politicalbetting
Home› General

Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Sign In Register

Categories

Options

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain

SystemSystem Posts: 11,722
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain’s advantage

Basildon Leave 38 pts ahead, vs 25 pts expected if it's 50-50 nationally. Out of 20 results only 2 have Remain doing better than expected.

Read the full story here


«134567…12

Comments

  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    Confusion in Wales. It seem residents thought they were voting to be allowed to leave Merthyr Tydfil.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    2nd!
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    corporeal said:

    Confusion in Wales. It seem residents thought they were voting to be allowed to leave Merthyr Tydfil.

    lol. I'd vote for that :D
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Tom Watson banging on about the Tories....If I was him I would be shitting it about Labour heartlands.
  • Options
    numbertwelvenumbertwelve Posts: 5,533
    You can cut the tension between Dimblebore and Curtice...
  • Options
    BigIanBigIan Posts: 198
    Where's this crossover then?
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited June 2016
    Swansea for Out.

    Out - 61936
    In - 58307
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Swansea much better for LEAVE
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    omg BBC, kill yourselves, you're terrible.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,188
    Swansea 51.5% leave
  • Options
    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,902
    Weren't remain supposed to be winning up until 3?
  • Options
    MP_SEMP_SE Posts: 3,642
    Cross over any minute now.
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    CROSSOVER APPROACHING....
  • Options
    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.
  • Options
    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    BigIan said:

    Where's this crossover then?

    Soon, I think
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,942
    Any tweets from Andrew Cooper about what's going on

    Also, has anybody had a PB meltdown yet? ;)
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JGForsyth: David Davis just suggested shorting sterling, not exactly the Leave message!
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,616
    Results coming in thick and fast now :)
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    Have Sky got Thrasher on? I have had it on for a bit and not seen him.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    RealBritain said:

    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.

    I suggest the Leave side understand these voters more than the establishment...
  • Options
    GarethoftheVale2GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,002
    Swansea for leave. Remain is sinking fast here. Could be only Cardiff that votes remain in Wales
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    FPT
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Wanderer said:

    Well, this is getting bizarre. We are all pretty much ready to call it for Leave and it's still odds-against.

    How many people have in hindsight here talked about how slow the market was to react away from No Overall Majority last year and how much they made based on that?

    If I gambled I'd be betting big on Leave right now, it should be odds-on.
  • Options
    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,188
    Total vote after 10% of areas: 53.2% Leave 46.8% Remain
  • Options
    Bob__SykesBob__Sykes Posts: 1,176
    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2016
    58% Leave in Southend is below par right?

    Leave needs Essex.
  • Options
    AnneJGPAnneJGP Posts: 2,869
    FPT Any TV coverage of EU people? Are they asleep?
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    MP_SE said:

    Cross over any minute now.

    AFT!
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Labour blaming Tories, SNP, Lannisters.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    edited June 2016
    Swansea votes Leave

    Leave 52-Remain 48
  • Options
    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    THE DEATH CROSS!
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    RealBritain said:

    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.

    That is correct.

    I would guess that the part of Wales which has received most immigration (Cardiff) might be the only part to vote Remain.

    The Valleys & West Wales has received lots of EU money, but its dispersal by the Welsh Government has actually managed to make the people poorer.
  • Options
    Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Crossover
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,027
    Labour blaming the SNP !

    The SNP have delivered !
  • Options
    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    Crossover on Betfair.
  • Options
    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    brokenwheel said:

    RealBritain said:

    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.

    I suggest the Leave side understand these voters more than the establishment...
    They also fail to understand that in some of these areas immigration has had extremely little tangible impact. If they are voting against it, they are voting against a second-hand impression of it - which has a number of implications.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Bury below par for Leave?
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Crossover
  • Options
    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,380
    Leave favourite
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    RodCrosby said:

    THE DEATH CROSS!

    You jinxed it ;)
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Jeez Swansea was supposed to vote Remain by 10%, they've gone Leave!

    It's over surely!?
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Leave +132k
  • Options
    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 21,911
    CROSSOVER
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    numbertwelve said:

    You can cut the tension between Dimblebore and Curtice...

    Dimblebore: "Ou est le Masse du Reserve?"
    Curtice: "Aucune"
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited June 2016
    GIN1138 said:

    Any tweets from Andrew Cooper about what's going on

    Also, has anybody had a PB meltdown yet? ;)

    Last thing he retweeted...

    https://twitter.com/GoodwinMJ/status/746130361508298752

    :P
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Crossover!
  • Options
    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 20,942
    Bob__Sykes said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    Looks like the "racist old cow" is going to have the last laugh? ;)
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD falling down to 1.44
  • Options
    GravitationGravitation Posts: 281
    CROSSOVER

    Leave now favourite on Betfair
  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    X-over
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Swansea Leave 52%.
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Harlow Leave 68%
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    PlatoSaid said:

    Leave +132k

    Couldn't that all be wiped out by Birmingham?
  • Options
    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,070
    I'm starting to think it's all over. At least that means I can go to bed. See you all in the morning.
  • Options
    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited June 2016
    I always wonder about this claim of extremely low immigration. I wonder would a better question be a "change in immigration".

    London has always had a lot of immigration, where as in some other places they might not have had many immigrants in terms of % of population, but they might have gone from 0% and so the change is more visible and perhaps worries more people....just a thought.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Leave 148k
  • Options
    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Wales to vote Leave. Will join England. Long live the union of our two nations.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    CROSSOVER. Come ON!
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Does anyone think it'll be difficult for the SNP to call another referendum if it's not just England voting Leave but Wales and possibly Northern Ireland as well?
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    Bob__Sykes said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBP1.4350 and still falling
  • Options
    DeClareDeClare Posts: 483
    Right Leave has won, when does the grim reaper turn up?
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,211
    I think I'll be going to bed soon.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,027
    CornishBlue said:

    Wales to vote Leave. Will join England. Long live the union of our two nations.

    Boom !
  • Options
    OUTOUT Posts: 569
    corporeal said:

    Confusion in Wales. It seem residents thought they were voting to be allowed to leave Merthyr Tydfil.

    That would be a landslide then.
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,568
    BBC: Senior Labour figure says it will be Leave.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,958
    CornishBlue said:

    Wales to vote Leave. Will join England. Long live the union of our two nations.

    Thanks for the SPIN tips Nigel4England/Robert
  • Options
    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    Wexit.

    England and Wales Cricket Team, England and Wales independent nation.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,214
    Bury Leave 54 Remain 46
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,568
    hunchman said:

    CROSSOVER. Come ON!

    Not quite, yet.
  • Options
    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Have Sky got Thrasher on? I have had it on for a bit and not seen him.

    yes but hes been very quiet - too early etc
  • Options
    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    What are the par scores for:

    Southend
    Bury
    Harlow

    How much better is Leave doing than forecast?
  • Options
    marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    Look whos changed his tune

    Peter Kellner ‏@PeterKellner1 16m16 minutes ago

    Looking much closer now; Remain victory no longer certain
  • Options
    LucyJonesLucyJones Posts: 651
    rcs1000 said:

    I think I'll be going to bed soon.

    Me too. Not sure I'll be able to sleep much, mind.

  • Options
    The_WoodpeckerThe_Woodpecker Posts: 403
    The_Woodpecker said:

    Cashed out. +£5oo remain, +£1500 leave. Really think Remain might whisker this. Too stressful!

    OK Bury and Swansea results are changing my mind.
  • Options
    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Redcar 67% Leave
  • Options
    corporealcorporeal Posts: 2,549
    RealBritain said:

    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.

    Off the top of my head Merthyr would be a strong case of the kind of "left behind" communities that Ford and Goodwin identified as being fertile ground for UKIP.
  • Options
    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,220
    Eden votes to leave. One of the three local authorities that Henretty had as neck and neck.
  • Options
    SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 20,782
    66% Leave in Redcar
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    GBPUSD 1.43 gone weeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeee!!!!!!!!!!!
  • Options
    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    marke09 said:

    Look whos changed his tune

    Peter Kellner ‏@PeterKellner1 16m16 minutes ago

    Looking much closer now; Remain victory no longer certain

    Retirement beckons.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,574
    rottenborough said:

    BBC: Senior Labour figure says it will be Leave.

    Sounds like the same Alan Johnson story doing the rounds about forty minutes back
  • Options
    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Gravitation said:

    CROSSOVER

    Leave now favourite on Betfair

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=UArbzOExaBg
  • Options
    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,568
    RobD said:

    PlatoSaid said:

    Leave +132k

    Couldn't that all be wiped out by Birmingham?
    Yes, the big cities could swing this. Knife edge in IMHO. Absolute knife.
  • Options
    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Bury is a horrible result for Remain. I thought they would narrowly carry it.
  • Options
    RobDRobD Posts: 59,022
    Hello Alex! ;)
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,958
    KentRising said:

    What are the par scores for:

    Southend
    Bury
    Harlow

    How much better is Leave doing than forecast?

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1hCtN3IY76azcr_6OiFPvZI0eXi_8JJqxT7d8vNhW2Do/edit#gid=0

    Somewhere between a few and more.
  • Options
    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Leave now 1.6
  • Options
    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    SouthamObserver said:

    Bob__Sykes said:

    We're fucked. All of us.

    Quite exciting though, even though many of us will lose our jobs and homes.

    It is exciting. Then you remember Johnson, Gove, Patel and co are going to takeover, and millions of ordinary punters are looking at significant damage to their livelihoods, and it becomes a lot less attractive.

    From my point of view it's not looking good for the economy, for society and cohesion, or the future of the UK as a unitary state. Still, the sun will still rise tomorrow morning, and it will still be summer.
  • Options
    taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    As a Swansea man born and bred, that leave vote is...well...
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,027
    SeanT said:

    This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.

    Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.

    I tried to save your flat :/
  • Options
    FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,486
    Salmond and Dimbleby announcing betfair crossover
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Portsmouth rumoured 57% leave, Southhampton 60% leave. Woah.
  • Options
    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    FPT @CasinoRoyale I am entirely calm. My view of Leave's campaign is well-settled and has been well-advertised. It is not going to change.

    It is a historical low point for this country, made worse by the evident cluelessness as to what Leave actually want to do. There is nothing to discuss: it is a moral stain on the nation and I will have no part in pursuing this ugly and half-baked hobby horse.
  • Options
    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    and 1.42 gone!!!!!!
  • Options
    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 38,986
    brokenwheel said:

    RealBritain said:

    Extremely low immigration in most of these parts of wales. This needs a masterclass in explanation, and is not nearly as simple as many on the Leave side might like to suggest.

    I suggest the Leave side understand these voters more than the establishment...

    Which is why Tory Leavers have cheered on policy after policy that has done significant harm to working class voters.

  • Options
    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    KentRising said:

    58% Leave in Southend is below par right?

    Leave needs Essex.

    On Andy Southend is 56.56
  • Options
    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,616
    Losing track of all the incoming results!
  • Options
    AramintaMoonbeamQCAramintaMoonbeamQC Posts: 3,646
    HYUFD said:

    Bury Leave 54 Remain 46

    Bury North and South have long been bellwether constituencies. Bury relatively affluent in Greater Manchester voting terms. This is serious now.
  • Options
    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Wexit.

    England and Wales Cricket Team, England and Wales independent nation.

    England and Wales - the only union worth fighting for. The union for keeps.
  • Options
    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,958
    edited June 2016
    SeanT said:

    This is the single most incredible electoral result of my lifetime.

    Also the most pleasing, and the most scary.

    I agree.

    I read Charles' moving, and beautifully written reasons for why he voted Leave earlier and knew I'd made the right decision. But I wasn't expecting the numbers looking to agree with it!
This discussion has been closed.