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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain

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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    Huge leave for Barking. Wow.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Curtis: fringes of London voting Leave.
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    RCS - talk to me, do you still think leave has this?
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,038
    Can I once again put in a shout for a change to the voting system?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,451
    S Bucks Leave 50.7% Remain 49.3%
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    Wandsworth 75% Remain.

    Bloody hell.

    Tooting !!!!!!!!!!!
    73% was par if England 50/50.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Sterling up to 1.45. London is not the UK Traders!
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,675
    Remain lead 100K or so.

    This is going to be very close and that really cannot be good news for the country. We really have not collectively been able to make our minds up about this.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,243
    Barking 62% Leave ?

    If so then all over.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    South Bucks a little ahead of par....
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,757
    edited June 2016
    Barking goes LEAVE! 62%
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,239

    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:

    EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.

    Get in touch with Boris immediately.
    Yup.
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,925
    The Malcontent @TheMal_Content
    Clearly a lot of pissed off poor people.

    Who have voted to be a lot poorer.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,240
    HYUFD said:

    Torbay and Caerphilly vote Leave

    Hoorah for Torbay!
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,702
    DanSmith said:

    Wow that's a good result for Leave in Barking & Dagenham

    Not really a surprise, if you have ever been there. Havering will be more leave, Redbridge and Newham probably finely balanced
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,738

    Was that 67% Leave in Burnley ?

    Andy had it at 55% Leave.

    Big Muslim population there as well.

    Wonder if Oldham, Rochdale, Bradford etc will follow that pattern ?

    As part of the John Harris thing in Stoke he interviewed some Asians and they were out...it was a combination of I ain't scared and the establishment don't do s##t for us.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,068
    tyson said:

    Do you think the pollsters bothered to telephone anyone outside London?

    It's extraordinary isn't it - City bankers paying Oxford undergrads £250 to stand outside Primrose Fucking Hill and canvass Sean Thomas o_O ?!
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,273
    HYUFD said:

    S Bucks Leave 50.7% Remain 49.3%

    Ouch - that's not good for Leave.
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Big surprise: Barking & Dagenham — Leave 62%.
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.
    Yes, EEA and acces to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.
    I don't accept that. The referendum is on leaving the EU. All future options are there to be fought for.
    Well now you know what happens when voters don't believe you are listening. This was made into a referendum on immigration, so you can't now escape the consequences of that.

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    DadgeDadge Posts: 2,038
    Whoever designed the stage at the Scotland count has certainly captured the mood...
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    Birmingham could be important !
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408
    MikeL said:

    Surely London not big enough?

    Although huge Remain wins.

    It's a narrow Leave victory: 52:48 or thereabouts.
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    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Immediate economic consequences.
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,243

    Barking goes LEAVE! 62%

    Redbridge will go Leave ?

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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,239
    rcs1000 said:

    Thrak said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:

    EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.

    You just aren't listening to the voters, they will turn on you as an elite not clamping down on all migration. If you don't deliver this then there will be trouble.
    I am a Leaver, and have been passionate about my views. They are shared by perhaps a third of the Leave side, and include Richard_T, Max, Casino, Cyclefree and others.

    We need to come up with the solution that satisfies 70% of the population, not 51% of 51%.
    And it needs to be done and sealed bloody fast.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408
    John_M said:

    taffys said:

    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.

    I'm just making sure Mr Meeks doesn't have the monopoly on pomposity. :)

    Seriously though, this is depressing, and it is an experiment...
    Remember the IMF and IFS reports. Consider the last twenty years. Are there any developed countries that are poorer now than then?

    I'm going to repeat 'nobody knows for sure' until I'm blue in the face. But we've had a wide range of models used to forecast Brexit; none lead to calamity.
    Does that include ones where Corbyn became PM? :)
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    TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 40,514
    marke09 said:

    10 areas in Wales declared all 10 leave

    Wow.
    Will Labour be blaming Plaid for that?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    South Bucks has voted Leave narrowly. Stockbroker area.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,934
    SeanT said:

    I think REMAIN will win this, but by the tiniest, tiniest majority.

    Small enough for Cameron to resign.

    TBH I kind of want remain to win, just (we're talking a few hundred votes).
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    A thriller writer couldn't have dreamed up the script we're following tonight!

    Tense.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    AndyJS said:

    Big surprise: Barking & Dagenham — Leave 62%.

    BNP in a big way.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,451
    rcs1000 said:

    MikeL said:

    Surely London not big enough?

    Although huge Remain wins.

    It's a narrow Leave victory: 52:48 or thereabouts.
    Remain now have a fractional national lead 50.6% to 49.4%
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408

    rcs1000 said:

    Thrak said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:

    EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.

    You just aren't listening to the voters, they will turn on you as an elite not clamping down on all migration. If you don't deliver this then there will be trouble.
    I am a Leaver, and have been passionate about my views. They are shared by perhaps a third of the Leave side, and include Richard_T, Max, Casino, Cyclefree and others.

    We need to come up with the solution that satisfies 70% of the population, not 51% of 51%.
    And it needs to be done and sealed bloody fast.
    Agreed.
  • Options
    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    taffys said:

    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.

    I'm just making sure Mr Meeks doesn't have the monopoly on pomposity. :)

    Seriously though, this is depressing, and it is an experiment...
    Remember the IMF and IFS reports. Consider the last twenty years. Are there any developed countries that are poorer now than then?

    I'm going to repeat 'nobody knows for sure' until I'm blue in the face. But we've had a wide range of models used to forecast Brexit; none lead to calamity.
    Does that include ones where Corbyn became PM? :)
    Lemme check ;). Still not convinced Leave have won this.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,934
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    S Bucks Leave 50.7% Remain 49.3%

    Ouch - that's not good for Leave.

    Looks like the shires won't ride to Remain's rescue. It's up to London.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    edited June 2016
    Leave 16% better off in Barking & Dagenham than forecast.
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    I feel the Tory shires may not go for Leave as expected.
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    FensterFenster Posts: 2,115
    edited June 2016
    My constituency (Caerphilly) votes Leave.

    57.6% to 42.4%
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    Pulpstar said:

    tyson said:

    Do you think the pollsters bothered to telephone anyone outside London?

    It's extraordinary isn't it - City bankers paying Oxford undergrads £250 to stand outside Primrose Fucking Hill and canvass Sean Thomas o_O ?!
    I've had to stop the wine and go onto anadin extra.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    John_M said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    taffys said:

    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.

    I'm just making sure Mr Meeks doesn't have the monopoly on pomposity. :)

    Seriously though, this is depressing, and it is an experiment...
    Remember the IMF and IFS reports. Consider the last twenty years. Are there any developed countries that are poorer now than then?

    I'm going to repeat 'nobody knows for sure' until I'm blue in the face. But we've had a wide range of models used to forecast Brexit; none lead to calamity.
    Does that include ones where Corbyn became PM? :)
    Lemme check ;). Still not convinced Leave have won this.
    Me neither!
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,738
    Osborne style punishment beating on the way.
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,240
    Brum very close, edging remain.....
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    Anyone know where the nojam is?
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2016
    lol @ leave 55-60% @ 40/1

    That looks like an evens shot to me. Maybe 2/1, to be cautious.
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    BBC Birmingham - looking very close.
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    tpfkartpfkar Posts: 1,548
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    S Bucks Leave 50.7% Remain 49.3%

    Ouch - that's not good for Leave.
    It's bordering London - I highlighted Harlow earlier as I wondered if London borders would be good for remain - mixed picture I think
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,934
    North West is going leave.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,738
    edited June 2016
    Brum very close, narrowly to remain (according to Sky)

    What happened to those predictions of 55-60 to remain.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,273
    It's not like you're looking for repeat business, is it? :D
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,702

    Barking goes LEAVE! 62%

    Redbridge will go Leave ?

    I would expect Redbridge to be remain but not hugely so, Newham similar
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    HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    rcs1000 said:

    Thrak said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:

    EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.

    You just aren't listening to the voters, they will turn on you as an elite not clamping down on all migration. If you don't deliver this then there will be trouble.
    I am a Leaver, and have been passionate about my views. They are shared by perhaps a third of the Leave side, and include Richard_T, Max, Casino, Cyclefree and others.

    We need to come up with the solution that satisfies 70% of the population, not 51% of 51%.
    Quite right, Mr. Robert. If, and as far as I am concerned it is still if, Leave wins tonight, then tomorrow is the start of the work.
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    hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591

    Brum very close, edging remain.....

    Looks better than the 55-60% remain quoted earlier
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    marke09marke09 Posts: 926

    marke09 said:

    10 areas in Wales declared all 10 leave

    Wow.
    Will Labour be blaming Plaid for that?
    Labour guy on S4C blaming the need for the referendum and its timing
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408
    Holy crap, just sold Remain as favourite on SpreadEx

    WTF
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Knowsley just split for Leave. That was 77.4% Labour.
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Mortimer said:

    Anyone know where the nojam is?

    Mortimer said:

    Anyone know where the nojam is?

    Feb 29th
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977

    Brum very close, narrowly to remain (according to Sky)

    Surely leave by 4-6 nationally if thats the case
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    surbiton said:

    I feel the Tory shires may not go for Leave as expected.

    South Bucks has just gone Leave.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,068
    Didn't Sean Thomas' anecdote ring a few alarm bells in anyone else :p ?
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    WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Thrak said:

    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.
    Yes, EEA and acces to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.
    I don't accept that. The referendum is on leaving the EU. All future options are there to be fought for.
    Well now you know what happens when voters don't believe you are listening. This was made into a referendum on immigration, so you can't now escape the consequences of that.

    I'm a voter myself. If we are leaving the EU I vote for EEA.
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,038
    SeanT said:

    I think REMAIN will win this, but by the tiniest, tiniest majority.

    Small enough for Cameron to resign.

    I think that's now out of the question. London will standalone. Look out for a very big Leave vote in Birmingham, for example.

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    AndyJS said:

    South Bucks has voted Leave narrowly. Stockbroker area.

    WOAH.

    This is the biggest 'up yours' from the electorate I've ever seen.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,451
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    S Bucks Leave 50.7% Remain 49.3%

    Ouch - that's not good for Leave.
    Yes, could be the prosperous Tory Home Counties areas help Remain scrape home if Leave total a bit lower there than some expected
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Did Sky say Birmingham is expected to be JUST remain?
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    AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Mortimer said:

    Brum very close, narrowly to remain (according to Sky)

    Surely leave by 4-6 nationally if thats the case
    Yes, Brum was supposed to be about 58% Remain.
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    ChameleonChameleon Posts: 3,934
    surbiton said:

    I feel the Tory shires may not go for Leave as expected.

    I will be really shocked if SouthOx doesn't go Remain by a decent margin.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408
    Pong said:

    lol @ leave 55-60% @ 40/1

    That looks like an evens shot to me. Maybe 2/1, to be cautious.

    No, that's about right. It's almost impossible on my models to get Leave above 54%
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    surbiton said:

    I feel the Tory shires may not go for Leave as expected.

    I think they'll be about par.
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    Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 49,757

    Barking goes LEAVE! 62%

    Redbridge will go Leave ?

    Well I did manage to vote this afternoon.

    Memo to self - must get postal vote in future :lol:
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    rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 58,925
    BF has flipped
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    Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    hunchman said:

    Brum very close, edging remain.....

    Looks better than the 55-60% remain quoted earlier
    Hanretty's model had that as 48% Remain. So a big diff of opinion on that
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408
    edited June 2016
    Remain at 55 on SpreadEx to sell

    (That's a binary index, 0 for Leave.)
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,702
    Betfair has remain back as firm favourite, very unclear on what basis punters are backing remain again?
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    surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549
    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    taffys said:

    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.

    I'm just making sure Mr Meeks doesn't have the monopoly on pomposity. :)

    Seriously though, this is depressing, and it is an experiment...
    Remember the IMF and IFS reports. Consider the last twenty years. Are there any developed countries that are poorer now than then?

    I'm going to repeat 'nobody knows for sure' until I'm blue in the face. But we've had a wide range of models used to forecast Brexit; none lead to calamity.
    Does that include ones where Corbyn became PM? :)
    Labour policy from now on has to be Anti-austerity. Enough of Blairite nonsense. The shadow cabinet can jump into the Serpentine. Otherwise, we will lose the Northern voters like we did in Central Scotland.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,675
    If Wandsworth is typical of London the capital could still swing this. Very tight.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Why is the Leave price drifting so much?
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,451
    S Lanarkshire Remain 63%
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,068
    tlg86 said:

    It's not like you're looking for repeat business, is it? :D
    I could have told them Pat the cleaner from my work was voting for less than that...
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    surbiton said:

    I feel the Tory shires may not go for Leave as expected.

    Par, it's the less wealthy areas that are bringing it home for Leave.
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    PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Just switched back to Sky - too close to call in Brum??!?!?
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    FloaterFloater Posts: 14,195
    Yep Birmingham "too close to call"
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    ArtistArtist Posts: 1,884
    Surely remain needs something more than just London seeing as its flopping just about everywhere else. We haven't heard much from the Midlands yet and maybe they can overperform in other cities I guess..
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    another_richardanother_richard Posts: 25,243

    SeanT said:

    I think REMAIN will win this, but by the tiniest, tiniest majority.

    Small enough for Cameron to resign.

    I think that's now out of the question. London will standalone. Look out for a very big Leave vote in Birmingham, for example.

    London's also very split between inner and outer.

    Huge Leave win in Barking and Greenwich reported close.

    Leave should win in Havering, Hillingdon, Bexley, Bromley and Sutton as well.
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    CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    edited June 2016
    surbiton said:

    I feel the Tory shires may not go for Leave as expected.

    Home counties will go slightly remain... but the hardcore shires (Worcestershire, Shropshire, Devon, SOMERSET, etc) will be Leave. And their populations are not small.
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    tlg86tlg86 Posts: 25,273
    weejonnie said:

    Knowsley just split for Leave. That was 77.4% Labour.

    The BBC did a piece there saying that it was the most likely place to vote Leave. In the end it did, but not by a huge amount.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,738
    Asian on Sky talking about how British Asians feel discriminated against by EU over immigration rules.
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    bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,034
    AndyJS said:

    South Bucks has voted Leave narrowly. Stockbroker area.

    Your model is Brilliant

    Thanks Andy
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    ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    rcs1000 said:

    Thrak said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:

    EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.

    You just aren't listening to the voters, they will turn on you as an elite not clamping down on all migration. If you don't deliver this then there will be trouble.
    I am a Leaver, and have been passionate about my views. They are shared by perhaps a third of the Leave side, and include Richard_T, Max, Casino, Cyclefree and others.

    We need to come up with the solution that satisfies 70% of the population, not 51% of 51%.
    So you used them then. They will come for you if they so much as get an inkling of that,
  • Options
    PongPong Posts: 4,693
    rcs1000 said:

    Holy crap, just sold Remain as favourite on SpreadEx

    WTF

    I can only assume it's traders following the running total rather than looking at the bigger picture.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    Did I just see Hyndburn drop 10% below par for Remain?
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    tlg86 said:

    HYUFD said:

    S Bucks Leave 50.7% Remain 49.3%

    Ouch - that's not good for Leave.
    No its bang on
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,451
    edited June 2016
    Gosport, Hyndburn, Pendle and Blackpool vote Leave
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,408

    SeanT said:

    I think REMAIN will win this, but by the tiniest, tiniest majority.

    Small enough for Cameron to resign.

    I think that's now out of the question. London will standalone. Look out for a very big Leave vote in Birmingham, for example.

    London's also very split between inner and outer.

    Huge Leave win in Barking and Greenwich reported close.

    Leave should win in Havering, Hillingdon, Bexley, Bromley and Sutton as well.
    I'm hearing Sutton is neck and neck.
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,052
    surbiton said:

    rcs1000 said:

    John_M said:

    taffys said:

    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.

    I'm just making sure Mr Meeks doesn't have the monopoly on pomposity. :)

    Seriously though, this is depressing, and it is an experiment...
    Remember the IMF and IFS reports. Consider the last twenty years. Are there any developed countries that are poorer now than then?

    I'm going to repeat 'nobody knows for sure' until I'm blue in the face. But we've had a wide range of models used to forecast Brexit; none lead to calamity.
    Does that include ones where Corbyn became PM? :)
    Labour policy from now on has to be Anti-austerity. Enough of Blairite nonsense. The shadow cabinet can jump into the Serpentine. Otherwise, we will lose the Northern voters like we did in Central Scotland.

    It's not anti austerity that they want. It is get rid of the migrants...that has been unleashed in this campaign.
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    MortimerMortimer Posts: 13,977
    PENDLE LEAVE!!!
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    RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    tlg86 said:

    weejonnie said:

    Knowsley just split for Leave. That was 77.4% Labour.

    The BBC did a piece there saying that it was the most likely place to vote Leave. In the end it did, but not by a huge amount.
    I told all my tenants to vote Leave...
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    MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 50,240
    Floater said:

    Did Sky say Birmingham is expected to be JUST remain?

    Yep. Knife-edge. Asians voting Leave.....
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    Pendle YORKS - 63% leave
This discussion has been closed.