Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The results so far have developed not necessarily to Remain

1246712

Comments

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,698
    CROSSOVER!

    Remain FAVOURITE again!
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,645
    UNCROSSOVER
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,752
    Did I see Exeter coming in for remain? Is that not a surprise?
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    recross
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    London is going to win it for Remain: built up massive leads there.
  • Crossover
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Glasgow Remain 67% Leave 33%
  • LowlanderLowlander Posts: 941
    This is just remarkable for so many reasons.

    https://twitter.com/lindsaylohan/status/746151164450865152
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    edited June 2016

    Re-crossover. God knows why

    'Oh look - Remain are winning again....'-itis

    I'm amazed after the places which have declared how close it is.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    How long until reverse double crossover?
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255

    Rob Ford saying London has some "heavy lifting" to do to save the day.

    That doesn't work for national cohesion, whichever way the result goes. A stronger separation of identity for London may develop, with political consequences down the line.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Falkirk:

    Remain 44,987
    Leave 34,271
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,687
    Lambeth and Exeter both better for Remain than expected
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352

    The polling company who had a 10% Remain win....well I think they are probably hot footing to the nearest airport as we speak.

    That would be the government's pollster...
  • YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.
    Yes, that's exactly right Richard.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    Crossbackover
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Falkirk Remain 57% Leave 43%
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    Thrak said:

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.
    Yes, EEA and acces to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.
    I don't accept that. The referendum is on leaving the EU. All future options are there to be fought for.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,068

    London is going to win it for Remain: built up massive leads there.

    ???????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????????? Are you sure ?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    After all this, it's going to be Remain 50.1% isn't it? :D
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016

    London is going to win it for Remain: built up massive leads there.

    There are more votes in the Midlands, south west, south east, East Anglia than London.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    rcs1000 said:

    Scott_P said:

    @graemewearden: Futures market predicting a massive selloff -- FTSE 100 being called down 6% https://t.co/QhtxxuhyCk

    More interesting will be FTSE 250, as FTSE 100 is full of companies with international earnings that do better in the case of Brexit. We own Wolsely, for example, which is a big US Dollar earner.
    Might be some buying opportunities amidst the general sell-off. High risk, though.
  • SpeedySpeedy Posts: 12,100
    edited June 2016
    As for the betting markets and the stockmarkets they were linked with little input from the outside. If the pound went up the Remain odds went up and vise versa, I think someone in the city used some software to link the two markets.

    Now I'm off again.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Falkirk slightly better for LEAVE
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,116
    Fuck


    Sorry not to not be more eloquent, but that sums up everything
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,023
    The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:

    EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Just wait until the BULK (and it is a bulk) of the English shires declare in a couple of hours time.
  • PongPong Posts: 4,693
    edited June 2016
    DavidL said:

    Did I see Exeter coming in for remain? Is that not a surprise?

    Exeter is the exception that proves the rule for the SW
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542
    DavidL said:

    Did I see Exeter coming in for remain? Is that not a surprise?

    Lots of ABs and students in Exeter so was expected.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,116
    Cross back back....get in
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,460
    edited June 2016
    taffys said:


    Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.

    I'm just making sure Mr Meeks doesn't have the monopoly on pomposity. :)

    Seriously though, this is depressing, and it is an experiment...
  • Glasgow caused the crossover back
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,023
    RobD said:
    Nothing. We won't end up at parity.
  • Wandsworth very good for remain
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    ?Newport for Leave - did I see that right?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Wandsworth Remain 75% Leave 25%
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Wandsworth Remain's best result...
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    Wandsworth 75% Remain, par was 73% on my figures, though not others.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    My Laptop has died, can someone please give the link to the par spreadsheet again? TIA.
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Does anyone have the faintest clue what Jeremy Vine's noise graph represents?
  • TheuniondivvieTheuniondivvie Posts: 41,886
    That would be a real tribute to the blessed Margaret.
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    Pong said:

    DavidL said:

    Did I see Exeter coming in for remain? Is that not a surprise?

    Exeter is the exception that proves the rule for the SW
    At the general election is was a red dot in an ocean of blue that is the South West.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Stevenage and Tamworth vote Out
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Wanderer said:

    Thrak said:

    I'm afraid they have to. Cameron, Osborne and co are finished and need to go asap.

    Agreed, but I think we'll get a political vacuum for quite a while. Not only will it be a vacuum in terms of personalities, even more seriously there will be a vacuum in terms of policy, because no homework was done and the Leave campaign jumped on any passing populist bandwagon. The only 100% clear thing about the outcome is that it's a vote against free movement of people. So that rules out the EEA option.
    Yes, EEA and acces to the single market are dead. The emergency measures taken need to be based on that.
    I don't accept that. The referendum is on leaving the EU. All future options are there to be fought for.
    Quite. The opinions of Remain voters can't be ignored just because they lost. A significant restriction on free movement is still a minority in the country, regardless of the motivations of WWC voters
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    Oddly Betfair has just crossed back again
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    Its going to be like like year....London better than expected, rest of the country a surprise...but how will that pan out.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,146
    Burnley 66% Leave.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Mortimer said:

    Re-crossover. God knows why

    'Oh look - Remain are winning again....'-itis

    I'm amazed after the places which have declared how close it is.
    Glasgow was big - not sure whether big Enough - and Lambeth looked very good.

    Of course it could be a drowning man clutching at any straw.
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Big win for leave in Stevenage. Sign for the East of England..
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542
    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:

    EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.

    Get in touch with Boris immediately.
  • WandererWanderer Posts: 3,838
    God, it seems an eternity since that 1990s Ashes joke.
  • taffystaffys Posts: 9,753
    Wandworth MASSIVE for remain
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,068
    Pong said:

    DavidL said:

    Did I see Exeter coming in for remain? Is that not a surprise?

    Exeter is the exception that proves the rule for the SW
    Surely Exeter shd be better for remain than 55% ?
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786
    edited June 2016
    HYUFD said:

    Stevenage and Tamworth vote Out

    Tamworth often a bell weather town in GEs.
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,116
    I tell you I'm glad I'm all cashed out on this....I couldn't cope
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114

    Just wait until the BULK (and it is a bulk) of the English shires declare in a couple of hours time.

    I'm hopeful - but we've heard from the more marginal/poorer southern areas so far.
  • Danny565Danny565 Posts: 8,091
    edited June 2016
    Artist said:

    Big win for leave in Stevenage. Sign for the East of England..

    I think virtually all of the "Middle England" swing areas have gone heavily Leave.

    EDIT: That said, Wandsworth is a swing area I guess.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,023
    Does anyone remember my forecast the other day?

    I said Sunderland 62%... and then that Remain would come back strongly in London. At 6am, there'd be six LAs still to declare and all to play for :)
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,458
    I'm going to move to Wandsworth
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Wandsworth 75% Remain.

    Bloody hell.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Stonking turnouts for Leave required in midlands please
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Bracknell Leave 54% Remain 46%
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    edited June 2016

    taffys said:

    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.

    I'm just making sure Mr Meeks doesn't have the monopoly on pomposity. :)

    Seriously though, this is depressing, and it is an experiment...
    Remember the IMF and IFS reports. Consider the last twenty years. Are there any developed countries that are poorer now than then?

    I'm going to repeat 'nobody knows for sure' until I'm blue in the face. But we've had a wide range of models used to forecast Brexit; none lead to calamity.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,698
    Surely London not big enough?

    Although huge Remain wins.
  • CookieCookie Posts: 13,687
    Right: I'm calling it as an exact tie and going back to bed. See you all in a couple of hours.
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    Sterling up to 1.44 - got some big remain areas out of the way though.
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,114
    Tamworth and Burnley AWFUL for Remain.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,630
    If that's the Lambeth result I reckon Camden could be the top Remain area in the UK.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,023
    taffys said:

    Wandworth MASSIVE for remain

    London is going to be massive for Remain. The splits in our country are enormous. We need to make sure that whoever takes over from Cameron/Osborne is a healer, not a divider.
  • London going to rescue this for remain......
  • ThrakThrak Posts: 494
    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:

    EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.

    You just aren't listening to the voters, they will turn on you as an elite not clamping down on all migration. If you don't deliver this then there will be trouble.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Torbay and Caerphilly vote Leave
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835
    Trouble with BBC's over fussy graphic is that they have spent a lot of effort putting the areas in the order they think they will be, but seem unable to put the actual result in context in terms of where it actually is on their scale
  • surbitonsurbiton Posts: 13,549

    Wandsworth 75% Remain.

    Bloody hell.

    Tooting !!!!!!!!!!!
  • CornishBlueCornishBlue Posts: 840
    MikeL said:

    Surely London not big enough?

    Although huge Remain wins.

    Inner London will be big for Remain... but the Outer boroughs... we will see...
  • RobDRobD Posts: 59,897
    Might need a massive gin in a bit.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,917
    Wrexham 59% Leave
  • hunchmanhunchman Posts: 2,591
    HYUFD said:

    Bracknell Leave 54% Remain 46%

    Pretty good for leave that I think.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    Wandsworth slightly better for remain.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Wrexham and Caerphilly vote Leave
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 51,460
    John_M said:

    taffys said:

    Britain has chosen to be the lab rat in a giant experiment, breaking with the course of Western history since WW2, and the people leading the charge seemingly have no idea of what is at stake.

    Now come on sir. Look at that comment, and think how patronising it might sound. You do not have a monopoly on geopolitical analysis.

    I'm just making sure Mr Meeks doesn't have the monopoly on pomposity. :)

    Seriously though, this is depressing, and it is an experiment...
    Remember the IMF and IFS reports. Consider the last twenty years. Are there any developed countries that are poorer now than then?

    I'm going to repeat 'nobody knows for sure' until I'm blew in the face. But we've had a wide range of models used to forecast Brexit; none lead to calamity.
    They all assume that politics carries on pretty much as normal. I don't think that's possible.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited June 2016
    I think it depends on places like Southampton, Milton Keynes, Bedford, Reading, etc.
  • Tissue_PriceTissue_Price Posts: 9,039
    I can only imagine Betfair thinks London is half of England
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 49,835

    I'm going to move to Wandsworth

    Lets all move to Gibraltar? Worst case it ends up in Spain...
  • another_richardanother_richard Posts: 26,542
    Was that 67% Leave in Burnley ?

    Andy had it at 55% Leave.

    Big Muslim population there as well.

    Wonder if Oldham, Rochdale, Bradford etc will follow that pattern ?
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Barking votes Leave 62% Remain 38%
  • marke09marke09 Posts: 926
    10 areas in Wales declared all 10 leave
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 81,786

    Wrexham 59% Leave

    Wales do realise it isn't a vote to leave the UK right?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Surely the betfair market should be quite accurate by now? We must have enough results for the statistical models to start making reasonably accurate projections? Which means it's still going to be very close?
  • 62% for leave in Barking. Excellent result.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 57,023
    Thrak said:

    rcs1000 said:

    The problem with this whole debate has been that it has been about 51%, not 70%. There is a solution that would garner the support of 70% of the British people, and result in minimal economic impact from leaving:

    EFTA/EEA, with compulsory health insurance for migrants. Just a small sum of - say - 2k/year would eliminate almost all non-skilled migration.

    You just aren't listening to the voters, they will turn on you as an elite not clamping down on all migration. If you don't deliver this then there will be trouble.
    I am a Leaver, and have been passionate about my views. They are shared by perhaps a third of the Leave side, and include Richard_T, Max, Casino, Cyclefree and others.

    We need to come up with the solution that satisfies 70% of the population, not 51% of 51%.
  • DanSmithDanSmith Posts: 1,215
    Wow that's a good result for Leave in Barking & Dagenham
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,116
    Do you think the pollsters bothered to telephone anyone outside London?
  • PlatoSaidPlatoSaid Posts: 10,383
    Knowsley Leave
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 122,611
    Knowsley 52% Remain 48% Leave
This discussion has been closed.