It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
Very quick as outside a polling station. This wwc had turnout in 30s in 2015 now we are past 69% and still they come. Driffield reports 88% turnout an hour ago. These are Leave heartlands. If and it's a big if this holds provincial England is voting in massive numbers.
Anyway back to gotv!
Those numbers are almost unbelievable when you think postal votes are on top.
I have cleaned toilets for a living in Crawley, grown up in South London, spent several years in Salford. (lancs) and now commute from rural Bedfordshire to within not much more than a stonesthrow from HM Palace and Fortress The Tower Of London and spend a good portion of time in south Somerset.
London lives in a bubble and many know less about their fellow countrymen than they do about our history.
There are people in London you know. I have spent time cleaning toilets too. I worked for McDonalds. I've spent time working in loading bays where there was nothing to do for hours in end. I've spent time working for the Department of Health where I was advised to be sick more often.
Londoners are much like you - we've had the great fortune of making some money if we were lucky by virtue of a property boom, but that's a double edged sword in that we can't ever imagine living in the areas that feel to us like home.
Happily I've done reasonably well in life and I'd certainly be regarded as well off. In London though it counts for nothing.
What does count for something though is that I as a Londoner regard my country as my home. If you wish to tell me otherwise then that would be rather disappointing.
Should I Leave the beer in the fridge or should the wine Remain unopened?
That is the question vexing me at present.
Could the PB glitterati give some advice?
I've just been to Morrisons for my results night marathon nibbles and light buffet. As an added psychic two fingers I bought some items from the tiny " East European " section for the first time. It's arrival caused much muttering last year.
Good point. They do a nice cold Tyskie in our Co-op...
Oh god no. Plenty of nice stuff from Poland, that gut rot is not one of them.
Just doing a little light trolling. Tyskie is a bit insipid but ice cold in Alex after a hot sticky day, and no work tommorow morning...
By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.
Btw - What are "eyeball samples"? Is that a new fancy name for an exit poll?
No way many commuters in Folkestone and Dover were expecting to vote after work: these guys get home late and likely would have voted in the morning before catching their train or voted by post.
They're still Remain btw. Generally, Leave is strongest among those who don't work/visit/live in proximity to London.
If you leave work in London at 6pm you will easily get to Folkestone or Dover by 8pm but builders from that area etc could be doing construction work in London and get back late and they may well vote Leave
Very quick as outside a polling station. This wwc had turnout in 30s in 2015 now we are past 69% and still they come. Driffield reports 88% turnout an hour ago. These are Leave heartlands. If and it's a big if this holds provincial England is voting in massive numbers.
Anyway back to gotv!
Those numbers are almost unbelievable when you think postal votes are on top.
Not really. It was said earlier that postal votes that have been returned are crossed through already before the polls open. So I assume that the number being reported from the polling station include that.
It's going to be a brutal night and long term the Pound is back in peril.
If this was a referendum on the Euro it would be 80-90% No
Give it a decade of "softening up" and we'll talk again...
I can't see the Tories advocating joining the Euro or Schengen. But, most of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is pretty content with the status quo and the direction of travel. I imagine most Conservative voters are not.
The thing is the whole things very confused. There have been plenty of Leave supporters on here who's argument for leaving wasn't that the EU was heading inevitably for a superstate with us in it, but rather that the EU is going to inevitably fall apart, and it is better to be already out before that happens. If you believe there is a strong possibility of the EU falling apart, I don't see why it isn't feasible to believe that the stresses and strains will simply lead, not to it falling apart, but a far more palatable situation whereby a core carry on doing what they want with the rest involved in a far looser union of the sort many leavers would be entirely content with.
I have cleaned toilets for a living in Crawley, grown up in South London, spent several years in Salford. (lancs) and now commute from rural Bedfordshire to within not much more than a stonesthrow from HM Palace and Fortress The Tower Of London and spend a good portion of time in south Somerset.
London lives in a bubble and many know less about their fellow countrymen than they do about our history.
Most Londoners were not born in the City, they came from elsewhere
I wouldn't be surprised if most Greater London residents who were born in Britain were born in Greater London.
Perhaps but inner London approaching a plurality may have been born outside the UK, let alone London
It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
I wonder how the tv channels will deal with this. There'll obviously be some of the atmosphere of election night, and some not. Part swingometer, part deadly silence.
I have cleaned toilets for a living in Crawley, grown up in South London, spent several years in Salford. (lancs) and now commute from rural Bedfordshire to within not much more than a stonesthrow from HM Palace and Fortress The Tower Of London and spend a good portion of time in south Somerset.
London lives in a bubble and many know less about their fellow countrymen than they do about our history.
I read that post to the tune of "I've never been to me".
Very quick as outside a polling station. This wwc had turnout in 30s in 2015 now we are past 69% and still they come. Driffield reports 88% turnout an hour ago. These are Leave heartlands. If and it's a big if this holds provincial England is voting in massive numbers.
Anyway back to gotv!
Those numbers are almost unbelievable when you think postal votes are on top.
By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.
Btw - What are "eyeball samples"? Is that a new fancy name for an exit poll?
No, you tally the votes as they are being verified before counting. You can then tell how a ward has voted roughly.
By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.
Btw - What are "eyeball samples"? Is that a new fancy name for an exit poll?
According to the teller, it had been "busy", but no indication of whether turnout was above GE levels or not. I passed a woman wearing a "Remain" t-shirt on the way in, and two or three of the voters (out of perhaps 10) were wearing "In" badges, but that's to be expected in NW3.
Disappointed. I was hoping there would be a fair few people in Hampstead who'd want to get out of the EU and turn London into the new Singapore.
Those that have are more afraid of losing it, than of making more.
It's why Martin Lewis voted Remain.
The rate of transformation of London continues to be remarkable. We just need to continue doing what we're doing. There's no need for a radical change of course.
By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.
Nick, if you don't mind me asking, what's your hunch on overall turnout?
65-70, or possibly 70-75. But that's based on the same data that you have (national reports) - I don't have any way of telling more than that. Certainly turnout seems just as high among young voters as older ones - I met a number of youngsters who on GE experience I'd have put down as unlikely to vote who had in fact voted. As others have said, I think that polls that assume a big age and class differential in turnout may be wrong.
I can't see the Tories advocating joining the Euro or Schengen. But, most of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is pretty content with the status quo and the direction of travel. I imagine most Conservative voters are not.
It's not obvious to me why or how a future Britain is going to discover its inner eurofederalist. For one thing it's not in the national psyche. But I can't see how underlying trends get us there either. In an increasingly globally interconnected world, tying ourselves to "Europe" seems rather parochial. Migrants from Commonwealth countries, China and elsewhere in the world are likely to retain an internationalist perspective than spans far beyond Brussels. One reason we accept a lot of EU influence/interference is because it's a bloc that forms about half our trade: but this is diminishing as other regions of the world grow, as trade restrictions become freer, and as the economic effects of distance grow smaller. Will our current concessions make so much sense once the EU forms only a third of our trade? One quarter?
Absolutely correct. But for me the EU is now post Federation and into it's early Culture phase. We need to get it to and through it's Iridian War.
Ah, the Culture. That's where I want to live.
I'm so sad that we'll never get another Culture novel. I love 'em all. Player of Games is probably my favourite, with Use of Weapons running a close second.
It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.
Absolutely correct. But for me the EU is now post Federation and into it's early Culture phase. We need to get it to and through it's Iridian War.
Ah, the Culture. That's where I want to live.
I'm so sad that we'll never get another Culture novel. I love 'em all. Player of Games is probably my favourite, with Use of Weapons running a close second.
My vote, and Mrs Jayfdee went to remain,by post. I spent a pleasant lunch in a Dorset village pub, drinking cider, the locals were very Kipperish, and planning a celebration drink for tomorrow, the Landlord was suggesting they may plan to drown their sorrows. Who knows,too late to change much now.
No way many commuters in Folkestone and Dover were expecting to vote after work: these guys get home late and likely would have voted in the morning before catching their train or voted by post.
They're still Remain btw. Generally, Leave is strongest among those who don't work/visit/live in proximity to London.
If you leave work in London at 6pm you will easily get to Folkestone or Dover by 8pm but builders from that area etc could be doing construction work in London and get back late and they may well vote Leave
FFS please give up. You're wrong and you know it (and if you don't you're a halfwit). Try conceding defeat gracefully.
Very quick as outside a polling station. This wwc had turnout in 30s in 2015 now we are past 69% and still they come. Driffield reports 88% turnout an hour ago. These are Leave heartlands. If and it's a big if this holds provincial England is voting in massive numbers.
Anyway back to gotv!
Those numbers are almost unbelievable when you think postal votes are on top.
Not really. It was said earlier that postal votes that have been returned are crossed through already before the polls open. So I assume that the number being reported from the polling station include that.
Alternatively could just be rubbish of course.
In Hampstead, the voter sheets have postal voters crossed though automatically (to stop people turning up with a polling card and trying to vote).
Or maybe I'm just short turnout at 73% and scared!
Sunderland 100,000+ for ............. one of the sides I reckon.
Sporting have the Sunderland result as being all done and dusted with the result declared in under 2 hours. Quite a feat if they achieve it ........ you couldn't make a Nissan Qashqai in that time.
Absolutely correct. But for me the EU is now post Federation and into it's early Culture phase. We need to get it to and through it's Iridian War.
Ah, the Culture. That's where I want to live.
I'm so sad that we'll never get another Culture novel. I love 'em all. Player of Games is probably my favourite, with Use of Weapons running a close second.
Likewise. I think Excession is my favourite.
Always considered Surface Detail to be head and shoulders above the rest.
While we're discussing Sci Fi the High Council of the Time Lords have already sent the Doctor back to reverse the Brexit vote. It'll never happen on this timeline. This explains the Betfair market.
Absolutely correct. But for me the EU is now post Federation and into it's early Culture phase. We need to get it to and through it's Iridian War.
Ah, the Culture. That's where I want to live.
Male, female, both or Apex.
I thought Apices were unique to Azad - or am I misremembering?
You're correct. Culturniks are born male or female but can change sex at will - it takes many months to complete the transition though so they don't usually do it very often. Gurgeh was considered odd as he had never done so.
LOL! At least we'll have an end to Farage as UKIP's leader anyway (he'll carry on claiming vast riches from the EU gravy-train as an MEP so won't be entirely out of public life)
According to the teller, it had been "busy", but no indication of whether turnout was above GE levels or not. I passed a woman wearing a "Remain" t-shirt on the way in, and two or three of the voters (out of perhaps 10) were wearing "In" badges, but that's to be expected in NW3.
Disappointed. I was hoping there would be a fair few people in Hampstead who'd want to get out of the EU and turn London into the new Singapore.
Those that have are more afraid of losing it, than of making more.
It's why Martin Lewis voted Remain.
The rate of transformation of London continues to be remarkable. We just need to continue doing what we're doing. There's no need for a radical change of course.
Trouble is other parts of the country might feel differently.
By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.
Btw - What are "eyeball samples"? Is that a new fancy name for an exit poll?
and is WWC white working class?
Yes, as Benedict says, you can sample votes as they come out of the boxes but before they've been formally counted. The term is on ei just made up.
Very quick as outside a polling station. This wwc had turnout in 30s in 2015 now we are past 69% and still they come. Driffield reports 88% turnout an hour ago. These are Leave heartlands. If and it's a big if this holds provincial England is voting in massive numbers.
Anyway back to gotv!
Those numbers are almost unbelievable when you think postal votes are on top.
Not really. It was said earlier that postal votes that have been returned are crossed through already before the polls open. So I assume that the number being reported from the polling station include that.
Alternatively could just be rubbish of course.
In Hampstead, the voter sheets have postal voters crossed though automatically (to stop people turning up with a polling card and trying to vote).
Or maybe I'm just short turnout at 73% and scared!
They do - but since the ballot papers to be issued at the polling station are numbered sequentially, that's the number that will be in most presiding officers' heads, against the potential total number of people that might turn up. I'd be surprised if many POs would have worked out a turnout figure including PVs, not least because they won't know how many PVs have been returned for their polling district. So assume any polling station reports exclude PVs unless told otherwise...
By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.
Do you think the "workers rights" message had some impact on WWC Labour voters?
I did hear someone earlier on my patch who (sterotype alert) by appearance looked like a typical Leave voter (complete with huge England flag covering his window) talking to his neighbour about how leaving would mean that "the Tories will be making us work 60 bloody hours a week and then going after the minimum wage".
No way many commuters in Folkestone and Dover were expecting to vote after work: these guys get home late and likely would have voted in the morning before catching their train or voted by post.
They're still Remain btw. Generally, Leave is strongest among those who don't work/visit/live in proximity to London.
If you leave work in London at 6pm you will easily get to Folkestone or Dover by 8pm but builders from that area etc could be doing construction work in London and get back late and they may well vote Leave
FFS please give up. You're wrong and you know it (and if you don't you're a halfwit). Try conceding defeat gracefully.
Conceding defeat? The polls have not even closed yet!
It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")
LOL! At least we'll have an end to Farage as UKIP's leader anyway (he'll carry on claiming vast riches from the EU gravy-train as an MEP so won't be entirely out of public life)
Every cloud has a silver lining.
Do you think Farage will finally go? I don't see it. He won't go voluntarily and, as we saw last year, there is no-one able to push him.
Absolutely correct. But for me the EU is now post Federation and into it's early Culture phase. We need to get it to and through it's Iridian War.
Ah, the Culture. That's where I want to live.
I'm so sad that we'll never get another Culture novel. I love 'em all. Player of Games is probably my favourite, with Use of Weapons running a close second.
Likewise. I think Excession is my favourite.
Use of Weapons for me - one of my two favourite SF books, the other is Heinlein's The Moon Is A Harsh Mistress so I guess I cover both anarcho-communism and anarcho-capitalism.
By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.
Do you think the "workers rights" message had some impact on WWC Labour voters?
I did hear someone earlier on my patch who (sterotype alert) by appearance looked like a typical Leave voter (complete with huge England flag covering his window) talking to his neighbour about how leaving would mean that "the Tories will be making us work 60 bloody hours a week and then going after the minimum wage".
Which of course is bollocks...but then that sums up this campaign.
Absolutely correct. But for me the EU is now post Federation and into it's early Culture phase. We need to get it to and through it's Iridian War.
Ah, the Culture. That's where I want to live.
I'm so sad that we'll never get another Culture novel. I love 'em all. Player of Games is probably my favourite, with Use of Weapons running a close second.
Likewise. I think Excession is my favourite.
Excession is outstanding. The Culture is almost a non-government. Banks may have told us things that he didn't realise.
By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.
Do you think the "workers rights" message had some impact on WWC Labour voters?
I did hear someone earlier on my patch who (sterotype alert) by appearance looked like a typical Leave voter (complete with huge England flag covering his window) talking to his neighbour about how leaving would mean that "the Tories will be making us work 60 bloody hours a week and then going after the minimum wage".
Very astute fella. Considering, Leave was dominated by neo liberal marketeers that wasn't a bad assessment.
Just a question....it would be interesting to see how people break down by choice of career; estate agents for instance.
Very quick as outside a polling station. This wwc had turnout in 30s in 2015 now we are past 69% and still they come. Driffield reports 88% turnout an hour ago. These are Leave heartlands. If and it's a big if this holds provincial England is voting in massive numbers.
Anyway back to gotv!
Those numbers are almost unbelievable when you think postal votes are on top.
Not really. It was said earlier that postal votes that have been returned are crossed through already before the polls open. So I assume that the number being reported from the polling station include that.
Alternatively could just be rubbish of course.
Or maybe I'm just short turnout at 73% and scared!
Me too! I'm very jittery...
Btw, thanks @nick. Despite my betting position, I really hope we have a large turnout and a decisive result.
Even when we don't personally like the result, when democracy wins, we all win.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
LOL! At least we'll have an end to Farage as UKIP's leader anyway (he'll carry on claiming vast riches from the EU gravy-train as an MEP so won't be entirely out of public life)
Every cloud has a silver lining.
Do you think Farage will finally go? I don't see it.
By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.
Btw - What are "eyeball samples"? Is that a new fancy name for an exit poll?
No, you tally the votes as they are being verified before counting. You can then tell how a ward has voted roughly.
More than roughly, if you put some effort into it. And box by box, hence down to polling district level.
But as far as we punters outside of counts are concerned, its a criminal offence for anyone inside to transmit such information in advance of a declaration. The best we are going to get is second hand 'rumours' via journalists, which just might be based on some off-the-record info they have got from someone inside
Absolutely correct. But for me the EU is now post Federation and into it's early Culture phase. We need to get it to and through it's Iridian War.
Ah, the Culture. That's where I want to live.
I'm so sad that we'll never get another Culture novel. I love 'em all. Player of Games is probably my favourite, with Use of Weapons running a close second.
Likewise. I think Excession is my favourite.
Excession is outstanding. The Culture is almost a non-government. Banks may have told us things that he didn't realise.
I like to think of IMB as having been a Contact agent sent here to prepare us. Elon Musk is also a Contact agent working on Phase II.
Very quick as outside a polling station. This wwc had turnout in 30s in 2015 now we are past 69% and still they come. Driffield reports 88% turnout an hour ago. These are Leave heartlands. If and it's a big if this holds provincial England is voting in massive numbers.
Anyway back to gotv!
Those numbers are almost unbelievable when you think postal votes are on top.
Not really. It was said earlier that postal votes that have been returned are crossed through already before the polls open. So I assume that the number being reported from the polling station include that.
Alternatively could just be rubbish of course.
Or maybe I'm just short turnout at 73% and scared!
Me too! I'm very jittery...
Btw, thanks @nick. Despite my betting position, I really hope we have a large turnout and a decisive result.
Even when we don't personally like the result, when democracy wins, we all win.
I hope we have a huge turnout and a narrow verdict. Will stop the headcases on both sides from making too much out of the result.
It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.
Do you think the "workers rights" message had some impact on WWC Labour voters?
I did hear someone earlier on my patch who (sterotype alert) by appearance looked like a typical Leave voter (complete with huge England flag covering his window) talking to his neighbour about how leaving would mean that "the Tories will be making us work 60 bloody hours a week and then going after the minimum wage".
If Remain wins ...
It will be interesting to investigate what influenced working class Labour supporters in their vote. It may be what you say or it may be that the John Harris working class revolt thesis was always overstated and that the Leave campaign came across as too right-wing-dominated to appeal.
But if Leave wins we'll be having a different discussion entirely.
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
Any chance at all of you making it to the polling place?
By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.
Do you think the "workers rights" message had some impact on WWC Labour voters?
I did hear someone earlier on my patch who (sterotype alert) by appearance looked like a typical Leave voter (complete with huge England flag covering his window) talking to his neighbour about how leaving would mean that "the Tories will be making us work 60 bloody hours a week and then going after the minimum wage".
Very astute fella. Considering, Leave was dominated by neo liberal marketeers that wasn't a bad assessment.
Just a question....it would be interesting to see how people break down by choice of career; estate agents for instance.
I'm disappointed no one in Remain went with the " We can work with Brussels or work for the Chinese " line after Port Talbot.
Anecdote: a conversation reported to me earlier with someone at the BBC in Salford - apparently it's difficult to find a Remainer there. Unexpected, certainly, but possibly given the Corbynist nature of some at the BBC believable. Or maybe it's different between the workers and the higher echelons.
Very quick as outside a polling station. This wwc had turnout in 30s in 2015 now we are past 69% and still they come. Driffield reports 88% turnout an hour ago. These are Leave heartlands. If and it's a big if this holds provincial England is voting in massive numbers.
Anyway back to gotv!
Those numbers are almost unbelievable when you think postal votes are on top.
Not really. It was said earlier that postal votes that have been returned are crossed through already before the polls open. So I assume that the number being reported from the polling station include that.
Alternatively could just be rubbish of course.
Or maybe I'm just short turnout at 73% and scared!
Me too! I'm very jittery...
Btw, thanks @nick. Despite my betting position, I really hope we have a large turnout and a decisive result.
Even when we don't personally like the result, when democracy wins, we all win.
I hope we have a huge turnout and a narrow verdict. Will stop the headcases on both sides from making too much out of the result.
unfortunately a win will be taken as a win by whichever side.
big headache though if Scotland props England up in the EU?
So frustrating. Stuck just outside Banbury now. Am not the only one who is missing out. There are a few of us in the same spot, it seems. Remainers, unfortunately. Or maybe there are some shy Leavers too :-)
I would move voting to the weekend, possibly over both days, so that instances like this were rarer.
It's why life is so much easier with a postal vote. You aren't obliged to vote in advance, and you can fill it in and get somebody else to pop it down the polling station for you in an emergency.
Very quick as outside a polling station. This wwc had turnout in 30s in 2015 now we are past 69% and still they come. Driffield reports 88% turnout an hour ago. These are Leave heartlands. If and it's a big if this holds provincial England is voting in massive numbers.
Anyway back to gotv!
Those numbers are almost unbelievable when you think postal votes are on top.
Not really. It was said earlier that postal votes that have been returned are crossed through already before the polls open. So I assume that the number being reported from the polling station include that.
Alternatively could just be rubbish of course.
Or maybe I'm just short turnout at 73% and scared!
Me too! I'm very jittery...
Btw, thanks @nick. Despite my betting position, I really hope we have a large turnout and a decisive result.
Even when we don't personally like the result, when democracy wins, we all win.
I hope we have a huge turnout and a narrow verdict. Will stop the headcases on both sides from making too much out of the result.
unfortunately a win will be taken as a win by whichever side.
big headache though if Scotland props England up in the EU?
It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")
The spreads have Sunderland as being approx. REMAIN 46% : Leave 54%. Anything materially different from that will excite the betting markets.
Very quick as outside a polling station. This wwc had turnout in 30s in 2015 now we are past 69% and still they come. Driffield reports 88% turnout an hour ago. These are Leave heartlands. If and it's a big if this holds provincial England is voting in massive numbers.
Anyway back to gotv!
Those numbers are almost unbelievable when you think postal votes are on top.
Not really. It was said earlier that postal votes that have been returned are crossed through already before the polls open. So I assume that the number being reported from the polling station include that.
Alternatively could just be rubbish of course.
Or maybe I'm just short turnout at 73% and scared!
Me too! I'm very jittery...
Btw, thanks @nick. Despite my betting position, I really hope we have a large turnout and a decisive result.
Even when we don't personally like the result, when democracy wins, we all win.
I hope we have a huge turnout and a narrow verdict. Will stop the headcases on both sides from making too much out of the result.
unfortunately a win will be taken as a win by whichever side.
big headache though if Scotland props England up in the EU?
I'm conflicted on that point. We are one country. We can't cherry pick the result. I'm sure the shrieking would go on for years though, which would be extremely tedious.
No way many commuters in Folkestone and Dover were expecting to vote after work: these guys get home late and likely would have voted in the morning before catching their train or voted by post.
They're still Remain btw. Generally, Leave is strongest among those who don't work/visit/live in proximity to London.
If you leave work in London at 6pm you will easily get to Folkestone or Dover by 8pm but builders from that area etc could be doing construction work in London and get back late and they may well vote Leave
FFS please give up. You're wrong and you know it (and if you don't you're a halfwit). Try conceding defeat gracefully.
Conceding defeat? The polls have not even closed yet!
No, of course not. Your micro-analysis of the Dover commuter electorate.
It's strange to think big Ben will.strike 10, the election programmed will roll & then we will have to wait 4-5 hrs being they actually start to say anything about the possible result.
We will surely have a pretty good idea long before that, unless it is VERY close? The fact is that unlike a general election we will be able to deduce something from every result - with the important thing in many cases not being who wins in various areas, but what the turnout is. In General Elections it is the marginal seats which are most important, but that is not the case here. If anything marginal constituencies are very unimportant, because a close race can have a turnout of 10% or 90% and it won't make much difference.
I think Sunderland will tell us all we need to know (REMAIN will do vastly better than "expected")
Quite likely - I hope everyone is keyed up to move their position, one way or the other.
Leave < 50 : pack bags and welcome evermore EU integration Leave 50-53: Looks like the Brussels gravy train is back on track. Leave 53-54: No fingernails left. Leave 54-57: Cameron in stinky bum time Leave 57+ : Rejoice.
Comments
Londoners are much like you - we've had the great fortune of making some money if we were lucky by virtue of a property boom, but that's a double edged sword in that we can't ever imagine living in the areas that feel to us like home.
Happily I've done reasonably well in life and I'd certainly be regarded as well off. In London though it counts for nothing.
What does count for something though is that I as a Londoner regard my country as my home. If you wish to tell me otherwise then that would be rather disappointing.
LOL
In the end, politics isn't worth arguing about really. Always look on the bright side ...
Alternatively could just be rubbish of course.
Who knows,too late to change much now.
Or maybe I'm just short turnout at 73% and scared!
Every cloud has a silver lining.
WWC - yes.
I did hear someone earlier on my patch who (sterotype alert) by appearance looked like a typical Leave voter (complete with huge England flag covering his window) talking to his neighbour about how leaving would mean that "the Tories will be making us work 60 bloody hours a week and then going after the minimum wage".
Will it be the Future Perfect tense, though?
Edit! Assuming Remain wins, which I don't assume!
Just a question....it would be interesting to see how people break down by choice of career; estate agents for instance.
Btw, thanks @nick. Despite my betting position, I really hope we have a large turnout and a decisive result.
Even when we don't personally like the result, when democracy wins, we all win.
But as far as we punters outside of counts are concerned, its a criminal offence for anyone inside to transmit such information in advance of a declaration. The best we are going to get is second hand 'rumours' via journalists, which just might be based on some off-the-record info they have got from someone inside
60+ Great for Leave
50 - Great for Remain
In between, who knows?
It will be interesting to investigate what influenced working class Labour supporters in their vote. It may be what you say or it may be that the John Harris working class revolt thesis was always overstated and that the Leave campaign came across as too right-wing-dominated to appeal.
But if Leave wins we'll be having a different discussion entirely.
big headache though if Scotland props England up in the EU?
At least they'll be safe when we vote leave...
Probably true. But still 30 mins of voting left.
Leave < 50 : pack bags and welcome evermore EU integration
Leave 50-53: Looks like the Brussels gravy train is back on track.
Leave 53-54: No fingernails left.
Leave 54-57: Cameron in stinky bum time
Leave 57+ : Rejoice.