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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,040

    Work colleague in the US has emailed to say the ref's getting a lot of coverage over there - blessedly pushing Trump/Clinton/Isis/guns off their headlines for a bit.

    I'm also getting questions from the US. Can Cameron order a rerun because of the rain? Is it an electoral college or is every vote the same weight?
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    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    RobD said:

    Gibraltar must be readying itself for its greatest moment of national adulation and excitement since John Lennon briefly touched there down to get married to Yoko Ohno in 1969, before looking a bit bored. For the Scilly Isles, the sky must be the limit.

    Wonder which lucky BBC correspondent got the gig?
    Surely Justin Rowlatt.
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    edited June 2016

    I've been catching up with the methodology in the final YouGov poll, which they adjusted for turnout. Their approach to differential turnout can be summed up as follows:
    "We have made a judgment call that we would rather use a high quality estimate of the patterns of turnout from the 2015 general election than a low quality estimate of the patterns of turnout for the referendum based on the historical stability of turnout patterns, but this is a key place where we might get things wrong if there is a large change in turnout patterns."

    So their turnout adjustment is a mirror of GE2015 and so assumes that C2DEs will continue to be disengaged from politics to the same extent as at the general election, or at least that any increase in turnout in this group is no more than that for ABC1s.

    I think YouGov's assumption is wrong. And that's good for Leave.

    I agree with you. Why couldn't they use self-reported likelihood to vote, and then adjust according to data on how likely different groups are to vote having said they will? Surely they have information on the latter? I seem to remember a photo of a pioneering pollster, probably George Gallup, asking a woman whether she would buy something and also asking her whether she'd go and watch a Shakespeare play if one was on in another part of town. I thought some kind of methodology for assessing the veracity of what people tell pollsters was old hat. They can't half be faux naif, even when they present themselves as some kind of super-engineers. If I ran a hedge fund, I wouldn't want the kind of crappy poll that newspapers pay for.
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    kle4 said:

    MattW said:

    FPT:
    The leavers with their "pens" seem to have caught the notion from Scottish Nationalist conspiraloons:

    https://www.sundaypost.com/news/political-news/yes-voters-say-poll-may-be-nobbled/
    https://www.facebook.com/IndependentScot/photos/pb.181452502007292.-2207520000.1408820108./367892956696578/?type=3&theater

    Wonder if they are doing Yogic Flying as well.

    The Natural Law party were euroskeptic according to one of their PPBs linked on here awhile back.
    This campaign has been more about phobic lying than yogic flying.
    Brilliant !
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    #IVotedLeave trending on Twitter, I'm told.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,560
    Two private messages on Facebook this evening from friends (university graduates ABs) who are confessing to me they voted Leave today (and that my article and arguments helped them a lot) but can't publicly declare it on Facebook.

    I wonder why..
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    IPA, or a rather nice southern Rhone red?

    Should I Leave the beer in the fridge or should the wine Remain unopened?

    That is the question vexing me at present.

    Could the PB glitterati give some advice?
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    nunununu Posts: 6,024

    Managed to get on 19.47, which ended up leaving at 8.07. Now it's a race against time. Currently not moving somewhere just outside High Wycombe.

    Good Luck!
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    Very quick as outside a polling station. This wwc had turnout in 30s in 2015 now we are past 69% and still they come. Driffield reports 88% turnout an hour ago. These are Leave heartlands. If and it's a big if this holds provincial England is voting in massive numbers.

    Anyway back to gotv!
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    No.. Its just drifting back up to the previous highs of the day.. Some people are thechnicly trading this..
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    tysontyson Posts: 6,055
    MikeL said:

    Betfair edging further to Remain in last 15 mins.

    Leave now 7.8 (from 7.4 about 15 mins ago).

    Presumably some people must now have info from private polls?

    I'll give you some hope...the fact that you can still get 7-1 on betfair suggests that the result is not conclusive beyond all reasonable doubt.

    When it gets to less that 10-1 you know the game is up. This isn't there yet....

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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,942
    So how much do we think Remain has won this by?
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,479
    Just back from voting in leafy Hampstead.

    According to the teller, it had been "busy", but no indication of whether turnout was above GE levels or not. I passed a woman wearing a "Remain" t-shirt on the way in, and two or three of the voters (out of perhaps 10) were wearing "In" badges, but that's to be expected in NW3.
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    HYUFD said:

    timmo said:

    Starfall said:

    Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

    No mainly people with city banking or insurance jobs who have big houses and have most to lose in their eyes. So therefore on balance remain brigade.
    Yep, London commuters will largely be Remain. The further south and east you get in Kent, away from London, the more UKIP/Leave it is.
    Yes but most of those Remain commuters live in Surrey, Buckinghamshire, or West Kent not the Kent coast, so less than an hour from central London thus even delays will not prevent them voting by 10pm unless they only left the office at 9pm in which case they may have voted first thing in the morning anyway. Commuters to Dover, Thanet, Folkestone etc which is a longer journey but cheaper property are more likely to be for Leave
    You seem very keen to do down any other pov. Me thinks you are trying to convince your good self
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    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255

    #IVotedLeave trending on Twitter, I'm told.

    That's interesting as a trend, because twitter isn't exactly leave-friendly, as a metropolitan-dominated medium.
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Some of my Muslim friends have set their social media profiles to a European flag, with a big "IN" just above the centre of the stars, and a smaller "SHALLAH" below it.

    That'll really wind up the Kippers :-)
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    bazzerbazzer Posts: 44
    I feel a sell of turnout at 72.75 with spreadex is a very appealing bet - I could see turnut ending up significantly lower, even slightly below GE levels. I struggle to see much downside to this bet - is there realistically any chance of an extremely high turnout of around 80% given certainty to vote figures in polling and rain etc in London? I feel very unlikely.
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    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    tyson said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm a counting agent tonight. That's far better for my state of mind than feverishly refreshing my IPad..

    I'm watching some old Horizons on Iplayer. Fascinating stuff about before the Big Bang. It is quite mind blowing to think that all the matter that is inside me, Sean Fear, Nigel Farage, Roger, Jack, Boris and Dave and Junker and the other 6 billion or so people, and the universe started from a very small point.
    No, it didn’t. The Universe did not start at a very small point.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080

    So how much do we think Remain has won this by?

    15-20% 60/40.

    It's going to be a brutal night and long term the Pound is back in peril.
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    What would be the best result for the pollsters collectively, in terms of providing them with some degree of wriggle room?

    Somewhere around Remain 52% : Leave 48% I would guess, although this would still leave them with some explaining to do.
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    IPA, or a rather nice southern Rhone red?

    Should I Leave the beer in the fridge or should the wine Remain unopened?

    That is the question vexing me at present.

    Could the PB glitterati give some advice?

    I've just been to Morrisons for my results night marathon nibbles and light buffet. As an added psychic two fingers I bought some items from the tiny " East European " section for the first time. It's arrival caused much muttering last year.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,560
    Does anyone have the data tables for today's populus poll?

    I note this: "What we reproduce here is a product of tighter quotas, including balancing our sample by social attitudes, perceived national identity, political interests and recent voting behaviour as well as by traditional political and demographic methods. These results also reflect not only people’s stated likelihood to vote but also their propensity to do so based on their characteristics as well as the underlying attitudes of those who are likely to have voted but who have not stated a referendum preference.

    The actual result will be known soon enough, but by publishing our prediction we hope to demonstrate that with careful quotas and statistical modelling online polling can be robustly representative of the voting public when it comes to measuring sensitive political issues."

    It sounds like quite a lot of adjustments to me.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,644
    GIN1138 said:

    So how much do we think Remain has won this by?

    15-20% 60/40.

    It's going to be a brutal night and long term the Pound is back in peril.
    If this was a referendum on the Euro it would be 80-90% No
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    MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,348
    edited June 2016
    tyson said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair edging further to Remain in last 15 mins.

    Leave now 7.8 (from 7.4 about 15 mins ago).

    Presumably some people must now have info from private polls?

    I'll give you some hope...the fact that you can still get 7-1 on betfair suggests that the result is not conclusive beyond all reasonable doubt.

    When it gets to less that 10-1 you know the game is up. This isn't there yet....

    Not sure why that's giving me hope? I voted Remain.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So how much do we think Remain has won this by?

    15-20% 60/40.

    It's going to be a brutal night and long term the Pound is back in peril.
    If this was a referendum on the Euro it would be 80-90% No
    Give it a decade of "softening up" and we'll talk again...
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,644

    Two private messages on Facebook this evening from friends (university graduates ABs) who are confessing to me they voted Leave today (and that my article and arguments helped them a lot) but can't publicly declare it on Facebook.

    I wonder why..

    Unless such voters don't declare it to pollsters too it is irrelevant what they don't declare on Facebook
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,530
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So how much do we think Remain has won this by?

    15-20% 60/40.

    It's going to be a brutal night and long term the Pound is back in peril.
    If this was a referendum on the Euro it would be 80-90% No
    Give it a decade of "softening up" and we'll talk again...
    I seriously doubt this.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,116
    edited June 2016
    Source from a few hours ago, has said things have gotten better, Labour supporters will be Cameron's Blücher
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    BarnesianBarnesian Posts: 8,040
    tyson said:

    Sean_F said:

    I'm a counting agent tonight. That's far better for my state of mind than feverishly refreshing my IPad..

    I'm watching some old Horizons on Iplayer. Fascinating stuff about before the Big Bang. It is quite mind blowing to think that all the matter that is inside me, Sean Fear, Nigel Farage, Roger, Jack, Boris and Dave and Junker and the other 6 billion or so people, and the universe started from a very small point.
    A very very very heavy small point. Why wasn't it a black hole? Perhaps it was and we're all in it. That would explain a lot. We had to be processed through supernovas to create the heavier elements in our bodies (except hydrogen and helium). It puts things into perspective.
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    Paul_BedfordshirePaul_Bedfordshire Posts: 3,632
    edited June 2016
    I have cleaned toilets for a living in Crawley, grown up in South London, spent several years in Salford. (lancs) and now commute from rural Bedfordshire to within not much more than a stonesthrow from HM Palace and Fortress The Tower Of London and spend a good portion of time in south Somerset.

    London lives in a bubble and many know less about their fellow countrymen than they do about our history.
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,099
    rcs1000 said:

    Just back from voting in leafy Hampstead.

    According to the teller, it had been "busy", but no indication of whether turnout was above GE levels or not. I passed a woman wearing a "Remain" t-shirt on the way in, and two or three of the voters (out of perhaps 10) were wearing "In" badges, but that's to be expected in NW3.

    Disappointed. I was hoping there would be a fair few people in Hampstead who'd want to get out of the EU and turn London into the new Singapore.
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    KentRisingKentRising Posts: 2,850
    @HYUFD

    No way many commuters in Folkestone and Dover were expecting to vote after work: these guys get home late and likely would have voted in the morning before catching their train or voted by post.

    They're still Remain btw. Generally, Leave is strongest among those who don't work/visit/live in proximity to London.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,644

    HYUFD said:

    timmo said:

    Starfall said:

    Problems at Waterloo are more likely to stop Leavey home counties commuters voting than Remainey Londoners, right?

    No mainly people with city banking or insurance jobs who have big houses and have most to lose in their eyes. So therefore on balance remain brigade.
    Yep, London commuters will largely be Remain. The further south and east you get in Kent, away from London, the more UKIP/Leave it is.
    Yes but most of those Remain commuters live in Surrey, Buckinghamshire, or West Kent not the Kent coast, so less than an hour from central London thus even delays will not prevent them voting by 10pm unless they only left the office at 9pm in which case they may have voted first thing in the morning anyway. Commuters to Dover, Thanet, Folkestone etc which is a longer journey but cheaper property are more likely to be for Leave
    You seem very keen to do down any other pov. Me thinks you are trying to convince your good self
    I voted in Leave Essex earlier and was no vast turnout there, inevitably Leavers will bias their anecdotes a little and Remainers too
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    JosiasJessopJosiasJessop Posts: 39,530
    My FB feed is mainly filled with remainers' garbage, with a few plaintive wails from leavers.

    I therefore commend a friend who posted:

    "Beyond bored of recent reality. Off to the world of Warcraft. ‪#‎voteorc‬"
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    AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340

    I have cleaned toilets for a living in Crawley, grown up in South London, spent several years in Salford. (lancs) and now commute from rural Bedfordshire to within not much more than a stonesthrow from HM Palace and Fortress The Tower Of London and spend a good portion of time in south Somerset.

    London lives in a bubble and many know less about their fellow countrymen than they do about our history.

    I read that post to the tune of "I've never been to me".
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    GeoffMGeoffM Posts: 6,071

    Gibraltar must be readying itself for its greatest moment of national adulation and excitement since John Lennon briefly touched there down to get married to Yoko Ohno in 1969, before looking a bit bored.

    * Other historic events are available.

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    I thought Robert's post on the last thread was interesting.

    We are perhaps overly influenced by the sequence of the poll release, with Populus poll today and ComRes phone polls last night, which had clear Remain leads, but yougov/ipsos-mori/opinium had it much closer. And have they all been weighted correctly?

    If not, and a lot of non-traditional voters are turning out, that have been downweighted, this could be closer than we think.

    Anyway, I've topped on Leave at 7.2 on Betfair.

    I've had an extra slice of Brexit at those odds too.
    It will be very surprising (and disappointing for me) should LEAVE score less than 45% and for that reason, Corals' odds of 15/8 a couple of hours ago against them winning 45% - 50% looked like value to me.
    DYOR
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,644

    I have cleaned toilets for a living in Crawley, grown up in South London, spent several years in Salford. (lancs) and now commute from rural Bedfordshire to within not much more than a stonesthrow from HM Palace and Fortress The Tower Of London and spend a good portion of time in south Somerset.

    London lives in a bubble and many know less about their fellow countrymen than they do about our history.

    Most Londoners were not born in the City, they came from elsewhere
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944
    weejonnie said:

    MikeL said:

    Betfair edging further to Remain in last 15 mins.

    Leave now 7.8 (from 7.4 about 15 mins ago).

    Well off wanting some fun after they've had their dinner. The pound-dollar and pound-euro would be a better indication IMHO if there's private polling going on.
    Pound currently rising against both.

    That said, private polling in this election as an exit poll will be a mugs game.
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    RealBritainRealBritain Posts: 255
    GeoffM said:

    Gibraltar must be readying itself for its greatest moment of national adulation and excitement since John Lennon briefly touched there down to get married to Yoko Ohno in 1969, before looking a bit bored.

    * Other historic events are available.

    Surely none as momentous and joyful for the inhabitants of the rock, though.
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    mwjfrome17mwjfrome17 Posts: 158
    £ moving up strongly now approaching 1.49
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    What % of the vote does Remain need for the UK to become officially one of the most pro-EU countries in the union?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    IPA, or a rather nice southern Rhone red?

    Should I Leave the beer in the fridge or should the wine Remain unopened?

    That is the question vexing me at present.

    Could the PB glitterati give some advice?

    I've just been to Morrisons for my results night marathon nibbles and light buffet. As an added psychic two fingers I bought some items from the tiny " East European " section for the first time. It's arrival caused much muttering last year.
    Good point. They do a nice cold Tyskie in our Co-op...
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    YellowSubmarineYellowSubmarine Posts: 2,740

    Source from a few hours ago, has said things have gotten better, Labour supporters will be Cameron's Blücher

    Yes. But Labour voting Graduates choosing between Cameron and Boris/Gove/Farage doesn't suit the narrative.
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    Does anyone have the data tables for today's populus poll?

    I note this: "What we reproduce here is a product of tighter quotas, including balancing our sample by social attitudes, perceived national identity, political interests and recent voting behaviour as well as by traditional political and demographic methods. These results also reflect not only people’s stated likelihood to vote but also their propensity to do so based on their characteristics as well as the underlying attitudes of those who are likely to have voted but who have not stated a referendum preference.

    The actual result will be known soon enough, but by publishing our prediction we hope to demonstrate that with careful quotas and statistical modelling online polling can be robustly representative of the voting public when it comes to measuring sensitive political issues."

    It sounds like quite a lot of adjustments to me.

    It sounds like they might as well have just asked people taking money out of cashpoints. In fact it is reminding me of the reason for wattsupwiththat
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,644

    @HYUFD

    No way many commuters in Folkestone and Dover were expecting to vote after work: these guys get home late and likely would have voted in the morning before catching their train or voted by post.

    They're still Remain btw. Generally, Leave is strongest among those who don't work/visit/live in proximity to London.

    If you leave work in London at 6pm you will easily get to Folkestone or Dover by 8pm but builders from that area etc could be doing construction work in London and get back late and they may well vote Leave
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    SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,071
    Won't make it. Still 45 minutes to go, at least. I only hope Remain doesn't lose by one!!!

    Meanwhile ...

    https://twitter.com/herald_editor/status/746063635655581697
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,099

    Source from a few hours ago, has said things have gotten better, Labour supporters will be Cameron's Blücher

    Cameron tomorrow morning in Downing St

    'I'm delighted that the Scottish people have decided in this referendum that they wish to stay inside the European Union. I know many of them don't like me but all I can do is thank you from the bottom of my heart for saving my political career. Now we must get on and solve the English question. Why did so many of them want to leave the EU?'
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    John_N4John_N4 Posts: 553
    HYUFD said:

    I have cleaned toilets for a living in Crawley, grown up in South London, spent several years in Salford. (lancs) and now commute from rural Bedfordshire to within not much more than a stonesthrow from HM Palace and Fortress The Tower Of London and spend a good portion of time in south Somerset.

    London lives in a bubble and many know less about their fellow countrymen than they do about our history.

    Most Londoners were not born in the City, they came from elsewhere
    I wouldn't be surprised if most Greater London residents who were born in Britain were born in Greater London.
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    fitalassfitalass Posts: 4,279
    edited June 2016
    MattW said:

    FPT:
    The leavers with their "pens" seem to have caught the notion from Scottish Nationalist conspiraloons:

    https://www.sundaypost.com/news/political-news/yes-voters-say-poll-may-be-nobbled/
    https://www.facebook.com/IndependentScot/photos/pb.181452502007292.-2207520000.1408820108./367892956696578/?type=3&theater

    Wonder if they are doing Yogic Flying as well.

    Gives you flashbacks to the Indy Ref. :)

    Whole family has now voted, in fact our three lads and their girlfriends all voted before us today, not bad for a bunch of 18-24 year olds! Been told that voting has been brisk, at least GE levels.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,560
    HYUFD said:

    Two private messages on Facebook this evening from friends (university graduates ABs) who are confessing to me they voted Leave today (and that my article and arguments helped them a lot) but can't publicly declare it on Facebook.

    I wonder why..

    Unless such voters don't declare it to pollsters too it is irrelevant what they don't declare on Facebook
    No shit sherlock.
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    CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758

    just been down the pub

    returns officer saying busiest he's seen it, neighboring village also high turnout

    What's the returns officer doing in the pub!!
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    blackburn63blackburn63 Posts: 4,492

    @HYUFD

    No way many commuters in Folkestone and Dover were expecting to vote after work: these guys get home late and likely would have voted in the morning before catching their train or voted by post.

    They're still Remain btw. Generally, Leave is strongest among those who don't work/visit/live in proximity to London.

    The number of people who commute from Dover is negligible. In any event Dover will be strongly for Leave.
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,148

    Won't make it. Still 45 minutes to go, at least. I only hope Remain doesn't lose by one!!!

    Meanwhile ...

    https://twitter.com/herald_editor/status/746063635655581697

    Cab from the station?
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    foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548

    Won't make it. Still 45 minutes to go, at least. I only hope Remain doesn't lose by one!!!

    Meanwhile ...

    https://twitter.com/herald_editor/status/746063635655581697

    Pehaps postal votes are not so bad after all.
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    GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 21,080
    edited June 2016

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So how much do we think Remain has won this by?

    15-20% 60/40.

    It's going to be a brutal night and long term the Pound is back in peril.
    If this was a referendum on the Euro it would be 80-90% No
    Give it a decade of "softening up" and we'll talk again...
    I seriously doubt this.
    Why? The Euro is the end game for the europhile establishment. Always has been. The campaign to join the Euro had to be abandoned during the economic crash and subsequent EU travails... But. as someone once said, they've not gone away you know.

    We're about to REMAIN in an entirely unreformed EU, which is set on "ever closer union" by perhaps as much as 20%. This will be huge shot in the arm for the elites and corporations who want us to adopt the Euro.

    It won't happen immediately. It will take a decade to soften us up (and, bluntly, to allow enough old people to die) but tomorrow morning they are back in the game.
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    One hour to go until polls close
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    RobDRobD Posts: 59,148
    Charles said:

    just been down the pub

    returns officer saying busiest he's seen it, neighboring village also high turnout

    What's the returns officer doing in the pub!!
    Great minds Charles, great minds! :D
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    One hour of polling to go.
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    saddenedsaddened Posts: 2,245

    IPA, or a rather nice southern Rhone red?

    Should I Leave the beer in the fridge or should the wine Remain unopened?

    That is the question vexing me at present.

    As an added psychic two fingers I bought some items from the tiny " East European " section for the first time. It's arrival caused much muttering last year.

    They must go apoplectic in the curry and pasta aisle.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,942

    IPA, or a rather nice southern Rhone red?

    Should I Leave the beer in the fridge or should the wine Remain unopened?

    That is the question vexing me at present.

    Could the PB glitterati give some advice?

    I've just been to Morrisons for my results night marathon nibbles and light buffet. As an added psychic two fingers I bought some items from the tiny " East European " section for the first time. It's arrival caused much muttering last year.
    Good point. They do a nice cold Tyskie in our Co-op...
    Oh god no. Plenty of nice stuff from Poland, that gut rot is not one of them.
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,156

    Does anyone have the data tables for today's populus poll?

    I note this: "What we reproduce here is a product of tighter quotas, including balancing our sample by social attitudes, perceived national identity, political interests and recent voting behaviour as well as by traditional political and demographic methods. These results also reflect not only people’s stated likelihood to vote but also their propensity to do so based on their characteristics as well as the underlying attitudes of those who are likely to have voted but who have not stated a referendum preference.

    The actual result will be known soon enough, but by publishing our prediction we hope to demonstrate that with careful quotas and statistical modelling online polling can be robustly representative of the voting public when it comes to measuring sensitive political issues."

    It sounds like quite a lot of adjustments to me.

    By a remarkable coincidence, they are all likely to be adjustments that favour Remain.
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,560
    glw said:

    If not, and a lot of non-traditional voters are turning out, that have been downweighted, this could be closer than we think.

    That's my last grasp of hope that there has been a massive weighting cock-up.
    Yes, but the likely closeness of the result isn't reflected in the betting odds.
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469

    £ moving up strongly now approaching 1.49

    £ moving up strongly now approaching 1.49

    As much USD weakness as stg strength here
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    MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Source from a few hours ago, has said things have gotten better, Labour supporters will be Cameron's Blücher

    Since UKIP were operating independently of the main Vote Leave operation, but whose support might have been crucial to see Boris, Gove, Gisela and Hoey (& friends) over the line, this means that Nigel Farage is actually Marshal Grouchy, a personification that fits him perfectly!
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,945
    Never mind the referendum. There are local bye-elections tonight, including one in Sunningdale and Ascot. Conservative hold?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,386
    Acecdotal but fairly broadly-based report from St George's Ward Islington, which is Corbyn heartland. I've just called it a day personally, as I have had a knee problem and 10 hours on the doorstep will do me for today. We had about 30 people knocking up, including Jeremy for part of the day.

    Summary:

    On the downside for Remain, turnout at the polling station was only middling at 4pm - 25-30%, i.e. better than Mayoral at that time but below GE levels.

    On the upside, the streets are awash with Remain posters in windows - roughly every second house - and I didn't encounter one Remain promise all day who was wavering: with single exception, every one had either voted or pledged to vote at a specific time. (Obviously some people were simply not in.) There was intermittent brief heavy rain, not enough to matter.

    Broadly speaking my impression from looking at the canvass records is that Remain was winning 80-85% in the middle class (Guardianish) roads and 65-70% on the (ex-)council estates, so maybe 75% overall in the ward. And the people who we'd successfully canvassed were certainly voting. But I'm a bit uneasy about the overall turnout.

    The view of some Labour professionals was that Remain will win nationally, but not by the Populus margin - more like 52%. They believe that the Labour working-class vote had to some extent returned in the final days, after weeks of flirting with Leave.

    Make of that what you will - just one bit of the national jigsaw.


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    JennyFreemanJennyFreeman Posts: 488
    alex. said:

    What % of the vote does Remain need for the UK to become officially one of the most pro-EU countries in the union?

    About 20%
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820
    19:00 Man Stabbbed Outside Polling Station in West Yorkshire

    A Huddersfield polling station was closed by police this evening to “preserve a crime scene” after a man was stabbed in close proximity to the venue, a church.

    A spokesman for West Yorkshire police stressed to Breitbart London this evening that they didn’t believe the attack was related to the EU referendum. A 19 year old male has been arrested in relation to the attack, but Police refused to release any more details on the man.
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    BenedictWhiteBenedictWhite Posts: 1,944

    Source from a few hours ago, has said things have gotten better, Labour supporters will be Cameron's Blücher

    Or not. They may come out for Leave. We will see.
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    timmotimmo Posts: 1,469
    slade said:

    Never mind the referendum. There are local bye-elections tonight, including one in Sunningdale and Ascot. Conservative hold?

    UKIP gain?
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    saddened said:

    IPA, or a rather nice southern Rhone red?

    Should I Leave the beer in the fridge or should the wine Remain unopened?

    That is the question vexing me at present.

    As an added psychic two fingers I bought some items from the tiny " East European " section for the first time. It's arrival caused much muttering last year.

    They must go apoplectic in the curry and pasta aisle.
    I think the EU should just let us conquer Eastern Europe for a while, then peacefully withdraw and everyone would be perfectly happy. Or perhaps just ask them if they'd mind joining the Commonwealth? What's sauce for Mozambique is sauce for Poland.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,942
    When the dust settles, unless their polling is very very very wrong, I bet city boys have made killing on all of this. Legalised insider trading.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    timmo said:

    £ moving up strongly now approaching 1.49

    £ moving up strongly now approaching 1.49

    As much USD weakness as stg strength here
    The pound is reaching rather ridiculous heights unless the uncertainty of the vote has been depressing it for months. Surely it'll fall after the vote and everything's back to normal?
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,560
    Sean_F said:

    Does anyone have the data tables for today's populus poll?

    I note this: "What we reproduce here is a product of tighter quotas, including balancing our sample by social attitudes, perceived national identity, political interests and recent voting behaviour as well as by traditional political and demographic methods. These results also reflect not only people’s stated likelihood to vote but also their propensity to do so based on their characteristics as well as the underlying attitudes of those who are likely to have voted but who have not stated a referendum preference.

    The actual result will be known soon enough, but by publishing our prediction we hope to demonstrate that with careful quotas and statistical modelling online polling can be robustly representative of the voting public when it comes to measuring sensitive political issues."

    It sounds like quite a lot of adjustments to me.

    By a remarkable coincidence, they are all likely to be adjustments that favour Remain.
    If it's an Andrew Cooper special, that gives me confidence that the result will be closer than that.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,479
    bazzer said:

    I feel a sell of turnout at 72.75 with spreadex is a very appealing bet - I could see turnut ending up significantly lower, even slightly below GE levels. I struggle to see much downside to this bet - is there realistically any chance of an extremely high turnout of around 80% given certainty to vote figures in polling and rain etc in London? I feel very unlikely.

    I just sold at 73 on SpreadEx at a gutsy 300 quid a point
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    Source from a few hours ago, has said things have gotten better, Labour supporters will be Cameron's Blücher

    Or not. They may come out for Leave. We will see.
    Is TSE now claiming the WWC in the NW has turned out in large numbers and voted Remain lol?
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    Won't make it. Still 45 minutes to go, at least. I only hope Remain doesn't lose by one!!!

    Meanwhile ...

    https://twitter.com/herald_editor/status/746063635655581697

    Pehaps postal votes are not so bad after all.
    I thought we were being told it was way, way down! Honestly, who can you believe?
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    TudorRoseTudorRose Posts: 1,662

    Source from a few hours ago, has said things have gotten better, Labour supporters will be Cameron's Blücher

    Cameron tomorrow morning in Downing St

    'I'm delighted that the Scottish people have decided in this referendum that they wish to stay inside the European Union. I know many of them don't like me but all I can do is thank you from the bottom of my heart for saving my political career. Now we must get on and solve the English question. Why did so many of them want to leave the EU?'
    To be followed by him carried shoulder-high through the City of London!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,103
    If Populus has adjusted to GE stuff then they're wrong. I'm very confident my sub 54.5 bet will land
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    Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 56,560
    High turnout is good for result legitimacy either way.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,479

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So how much do we think Remain has won this by?

    15-20% 60/40.

    It's going to be a brutal night and long term the Pound is back in peril.
    If this was a referendum on the Euro it would be 80-90% No
    Give it a decade of "softening up" and we'll talk again...
    I seriously doubt this.
    The only way we would be convinced to join the Euro is if the Eurozone had a decade of massively outperfoming the UK economically.

    Is GIN1138 predicting that?
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    FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,099
    Where is Southam trying to get to?
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    NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,386
    By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.
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    weejonnieweejonnie Posts: 3,820

    Source from a few hours ago, has said things have gotten better, Labour supporters will be Cameron's Blücher

    Or not. They may come out for Leave. We will see.
    Depends whether they will toe the Labour line preached to them or say 'FU - you don't know what you're talking about'.
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 54,479

    rcs1000 said:

    Just back from voting in leafy Hampstead.

    According to the teller, it had been "busy", but no indication of whether turnout was above GE levels or not. I passed a woman wearing a "Remain" t-shirt on the way in, and two or three of the voters (out of perhaps 10) were wearing "In" badges, but that's to be expected in NW3.

    Disappointed. I was hoping there would be a fair few people in Hampstead who'd want to get out of the EU and turn London into the new Singapore.
    Those that have are more afraid of losing it, than of making more.

    It's why Martin Lewis voted Remain.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,942
    weejonnie said:
    Wil she actually venture out of her right on safe space to actually vote?
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    Sean_FSean_F Posts: 36,156
    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So how much do we think Remain has won this by?

    15-20% 60/40.

    It's going to be a brutal night and long term the Pound is back in peril.
    If this was a referendum on the Euro it would be 80-90% No
    Give it a decade of "softening up" and we'll talk again...
    I can't see the Tories advocating joining the Euro or Schengen. But, most of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is pretty content with the status quo and the direction of travel. I imagine most Conservative voters are not.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,942
    edited June 2016

    Where is Southam trying to get to?

    Home, which as his handle suggests is Leamington Spa way.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,103
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So how much do we think Remain has won this by?

    15-20% 60/40.

    It's going to be a brutal night and long term the Pound is back in peril.
    If this was a referendum on the Euro it would be 80-90% No
    Give it a decade of "softening up" and we'll talk again...
    I seriously doubt this.
    The only way we would be convinced to join the Euro is if the Eurozone had a decade of massively outperfoming the UK economically.

    Is GIN1138 predicting that?
    What price would you be prepared to permanently trade £ for € at ?

    1999 start was 1.42 I think.
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    PongPong Posts: 4,693

    By the way, the professionals expect to have a clear impression of the trend by midnight from eyeball samples. And to be clear, they do think that part of the WWC vote will be for Leave - just not as much as two weeks ago.

    Nick, if you don't mind me asking, what's your hunch on overall turnout?
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    Source from a few hours ago, has said things have gotten better, Labour supporters will be Cameron's Blücher

    Or perhaps:
    Cameron = Ramsay Bolton
    Boris = Jon Snow
    and the Labour Supporters are actually Farage = Littlefinger's army?
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    PAWPAW Posts: 1,074
    edited June 2016
    SouthamObserver - It is only one vote - when I moved to Edgbaston in 2002 (I think) and voted conservative in the local council election - by one vote the conservative councillor got in and by one councillor the Labour party lost control on Birmingham council...
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    steve_garnersteve_garner Posts: 1,019
    Where's Harry Hayfield when you need him?
    slade said:

    Never mind the referendum. There are local bye-elections tonight, including one in Sunningdale and Ascot. Conservative hold?

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    £ moving up strongly now approaching 1.49

    Will VWs be cheaper by Monday?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,783

    Very quick as outside a polling station. This wwc had turnout in 30s in 2015 now we are past 69% and still they come. Driffield reports 88% turnout an hour ago. These are Leave heartlands. If and it's a big if this holds provincial England is voting in massive numbers.

    Anyway back to gotv!

    Those numbers are almost unbelievable when you think postal votes are on top.
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    TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 115,116

    Source from a few hours ago, has said things have gotten better, Labour supporters will be Cameron's Blücher

    Or not. They may come out for Leave. We will see.
    Is TSE now claiming the WWC in the NW has turned out in large numbers and voted Remain lol?
    No, don't be dense
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    John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    rcs1000 said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So how much do we think Remain has won this by?

    15-20% 60/40.

    It's going to be a brutal night and long term the Pound is back in peril.
    If this was a referendum on the Euro it would be 80-90% No
    Give it a decade of "softening up" and we'll talk again...
    I seriously doubt this.
    The only way we would be convinced to join the Euro is if the Eurozone had a decade of massively outperfoming the UK economically.

    Is GIN1138 predicting that?
    I just don't see the EU in the same malevolent, conniving light as GIN. It's just not very good at just about everything.

    If they completed all the necessary actions required for a proper monetary union, we might be inclined to consider it, especially if, as you say, they're going gangbusters while we're in some kind of perpetual slump.
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    alex.alex. Posts: 4,658
    Sean_F said:

    GIN1138 said:

    HYUFD said:

    GIN1138 said:

    So how much do we think Remain has won this by?

    15-20% 60/40.

    It's going to be a brutal night and long term the Pound is back in peril.
    If this was a referendum on the Euro it would be 80-90% No
    Give it a decade of "softening up" and we'll talk again...
    I can't see the Tories advocating joining the Euro or Schengen. But, most of the Parliamentary Conservative Party is pretty content with the status quo and the direction of travel. I imagine most Conservative voters are not.
    To paraphrase a famous quote, they'll just have to get some more voters then ;)
This discussion has been closed.