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SystemSystem Posts: 12,685
edited June 2016 in General

imagepoliticalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Use this specially designed referendum widget to follow events as they unfold

Thanks to Roberto Robles, Global Counsel (@robertoroblesf) for this.

Read the full story here


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Comments

  • asjohnstoneasjohnstone Posts: 1,276
    Looks nice
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,936
    edited June 2016
    2nd like Remain?
    Useful widget, thanks to Roberto Robles for providing :)
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 61,437
    FPT:
    FrancisUrquhart said:

    rcs1000 said:

    @El_Dave - I was about to send you a personal email but just realised you're using a mailinator email. We have a rule that people need to use genuine email addresses (and since we got hit by Putin trolls a few years ago, I've cracked down on Tor too). Please change your email address,

    Thanks

    A few years ago? I thought we still have a few of putins little helpers these days for comic value.
    I think Putinlover1983 is genuine but deluded.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    just been down the pub

    returns officer saying busiest he's seen it, neighboring village also high turnout
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Gibraltar and the Isles of Scilly ready for their moment of nationwide excitement and fame.
  • ChameleonChameleon Posts: 4,267
    I'm going to go to bed. I'll see you all around 3ish. I suspect that either it'll be a slight leave win, or remain will walk home and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about.
  • VerulamiusVerulamius Posts: 1,555
    We are about to enter a quantum state - where the UK is both leave and remain at the same time. When the ballot box is opened the wave function will collapse with one result.

    But where is the cat?
  • LondonLondon Posts: 40
    Just back from Remain GOTV in Lewisham. Unsurprisingly very positive for Remain. Turnout will be high.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,344
    And finally the sun comes out in West London. Polling station was deserted when I made my way through the rain an hour or so ago.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Chameleon said:

    I'm going to go to bed. I'll see you all around 3ish. I suspect that either it'll be a slight leave win, or remain will walk home and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about.

    I suspect you might be right.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Alanbrooke said:

    just been down the pub

    returns officer saying busiest he's seen it, neighboring village also high turnout

    Probably is. Anything above last May would be the biggest turnout since 1997. I think it'll be touch and go as to whether it beats that 71.3%. If it's more than 72.3% then it'll be the most votes cast in any UK poll, passing the 1992 GE.
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    FPT
    peter_from_putney said:

    not_on_fire said:

    peter_from_putney said:

    Here in SW London, we've had very little significant rain over the past 12 hours, just a number of bouts of persistent drizzle, but it's been a thoroughly dull, dank, cold, miserable day.
    Unless you were particularly exercised by the prospect of voting in the referendum, I can't imagine anything close to record numbers bothering to travel any sort of distance by foot in order to vote. Fortunately, I arranged a postal vote.

    Interesting...the weather must be very localised. Here in Chessington just a few miles away we had a torrential downpour last night and another one this afternoon.
    Yes, we certainly got it last night all right, like you.
    You must live in a particularly unique bit of Putney. Only five minutes away in Wandsworth there have been two or three biblical downpours!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Verulamius said:

    We are about to enter a quantum state - where the UK is both leave and remain at the same time. When the ballot box is opened the wave function will collapse with one result.

    But where is the cat?

    with plato.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    http://nos.nl/artikel/2113112-laverend-door-londen-zien-we-stugheid-bezorgdheid-en-ergernis.html Heh
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    Very flash!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    Wow Gib first. That's going to excite some remainers!
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,936
    Verulamius said:


    But where is the cat?

    Its in the box. But don't look, you might kill it!
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    edited June 2016
    Work colleague in the US has emailed to say the ref's getting a lot of coverage over there - blessedly pushing Trump/Clinton/Isis/guns off their headlines for a bit.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    Alanbrooke said:

    just been down the pub

    returns officer saying busiest he's seen it, neighboring village also high turnout

    What's he doing at the pub? :D
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Just back after finally deciding to go for leave. Literally decided while stood in the queue at the polling station. Which, incidentally, is the first time I have ever had to queue.

    Doing brisk business as I left too
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    Nice to see Mandelson's mob contributing some useful election widgets. :)
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    RobD said:

    Very flash!

    We're in the 21st century now, boys!
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    Ugh, my declaration's not expected until 0430, I'm worried it will be a lot longer than that though - even though it's a simpler choice and so easier to count, it took almost that long to do the PCC election.
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 26,052
    RobD said:

    Alanbrooke said:

    just been down the pub

    returns officer saying busiest he's seen it, neighboring village also high turnout

    What's he doing at the pub? :D
    we set our priorities correctly in Warwickshire :-)
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    kle4 said:

    Ugh, my declaration's not expected until 0430, I'm worried it will be a lot longer than that though - even though it's a simpler choice and so easier to count, it took almost that long to do the PCC election.

    00:45 :D Almost as good as Gib, but not quite.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Ugh, my declaration's not expected until 0430, I'm worried it will be a lot longer than that though - even though it's a simpler choice and so easier to count, it took almost that long to do the PCC election.

    00:45 :D Almost as good as Gib, but not quite.
    You Swindon types make me sick!
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    I
    saddened said:

    Just back after finally deciding to go for leave. Literally decided while stood in the queue at the polling station. Which, incidentally, is the first time I have ever had to queue.

    Doing brisk business as I left too

    That's interesting. What made you vote Leave in the end?
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Ugh, my declaration's not expected until 0430, I'm worried it will be a lot longer than that though - even though it's a simpler choice and so easier to count, it took almost that long to do the PCC election.

    00:45 :D Almost as good as Gib, but not quite.
    You Swindon types make me sick!
    That, or City of London :p
  • StarfallStarfall Posts: 78
    Why are selfies in the voting booth such a danger to the secret ballot, when we have postal votes and proxy votes on demand?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Ugh, my declaration's not expected until 0430, I'm worried it will be a lot longer than that though - even though it's a simpler choice and so easier to count, it took almost that long to do the PCC election.

    00:45 :D Almost as good as Gib, but not quite.
    You Swindon types make me sick!
    That, or City of London :p
    Little better.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 39,543
    I'm a counting agent tonight. That's far better for my state of mind than feverishly refreshing my IPad..
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,451
    I would be somewhat wary of these reports of record turnout. We saw exactly the same stories being posted on the day of the 2015 GE and turnout ended up being only slightly up on 2010.
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Mid Sussex is supposed to be between 3 and 4. Apparently it may be delayed due to unusually high turnout. Probably not wannabe Yuppie students if young.
  • RogerRoger Posts: 21,076
    I've just got my 5th voter for Remain and I haven't even tried!

    First my daughter and boyfriend who were grateful that I'd saved them the bother of thinking.

    Then two waitresses at a coffee bar about a month ago. "What do you reckon?" "Well I'm voting Remain". Ok. We'll do the same...

    .And finally walking along the road ten minutes ago a district nurse who was getting into her car who I didn't know asked me if I've voted. I said 'yes Remain'. She said it was so difficult to decide and she didn't know anything about it. I said If you don't want Boris as PM vote Remain. She said she didn't like him at all. I said you better be quick then....

    If Remain win Dave should make me Party Chairman.....
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    Roger said:

    I've just got my 5th voter for Remain and I haven't even tried!

    First my daughter and boyfriend who were grateful that I'd saved them the bother of thinking.

    Then two waitresses at a coffee bar about a month ago. "What do you reckon?" "Well I'm voting Remain". Ok. We'll do the same...

    .And finally walking along the road ten minutes ago a district nurse who was getting into her car who I didn't know asked me if I've voted. I said 'yes Remain'. She said it was so difficult to decide and she didn't know anything about it. I said If you don't want Boris as PM vote Remain. She said she didn't like him at all. I said you better be quick then....

    If Remain win Dave should make me Party Chairman.....

    You should go canvassing at elections Roge, I'm sure you'd be a massive asset....

    ...For the Tories
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    not_on_fire said:

    I would be somewhat wary of these reports of record turnout. We saw exactly the same stories being posted on the day of the 2015 GE and turnout ended up being only slightly up on 2010.

    Judging by Essex an hour ago turnout will certainly not be record, mid 60s is more likely, reasonable but not vast, the rain has probably put a couple off
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    RobD said:

    kle4 said:

    Ugh, my declaration's not expected until 0430, I'm worried it will be a lot longer than that though - even though it's a simpler choice and so easier to count, it took almost that long to do the PCC election.

    00:45 :D Almost as good as Gib, but not quite.
    You Swindon types make me sick!
    That, or City of London :p
    Little better.
    I'd be living in a cardboard box if I were there....
  • eekeek Posts: 31,304
    Starfall said:

    Why are selfies in the voting booth such a danger to the secret ballot, when we have postal votes and proxy votes on demand?

    Win 1 of 1000 £1000 prizes. to enter just send a selfie of your vote for leave to .....
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    Chameleon said:

    I'm going to go to bed. I'll see you all around 3ish. I suspect that either it'll be a slight leave win, or remain will walk home and we'll wonder what all the fuss was about.

    I think it will be a slight Remain win but we shall see
  • MortimerMortimer Posts: 14,341
    Late from the previous thread, but the song lyrics that trouble me are 'I'm on fire'
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Voted. Busy, but no queues is rural West Sussex.
  • saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245
    Sean_F said:

    I

    saddened said:

    Just back after finally deciding to go for leave. Literally decided while stood in the queue at the polling station. Which, incidentally, is the first time I have ever had to queue.

    Doing brisk business as I left too

    That's interesting. What made you vote Leave in the end?
    I was dithering all day, but I think what actually tipped the balance was juncker essentially saying that's your lot, no more concessions.
  • booksellerbookseller Posts: 508
    RobD said:

    Wow Gib first. That's going to excite some remainers!

    You might be surprised!
  • nunununu Posts: 6,024
    Sean_F said:

    I'm a counting agent tonight. That's far better for my state of mind than feverishly refreshing my IPad..

    it would be a shame if u miss counted remain as leave whoops! (remember no recounts so u won't get caught shhhhhhhh).
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,914
    Roger said:

    I've just got my 5th voter for Remain and I haven't even tried!

    First my daughter and boyfriend who were grateful that I'd saved them the bother of thinking.

    Then two waitresses at a coffee bar about a month ago. "What do you reckon?" "Well I'm voting Remain". Ok. We'll do the same...

    .And finally walking along the road ten minutes ago a district nurse who was getting into her car who I didn't know asked me if I've voted. I said 'yes Remain'. She said it was so difficult to decide and she didn't know anything about it. I said If you don't want Boris as PM vote Remain. She said she didn't like him at all. I said you better be quick then....

    If Remain win Dave should make me Party Chairman.....

    "IT'S ROG WOT WON IT"
  • FregglesFreggles Posts: 3,487
    So if the BES is on track it's 55% remain, yeah?
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    Anecdotal. Partner just been to vote in Walthamstow. Queues - unheard of - and the sheet plastered with pencil marks but wouldn't commit to a percentage. Not raining right now.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,855
    edited June 2016
    FPT:
    The leavers with their "pens" seem to have caught the notion from Scottish Nationalist conspiraloons:

    https://www.sundaypost.com/news/political-news/yes-voters-say-poll-may-be-nobbled/
    https://www.facebook.com/IndependentScot/photos/pb.181452502007292.-2207520000.1408820108./367892956696578/?type=3&theater

    Wonder if they are doing Yogic Flying as well.
  • shiney2shiney2 Posts: 672
    Sean_F said:

    I'm a counting agent tonight. That's far better for my state of mind than feverishly refreshing my IPad..

    Same here. I find a view the size of the respective voting paper stacks helps to more easily manage the Hope prior to the result..
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

    ah I remember the 2015 elections. The moment that exit poll came out was glorious!
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 40,054
    Managed to get on 19.47, which ended up leaving at 8.07. Now it's a race against time. Currently not moving somewhere just outside High Wycombe.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    Jonathan said:

    Voted. Busy, but no queues is rural West Sussex.

    What did you do?
  • Wulfrun_PhilWulfrun_Phil Posts: 4,784
    I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
    "We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

    So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

    I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 99,391
    MattW said:

    FPT:
    The leavers with their "pens" seem to have caught the notion from Scottish Nationalist conspiraloons:

    https://www.sundaypost.com/news/political-news/yes-voters-say-poll-may-be-nobbled/
    https://www.facebook.com/IndependentScot/photos/pb.181452502007292.-2207520000.1408820108./367892956696578/?type=3&theater

    Wonder if they are doing Yogic Flying as well.

    The Natural Law party were euroskeptic according to one of their PPBs linked on here awhile back.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,855
    edited June 2016
    BTW
    My North Notts ex-UDM area Polling Station reported a much increased turnout over the GE at mid-morning.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,936
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

    The calm before the storm.

    Speaking of which, time to rest the eyes for a few hours. See you all back here at about 2am UK time, hope it's not all over by then!
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    RobD said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

    ah I remember the 2015 elections. The moment that exit poll came out was glorious!
    Yep. The PB crowd went wild. I stayed up all night. Bliss was it in that dawn to be alive, But to be young was very heaven!
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    SouthamObserver said:

    Managed to get on 19.47, which ended up leaving at 8.07. Now it's a race against time. Currently not moving somewhere just outside High Wycombe.

    Casually switching between 12 and 24 hour, or was there really a 13 hour delay? :p

    Any chance of you getting back in time to vote? Must be really frustrating :(
  • tysontyson Posts: 6,123
    Sean_F said:

    I'm a counting agent tonight. That's far better for my state of mind than feverishly refreshing my IPad..

    I'm watching some old Horizons on Iplayer. Fascinating stuff about before the Big Bang. It is quite mind blowing to think that all the matter that is inside me, Sean Fear, Nigel Farage, Roger, Jack, Boris and Dave and Junker and the other 6 billion or so people, and the universe started from a very small point.
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

    Like the rain.
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    SouthamObserver said:

    Managed to get on 19.47, which ended up leaving at 8.07. Now it's a race against time. Currently not moving somewhere just outside High Wycombe.

    Best of luck Southam.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    edited June 2016
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
    "We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

    So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

    I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

    Comres' final poll included figures adjusted for turnout, I also see no evidence of a vast turnout, it will probably be around general election levels, maybe a little lower because of the weather, perhaps a fraction higher
  • BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
    "We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

    So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

    I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

    We are about to find out. Money markets and Betfair seeing no unusual moves.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 29,855
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:
    The leavers with their "pens" seem to have caught the notion from Scottish Nationalist conspiraloons:

    https://www.sundaypost.com/news/political-news/yes-voters-say-poll-may-be-nobbled/
    https://www.facebook.com/IndependentScot/photos/pb.181452502007292.-2207520000.1408820108./367892956696578/?type=3&theater

    Wonder if they are doing Yogic Flying as well.

    The Natural Law party were euroskeptic according to one of their PPBs linked on here awhile back.
    And they all had immaculate showman mustachios iirc.

    Presumably if all the Yogic Flying was in Scotland it would tip back the geological dipping of the South-East following the last Ice Age !
  • john_zimsjohn_zims Posts: 3,399
    @Roger

    'I've just got my 5th voter for Remain and I haven't even tried!

    First my daughter and boyfriend who were grateful that I'd saved them the bother of thinking.

    Then two waitresses at a coffee bar about a month ago. "What do you reckon?" "Well I'm voting Remain". Ok. We'll do the same...

    .And finally walking along the road ten minutes ago a district nurse who was getting into her car who I didn't know asked me if I've voted. I said 'yes Remain'. She said it was so difficult to decide and she didn't know anything about it. I said If you don't want Boris as PM vote Remain. She said she didn't like him at all. I said you better be quick then....

    If Remain win Dave should make me Party Chairman..... '


    What about you hairdresser and taxi driver you usually manage to convert them or maybe they just want a decent tip ?

  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
    "We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

    So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

    I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

    Good spot.

    My chances of collecting £120 plus my stake back look good when you add that nugget to Rochdales and TSEs gloom about high Lab core turnouts in the Northwest.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 80,114
    bookseller said:

    RobD said:

    Wow Gib first. That's going to excite some remainers!

    You might be surprised!
    Yea right. Yuge remain.
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 33,584
    tyson said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm a counting agent tonight. That's far better for my state of mind than feverishly refreshing my IPad..

    I'm watching some old Horizons on Iplayer. Fascinating stuff about before the Big Bang. It is quite mind blowing to think that all the matter that is inside me, Sean Fear, Nigel Farage, Roger, Jack, Boris and Dave and Junker and the other 6 billion or so people, and the universe started from a very small point.
    Just south of Newport Pagnell in fact :-)
  • StarfallStarfall Posts: 78
    edited June 2016
    Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Mortimer said:

    Roger said:

    I've just got my 5th voter for Remain and I haven't even tried!

    First my daughter and boyfriend who were grateful that I'd saved them the bother of thinking.

    Then two waitresses at a coffee bar about a month ago. "What do you reckon?" "Well I'm voting Remain". Ok. We'll do the same...

    .And finally walking along the road ten minutes ago a district nurse who was getting into her car who I didn't know asked me if I've voted. I said 'yes Remain'. She said it was so difficult to decide and she didn't know anything about it. I said If you don't want Boris as PM vote Remain. She said she didn't like him at all. I said you better be quick then....

    If Remain win Dave should make me Party Chairman.....

    You should go canvassing at elections Roge, I'm sure you'd be a massive asset....

    ...For the Tories
    In the interest of balance i persuaded 4 youngsters to vote leave today . All my sons friends one of whom even had a remain badge on!!
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 64,196
    I thought Robert's post on the last thread was interesting.

    We are perhaps overly influenced by the sequence of the poll release, with Populus poll today and ComRes phone polls last night, which had clear Remain leads, but yougov/ipsos-mori/opinium had it much closer. And have they all been weighted correctly?

    If not, and a lot of non-traditional voters are turning out, that have been downweighted, this could be closer than we think.

    Anyway, I've topped on Leave at 7.2 on Betfair.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    RobD said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

    ah I remember the 2015 elections. The moment that exit poll came out was glorious!
    Was a shock.

    I wish that exit poll had said Labour Largest Party now to be honest.
  • SandpitSandpit Posts: 56,936
    SouthamObserver said:

    Managed to get on 19.47, which ended up leaving at 8.07. Now it's a race against time. Currently not moving somewhere just outside High Wycombe.

    Good luck getting back!
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 56,314
    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:
    The leavers with their "pens" seem to have caught the notion from Scottish Nationalist conspiraloons:

    https://www.sundaypost.com/news/political-news/yes-voters-say-poll-may-be-nobbled/
    https://www.facebook.com/IndependentScot/photos/pb.181452502007292.-2207520000.1408820108./367892956696578/?type=3&theater

    Wonder if they are doing Yogic Flying as well.

    The Natural Law party were euroskeptic according to one of their PPBs linked on here awhile back.
    This campaign has been more about phobic lying than yogic flying.
  • scotslassscotslass Posts: 912
    Scottish turnout est 70 per cent + on basis of my Aberdeen polling station which usually polls around Scottish average.

    Has anyone got the Curtice list of districts if it was a 50-50 split. That would ore useful than the above map which believes that Remain will win the Western Isles. We won't.

    If you have a link to Curtice please post.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

    ah I remember the 2015 elections. The moment that exit poll came out was glorious!
    Was a shock.

    I wish that exit poll had said Labour Largest Party now to be honest.
    You're a sick man.. a sick, sick man :o

    :p
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    Starfall said:

    Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

    It's all in the lap of the Gods now. Que sera sera etc.
  • timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    Starfall said:

    Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

    No mainly people with city banking or insurance jobs who have big houses and have most to lose in their eyes. So therefore on balance remain brigade.
  • Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
    "We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

    So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

    I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

    Comres' final poll included figures adjusted for turnout, I also see no evidence of a vast turnout, it will probably be around general election levels, maybe a little lower because of the weather, perhaps a fraction higher
    It may be the same but if there are far more wwc and far less of some other lot then remain are in trouble
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    Starfall said:

    Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

    Many will be ABC1 Remainers but they should still get back by the time the polls close
  • brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    Starfall said:

    Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

    No, there's a reason the Remainers have been targetting London commuter towns.
  • KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,927
    timmo said:

    Starfall said:

    Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

    No mainly people with city banking or insurance jobs who have big houses and have most to lose in their eyes. So therefore on balance remain brigade.
    Yep, London commuters will largely be Remain. The further south and east you get in Kent, away from London, the more UKIP/Leave it is.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
    "We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

    So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

    I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

    Comres' final poll included figures adjusted for turnout, I also see no evidence of a vast turnout, it will probably be around general election levels, maybe a little lower because of the weather, perhaps a fraction higher
    Talk about covering your bases.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,516
    SouthamObserver said:

    Managed to get on 19.47, which ended up leaving at 8.07. Now it's a race against time. Currently not moving somewhere just outside High Wycombe.

    FWIW I hope you make it back home in time to vote.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,810
    edited June 2016
    Betfair edging further to Remain in last 15 mins.

    Leave now 7.8 (from 7.4 about 15 mins ago).

    Presumably some people must now have info from private polls?
  • alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    timmo said:

    Starfall said:

    Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

    No mainly people with city banking or insurance jobs who have big houses and have most to lose in their eyes. So therefore on balance remain brigade.
    All they have to do is ring home and get the butler to vote for them!
  • mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    £ rising 1.4830
    Betfair has remain at 87%
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    edited June 2016
    KentRising said:

    timmo said:

    Starfall said:

    Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

    No mainly people with city banking or insurance jobs who have big houses and have most to lose in their eyes. So therefore on balance remain brigade.
    Yep, London commuters will largely be Remain. The further south and east you get in Kent, away from London, the more UKIP/Leave it is.
    Yes but most of those Remain commuters live in Surrey, Buckinghamshire, or West Kent not the Kent coast, so less than an hour from central London thus even delays will not prevent them voting by 10pm unless they only left the office at 9pm in which case they may have voted first thing in the morning anyway. Commuters to Dover, Thanet, Folkestone etc which is a longer journey but cheaper property are more likely to be for Leave
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    Gibraltar must be readying itself for its greatest moment of national adulation and excitement since John Lennon briefly touched there down to get married to Yoko Ohno in 1969, before looking a bit bored. For the Scilly Isles, the sky must be the limit.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,949
    edited June 2016
    RobD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    RobD said:

    Paul_Bedfordshire said:

    Posts seemed to have suddenly died down after a long while where they were coming in faster than I could read them

    ah I remember the 2015 elections. The moment that exit poll came out was glorious!
    Was a shock.

    I wish that exit poll had said Labour Largest Party now to be honest.
    You're a sick man.. a sick, sick man :o

    :p
    If Ed Miliband had won the 2015 general election we wouldn't be having a referendum and locking ourselves forever into a European Superstate.

    A Labour win last year would have been far, far better than where we are now. Funny how things work out.

    Still, you live and learn, Jezza for me next time.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 11,947
    john_zims said:

    that I'd saved them the bother of thinking.

    Probably best that you do less of that.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,715
    RealBritain said:

    Gibraltar must be readying itself for its greatest moment of national adulation and excitement since John Lennon briefly touched there down to get married to Yoko Ohno in 1969, before looking a bit bored. For the Scilly Isles, the sky must be the limit.

    Wonder which lucky BBC correspondent got the gig?
  • glwglw Posts: 10,516
    Casino_Royale said:

    If not, and a lot of non-traditional voters are turning out, that have been downweighted, this could be closer than we think.

    That's my last grasp of hope that there has been a massive weighting cock-up.
  • weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    MikeL said:

    Betfair edging further to Remain in last 15 mins.

    Leave now 7.8 (from 7.4 about 15 mins ago).

    Well off wanting some fun after they've had their dinner. The pound-dollar and pound-euro would be a better indication IMHO if there's private polling going on.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 18,361
    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
    "We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

    So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

    I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

    Though it also assumes that the 18-40 turnout will be low, which may well be equally untrue.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 130,285
    weejonnie said:

    HYUFD said:

    Wulfrun_Phil said:

    I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
    "We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

    So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

    I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

    Comres' final poll included figures adjusted for turnout, I also see no evidence of a vast turnout, it will probably be around general election levels, maybe a little lower because of the weather, perhaps a fraction higher
    Talk about covering your bases.
    It is certainly not going to be at indyref levels put it that way
  • Hertsmere_PubgoerHertsmere_Pubgoer Posts: 3,476
    Casino_Royale said:

    I thought Robert's post on the last thread was interesting.

    We are perhaps overly influenced by the sequence of the poll release, with Populus poll today and ComRes phone polls last night, which had clear Remain leads, but yougov/ipsos-mori/opinium had it much closer. And have they all been weighted correctly?

    If not, and a lot of non-traditional voters are turning out, that have been downweighted, this could be closer than we think.

    Anyway, I've topped on Leave at 7.2 on Betfair.

    I've had an extra slice of Brexit at those odds too.
  • BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 9,359
    KentRising said:

    Work colleague in the US has emailed to say the ref's getting a lot of coverage over there - blessedly pushing Trump/Clinton/Isis/guns off their headlines for a bit.

    I'm also getting questions from the US. Can Cameron order a rerun because of the rain? Is it an electoral college or is every vote the same weight?
  • RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    RobD said:

    RealBritain said:

    Gibraltar must be readying itself for its greatest moment of national adulation and excitement since John Lennon briefly touched there down to get married to Yoko Ohno in 1969, before looking a bit bored. For the Scilly Isles, the sky must be the limit.

    Wonder which lucky BBC correspondent got the gig?
    Surely Justin Rowlatt.
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