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  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    bazzer said:

    what on earth is going on on betfair? Surely its lunacy for out to be 2.5 ? Or are there so many voters in Central London it could still be turned round?

    Lot of cashing in?
  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    bazzer said:

    what on earth is going on on betfair? Surely its lunacy for out to be 2.5 ? Or are there so many voters in Central London it could still be turned round?

    Surely someone has crunched the numbers here?
  • david_herdson
    david_herdson Posts: 18,357
    Pong said:

    david_herdson said:

    Mike's bellweather of Nuneaton votes Out by 2:1. It's Leave. Again.

    25/1 available on leave 55-60%

    Completely completely crazy.

    Never seen the markets so out of line.
    I don't think it'll be quite that high but 25/1 is certainly value. Media and markets still way behind the game. I'm still expecting Leave by 5% but want to see more Metro results before firming up on that.
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    England currently 55:45 for LEAVE
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    Philip_Thompson said:

    Mortimer said:

    66% NUNEATON!

    The Leaves have it!
    The Leaves have it... Unlock!
  • pbr2013
    pbr2013 Posts: 649
    edited June 2016
    AndyJS said:

    Slight underperformance for Remain in Hammersmith & Fulham, 70% vs 71%.

    Nah, even massive over performance in the inner boroughs doesn't look like it can offset the humongous Leave performance in the provinces. I'll be more comfortable when I see Birmingham, Leeds and Sheffield.

    Edit. Replied to wrong person.
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Watford and Wigan out. Come on Ave It!
  • MikeL
    MikeL Posts: 7,809
    edited June 2016
    Watford 49.7% Remain
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Nationally now Remain 50.3% Leave 49.7%
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    How fucking hard would it be for any channel to say something like "Remain should be ahead 52-48 by now if they want to win"?
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    Labour will now have to have a brake on free movement in its manifesto.
  • MarqueeMark
    MarqueeMark Posts: 55,457
    Cookie said:

    Nuneaton and Bedworth: Reain beating par by almost 20%m from what I can see.

    Do you mean Leave?
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Sterling falling again. Nearly made 1.46, now down at 1.4450
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    I would sum up as follows:

    NW, NE, W Mids, E Mids, Wales - leave running ahead of par
    SE, Eastern, Scotland, NI - probably about par although with a lower turnout in Scotland
    London - Remain ahead of par in inner London. Less clear elsewhere
    SW - not really enough data yet

    Surely it will end up something like 53-47 leave unless the Midlands and Northern cities are much more remain than the surrounding areas. Can't see that happening.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    I have 13 bets with Spreadex, and I think they are all going to pay out.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    Mortimer said:

    WATFORD LEAVE

    Little Englanders on the march everywhere. What a crass statement that was by DC.

    Counts as London in my book ;-)
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    The main policy implications of this vote...we have to euthanise over 65's, and to reinstitute the poorhouse for the WWC.
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    foxinsoxuk said:

    FrancisUrquhart said:

    Asian on Sky talking about how British Asians feel discriminated against by EU over immigration rules.

    I reported this as anecdata some weeks ago.

    Though It will be pretty harsh rules for all migrants shortly.
    I just don't get this. We're in the EU for between two and infinity years no matter what happens. We can't just abrogate treaties willy nilly.

    If people who voted Leave can't wrap their heads round the fact that immigration takes time to reduce then really, it's too bad. They will have the opportunity to vote for a party with a different policy, and so on through successive general elections. Sorry, too tired to write a full on essay at the moment.
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    PlatoSaid said:

    Wales so far 55% out

    England 55% out

    We are very similar nations in our politics.
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    Significant result: Watford has voted Leave. Expected it to be 58% Remain.

    Leave 23,419
    Remain 23,167
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    surbiton said:

    another_richard said:

    KentRising said:

    Pendle YORKS - 63% leave

    Pendle is NW.

    But that's another big Leave win in a heavily Asian area.
    Pendle heavily Asian ?
    Yes, several small Lancashire towns - Nelson, Colne, Brierfield - like smaller versions of Burnley
  • another_richard
    another_richard Posts: 27,927
    surbiton said:

    another_richard said:

    KentRising said:

    Pendle YORKS - 63% leave

    Pendle is NW.

    But that's another big Leave win in a heavily Asian area.
    Pendle heavily Asian ?
    19% according to UKPR.
  • Chameleon
    Chameleon Posts: 4,265
    Watford leaving, that's a surprise.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited June 2016
    Tissue_Price said:

    How fucking hard would it be for any channel to say something like "Remain should be ahead 52-48 by now if they want to win"?

    Thrasher had a model up earlier...but he didn't really want people to take it too serious at the moment. I think the problem is where the votes are coming in from.
  • RealBritain
    RealBritain Posts: 255
    GIN1138 said:

    KentRising said:

    Corby 64% Leave

    Northamptonshire firmly Leave tonight.

    Louise Mensch's old seat...
    For some reason I like the idea of a seat Louise Mensch has sat on..

    Sorry, I'll get my coat. I think leave have this in the bag tonight anyway. I would be happily surprised to wake up and see London has swung the vote, but I would still be concerned at the implications for London , and even its future governance.
  • MP_SE
    MP_SE Posts: 3,642
    rcs1000 said:

    I have 13 bets with Spreadex, and I think they are all going to pay out.

    You think Leave will win?
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    GarethoftheVale2 said:

    I would sum up as follows:

    NW, NE, W Mids, E Mids, Wales - leave running ahead of par
    SE, Eastern, Scotland, NI - probably about par although with a lower turnout in Scotland
    London - Remain ahead of par in inner London. Less clear elsewhere
    SW - not really enough data yet

    Surely it will end up something like 53-47 leave unless the Midlands and Northern cities are much more remain than the surrounding areas. Can't see that happening.

    I want to see some SW results to get a better impression.
  • Tissue_Price
    Tissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    rcs1000 said:

    I have 13 bets with Spreadex, and I think they are all going to pay out.

    Would really like turnout < 70%
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    South East presently Remain 50% Leave 50%
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    John Mann calling it for Leave.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    RodCrosby said:

    England currently 55:45 for LEAVE

    And it will end up about 53:47, once London and the big metropolitans are in. Scotland and NI will move it 52:48 overall.
  • tyson
    tyson Posts: 6,122
    rcs1000 said:

    I have 13 bets with Spreadex, and I think they are all going to pay out.

    I thought you were off to bed an hour ago.

  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Allerdale votes Leave
  • Pong
    Pong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2016
    alex. said:

    AndyJS said:

    Hanretty: chance of Remain winning = 0.03%

    So the betting markets are showing odds against for a 1-30 shot? Something not right here?
    Both Hanretty's assumptions - and the markets - are wrong.

    Leave ~55% IMO

    C1/C2/DE's in england and wales have turned out and they've voted out.
  • oldpolitics
    oldpolitics Posts: 455
    surbiton said:

    another_richard said:

    KentRising said:

    Pendle YORKS - 63% leave

    Pendle is NW.

    But that's another big Leave win in a heavily Asian area.
    Pendle heavily Asian ?
    Depends what you call heavily. About 20% Muslim.
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    Nuneaton and Bedworth result reinforces my view - pre-poll evidence on overall numbers was better than that for distribution of votes. This is still very tight.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    Chameleon said:

    Watford leaving, that's a surprise.

    Ave it!!!
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    KentRising said:

    John Mann calling it for Leave.

    not calling it a nazi apologist?
  • OUT
    OUT Posts: 569
    Has anyone woken Angela Merkel up yet?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    KentRising said:

    John Mann calling it for Leave.

    Yep - he gets his voters.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    oldpolitics said:

    surbiton said:

    another_richard said:

    KentRising said:

    Pendle YORKS - 63% leave

    Pendle is NW.

    But that's another big Leave win in a heavily Asian area.
    Pendle heavily Asian ?
    Depends what you call heavily. About 20% Muslim.
    That's heavily.
  • alex.
    alex. Posts: 4,658
    Has Remain got an equivalent to Camarthenshire in 1997?
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Leave wins Rhonda
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,310
    Remain now ahead on Betfair 1.7 to 2.4. Either we are missing something from our analysis or there is easy money to be made
  • DanSmith
    DanSmith Posts: 1,215
    How accurate is the spreadsheet? Because I cannot see how Remain wins from here.
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    Mann on the BBC telling it as it is.
  • tlg86
    tlg86 Posts: 26,950
    The pound is nearly back to $1.46
  • Icarus
    Icarus Posts: 1,015
    MikeL said:

    Stroud Remain - first Middle England town.

    I was born in Stroud - Pleased to see that they are quite strongly for remain.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Tissue_Price said:

    rcs1000 said:

    I have 13 bets with Spreadex, and I think they are all going to pay out.

    Would really like turnout < 70%
    I sold at 73 at 300 quid a point, which'll net me 1k. I'm short massively on the Remain supremacy (which'll make me 5k), then I'll make another 3-4k off vote share.

    Than you for the 10k SpreadEx.
  • Fenman
    Fenman Posts: 1,047
    Three years to Scottish independence
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Tissue_Price said:

    How fucking hard would it be for any channel to say something like "Remain should be ahead 52-48 by now if they want to win"?

    All those of us who listened/chipped in to Iain Dale's amateur radio coverage all those years ago would do a better job on the night... we were right. The numpty talking heads across the media is just so poor
  • Sandpit
    Sandpit Posts: 56,045
    edited June 2016
    Morning all. Just woken up. This is somewhat closer than expected. :open_mouth:
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    John Mann's right. It's Brexit.
  • GIN1138
    GIN1138 Posts: 22,938
    So can I get a couple of hours kip safe that LEAVE has won ? Just?
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    tlg86 said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Nuneaton massively better for LEAVE

    The problem is these places aren't huge. Leave needs to keep racking up decent size wins in these places.
    No problem! There's a shedload of them, and they're all going one way...
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Now Leave 50% Remain 50%
  • IanB2
    IanB2 Posts: 52,310
    The only thing I can see that we *might* be missing is that the Tory Home Counties dont break for leave as anticipated?
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    John Mann gives his own party both barrels.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited June 2016
    NW Leicestershire 61% Leave
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    DanSmith said:

    How accurate is the spreadsheet? Because I cannot see how Remain wins from here.

    It doesn't. It's a narrow Leave victory.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    edited June 2016
    Liverpool....where the f##k is he giving the announcement...can't they afford a stage or did somebody nick it?
  • GideonWise
    GideonWise Posts: 1,123
    John Mann very confident about Leave. Also thinks Northern Ireland will go Leave. That can't be right?
  • williamglenn
    williamglenn Posts: 56,289
    The only satisfaction to be gained from a Leave win is that it blows Farage's conspiracy theory out of the water.

    I am absolutely convinced that he never intended to lead Britain out of the EU. He wanted to bring the EU as a whole to an end. The continuation of the EU without us wasn't part of his agenda, hence the strange behaviour.
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    English shires starting to rattle in at a good rate now. All leave.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Ceredigion Remain 55% Leave 45%
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    HERTSMERE LEAVE!

    Mr Pubgoer, take a bow.
  • weejonnie
    weejonnie Posts: 3,820
    KentRising said:

    Mortimer said:

    WATFORD LEAVE

    Little Englanders on the march everywhere. What a crass statement that was by DC.

    Counts as London in my book ;-)
    The question is: how big is the London bubble?
  • NeilVW
    NeilVW Posts: 749
    Hertsmere 51% Leave
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    Icarus said:

    MikeL said:

    Stroud Remain - first Middle England town.

    I was born in Stroud - Pleased to see that they are quite strongly for remain.
    Somewhat atypical I think. In a nice way. Green councillors for a start.
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    IanB2 said:

    The only thing I can see that we *might* be missing is that the Tory Home Counties dont break for leave as anticipated?

    SE is going to be tight.
  • Sunil_Prasannan
    Sunil_Prasannan Posts: 55,076
    50-50 nationally!
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Chris Bryant's area votes Leave 54%.
  • RobD
    RobD Posts: 60,608
    Leave back in the lead.
  • rottenborough
    rottenborough Posts: 66,860
    DanSmith said:

    How accurate is the spreadsheet? Because I cannot see how Remain wins from here.

    Birmingham, Manchester, London.
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Some dreadful affluent midland results for Remain here.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Can I be the first to say: "the LibDems will be the principle long-term beneficiaries of Brexit"
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Pendle was a bellwether.
  • MonikerDiCanio
    MonikerDiCanio Posts: 5,792
    Fenman said:

    Three years to Scottish independence

    Bullshit.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Mole Valley

    Remain 53% Leave 47%
  • KentRising
    KentRising Posts: 2,926
    edited June 2016
    Liverpool 58% Remain, 3% above par.
  • PlatoSaid
    PlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Hertsmire for OUT!
  • RodCrosby
    RodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Liverpool fractionally better for Remain...
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    What was Liverpool result? In? But by what?
  • pbr2013
    pbr2013 Posts: 649
    Does anyone see a viable route from here to a Remain win? I don't but could be missing something.
  • rcs1000
    rcs1000 Posts: 60,717
    Remain still favourite on SpreadEx!!!
  • Cookie
    Cookie Posts: 15,685
    MarqueeMark said:

    Cookie said:

    Nuneaton and Bedworth: Reain beating par by almost 20%m from what I can see.

    Do you mean Leave?
    I've just checked the Britain elects spreadsheet and I did mean remain. But I've refreshed it and the results have flipped around. So not quite as interesting as I'd thought.
  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Lincoln, Rugby, Wyre Forest, Ribble Valley vote Leave
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Liverpool in - slightly above par for Remain, but not enough by the looks of it - surely?
  • GarethoftheVale2
    GarethoftheVale2 Posts: 2,350
    Remain 3% above par in Liverpool
  • Thrak
    Thrak Posts: 494
    rcs1000 said:

    Thrak said:

    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    Richard_Nabavi said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.
    Yes, EEA and acces to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.
    I don't accept that. The referendum is on leaving the EU. All future options are there to be fought for.
    Well now you know what happens when voters don't believe you are listening. This was made into a referendum on immigration, so you can't now escape the consequences of that.

    I'm a voter myself. If we are leaving the EU I vote for EEA.
    You don't represent the people who you got onside to put you over the line. They are yours now and you have to accommodate them.

    Have you been drinking?
    Look, try and ignore the part of the leave coalition of voters that want very limited immigration if you want. All you will do is stoke further resentment. You just become the next part of the 'elites' that screw them by ignoring them. Put yourself in their shoes and not as part of the metropolitan elite for once.

  • HYUFD
    HYUFD Posts: 128,924
    Islington Remain 75% Leave 25%
  • oldpolitics
    oldpolitics Posts: 455
    DanSmith said:

    How accurate is the spreadsheet? Because I cannot see how Remain wins from here.

    Which one are you on? Unhelpfully the one I have open gives 'par' as 50-50 in England, not overall...
  • CornishBlue
    CornishBlue Posts: 840
    GideonWise said:

    John Mann very confident about Leave. Also thinks Northern Ireland will go Leave. That can't be right?

    Even if not a majority, a 45-55 remain victory in NI would be a success for leave, and show that really it's only Inner London, Scotland and some English university cities that are out of kilter with the Union (the real union).
  • AndyJS
    AndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Liverpool:

    Remain 58%
    Leave 42%
  • Mortimer
    Mortimer Posts: 14,229
    Low turnout Liverpool.
  • RealBritain
    RealBritain Posts: 255
    MonikerDiCanio said:

    Fenman said:

    Three years to Scottish independence

    Bullshit.
    I would say less - and with that - goodnight to all ! Goodluck in the brave and stormy new Brexit world.

    Everyone will need it.
  • John_M
    John_M Posts: 7,503
    I'd go to bed, except sleep is officially impossible.
  • FrancisUrquhart
    FrancisUrquhart Posts: 85,722
    Islington vote for In....shock result of the night....
  • hunchman
    hunchman Posts: 2,591
    Islington 75% remain
  • DavidL
    DavidL Posts: 55,867
    Did anyone get the Liverpool numbers that should be significant.
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