I think it's very much a tossup and I can't see why Betfair still makes Remain a strong fabourite for the UK.
If I hear the words 'the country is really divided' one more time tonight I am going to scream! Hello, this is a referendum not a local council election or GE, there are only two options on the ballot paper!! Of course that means the country is going be divided down far clearer lines that we normal see in elections! But whatever the result, the voters have spoken, and with the turnout today no one can say that the voters didn't engage and
Agreed. Actually, I was just noticing in how many Districts the results are in the 40%-60% range - so arguably we're not nearly so polarised as people are suggesting.
What is happening on BF ? Can people just simply not believe what they are seeing? How else to explain leave being odds against given evidence? Surely they need a miracle now?
Comments
West Dorset Out
Rugby Out
Allerdale out
I'd like to see a slew of 5% above expectations in Kent, Hants, Dorset, Wiltshire, Devon
Leave 42%
Unless I'm missing something they're aren't enough inner-city areas to swing it for Remain.
Some better results for Remain in South East outside London?
Basically the further from London and large metro cities, the more Leave is beating par.
Leave 49.8
Remain landslide clearly out of the question. I'll be quite upset now I think if Remain wins this, we'll be like Scotland in a Neverendum.
Leave 53% Remain 47%
Actually, I was just noticing in how many Districts the results are in the 40%-60% range - so arguably we're not nearly so polarised as people are suggesting.